Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026 · Neutral site

UNCW def. N.C. Central 3–1

UNCW beat N.C. Central 3-1 (20-25, 25-13, 25-23, 25-20) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site. UNCW's Nadia Wasilewski led with 16 kills, and Anna Harney added 11 digs.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
UNCW202525253
NC CEN251323201

Win probability

N.C. Central above 50 · UNCW below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.8% UNCWrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.8% to UNCW — set 3, UNCW 25-23 NC CEN. Kill by Sam Vanda (set by Gaby Zovko). NC CEN win probability 17% → 10%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNCW 82.9%17.1% NC CEN

UNCW wins

3-0
34.6%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
17.4%

N.C. Central wins

3-0
2.6%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
8.9%
UNCW break %
46.9% vs this opp
NC CEN break %
39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sam VandaKill+6.8%

    Kill by Sam Vanda (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 3 · UNCW 25-23 NC CEN · UNCW 83% → 90%

  2. 02
    N.C. CentralAce+6.2%

    N.C. Central ace on Sam Vanda

    Set 3 · UNCW 21-21 NC CEN · NC CEN 21% → 27%

  3. 03
    Kayla RileyAttack error+6.2%

    Attack error by Kayla Riley

    Set 3 · UNCW 23-21 NC CEN · UNCW 78% → 84%

  4. 04
    Aniah BassAttack error+5.3%

    Attack error by Aniah Bass

    Set 3 · UNCW 24-22 NC CEN · UNCW 81% → 86%

  5. 05

    Kill by Courtney Graham (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 3 · UNCW 22-21 NC CEN · UNCW 73% → 78%

  6. 06
    Meredith KeeferAttack error+4.5%

    Attack error by Meredith Keefer

    Set 3 · UNCW 17-17 NC CEN · NC CEN 22% → 26%

  7. 07
    Aniah BassKill+4.3%

    Kill by Aniah Bass (set by Breylan Fairley)

    Set 3 · UNCW 21-20 NC CEN · NC CEN 17% → 21%

  8. 08

    Kill by Courtney Graham (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 3 · UNCW 19-17 NC CEN · UNCW 77% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UNCWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414332.34410071010.514.5
48214.4290122006312
47111.54542011000429
45520.00000030010.55.5
4329.111112710004
4011-1.000000101011
416126.57700000010.516.5
4215.20010010010.52.5
4104.250000000001
4001.000012800001
4000–4101120001
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5616123.3254947506114895
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413948.0830228000015
415634.2650002000015
49224.29200020010.59.5
46210.400102201017
43210.10000010010.53.5
4000–1823500002
43031.0001900400003
4000–012420001
4000–0101010001
4001.000102300000
4000–500200000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals4921130.2154461143412281

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UNCW · NC CEN 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 6 UNCWNC CEN 5

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 6 UNCWNC CEN 2

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 UNCWNC CEN 4

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 3 UNCWNC CEN 2

Bars above the line = N.C. Central leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UNCW

No clean sets to split.

