FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomeSOUTHLAND

Portland St. def. UTRGV 3–0

(25-16, 25-19, 25-17)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
PORTST	25	25	25	3
UTRGV	16	19	17	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UTRGV above 50 · PORTST below

Biggest swing: 5.1% to Portland St. — set 2, PORTST 20-18 UTRGV. Kill by Katie Brewer (set by Elisabeth Levick). UTRGV win probability 29% → 24%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PORTST 46.3%53.7% UTRGV

Portland St. wins

3-0

11.0%

3-1

17.2%

3-2

18.1%

UTRGV wins

3-0

14.1%

3-1

20.3%

3-2

19.3%

PORTST break %: 41.8% vs this opp
UTRGV break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katie BrewerKill+5.1%
Kill by Katie Brewer (set by Elisabeth Levick)
Set 2 · PORTST 20-18 UTRGV · PORTST 71% → 76%
02
Katarina KosicKill+4.8%
Kill by Katarina Kosic (set by Elisabeth Levick)
Set 2 · PORTST 18-17 UTRGV · PORTST 65% → 70%
03
PORTST serverAce+4.4%
Portland St. ace on Dunja Stankovic
Set 2 · PORTST 21-18 UTRGV · PORTST 76% → 80%
04
Willow WatsonAttack error+4.2%
Willow Watson stuffed by Martina Franco & Julianna Bryant
Set 2 · PORTST 15-16 UTRGV · UTRGV 33% → 38%
05
Ema PetkovicAttack error+4.0%
Ema Petkovic stuffed by Brenna Coffman & Alivia Eikenberg
Set 2 · PORTST 15-14 UTRGV · PORTST 65% → 70%
06
UTRGV serverAce+3.8%
UTRGV ace on Team
Set 2 · PORTST 13-14 UTRGV · UTRGV 33% → 37%
07
Katarina KosicKill+3.7%
Kill by Katarina Kosic (set by Elisabeth Levick)
Set 2 · PORTST 19-18 UTRGV · PORTST 67% → 71%
08
Willow WatsonAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Willow Watson
Set 2 · PORTST 13-13 UTRGV · UTRGV 30% → 33%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Portland St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ashley RepettiOH	3	7	1	15	.400	1	0	1	12	0	1	0.5	7.5
20Willow WatsonMB	3	6	2	12	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
23Ava BlascziekS	3	1	0	2	.500	12	5	3	2	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Brenna CoffmanMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Alivia EikenbergOH	2	5	3	14	.143	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
21Reese BiesemeyerMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
11Katarina KosicOPP	3	11	0	17	.647	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11
12Elisabeth LevickS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
13Jessica TruongL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	7	1	0	0	1
2Paige StepaniukL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	1
16Katie BrewerMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Maryn HallOH	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		37	9	81	.346	34	7	9	29	3	8	4	75

UTRGVhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Martina FrancoOH	3	12	4	23	.348	2	0	0	10	0	2	1	13
7Ema PetkovicOH	3	6	8	22	-.091	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	7
22Julianna BryantMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
10Lana RnjakS	3	2	0	4	.500	25	1	1	8	0	3	1.5	4.5
2Aaliyah SneadMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
25Soukeyna DioufOH	2	1	3	6	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Jasmyn WalkerMB	3	2	5	13	-.231	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
21Carmina TijerinaDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
5Celianiz CabranesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8Dunja StankovicDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	3	0	0	0
6Agata MakowskaS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11Sujeili MermellaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	24	85	.059	29	3	7	29	7	10	5	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 PORTST · UTRGV 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 5 PORTSTUTRGV 2

Set 2*

25-19

Longest run 6 PORTSTUTRGV 4

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 PORTSTUTRGV 4

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = Portland St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Portland St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	50%4/8
2	83%5/6	67%10/15
3	100%4/4	0%0/4
4	80%4/5	43%3/7
5	57%4/7	43%3/7
6	100%4/4	43%3/7
All	77%27/35	48%23/48

UTRGV

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%5/15	33%3/9
2	100%4/4	17%1/6
3	57%4/7	0%0/4
4	57%4/7	20%1/5
5	57%4/7	43%3/7
6	50%4/8	0%0/4
All	52%25/48	23%8/35

