FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeCUSA

New Mexico St. def. California Baptist 3–0

(26-24, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALBAP	24	23	19	0
NM ST	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NM ST above 50 · CALBAP below

Biggest swing: 5.2% to New Mexico St. — set 1, CALBAP 24-26 NM ST. Attack error by Ifeoma Okeke. NM ST win probability 87% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALBAP 15.4%84.6% NM ST

California Baptist wins

3-0

2.3%

3-1

4.9%

3-2

8.1%

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

36.6%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

16.7%

CALBAP break %: 39.9% vs this opp
NM ST break %: 47.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ifeoma OkekeAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Ifeoma Okeke
Set 1 · CALBAP 24-26 NM ST · NM ST 87% → 92%
02
Jaelynn KohliKill+4.9%
Kill by Jaelynn Kohli (set by Paige Nelson)
Set 1 · CALBAP 22-23 NM ST · NM ST 81% → 86%
03
Audrey HeiringAttack error+4.8%
Attack error by Audrey Heiring
Set 1 · CALBAP 23-24 NM ST · NM ST 82% → 87%
04
Maggie LightheartAttack error+4.8%
Attack error by Maggie Lightheart
Set 1 · CALBAP 24-24 NM ST · CALBAP 13% → 18%
05
Avery BarberAttack error+4.8%
Avery Barber stuffed by Maggie Lightheart
Set 1 · CALBAP 24-25 NM ST · NM ST 82% → 87%
06
Katrina CatalanKill+4.6%
Kill by Katrina Catalan (set by Jagoda Bialek)
Set 2 · CALBAP 23-24 NM ST · NM ST 89% → 94%
07
Audrey HeiringKill+4.5%
Kill by Audrey Heiring (set by Avery Barber)
Set 1 · CALBAP 22-20 NM ST · CALBAP 22% → 26%
08
Audrey HeiringAttack error+4.5%
Audrey Heiring stuffed by Mia Fox & Jaelynn Kohli
Set 1 · CALBAP 22-22 NM ST · NM ST 77% → 81%

Official NCAA box

Box score

California Baptistaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Nalanie NealOH	3	10	7	29	.103	0	0	2	11	1	1	0	1	11
5Bella BreuerMB	3	8	3	17	.294	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	10
11Anaiya CampbellOH	3	4	4	18	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	4
21Ifeoma OkekeMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	1	4
7Avery BarberS	3	2	1	7	.143	26	1	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Eleftheria BaxaOH	3	2	3	14	-.071	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Audrey HeiringOH	3	2	4	12	-.167	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	2
9Mia RossmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
22Jagoda BialekL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	0
4Samantha BaileyOPP	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Devyn MasiL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Nika SafaviOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	24	107	.075	29	2	6	45	5	3	4	5	66

New Mexico St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Jaelynn KohliOH	3	10	5	30	.167	0	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
0Tess FuquaOH	3	6	4	20	.100	0	2	2	6	1	0	2	1	9
2Maggie LightheartOH	3	6	5	27	.037	0	0	3	8	0	1	0	1	7
21Lilli SaldivarOH	3	6	1	13	.385	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	6
7Mia FoxMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	6
12Paige NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	16	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
8Ashley HermanOH	3	6	3	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Katrina CatalanS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
3Bella CastroL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
77Zoe ZieglerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	18	108	.194	33	5	11	42	2	1	10	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CALBAP · NM ST 4

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 CALBAPNM ST 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 CALBAPNM ST 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 CALBAPNM ST 4

Bars above the line = New Mexico St. leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California Baptist

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%9/19	53%8/15
2	60%9/15	18%2/11
3	67%6/9	0%0/9
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	55%6/11	33%3/9
6	46%6/13	40%4/10
All	56%42/75	36%24/67

