FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeBIG-SOUTH

Winthrop def. UNCW 3–0

(25-13, 26-24, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNCW	13	24	21	0
WINTHR	25	26	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WINTHR above 50 · UNCW below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Winthrop — set 2, UNCW 24-24 WINTHR. Winthrop ace on Team. WINTHR win probability 88% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNCW 9.7%90.3% WINTHR

UNCW wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.5%

Winthrop wins

3-0

44.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.8%

UNCW break %: 38.0% vs this opp
WINTHR break %: 47.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
WINTHR serverAce+4.2%
Winthrop ace on Team
Set 2 · UNCW 24-24 WINTHR · WINTHR 88% → 92%
02
Meredith KeeferKill+3.5%
Kill by Meredith Keefer (set by Anna Harney)
Set 2 · UNCW 24-22 WINTHR · UNCW 10% → 13%
03
Paige BennettKill+3.4%
Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Lexi Thatcher)
Set 2 · UNCW 24-25 WINTHR · WINTHR 92% → 96%
04
Paige BennettKill+2.7%
Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Alyah Cadavid)
Set 2 · UNCW 24-26 WINTHR · WINTHR 96% → 98%
05
KeAra BowenKill+2.5%
Kill by KeAra Bowen (set by Addison Torain)
Set 2 · UNCW 22-22 WINTHR · WINTHR 90% → 93%
06
Lauren LewisKill+2.4%
Kill by Lauren Lewis (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 2 · UNCW 23-22 WINTHR · UNCW 7% → 10%
07
Meredith KeeferKill+2.2%
Kill by Meredith Keefer (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 2 · UNCW 22-19 WINTHR · UNCW 11% → 13%
08
Teagan SychterzKill+2.0%
Kill by Teagan Sychterz (set by Lexi Thatcher)
Set 2 · UNCW 22-21 WINTHR · WINTHR 88% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNCWaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	7	0	15	.467	21	1	2	7	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
14Courtney GrahamMB	3	6	0	10	.600	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
3Meredith KeeferOPP	3	7	4	23	.130	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	7
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	5	3	22	.091	3	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	5
18Lauren LewisMB	3	2	0	7	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	3	2	0	10	.200	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Lilly SullivanMB	3	2	0	5	.400	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
17Addi VaughnS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	8	4	0	0	0	0
5Morgan EsmieDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
1Sam VandaOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	9	95	.232	29	3	5	38	9	2	4	4	58

Winthrophome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7KeAra BowenOPP	3	15	3	23	.522	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	17
5Paige BennettOH	3	13	6	34	.206	2	1	1	6	0	0	0	14
23Teagan SychterzMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	2	2	3	0	2	1	11
9Giselle LittleMB	3	7	3	17	.235	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	8.5
4Lexi ThatcherS	3	2	0	9	.222	37	1	1	11	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Alyah CadavidDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	2	5	0	0	0	2
12Reece RhoadsOH	3	8	2	19	.316	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8
14Addison TorainDS	3	0	0	0	–	6	2	1	7	3	0	0	2
6Lindsay LangnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	9	0	0	0	1
Team totals		53	16	116	.319	49	9	8	47	3	10	5	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 UNCW · WINTHR 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 UNCWWINTHR 5

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 6 UNCWWINTHR 5

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 UNCWWINTHR 6

Bars above the line = Winthrop leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNCW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	13%1/8
2	43%6/14	46%6/13
3	55%6/11	14%1/7
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	42%5/12	57%8/14
6	63%5/8	44%4/9
All	47%35/74	38%23/60

