FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeMAC

Toledo def. Bradley 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BRAD	18	19	24	0
TOLEDO	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · BRAD below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Toledo — set 3, BRAD 24-25 TOLEDO. Attack error by Cherlin Antonio. TOLEDO win probability 97% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BRAD 10.2%89.8% TOLEDO

Bradley wins

3-0

1.4%

3-1

3.1%

3-2

5.7%

Toledo wins

3-0

44.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.1%

BRAD break %: 37.5% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Cherlin AntonioAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Cherlin Antonio
Set 3 · BRAD 24-25 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 99%
02
Cherlin AntonioKill+1.4%
Kill by Cherlin Antonio (set by Maria Drapp)
Set 3 · BRAD 24-23 TOLEDO · BRAD 3% → 4%
03
Ava SiefkeKill+1.4%
Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 3 · BRAD 24-24 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 96% → 97%
04
Sierra PertzbornKill+1.4%
Kill by Sierra Pertzborn (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 3 · BRAD 23-23 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 96% → 97%
05
Cherlin AntonioKill+1.3%
Kill by Cherlin Antonio (set by Maria Drapp)
Set 2 · BRAD 12-10 TOLEDO · BRAD 7% → 8%
06
Mairen MannonAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Mairen Mannon
Set 3 · BRAD 24-26 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 99% → 100%
07
Cherlin AntonioAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Cherlin Antonio
Set 2 · BRAD 12-12 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 93% → 94%
08
Jessica CostlowAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Jessica Costlow
Set 2 · BRAD 10-9 TOLEDO · BRAD 6% → 7%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bradleyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Chloe ParkerMB	3	10	2	27	.296	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	1	11
2Gracie FurlongOH	3	6	7	42	-.024	2	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
4Mairen MannonMB	3	5	4	15	.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
13Adeline GoedheerMB	3	2	3	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
12Maria DrappS	3	3	0	7	.429	23	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	3
9Ava PatchettL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
23Cherlin AntonioOH	3	5	5	24	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	6
8Maren OuelletteOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Megan DePoorterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Eirini BitsaktsiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	3	22	0	0	0	0	0
3Lauren DaleOH	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	23	127	.071	29	2	5	54	3	2	8	6	61

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Sierra PertzbornMB	3	12	3	28	.321	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	8	4	27	.148	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
9Audrey DyasMB	3	8	1	15	.467	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
10Kayla OzanichMB	3	4	3	15	.067	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	4	4	21	.000	1	0	1	17	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Madelyn BachS	3	0	0	3	.000	20	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	7	4	22	.136	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	2	0	15	0	0	0	0	2
3Janelle GreenS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	4	10	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	19	135	.178	42	3	7	59	2	1	10	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BRAD · TOLEDO 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 BRADTOLEDO 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 BRADTOLEDO 5

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 BRADTOLEDO 3

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Bradley leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Bradley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	38%3/8
2	33%7/21	13%1/8
3	55%6/11	46%6/13
4	43%6/14	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	54%7/13
6	40%4/10	40%4/10
All	48%36/75	40%25/62

