FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomeMVC

Portland St. def. Murray St. 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PORTST	25	25	25	3
MURRAY	18	19	13	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MURRAY above 50 · PORTST below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Portland St. — set 1, PORTST 3-1 MURRAY. Bad set by Ada Tamturk. MURRAY win probability 19% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PORTST 80.1%19.9% MURRAY

Portland St. wins

3-0

31.6%

3-1

30.2%

3-2

18.2%

Murray St. wins

3-0

3.2%

3-1

6.6%

3-2

10.1%

PORTST break %: 43.1% vs this opp
MURRAY break %: 36.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ada TamturkBad set+1.7%
Bad set by Ada Tamturk
Set 1 · PORTST 3-1 MURRAY · PORTST 81% → 83%
02
PORTST serverAce+1.5%
Portland St. ace on Mija Sagadin Pristovnik
Set 1 · PORTST 4-1 MURRAY · PORTST 83% → 84%
03
Alexa WattsAttack error+1.4%
Alexa Watts stuffed by Reese Biesemeyer
Set 2 · PORTST 4-3 MURRAY · PORTST 89% → 90%
04
Lily BurnettAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Lily Burnett
Set 2 · PORTST 5-3 MURRAY · PORTST 90% → 92%
05
Alivia EikenbergKill+1.3%
Kill by Alivia Eikenberg (set by Ava Blascziek)
Set 1 · PORTST 5-1 MURRAY · PORTST 84% → 86%
06
Mija Sagadin PristovnikKill+1.2%
Kill by Mija Sagadin Pristovnik (set by Paige Brock)
Set 1 · PORTST 1-1 MURRAY · MURRAY 19% → 20%
07
Kathryn TitusBad set+1.2%
Bad set by Kathryn Titus
Set 2 · PORTST 7-4 MURRAY · PORTST 92% → 93%
08
Brenna CoffmanKill+1.2%
Kill by Brenna Coffman (set by Ava Blascziek)
Set 1 · PORTST 2-1 MURRAY · PORTST 80% → 81%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Portland St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Alivia EikenbergOH	3	10	3	24	.292	0	1	3	6	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
19Ashley RepettiOH	3	10	2	20	.400	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	11
21Reese BiesemeyerMB	3	4	0	7	.571	2	4	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
3Brenna CoffmanMB	3	4	2	11	.182	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
20Willow WatsonMB	3	5	2	12	.250	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
23Ava BlascziekS	3	2	0	3	.667	20	3	3	5	0	0	0	0	5
11Katarina KosicOPP	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
13Jessica TruongL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	1
12Elisabeth LevickS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
2Paige StepaniukL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Katie BrewerMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Asya AkbulutS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
22Katelyn DaveyOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Alyssandra OrdonaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	9	89	.360	38	10	10	35	3	2	8	6	75

Murray St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Mija Sagadin PristovnikOH	3	8	3	20	.250	0	2	0	6	2	1	0.5	10.5
17Anne MakowskiOH	3	8	4	25	.160	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8
5Lily BurnettOH	3	4	2	15	.133	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.5	4.5
11Maezi SnyderMB	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Paige BrockS	3	1	0	2	.500	20	0	2	5	0	0	0	1
15Alexa WattsOH	2	2	4	9	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Ada TamturkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	1	0	0	0
12Ceren DurakOH	2	1	3	8	-.250	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	2
22Bailey KeuschDS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
8Kathryn TitusS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Burcu GulomurMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Samantha NelsonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team totals		28	16	90	.133	27	3	4	32	10	4	2	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 PORTST · MURRAY 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 PORTSTMURRAY 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 PORTSTMURRAY 5

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 7 PORTSTMURRAY 3

Bars above the line = Murray St. leads, below = Portland St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Portland St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	57%8/14
2	70%7/10	53%8/15
3	100%7/7	36%4/11
4	70%7/10	46%6/13
5	86%6/7	45%5/11
6	56%5/9	44%4/9
All	77%40/52	48%35/73

