FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeASUN

West Florida def. UNCW 3–0

(25-20, 25-15, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNCW	20	15	21	0
W FLA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

W FLA above 50 · UNCW below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to UNCW — set 1, UNCW 15-13 W FLA. UNCW ace on Team. W FLA win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNCW 1.3%98.7% W FLA

UNCW wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

West Florida wins

3-0

71.4%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

4.5%

UNCW break %: 36.0% vs this opp
W FLA break %: 53.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
UNCW serverAce+0.6%
UNCW ace on Team
Set 1 · UNCW 15-13 W FLA · UNCW 2% → 3%
02
Elaina MurphyKill+0.6%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 1 · UNCW 18-17 W FLA · UNCW 2% → 3%
03
Gabi MoultonKill+0.6%
Kill by Gabi Moulton (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 1 · UNCW 18-19 W FLA · W FLA 98% → 98%
04
Sam VandaKill+0.5%
Kill by Sam Vanda (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 1 · UNCW 17-16 W FLA · UNCW 2% → 3%
05
Elaina MurphyKill+0.5%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 1 · UNCW 19-19 W FLA · UNCW 2% → 2%
06
Nadia WasilewskiAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Nadia Wasilewski
Set 1 · UNCW 19-21 W FLA · W FLA 98% → 99%
07
Emily BreazealeAttack error+0.5%
Emily Breazeale stuffed by Courtney Graham & Nadia Wasilewski
Set 1 · UNCW 14-13 W FLA · UNCW 2% → 2%
08
Lauren LewisAttack error+0.5%
Lauren Lewis stuffed by Delaney Hanowell
Set 1 · UNCW 19-20 W FLA · W FLA 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNCWaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sam VandaOH	3	10	7	30	.100	0	4	2	9	1	0	1	0.5	14.5
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	3	5	14	-.143	1	2	0	3	3	0	0	0	5
14Courtney GrahamMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	2	5
18Lauren Lewis	3	3	6	11	-.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	2	2	8	.000	21	1	2	7	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	2	0	3	11	-.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	8	2	0	0	0	1
8Meredith KeeferOPP	2	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
5Morgan EsmieDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	0	1
12Lilly SullivanMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		26	27	97	-.010	24	9	8	34	9	3	6	6	56

West Floridahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Delaney HanowellMB	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	3	0	1	6	4	9
12Gabi MoultonS	3	6	1	14	.357	11	2	0	6	0	0	0	0	8
20Talya SampsonOH	3	5	7	17	-.118	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	7.5
18Kumara FlanagainOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
11Aniston CochranMB	3	5	0	7	.714	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Emily BreazealeOH	3	2	4	16	-.125	0	1	1	9	2	0	0	0	3
8Camryn BrooksL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	0	5	1	0	0	0	2
6Madalyn MireL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	2	1	8	2	0	0	0	2
5Karyna WerleyS	3	1	0	2	.500	9	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
4Kennedy PlummerOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
2Madison JoynerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	17	87	.149	25	9	2	39	9	3	14	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 UNCW · W FLA 7

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 UNCWW FLA 7

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 UNCWW FLA 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 UNCWW FLA 7

Bars above the line = West Florida leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNCW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%6/17	50%6/12
2	60%6/10	33%3/9
3	67%6/9	33%3/9
4	38%5/13	60%9/15
5	83%5/6	17%1/6
6	22%4/18	29%2/7
All	44%32/73	41%24/58