N.C. Central

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#UNCW-NC CENSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NC CENNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Jayla Egerton+1.7
21-1NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+1.2
31-2UNCWNC CENAttack errCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.3
42-2NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.2
52-3UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+1.4
63-3NC CENUNCWKillGaby Zovko+1.3
74-3UNCWUNCWKillGaby Zovko+1.6
84-4UNCWNC CEN×5KillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+1.3
94-5NC CENNC CEN×5KillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+1.9
104-6NC CENNC CEN×5Attack errLauren Lewis+2.0
114-7NC CENNC CEN×5KillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.1
124-8NC CENNC CEN×5KillJayla Egerton+2.2
135-8NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.4
146-8UNCWUNCWAttack errTalia Emmen+2.0
156-9UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+1.8
166-10NC CENNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+2.3
177-10NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+1.4
187-11UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+1.8
197-12NC CENNC CENKillLusiana Damuni+2.2
208-12NC CENUNCWKillMeredith Keefer+1.3
218-13UNCWNC CENAttack errMeredith Keeferset Gaby Zovko+1.8
228-14NC CENNC CENAttack errMeredith Keefer+2.0
239-14NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+1.1
249-15UNCWNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+1.6
259-16NC CENNC CENAttack errSam Vanda+1.6
2610-16NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+0.8
2710-17UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.2
2811-17NC CENUNCW×6BlockedAllyson Rouseblk Lauren Lewis+0.7
2912-17UNCWUNCW×6KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.3
3013-17UNCWUNCW×6KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.7
3114-17UNCWUNCW×6Attack errTalia Emmen+2.1
3215-17UNCWUNCW×6KillElaina Murphyset Anna Harney+2.5
3316-17UNCWUNCW×6KillNadia Wasilewskiset Anna Harney+2.8
3416-18UNCWNC CEN×3KillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+2.6
3516-19NC CEN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
3616-20NC CENNC CEN×3AceN.C. Central+3.0
3717-20NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.5
3817-21UNCWNC CEN×3KillTalia Emmen+2.3
3917-22NC CENNC CEN×3Attack errNadia Wasilewski+2.2
4017-23NC CENNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+1.2
4118-23NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+0.3
4218-24UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.7
4319-24NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+0.1
4420-24UNCWUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Anna Harney+0.4
4520-25UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.7
Set 2
10-1UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+2.1
21-1NC CENUNCW×5Serve errN.C. Central+1.9
32-1UNCW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
43-1UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCWaced Alex Fuller+2.2
54-1UNCWUNCW×5BlockedTalia Emmenblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+2.0
65-1UNCWUNCW×5BlockedTalia Emmenblk Courtney Graham, Gaby Zovko+1.7
75-2UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+1.3
86-2NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.3
96-3UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+1.3
106-4NC CENNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+2.0
117-4NC CENUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Talia Emmen+1.6
128-4UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.8
138-5UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmen+1.3
149-5NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.4
1510-5UNCWUNCWAttack errKayla Riley+1.5
1610-6UNCWNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+1.0
1710-7NC CENNC CENAttack errMeredith Keefer+1.8
1811-7NC CENUNCW×6KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.5
1912-7UNCWUNCW×6KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.6
2013-7UNCWUNCW×6KillNadia Wasilewskiset Anna Harney+1.2
2114-7UNCWUNCW×6KillMeredith Keeferset Gaby Zovko+0.8
2215-7UNCW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
2316-7UNCWUNCW×6KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.3
2416-8UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.2
2517-8NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+0.2
2617-9UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+0.2
2717-10NC CEN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
2818-10NC CENUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Jayla Egerton+0.3
2918-11UNCWNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+0.2
3019-11NC CENUNCW×3Serve errN.C. Central+0.3
3120-11UNCWUNCW×3BlockedTalia Emmenblk Lily Goyer, Gaby Zovko+0.2
3221-11UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Alex Fuller+0.1
3321-12UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley·
3422-12NC CENUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Sam Vanda·
3523-12UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko·
3624-12UNCWUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko·
3724-13UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW·
3825-13NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko·
Set 3
11-0NC CENUNCW×3Serve errN.C. Central+1.7
22-0UNCWUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.1
33-0UNCWUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.9
43-1UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.5
54-1NC CENUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
