New Mexico St. at UTRGV

Set	1*	2*	3	Sets
NM ST	22	22	–	0
UTRGV	25	13	–	1

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

UTRGV above 50 · NM ST below

Biggest swing: 3.5% to UTRGV — set 1, NM ST 22-25 UTRGV. Attack error by Jaelynn Kohli. UTRGV win probability 54% → 58%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NM ST 63.2%36.8% UTRGV

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

18.9%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

UTRGV wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.3%

3-2

15.8%

NM ST break %: 44.2% vs this opp
UTRGV break %: 41.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jaelynn KohliAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Jaelynn Kohli
Set 1 · NM ST 22-25 UTRGV · UTRGV 54% → 58%
02
UTRGV serverAce+2.7%
UTRGV ace on Makayla Martinez
Set 1 · NM ST 4-6 UTRGV · UTRGV 40% → 42%
03
Ema PetkovicKill+2.7%
Kill by Ema Petkovic (set by Lana Rnjak)
Set 1 · NM ST 4-7 UTRGV · UTRGV 42% → 45%
04
NM ST serverAce+2.7%
New Mexico St. ace on Martina Franco
Set 2 · NM ST 1-0 UTRGV · NM ST 42% → 45%
05
UTRGV serverAce+2.6%
UTRGV ace on Maggie Lightheart
Set 1 · NM ST 4-5 UTRGV · UTRGV 37% → 40%
06
Makayla MartinezKill+2.6%
Kill by Makayla Martinez
Set 2 · NM ST 3-1 UTRGV · NM ST 45% → 47%
07
Martina FrancoKill+2.6%
Kill by Martina Franco (set by Lana Rnjak)
Set 1 · NM ST 5-9 UTRGV · UTRGV 45% → 48%
08
Ema PetkovicKill+2.5%
Kill by Ema Petkovic (set by Lana Rnjak)
Set 1 · NM ST 12-17 UTRGV · UTRGV 51% → 53%

Official NCAA box

Box score

New Mexico St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Jaelynn KohliOH	2	10	2	12	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
8Ashley HermanOH	2	6	0	11	.545	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	6
7Mia FoxMB	2	4	2	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
2Maggie LightheartOH	2	4	1	10	.300	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.5	4.5
0Tess FuquaOH	2	1	2	11	-.091	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	3
12Paige NelsonS	2	0	0	4	.000	13	2	1	5	0	0	0	2
30Jacqueline CorcoranOH	2	1	2	6	-.167	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	2
16Kate SinclairMB	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	2	1	0	3	.333	2	0	1	10	1	0	0	1
10Katrina CatalanS	2	0	0	4	.000	10	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
77Zoe ZieglerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Mia MendozaS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Emma ClawsonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Jazlyn VasquezL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Izzy MenesesDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Emmy NicholasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Katie FunkMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Lilli SaldivarOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Sadie RossOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Ava ArchibaldOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Bella CastroL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	9	72	.278	26	5	6	29	3	4	2	44

UTRGVhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Martina FrancoOH	2	8	3	21	.238	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	8
7Ema PetkovicOH	2	6	2	19	.211	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6
22Julianna BryantMB	2	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Lana RnjakS	2	1	0	3	.333	14	1	0	10	0	0	0	2
2Aaliyah SneadMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
25Soukeyna DioufOH	2	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	0.5
5Celianiz CabranesL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	2
21Carmina TijerinaDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Shylah TottenMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Nadine ZechOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Jasmine AllenOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Dunja StankovicDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
6Agata MakowskaS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Sujeili MermellaS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Isa BentoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Jasmyn WalkerMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	6	57	.211	17	3	2	22	5	2	1	38

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NM ST · UTRGV 4

Set 1*

22-25

Longest run 3 NM STUTRGV 4

Set 2*

22-13

Longest run 4 NM STUTRGV 3

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = New Mexico St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

