UNCW at N.C. Central

Set	1*	2*	3*	Sets
UNCW	20	25	7	1
NC CEN	25	13	3	1

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

NC CEN above 50 · UNCW below

Biggest swing: 3.9% to N.C. Central — set 1, UNCW 16-19 NC CEN. Point N.C. Central (not logged in NCAA feed). NC CEN win probability 45% → 49%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNCW 63.7%36.3% NC CEN

UNCW wins

3-0

19.2%

3-1

24.4%

3-2

20.0%

N.C. Central wins

3-0

7.6%

3-1

13.1%

3-2

15.7%

UNCW break %: 45.2% vs this opp
NC CEN break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.9%
Point N.C. Central (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · UNCW 16-19 NC CEN · NC CEN 45% → 49%
02
Nadia WasilewskiKill+3.5%
Kill by Nadia Wasilewski (set by Anna Harney)
Set 1 · UNCW 16-17 NC CEN · UNCW 54% → 58%
03
NC CEN serverAce+3.3%
N.C. Central ace on TEAM
Set 1 · UNCW 16-20 NC CEN · NC CEN 49% → 53%
04
Talia EmmenKill+3.3%
Kill by Talia Emmen (set by Hailey Gibbons)
Set 1 · UNCW 16-18 NC CEN · NC CEN 42% → 45%
05
Elaina MurphyKill+3.0%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Anna Harney)
Set 1 · UNCW 15-17 NC CEN · UNCW 51% → 54%
06
Elaina MurphyKill+2.9%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 3 · UNCW 2-0 NC CEN · UNCW 63% → 66%
07
Elaina MurphyKill+2.8%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 3 · UNCW 3-0 NC CEN · UNCW 66% → 69%
08
Unlogged pointFeed gap+2.7%
Point UNCW (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · UNCW 2-1 NC CEN · UNCW 43% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNCWaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	10	0	17	.588	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	5	0	5	1.000	20	0	1	5	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
14Courtney GrahamMB	3	1	1	4	.000	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8Meredith KeeferOPP	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
1Sam VandaOH	3	1	1	5	.000	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
18Lauren LewisMB	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	3	11	1	16	.625	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
5Morgan EsmieDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
6Lily GoyerMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
2Macon ButlerOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Maris GrantS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Lilly SullivanMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Addi VaughnS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Lora ColeMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	7	60	.383	25	2	4	25	1	1	6	4	52

N.C. Centralhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	PTS
16Talia EmmenOH	3	8	5	25	.120	0	0	2	6	0	8
10Kayla RileyOH	3	8	1	14	.500	0	0	0	0	0	8
7Aniah BassOH	3	3	0	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	3
8Peyton JenkinsMB	3	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	3
3Allyson RouseMB	3	3	1	5	.400	0	0	1	1	0	3
6Breylan FairleyS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	3	2	0	0
13Lusiana DamuniS	3	2	0	2	1.000	12	0	0	2	0	2
1Isabella RodriguezDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	0	1
11Jayla EgertonDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	1	0	0
14Mya SmithOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Alex FullerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	3	2	0
4Hailey GibbonsDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0
2Morgan WingoMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Tabitha NewlinOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	7	65	.308	24	1	10	21	2	41

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 UNCW · NC CEN 5

Set 1*

20-25

Longest run 6 UNCWNC CEN 5

Set 2*

25-13

Longest run 6 UNCWNC CEN 2

Set 3*

7-3

Longest run 3 UNCWNC CEN 1

Bars above the line = N.C. Central leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

93 rallies

Rally log

#	UNCW-NC CEN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Jayla Egerton	+2.3
2	1-1	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.8
3	1-2	UNCW	NC CEN	Attack err	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+1.9
4	2-2	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.8
5	2-3	UNCW	NC CEN	Serve err	UNCW server		+1.9
6	3-3	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko		+1.9
7	4-3	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko		+2.4
8	4-4	UNCW	NC CEN×5	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.9
9	4-5	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.6
10	4-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+2.6
11	4-7	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.6
12	4-8	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Jayla Egerton		+2.5
13	5-8	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+1.7
14	6-8	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+2.5
15	6-9	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.2
16	6-10	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.6
17	7-10	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.8
18	7-11	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.1
19	7-12	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Lusiana Damuni		+2.4
20	8-12	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Meredith Keefer		+1.5
21	8-13	UNCW	NC CEN	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+1.9
22	8-14	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+2.1
23	9-14	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.2
24	9-15	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Breylan Fairley	+1.6
25	9-16	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+1.6
26	10-16	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
27	10-17	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.2
28	11-17	NC CEN	UNCW×6	Attack err	Allyson Rouse	blk Lauren Lewis	+0.8
29	12-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.4
30	13-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+1.9
31	14-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+2.4
32	15-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Anna Harney	+3.0
33	16-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Anna Harney	+3.5
34	16-18	UNCW	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Hailey Gibbons	+3.3
35	16-19	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+3.9
36	16-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced TEAM	+3.3
37	17-20	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.8
38	17-21	UNCW	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen		+2.6
39	17-22	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+2.2
40	17-23	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.2
41	18-23	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.3
42	18-24	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
43	19-24	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
44	20-24	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Anna Harney	+0.4
45	20-25	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.8
Set 2
1	0-1	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Breylan Fairley	+2.1
2	1-1	NC CEN	UNCW×5	Serve err	NC CEN server		+2.1
3	2-1	UNCW	UNCW×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.7
4	3-1	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Alex Fuller	+2.6
5	4-1	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Talia Emmen	blk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham	+2.4
6	5-1	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Talia Emmen	blk Courtney Graham, Gaby Zovko	+2.2
7	5-2	UNCW	NC CEN	Serve err	UNCW server		+1.6
8	6-2	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.7
9	6-3	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.6
10	6-4	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.4
11	7-4	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Talia Emmen	+2.0
12	8-4	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+2.3
13	8-5	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen		+1.7
14	9-5	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+1.8
15	10-5	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Kayla Riley		+2.0
16	10-6	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.4
17	10-7	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+2.2
18	11-7	NC CEN	UNCW×6	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+1.9
19	12-7	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+2.1
20	13-7	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Anna Harney	+1.7
21	14-7	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+1.3
22	15-7	UNCW	UNCW×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.9
23	16-7	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.6
24	16-8	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
25	17-8	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
26	17-9	UNCW	NC CEN	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.3
27	17-10	NC CEN	NC CEN	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
28	18-10	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Jayla Egerton	+0.6
29	18-11	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
30	19-11	NC CEN	UNCW×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
31	20-11	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Talia Emmen	blk Lily Goyer, Gaby Zovko	+0.4
32	21-11	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Alex Fuller	+0.2
33	21-12	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.1
34	22-12	NC CEN	UNCW×3	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Sam Vanda	+0.1
35	23-12	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
36	24-12	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
37	24-13	UNCW	NC CEN	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
38	25-13	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NC CEN	UNCW×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+2.4
2	2-0	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+2.9
3	3-0	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+2.8
4	3-1	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+2.1
5	4-1	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+2.2
6	4-2	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Breylan Fairley	+2.1
7	5-2	NC CEN	UNCW	Serve err	NC CEN server		+2.2
8	6-2	UNCW	UNCW	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.6
9	6-3	UNCW	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.9
10	7-3	NC CEN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+2.1

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.