New Mexico St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	60%12/20
2	90%9/10	40%6/15
3	54%7/13	22%2/9
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	50%6/12	54%7/13
All	64%43/67	44%33/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	CALBAP-NM ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox		+1.3
2	0-2	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	NM ST server	aced Team	+1.2
3	1-2	NM ST	CALBAP	Bad set	Mia Fox		+1.0
4	1-3	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.0
5	1-4	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.1
6	1-5	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced Nalanie Neal	+0.9
7	2-5	NM ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.7
8	2-6	CALBAP	NM ST	Bad set	Jagoda Bialek		+0.7
9	3-6	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+0.7
10	3-7	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Paige Nelson	+0.8
11	4-7	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.7
12	5-7	CALBAP	CALBAP	Bad set	Katrina Catalan		+1.2
13	5-8	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+0.9
14	6-8	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+1.0
15	6-9	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
16	7-9	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+1.0
17	8-9	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+1.5
18	8-10	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Serve err	CALBAP server		+1.2
19	8-11	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+1.4
20	8-12	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Bella Breuer		+1.1
21	9-12	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.8
22	10-12	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.3
23	10-13	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa		+1.1
24	10-14	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced Anaiya Campbell	+1.2
25	10-15	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+0.9
26	11-15	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.6
27	11-16	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.7
28	12-16	NM ST	CALBAP×4	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+0.6
29	13-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+1.1
30	14-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Lilli Saldivar		+1.5
31	15-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+2.0
32	15-17	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+1.6
33	16-17	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.6
34	16-18	CALBAP	NM ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+1.7
35	17-18	NM ST	CALBAP×3	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Jagoda Bialek	+1.7
36	18-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+2.8
37	19-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+3.4
38	19-19	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+2.4
39	19-20	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa		+3.2
40	20-20	NM ST	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Eleftheria Baxa, Bella Breuer	+2.6
41	21-20	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+4.1
42	22-20	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+4.5
43	22-21	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+2.7
44	22-22	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Audrey Heiring	blk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli	+4.5
45	22-23	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+4.9
46	23-23	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+3.8
47	23-24	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+4.8
48	24-24	NM ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+4.8
49	24-25	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Avery Barber	blk Maggie Lightheart	+4.8
50	24-26	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Ifeoma Okeke		+5.2
Set 2
1	1-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Audrey Heiring	+1.1
2	2-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Bella Breuer	+1.2
3	3-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Bad set	Paige Nelson		+1.3
4	3-1	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+0.9
5	3-2	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.2
6	4-2	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.0
7	5-2	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+1.4
8	5-3	CALBAP	NM ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.9
9	6-3	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+1.1
10	6-4	CALBAP	NM ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+1.0
11	7-4	NM ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Ashley Herman		+1.1
12	8-4	CALBAP	CALBAP	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Tess Fuqua	+1.5
13	8-5	CALBAP	NM ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+1.0
14	9-5	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+1.2
15	9-6	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
16	10-6	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+1.2
17	10-7	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.0
18	10-8	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.4
19	11-8	NM ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+1.3
20	11-9	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Eleftheria Baxa	+1.1
21	12-9	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.3
22	12-10	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.1
23	13-10	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+1.4
24	13-11	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.2
25	14-11	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+1.5
26	14-12	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.2
27	15-12	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.5
28	16-12	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Ashley Herman		+1.8
29	16-13	CALBAP	NM ST×4	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+1.1
30	16-14	NM ST	NM ST×4	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.7
31	16-15	NM ST	NM ST×4	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.8
32	16-16	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Avery Barber	+1.9
33	17-16	NM ST	CALBAP×3	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.7
34	18-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Avery Barber		+2.3
35	19-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+2.3
36	19-17	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Bad set	Ifeoma Okeke		+1.4
37	19-18	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Bella Breuer	blk Mia Fox, Tess Fuqua	+2.1
38	19-19	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Nalanie Neal	blk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli	+2.3
39	20-19	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+2.1
40	21-19	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Tess Fuqua	blk Nalanie Neal	+2.9
41	21-20	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
42	22-20	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+2.6
43	22-21	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
44	22-22	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+3.2
45	23-22	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Avery Barber	set Jagoda Bialek	+3.2
46	23-23	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+3.0
47	23-24	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Katrina Catalan	set Jagoda Bialek	+4.6
48	23-25	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+3.8
Set 3
1	1-0	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.4
2	1-1	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal	blk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli	+0.4
3	1-2	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.5
4	2-2	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+0.4
5	2-3	CALBAP	NM ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.4
6	3-3	NM ST	CALBAP×4	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.4
7	4-3	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Team	+0.6
8	5-3	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+0.6
9	6-3	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart		+0.7
10	6-4	CALBAP	NM ST×3	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Makayla Martinez	+0.5
11	6-5	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced Audrey Heiring	+0.6
12	6-6	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.6
13	7-6	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.5
14	7-7	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Ifeoma Okeke		+0.5
15	7-8	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+0.6
16	8-8	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.5
17	8-9	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+0.5
18	9-9	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.5
19	10-9	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.7
20	10-10	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.5
21	11-10	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.6
22	11-11	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.5
23	12-11	NM ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart	blk Bella Breuer, Avery Barber	+0.6
24	12-12	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.6
25	13-12	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+0.6
26	13-13	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.6
27	14-13	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+0.7
28	15-13	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Ashley Herman	blk Ifeoma Okeke	+0.9
29	15-14	CALBAP	NM ST	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.6
30	15-15	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa	blk Tess Fuqua, Ashley Herman	+0.9
31	16-15	NM ST	CALBAP	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.8
32	16-16	CALBAP	NM ST×4	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+0.7
33	16-17	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Avery Barber	+0.9
34	16-18	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Katrina Catalan	+0.8
35	16-19	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	NM ST server	aced Team	+0.7
36	17-19	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Samantha Bailey	set Avery Barber	+0.4
37	17-20	CALBAP	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+0.5
38	17-21	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.5
39	17-22	NM ST	NM ST×4	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+0.3
40	17-23	NM ST	NM ST×4	Attack err	Bella Breuer		+0.1
41	18-23	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.0
42	18-24	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.1
43	19-24	NM ST	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell		+0.0
44	19-25	CALBAP	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.