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	33%3/9
2	54%7/13	68%15/22
3	67%6/9	54%7/13
4	43%6/14	54%7/13
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	56%5/9	50%5/10
All	60%37/62	52%39/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	BRAD-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+1.0
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BRAD	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.8
3	1-2	BRAD	TOLEDO×5	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.7
4	1-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+0.9
5	1-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.8
6	1-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
7	1-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.5
8	2-6	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
9	3-6	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.6
10	3-7	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
11	4-7	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
12	5-7	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.8
13	5-8	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.6
14	6-8	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.7
15	6-9	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.7
16	7-9	TOLEDO	BRAD	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.7
17	7-10	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.7
18	7-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
19	8-11	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.5
20	9-11	BRAD	BRAD	Ace	BRAD server	aced Team	+0.9
21	9-12	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
22	10-12	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+0.7
23	10-13	BRAD	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
24	10-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Bad set	Maria Drapp		+0.8
25	10-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.6
26	10-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Ava Patchett	+0.4
27	10-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
28	11-17	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Gracie Furlong	+0.1
29	12-17	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
30	12-18	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Lauren Dale		+0.3
31	13-18	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Adeline Goedheer, Chloe Parker	+0.2
32	13-19	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.3
33	13-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Lauren Dale		+0.2
34	13-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.1
35	14-21	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.0
36	15-21	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Cherlin Antonio	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
37	15-22	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.1
38	16-22	TOLEDO	BRAD×3	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.0
39	17-22	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
40	18-22	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
41	18-23	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
42	18-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Jessica Costlow	+0.2
43	18-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Mairen Mannon, Chloe Parker	+0.8
2	1-1	BRAD	TOLEDO×5	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.6
3	1-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
4	1-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Chloe Parker	blk Ava Siefke	+0.6
5	1-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
6	1-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.5
7	2-5	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
8	3-5	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Maria Drapp		+0.6
9	3-6	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Mairen Mannon		+0.4
10	4-6	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
11	5-6	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Mairen Mannon		+0.7
12	5-7	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.5
13	5-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Gracie Furlong	blk Audrey Dyas, Sophie Catalano	+0.6
14	6-8	TOLEDO	BRAD×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
15	7-8	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Adeline Goedheer, Megan DePoorter	+0.8
16	8-8	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.9
17	8-9	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.7
18	9-9	TOLEDO	BRAD	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.7
19	10-9	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+1.1
20	10-10	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.8
21	11-10	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.9
22	12-10	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Cherlin Antonio	set Maria Drapp	+1.3
23	12-11	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.9
24	12-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Cherlin Antonio		+1.2
25	12-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.1
26	13-13	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Adeline Goedheer	set Gracie Furlong	+0.9
27	13-14	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
28	14-14	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.9
29	14-15	BRAD	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.9
30	14-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Cherlin Antonio		+1.1
31	14-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Mairen Mannon		+0.9
32	14-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Mairen Mannon		+0.7
33	15-18	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.4
34	15-19	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.5
35	16-19	TOLEDO	BRAD	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
36	16-20	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.5
37	16-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Gracie Furlong	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sophie Catalano	+0.4
38	16-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.2
39	17-22	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Maria Drapp	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.1
40	17-23	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.1
41	17-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+0.1
42	18-24	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
43	19-24	BRAD	BRAD	Ace	BRAD server	aced Avery Adamski	+0.0
44	19-25	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Cherlin Antonio	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.3
2	1-1	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
3	2-1	TOLEDO	BRAD×4	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
4	3-1	BRAD	BRAD×4	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Cherlin Antonio	+0.4
5	4-1	BRAD	BRAD×4	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+0.5
6	5-1	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Cherlin Antonio	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
7	5-2	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
8	5-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Bad set	Maria Drapp		+0.4
9	5-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.4
10	6-4	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Cherlin Antonio	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
11	7-4	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
12	7-5	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
13	7-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.5
14	7-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.4
15	8-7	TOLEDO	BRAD×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
16	9-7	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
17	10-7	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Adeline Goedheer		+0.6
18	10-8	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.4
19	11-8	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
20	11-9	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.4
21	12-9	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
22	12-10	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
23	13-10	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
24	13-11	BRAD	TOLEDO	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.4
25	13-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Cherlin Antonio		+0.6
26	14-12	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Maria Drapp	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.5
27	14-13	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
28	15-13	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
29	15-14	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.4
30	15-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.6
31	15-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.6
32	16-16	TOLEDO	BRAD×4	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
33	17-16	BRAD	BRAD×4	Attack err	Audrey Dyas		+0.8
34	18-16	BRAD	BRAD×4	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Adeline Goedheer	+0.8
35	19-16	BRAD	BRAD×4	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.9
36	19-17	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+0.5
37	20-17	TOLEDO	BRAD	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.7
38	20-18	BRAD	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.5
39	20-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
40	21-19	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.8
41	22-19	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich	blk Adeline Goedheer	+1.0
42	22-20	BRAD	TOLEDO	Attack err	Chloe Parker		+0.5
43	23-20	TOLEDO	BRAD	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.8
44	23-21	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.4
45	23-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
46	23-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+1.4
47	24-23	TOLEDO	BRAD	Kill	Cherlin Antonio	set Maria Drapp	+1.4
48	24-24	BRAD	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.4
49	24-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Cherlin Antonio		+1.6
50	24-26	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Mairen Mannon		+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Bradley first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.