64-2UNCWNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+1.5
75-2NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+1.5
86-2UNCW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
96-3UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Hailey Gibbons+1.3
107-3NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.3
117-4UNCWNC CENKillLusiana Damuni+1.3
128-4NC CENUNCWKillMeredith Keeferset Gaby Zovko+1.3
139-4UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Isabella Rodriguez+1.5
149-5UNCWNC CENKillKayla Riley+1.0
1510-5NC CENUNCWServe errN.C. Central+1.1
1611-5UNCWUNCWAceUNCW+1.2
1711-6UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Hailey Gibbons+0.8
1811-7NC CENNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+1.3
1912-7NC CENUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.2
2013-7UNCWUNCWAttack errPeyton Jenkins+1.2
2113-8UNCWNC CEN×4Attack errElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.7
2213-9NC CENNC CEN×4BlockedElaina Murphyblk Peyton Jenkins, Aniah Bass+1.3
2313-10NC CENNC CEN×4AceN.C. Centralaced Anna Harney+1.8
2413-11NC CENNC CEN×4Attack errCourtney Graham+2.4
2514-11NC CENUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Gaby Zovko+2.0
2614-12UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+1.9
2715-12NC CENUNCWKillMeredith Keeferset Gaby Zovko+2.0
2815-13UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.9
2916-13NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Lily Goyer+2.1
3017-13UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.3
3117-14UNCWNC CEN×4BlockedLily Goyerblk Allyson Rouse+1.4
3217-15NC CENNC CEN×4AceN.C. Central+2.6
3317-16NC CENNC CEN×4AceN.C. Centralaced Anna Harney+3.5
3417-17NC CENNC CEN×4Attack errMeredith Keefer+4.5
3518-17NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+3.5
3619-17UNCWUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+4.2
3719-18UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+3.0
3820-18NC CENUNCWAttack errKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+3.4
3921-18UNCWUNCWBlockedPeyton Jenkinsblk Courtney Graham, Meredith Keefer+3.6
4021-19UNCWNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+2.1
4121-20NC CENNC CEN×3KillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+4.3
4221-21NC CENNC CEN×3AceN.C. Centralaced Sam Vanda+6.2
4322-21NC CENUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+5.3
4423-21UNCWUNCWAttack errKayla Riley+6.2
4523-22UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+3.5
4624-22NC CENUNCWAttack errAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+5.3
4724-23UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+3.2
4825-23NC CENUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+6.8
Set 4
10-1UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.6
21-1NC CENUNCW×3Attack errKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+1.5
32-1UNCWUNCW×3BlockedTalia Emmenblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+1.9
43-1UNCWUNCW×3KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.7
53-2UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+1.3
63-3NC CENNC CENAttack errElaina Murphy+2.0
74-3NC CENUNCWKillGaby Zovko+1.5
84-4UNCWNC CENAttack errSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.6
95-4NC CENUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.5
106-4UNCWUNCW×3Attack errTalia Emmen+1.9
117-4UNCWUNCW×3KillMeredith Keefer+1.6
127-5UNCWNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+1.2
137-6NC CEN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.9
148-6NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.5
158-7UNCWNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+1.5
168-8NC CENNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Allyson Rouse+2.3
179-8NC CENUNCWKillMeredith Keeferset Elaina Murphy+1.7
1810-8UNCWUNCWAttack errKayla Riley+2.1
1910-9UNCWNC CENAttack errMeredith Keeferset Anna Harney+1.6
2011-9NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.6
2112-9UNCWUNCWAttack errTalia Emmen+1.9
2212-10UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Hailey Gibbons+1.4
2313-10NC CENUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
2414-10UNCWUNCWBlockedAniah Bassblk Courtney Graham, Elaina Murphy+1.6
2514-11UNCWNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+1.1
2615-11NC CENUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.2
2715-12UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+1.1
2815-13NC CENNC CENAttack errGaby Zovko+1.9
2916-13NC CENUNCWAttack errAllyson Rouseset Talia Emmen+1.6
3017-13UNCWUNCWAttack errTalia Emmen+1.7
3117-14UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Lusiana Damuni+1.1
3218-14NC CENUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+1.3
3319-14UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.3
3419-15UNCWNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Lusiana Damuni+0.7
3520-15NC CENUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+0.9
3621-15UNCWUNCWBlockedKayla Rileyblk Courtney Graham, Nadia Wasilewski+0.7
3721-16UNCWNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.3
3821-17NC CENNC CENAceN.C. Centralaced Elaina Murphy+0.7
3922-17NC CENUNCWKillMacon Butlerset Gaby Zovko+0.8
4022-18UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+0.5
4123-18NC CENUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.7
4223-19UNCWNC CENKillTalia Emmenset Breylan Fairley+0.3
4324-19NC CENUNCWKillCourtney Graham+0.6
4424-20UNCWNC CENServe errUNCW+0.2
4525-20NC CENUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.3

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).