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	42%5/12
2	64%7/11	20%2/10
3	64%7/11	13%1/8
4	46%6/13	22%2/9
5	63%5/8	25%2/8
6	45%5/11	0%0/5
All	52%38/73	23%12/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	PORTST-MURRAY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MURRAY	PORTST	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.1
2	1-1	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+1.2
3	2-1	MURRAY	PORTST×4	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Ava Blascziek	+1.2
4	3-1	PORTST	PORTST×4	Bad set	Ada Tamturk		+1.7
5	4-1	PORTST	PORTST×4	Ace	PORTST server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+1.5
6	5-1	PORTST	PORTST×4	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+1.3
7	5-2	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.8
8	6-2	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+0.8
9	6-3	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.8
10	7-3	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Reese Biesemeyer	set Ava Blascziek	+0.8
11	8-3	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.1
12	8-4	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Kathryn Titus	+0.6
13	9-4	MURRAY	PORTST	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.7
14	9-5	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.6
15	10-5	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.7
16	10-6	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.6
17	11-6	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.7
18	11-7	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.6
19	12-7	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+0.7
20	12-8	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.6
21	13-8	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Alexa Watts	blk Brenna Coffman, Alivia Eikenberg	+0.7
22	14-8	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.8
23	14-9	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.4
24	15-9	MURRAY	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+0.5
25	16-9	PORTST	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.5
26	17-9	PORTST	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Kathryn Titus	+0.3
27	17-10	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
28	18-10	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Reese Biesemeyer	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.2
29	18-11	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.1
30	19-11	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.2
31	19-12	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
32	19-13	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Ashley Repetti		+0.2
33	20-13	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.2
34	21-13	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Willow Watson, Brenna Coffman	+0.2
35	21-14	PORTST	MURRAY×3	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.0
36	21-15	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+0.1
37	21-16	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Alivia Eikenberg	+0.3
38	22-16	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Ava Blascziek	+0.3
39	22-17	PORTST	MURRAY	Attack err	Willow Watson		+0.1
40	23-17	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+0.3
41	23-18	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.1
42	24-18	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.2
43	25-18	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Reese Biesemeyer	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.0
2	1-1	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.9
3	1-2	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.0
4	2-2	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+0.9
5	2-3	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.0
6	3-3	MURRAY	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+1.0
7	4-3	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Alexa Watts	blk Reese Biesemeyer	+1.4
8	5-3	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+1.3
9	5-4	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.9
10	6-4	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.9
11	7-4	PORTST	PORTST	Bad set	Kathryn Titus		+1.2
12	7-5	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.8
13	8-5	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Reese Biesemeyer	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.8
14	9-5	PORTST	PORTST	Ace	PORTST server	aced Bailey Keusch	+1.0
15	9-6	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.6
16	10-6	MURRAY	PORTST×4	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.7
17	11-6	PORTST	PORTST×4	Kill	Willow Watson	set Brenna Coffman	+0.8
18	12-6	PORTST	PORTST×4	Bad set	Kathryn Titus		+0.6
19	13-6	PORTST	PORTST×4	Ace	PORTST server	aced Bailey Keusch	+0.4
20	13-7	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Ceren Durak	+0.2
21	14-7	MURRAY	PORTST	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.3
22	15-7	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+0.3
23	15-8	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Bailey Keusch	+0.1
24	15-9	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg	blk Maezi Snyder, Alexa Watts	+0.3
25	16-9	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+0.3
26	17-9	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Ava Blascziek	set Maezi Snyder	+0.2
27	17-10	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.1
28	18-10	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+0.1
29	19-10	PORTST	PORTST	Bad set	Paige Brock		+0.1
30	19-11	PORTST	MURRAY	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg		+0.0
31	19-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.1
32	20-12	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Reese Biesemeyer	+0.1
33	20-13	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.0
34	21-13	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.1
35	22-13	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+0.0
36	22-14	PORTST	MURRAY×5	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.0
37	22-15	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Attack err	Ashley Repetti		+0.0
38	22-16	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Attack err	Brenna Coffman		+0.1
39	22-17	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.2
40	22-18	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.3
41	23-18	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Katarina Kosic, Brenna Coffman	+0.4
42	24-18	PORTST	PORTST	Ace	PORTST server	aced Samantha Nelson	+0.2
43	24-19	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.0
44	25-19	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ava Blascziek		+0.5
2	1-1	PORTST	MURRAY	Attack err	Willow Watson	blk Lily Burnett, Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.5
3	2-1	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Ava Blascziek	+0.5
4	2-2	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.5
5	3-2	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+0.5
6	3-3	PORTST	MURRAY×3	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.5
7	3-4	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+0.8
8	3-5	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Paige Brock	+0.9
9	4-5	MURRAY	PORTST	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Reese Biesemeyer, Willow Watson	+0.5
10	4-6	PORTST	MURRAY	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg		+0.6
11	5-6	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Reese Biesemeyer	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.6
12	5-7	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.7
13	6-7	MURRAY	PORTST×5	Attack err	Ceren Durak		+0.6
14	7-7	PORTST	PORTST×5	Ace	PORTST server	aced Ceren Durak	+0.9
15	8-7	PORTST	PORTST×5	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.9
16	9-7	PORTST	PORTST×5	Ace	PORTST server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.8
17	10-7	PORTST	PORTST×5	Ace	PORTST server	aced Ada Tamturk	+0.7
18	10-8	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.4
19	11-8	MURRAY	PORTST×7	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.5
20	12-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+0.6
21	13-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+0.4
22	14-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Ava Blascziek	+0.3
23	15-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Ace	PORTST server	aced Lily Burnett	+0.2
24	16-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Jessica Truong	+0.1
25	17-8	PORTST	PORTST×7	Attack err	Ceren Durak	blk Brenna Coffman	+0.1
26	17-9	PORTST	MURRAY	Serve err	PORTST server		+0.0
27	18-9	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Jessica Truong	+0.0
28	18-10	PORTST	MURRAY	Attack err	Brenna Coffman		+0.0
29	19-10	MURRAY	PORTST×3	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+0.0
30	20-10	PORTST	PORTST×3	Ace	PORTST server	aced Team	+0.0
31	21-10	PORTST	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Willow Watson	+0.0
32	21-11	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.0
33	22-11	MURRAY	PORTST	Kill	Katie Brewer	set Ava Blascziek	+0.0
34	22-12	PORTST	MURRAY	Kill	Paige Brock		+0.0
35	22-13	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.0
36	23-13	MURRAY	PORTST×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.0
37	24-13	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Ceren Durak		+0.0
38	25-13	PORTST	PORTST×3	Ace	PORTST server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Portland St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.