West Florida

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	75%15/20
2	55%6/11	60%9/15
3	75%6/8	45%5/11
4	43%6/14	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	55%6/11
6	80%4/5	50%4/8
All	59%34/58	56%41/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	UNCW-W FLA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Madalyn Mire	+0.1
2	1-1	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
3	1-2	UNCW	W FLA	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.1
4	2-2	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Anna Harney	+0.2
5	2-3	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Gabi Moulton	+0.1
6	3-3	W FLA	UNCW×3	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
7	4-3	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Gabi Moulton		+0.3
8	5-3	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Camryn Brooks	+0.3
9	5-4	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Gabi Moulton	set Karyna Werley	+0.2
10	6-4	W FLA	UNCW	Attack err	Talya Sampson	blk Gaby Zovko	+0.3
11	7-4	UNCW	UNCW	Bad set	Karyna Werley		+0.4
12	7-5	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Gaby Zovko		+0.3
13	8-5	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
14	8-6	UNCW	W FLA×7	Kill	Gabi Moulton	set Karyna Werley	+0.3
15	8-7	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.3
16	8-8	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.3
17	8-9	W FLA	W FLA×7	Ace	W FLA server	aced Elaina Murphy	+0.3
18	8-10	W FLA	W FLA×7	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Gabi Moulton	+0.2
19	8-11	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.2
20	8-12	W FLA	W FLA×7	Ace	W FLA server	aced Elaina Murphy	+0.1
21	9-12	W FLA	UNCW×4	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
22	10-12	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Talya Sampson	blk Lauren Lewis, Sam Vanda	+0.2
23	11-12	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Team	+0.3
24	12-12	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Madalyn Mire	+0.4
25	12-13	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Delaney Hanowell, Kumara Flanagain	+0.3
26	13-13	W FLA	UNCW×3	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.3
27	14-13	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Emily Breazeale	blk Courtney Graham, Nadia Wasilewski	+0.5
28	15-13	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Team	+0.6
29	15-14	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Delaney Hanowell, Kumara Flanagain	+0.4
30	15-15	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Madalyn Mire	+0.5
31	16-15	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Elaina Murphy	+0.5
32	16-16	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Gabi Moulton	+0.4
33	17-16	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.5
34	17-17	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Karyna Werley	+0.5
35	18-17	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.6
36	18-18	UNCW	W FLA	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.5
37	18-19	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Gabi Moulton	set Gaby Zovko	+0.6
38	19-19	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.5
39	19-20	UNCW	W FLA×4	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Delaney Hanowell	+0.5
40	19-21	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.5
41	19-22	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Talya Sampson	+0.4
42	19-23	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Gabi Moulton	+0.2
43	20-23	W FLA	UNCW	Attack err	Talya Sampson		+0.1
44	20-24	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Madalyn Mire	+0.1
45	20-25	W FLA	W FLA	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	W FLA	W FLA×3	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Gabi Moulton	+0.1
2	0-2	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Talya Sampson	+0.1
3	0-3	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski	blk Delaney Hanowell, Talya Sampson	+0.1
4	1-3	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
5	1-4	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Courtney Graham		+0.1
6	1-5	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	W FLA server	aced Anna Harney	+0.1
7	2-5	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
8	3-5	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Madalyn Mire	+0.1
9	3-6	UNCW	W FLA×3	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.1
10	3-7	W FLA	W FLA×3	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Madalyn Mire	+0.1
11	3-8	W FLA	W FLA×3	Ace	W FLA server	aced Morgan Esmie	+0.0
12	4-8	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
13	4-9	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Gabi Moulton	+0.0
14	4-10	W FLA	W FLA	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.0
15	5-10	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
16	5-11	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Karyna Werley	+0.0
17	6-11	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
18	7-11	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Emily Breazeale	+0.1
19	7-12	UNCW	W FLA	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
20	7-13	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Gabi Moulton	set Talya Sampson	+0.0
21	8-13	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
22	8-14	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Karyna Werley	+0.0
23	8-15	W FLA	W FLA	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Delaney Hanowell, Kumara Flanagain	+0.0
24	9-15	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
25	9-16	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.0
26	9-17	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Madalyn Mire	+0.0
27	10-17	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
28	11-17	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Delaney Hanowell	blk Courtney Graham	+0.0
29	11-18	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Gabi Moulton	+0.0
30	11-19	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Gabi Moulton	+0.0
31	12-19	W FLA	UNCW	Attack err	Emily Breazeale	blk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham	+0.0
32	13-19	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Emily Breazeale		+0.0
33	13-20	UNCW	W FLA	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
34	13-21	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Karyna Werley	+0.0
35	14-21	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
36	14-22	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Karyna Werley		+0.0
37	15-22	W FLA	UNCW	Serve err	W FLA server		+0.0
38	15-23	UNCW	W FLA×3	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Karyna Werley	+0.0
39	15-24	W FLA	W FLA×3	Ace	W FLA server	aced Team	+0.0
40	15-25	W FLA	W FLA×3	Ace	W FLA server	aced Sam Vanda	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Kumara Flanagain		+0.1
2	1-1	UNCW	W FLA×4	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
3	1-2	W FLA	W FLA×4	Bad set	Gaby Zovko		+0.0
4	1-3	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.0
5	1-4	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Delaney Hanowell, Kumara Flanagain	+0.0
6	2-4	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
7	3-4	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Kumara Flanagain		+0.0
8	3-5	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Gabi Moulton		+0.0
9	4-5	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
10	4-6	UNCW	W FLA	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
11	5-6	W FLA	UNCW×3	Attack err	Talya Sampson		+0.0
12	6-6	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Aniston Cochran	+0.1
13	7-6	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Emily Breazeale		+0.1
14	7-7	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Gabi Moulton	set Karyna Werley	+0.1
15	8-7	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko		+0.1
16	8-8	UNCW	W FLA	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.1
17	9-8	W FLA	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
18	10-8	UNCW	UNCW	Bad set	Emily Breazeale		+0.1
19	10-9	UNCW	W FLA×3	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Karyna Werley	+0.1
20	10-10	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Elaina Murphy	blk Kumara Flanagain, Delaney Hanowell	+0.1
21	10-11	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.1
22	11-11	W FLA	UNCW×3	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
23	12-11	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Delaney Hanowell	blk Lauren Lewis	+0.1
24	13-11	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Anna Harney	+0.1
25	13-12	UNCW	W FLA×4	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.1
26	13-13	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Gabi Moulton	+0.1
27	13-14	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.1
28	13-15	W FLA	W FLA×4	Ace	W FLA server	aced Team	+0.1
29	14-15	W FLA	UNCW	Attack err	Kumara Flanagain		+0.1
30	14-16	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Gabi Moulton	+0.1
31	14-17	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	W FLA server	aced Elaina Murphy	+0.1
32	15-17	W FLA	UNCW	Serve err	W FLA server		+0.1
33	16-17	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
34	16-18	UNCW	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Gabi Moulton	+0.1
35	17-18	W FLA	UNCW×5	Attack err	Talya Sampson		+0.1
36	18-18	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Talya Sampson		+0.2
37	19-18	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Talya Sampson		+0.2
38	20-18	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Emily Breazeale	+0.3
39	21-18	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Kennedy Plummer	+0.3
40	21-19	UNCW	W FLA×7	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.2
41	21-20	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+0.2
42	21-21	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.2
43	21-22	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Gaby Zovko		+0.2
44	21-23	W FLA	W FLA×7	Attack err	Courtney Graham	blk Aniston Cochran, Kennedy Plummer	+0.2
45	21-24	W FLA	W FLA×7	Ace	W FLA server	aced Anna Harney	+0.1
46	21-25	W FLA	W FLA×7	Kill	Kennedy Plummer	set Karyna Werley	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.