82 rallies

Rally log

#	NM ST-UTRGV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UTRGV	UTRGV	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.4
2	0-2	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Mia Fox		+2.5
3	1-2	UTRGV	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
4	2-2	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Makayla Martinez		+2.4
5	3-2	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced Soukeyna Diouf	+2.4
6	3-3	NM ST	UTRGV	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.8
7	4-3	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
8	4-4	NM ST	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
9	4-5	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Maggie Lightheart	+2.6
10	4-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Makayla Martinez	+2.7
11	4-7	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+2.7
12	5-7	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
13	5-8	NM ST	UTRGV×3	Kill	Martina Franco		+2.1
14	5-9	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.6
15	5-10	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+2.4
16	6-10	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.5
17	7-10	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Katrina Catalan		+2.3
18	7-11	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.1
19	7-12	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Tess Fuqua		+2.4
20	8-12	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman		+1.5
21	8-13	NM ST	UTRGV	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.9
22	9-13	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Kate Sinclair	set Katrina Catalan	+1.5
23	10-13	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli		+2.4
24	10-14	NM ST	UTRGV	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.2
25	11-14	UTRGV	NM ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.8
26	11-15	NM ST	UTRGV	Ace	NM ST server	aced Tess Fuqua	+2.2
27	12-15	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+1.8
28	12-16	NM ST	UTRGV	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+2.3
29	12-17	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+2.5
30	13-17	UTRGV	NM ST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+1.4
31	13-18	NM ST	UTRGV	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.9
32	14-18	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+1.3
33	15-18	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+2.4
34	15-19	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+2.4
35	15-20	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran		+2.4
36	16-20	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Katrina Catalan	+1.1
37	17-20	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman		+2.3
38	17-21	NM ST	UTRGV	Attack err	Tess Fuqua	set Katrina Catalan	+2.5
39	17-22	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.2
40	18-22	UTRGV	NM ST	Bad set	Julianna Bryant		+0.8
41	18-23	NM ST	UTRGV	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.5
42	19-23	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Kate Sinclair	set Katrina Catalan	+0.6
43	20-23	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.5
44	20-24	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.2
45	21-24	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.6
46	22-24	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Jaelynn Kohli, Mia Fox	+2.0
47	22-25	NM ST	UTRGV	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+3.5
Set 2
1	1-0	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	NM ST server	aced Martina Franco	+2.7
2	1-1	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Lana Rnjak	set Martina Franco	+2.0
3	2-1	UTRGV	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+2.0
4	3-1	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Makayla Martinez		+2.6
5	4-1	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Makayla Martinez	+2.5
6	4-2	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+1.8
7	5-2	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+1.9
8	6-2	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+2.3
9	6-3	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
10	7-3	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+1.7
11	8-3	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Martina Franco		+2.0
12	8-4	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.3
13	9-4	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.5
14	9-5	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Celianiz Cabranes	+1.3
15	10-5	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.5
16	11-5	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Jacqueline Corcoran	+1.7
17	11-6	NM ST	UTRGV	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.0
18	12-6	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Katrina Catalan	+1.3
19	13-6	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	NM ST server	aced TEAM	+1.3
20	13-7	NM ST	UTRGV×3	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
21	13-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.3
22	13-9	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran	blk Aaliyah Snead, Soukeyna Diouf	+1.7
23	14-9	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.6
24	15-9	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	NM ST server	aced Martina Franco	+1.7
25	15-10	NM ST	UTRGV	Bad set	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.9
26	16-10	UTRGV	NM ST	Kill	Tess Fuqua	set Paige Nelson	+1.2
27	17-10	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Maggie Lightheart, Mia Fox	+1.1
28	17-11	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.6
29	18-11	UTRGV	NM ST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.8
30	18-12	NM ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
31	18-13	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant		+1.0
32	19-13	UTRGV	NM ST×4	Attack err	Martina Franco	set Dunja Stankovic	+1.1
33	20-13	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+0.9
34	21-13	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+0.5
35	22-13	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	NM ST server	aced Martina Franco	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, New Mexico St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.