Winthrop

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	63%10/16
2	55%6/11	54%7/13
3	67%6/9	40%4/10
4	46%6/13	50%6/12
5	67%6/9	50%6/12
6	56%5/9	55%6/11
All	62%37/60	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	UNCW-WINTHR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.7
2	1-1	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.8
3	1-2	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.7
4	1-3	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Alyah Cadavid	+0.9
5	1-4	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Anna Harney	+0.8
6	2-4	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.6
7	2-5	UNCW	WINTHR×5	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.6
8	2-6	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.7
9	2-7	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.5
10	2-8	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Kill	Lexi Thatcher	set Lindsay Langner	+0.4
11	2-9	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
12	3-9	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
13	3-10	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.2
14	3-11	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Attack err	Elaina Murphy	blk Teagan Sychterz, Lexi Thatcher	+0.2
15	3-12	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Team	+0.1
16	4-12	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko		+0.1
17	5-12	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Addison Torain	+0.2
18	5-13	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
19	6-13	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
20	6-14	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
21	6-15	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
22	6-16	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
23	7-16	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.0
24	7-17	UNCW	WINTHR	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
25	8-17	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
26	8-18	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.0
27	9-18	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.0
28	10-18	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Paige Bennett		+0.1
29	10-19	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Lexi Thatcher	set Lindsay Langner	+0.1
30	11-19	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
31	11-20	UNCW	WINTHR×4	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.0
32	11-21	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.0
33	11-22	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Lilly Sullivan	+0.0
34	11-23	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.0
35	12-23	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Lilly Sullivan	+0.0
36	13-23	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
37	13-24	UNCW	WINTHR	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
38	13-25	WINTHR	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Addison Torain	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	WINTHR	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Addison Torain	+0.7
2	1-1	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.5
3	1-2	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.5
4	2-2	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.6
5	2-3	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.5
6	3-3	WINTHR	UNCW	Attack err	Paige Bennett	blk Gaby Zovko	+0.6
7	3-4	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.5
8	3-5	WINTHR	WINTHR	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Anna Harney	+0.6
9	4-5	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Morgan Esmie	+0.5
10	5-5	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Giselle Little		+0.8
11	5-6	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Paige Bennett	+0.6
12	6-6	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.6
13	7-6	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Lauren Lewis	+1.0
14	7-7	UNCW	WINTHR	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.7
15	8-7	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.8
16	8-8	UNCW	WINTHR×5	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.7
17	8-9	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.9
18	8-10	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Elaina Murphy	+0.8
19	8-11	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.7
20	8-12	WINTHR	WINTHR×5	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Anna Harney	+0.5
21	9-12	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
22	9-13	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.4
23	9-14	WINTHR	WINTHR	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	blk KeAra Bowen, Giselle Little	+0.4
24	10-14	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.3
25	10-15	UNCW	WINTHR	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.3
26	11-15	WINTHR	UNCW×3	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Elaina Murphy	+0.3
27	12-15	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Elaina Murphy	+0.5
28	13-15	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Paige Bennett		+0.7
29	13-16	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.6
30	14-16	WINTHR	UNCW×6	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Elaina Murphy	+0.6
31	15-16	UNCW	UNCW×6	Attack err	Reece Rhoads		+1.0
32	16-16	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.3
33	17-16	UNCW	UNCW×6	Ace	UNCW server	aced Addison Torain	+1.6
34	18-16	UNCW	UNCW×6	Attack err	Paige Bennett		+1.8
35	19-16	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Meredith Keefer	+1.8
36	19-17	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+1.0
37	19-18	WINTHR	WINTHR	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+1.6
38	20-18	WINTHR	UNCW	Attack err	Teagan Sychterz	blk Lauren Lewis	+1.6
39	20-19	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+1.3
40	21-19	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.8
41	22-19	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+2.2
42	22-20	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+1.0
43	22-21	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Lexi Thatcher	+2.0
44	22-22	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Addison Torain	+2.5
45	23-22	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+2.4
46	24-22	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Anna Harney	+3.5
47	24-23	UNCW	WINTHR×4	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Addison Torain	+1.5
48	24-24	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Team	+4.2
49	24-25	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+3.4
50	24-26	WINTHR	WINTHR×4	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Alyah Cadavid	+2.7
Set 3
1	0-1	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.2
2	0-2	WINTHR	WINTHR	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	blk KeAra Bowen, Giselle Little	+0.3
3	1-2	WINTHR	UNCW×5	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
4	2-2	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Paige Bennett		+0.3
5	3-2	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Giselle Little		+0.4
6	4-2	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	KeAra Bowen		+0.5
7	5-2	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	KeAra Bowen		+0.5
8	5-3	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
9	6-3	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
10	6-4	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
11	6-5	WINTHR	WINTHR	Attack err	Addi Vaughn		+0.4
12	7-5	WINTHR	UNCW	Serve err	WINTHR server		+0.4
13	8-5	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Reece Rhoads	blk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham	+0.6
14	8-6	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.4
15	9-6	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
16	9-7	UNCW	WINTHR×6	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Addison Torain	+0.4
17	9-8	WINTHR	WINTHR×6	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Addison Torain	+0.5
18	9-9	WINTHR	WINTHR×6	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Meredith Keefer	+0.5
19	9-10	WINTHR	WINTHR×6	Kill	Teagan Sychterz	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
20	9-11	WINTHR	WINTHR×6	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.4
21	9-12	WINTHR	WINTHR×6	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Paige Bennett	+0.3
22	10-12	WINTHR	UNCW×3	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Reece Rhoads	+0.2
23	11-12	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Teagan Sychterz		+0.4
24	12-12	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	KeAra Bowen		+0.5
25	12-13	UNCW	WINTHR	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.4
26	12-14	WINTHR	WINTHR	Kill	Teagan Sychterz		+0.4
27	13-14	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.3
28	13-15	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	KeAra Bowen	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
29	13-16	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	blk KeAra Bowen, Giselle Little	+0.4
30	13-17	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Ace	WINTHR server	aced Anna Harney	+0.3
31	14-17	WINTHR	UNCW	Attack err	Paige Bennett	blk Lauren Lewis, Nadia Wasilewski	+0.2
32	15-17	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Giselle Little		+0.4
33	15-18	UNCW	WINTHR×3	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
34	15-19	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.3
35	15-20	WINTHR	WINTHR×3	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.2
36	16-20	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
37	16-21	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Giselle Little	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
38	17-21	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
39	17-22	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Paige Bennett	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
40	18-22	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
41	18-23	UNCW	WINTHR	Kill	Reece Rhoads	set Lexi Thatcher	+0.1
42	19-23	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
43	20-23	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Addison Torain	+0.1
44	20-24	UNCW	WINTHR	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.2
45	21-24	WINTHR	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
46	21-25	UNCW	WINTHR	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	blk KeAra Bowen, Teagan Sychterz	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.