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	PORTST-UTRGV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Dunja Stankovic	+2.5
2	0-2	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Jessica Truong	+2.5
3	1-2	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+1.7
4	2-2	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Reese Biesemeyer		+2.5
5	2-3	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.9
6	3-3	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Aaliyah Snead		+1.9
7	3-4	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.9
8	4-4	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Jessica Truong	+1.9
9	4-5	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.0
10	5-5	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+2.0
11	6-5	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.8
12	6-6	PORTST	UTRGV	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg	blk Lana Rnjak, Julianna Bryant	+2.0
13	7-6	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+2.1
14	7-7	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+2.1
15	8-7	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Elisabeth Levick	set Ashley Repetti	+2.2
16	9-7	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+3.0
17	9-8	PORTST	UTRGV	Attack err	Ashley Repetti	blk Lana Rnjak, Aaliyah Snead	+2.1
18	10-8	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+2.2
19	11-8	PORTST	PORTST	Ace	PORTST server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+3.0
20	11-9	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.9
21	11-10	UTRGV	UTRGV	Bad set	Ava Blascziek		+3.0
22	12-10	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+2.4
23	12-11	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Dunja Stankovic	+2.2
24	13-11	UTRGV	PORTST×3	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Willow Watson	+2.5
25	14-11	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+3.2
26	15-11	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Martina Franco		+2.9
27	15-12	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.7
28	16-12	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+2.1
29	16-13	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.7
30	17-13	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.2
31	17-14	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+1.7
32	18-14	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+2.2
33	19-14	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Soukeyna Diouf	+2.3
34	19-15	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.1
35	20-15	UTRGV	PORTST×5	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+1.7
36	21-15	PORTST	PORTST×5	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Ashley Repetti, Reese Biesemeyer	+1.4
37	22-15	PORTST	PORTST×5	Ace	PORTST server	aced Team	+0.7
38	23-15	PORTST	PORTST×5	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+0.3
39	24-15	PORTST	PORTST×5	Attack err	Aaliyah Snead		+0.1
40	24-16	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.0
41	25-16	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker	blk Willow Watson, Reese Biesemeyer	+2.6
2	2-0	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti		+2.6
3	2-1	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.8
4	2-2	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg		+2.7
5	3-2	UTRGV	PORTST×4	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Alivia Eikenberg	+2.0
6	4-2	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker		+2.7
7	5-2	PORTST	PORTST×4	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+2.7
8	6-2	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+2.5
9	6-3	PORTST	UTRGV×4	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
10	6-4	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Bad set	Ashley Repetti		+2.5
11	6-5	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Alivia Eikenberg		+2.8
12	6-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Reese Biesemeyer	blk Aaliyah Snead, Martina Franco	+2.9
13	7-6	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+2.2
14	7-7	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.2
15	8-7	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Alivia Eikenberg	set Ava Blascziek	+2.3
16	8-8	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+2.2
17	9-8	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+2.3
18	9-9	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.3
19	10-9	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.4
20	10-10	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Jasmyn Walker	set Lana Rnjak	+2.4
21	11-10	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker		+2.5
22	12-10	PORTST	PORTST	Ace	PORTST server	aced Jasmyn Walker	+3.4
23	12-11	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+2.3
24	13-11	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+2.6
25	13-12	PORTST	UTRGV×3	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+2.4
26	13-13	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Willow Watson		+3.6
27	13-14	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Team	+3.8
28	14-14	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+2.7
29	15-14	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Brenna Coffman, Alivia Eikenberg	+4.0
30	15-15	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+2.9
31	15-16	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Willow Watson	blk Martina Franco, Julianna Bryant	+4.2
32	16-16	UTRGV	PORTST	Serve err	UTRGV server		+3.0
33	16-17	PORTST	UTRGV	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+3.2
34	17-17	UTRGV	PORTST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+3.2
35	18-17	PORTST	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+4.8
36	18-18	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+3.4
37	19-18	UTRGV	PORTST×6	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+3.7
38	20-18	PORTST	PORTST×6	Kill	Katie Brewer	set Elisabeth Levick	+5.1
39	21-18	PORTST	PORTST×6	Ace	PORTST server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+4.4
40	22-18	PORTST	PORTST×6	Attack err	Martina Franco		+3.2
41	23-18	PORTST	PORTST×6	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.8
42	24-18	PORTST	PORTST×6	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.7
43	24-19	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Jasmyn Walker	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
44	25-19	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Katie Brewer	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+1.3
2	2-0	PORTST	PORTST	Ace	PORTST server	aced Team	+1.8
3	2-1	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.3
4	3-1	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Ava Blascziek	+1.4
5	3-2	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.3
6	4-2	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Willow Watson	set Ava Blascziek	+1.4
7	5-2	PORTST	PORTST	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+1.9
8	5-3	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.3
9	5-4	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Paige Stepaniuk	+1.9
10	6-4	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Maryn Hall, Ava Blascziek	+1.5
11	6-5	PORTST	UTRGV×4	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.4
12	6-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Lana Rnjak	set Martina Franco	+2.0
13	6-7	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Maryn Hall	blk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak	+2.1
14	6-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+2.1
15	7-8	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+1.4
16	7-9	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.5
17	8-9	UTRGV	PORTST×3	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+1.5
18	9-9	PORTST	PORTST×3	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker		+2.2
19	10-9	PORTST	PORTST×3	Ace	PORTST server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+2.3
20	10-10	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Lana Rnjak	set Martina Franco	+1.7
21	11-10	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Jessica Truong	+1.7
22	11-11	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.7
23	12-11	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Ava Blascziek	set Paige Stepaniuk	+1.8
24	12-12	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.8
25	13-12	UTRGV	PORTST	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.9
26	13-13	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.9
27	14-13	UTRGV	PORTST×3	Kill	Maryn Hall	set Ava Blascziek	+2.0
28	15-13	PORTST	PORTST×3	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.7
29	16-13	PORTST	PORTST×3	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.5
30	16-14	PORTST	UTRGV	Serve err	PORTST server		+1.6
31	17-14	UTRGV	PORTST×4	Kill	Brenna Coffman	set Elisabeth Levick	+1.9
32	18-14	PORTST	PORTST×4	Kill	Ashley Repetti	set Elisabeth Levick	+2.2
33	19-14	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Martina Franco		+1.7
34	20-14	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker		+1.1
35	20-15	PORTST	UTRGV	Attack err	Brenna Coffman		+0.5
36	21-15	UTRGV	PORTST	Kill	Katarina Kosic	set Elisabeth Levick	+0.8
37	21-16	PORTST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
38	21-17	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.9
39	22-17	UTRGV	PORTST×4	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.1
40	23-17	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+0.7
41	24-17	PORTST	PORTST×4	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+0.3
42	25-17	PORTST	PORTST×4	Ace	PORTST server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Portland St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.