FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Green Bay def. Navy 3–0

(25-17, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
GRNBAY	25	25	25	3
NAVY	17	21	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NAVY above 50 · GRNBAY below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Green Bay — set 2, GRNBAY 22-21 NAVY. Attack error by Ellen Gundlach. NAVY win probability 17% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GRNBAY 73.6%26.4% NAVY

Green Bay wins

3-0

26.0%

3-1

28.2%

3-2

19.5%

Navy wins

3-0

4.8%

3-1

9.1%

3-2

12.5%

GRNBAY break %: 46.4% vs this opp
NAVY break %: 41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ellen GundlachAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Ellen Gundlach
Set 2 · GRNBAY 22-21 NAVY · GRNBAY 83% → 87%
02
Gillian KoningKill+3.9%
Kill by Gillian Koning (set by Alexa Hernandez)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 21-21 NAVY · GRNBAY 79% → 83%
03
Hailey JacobusAttack error+3.9%
Attack error by Hailey Jacobus
Set 2 · GRNBAY 23-21 NAVY · GRNBAY 87% → 91%
04
Hailey JacobusKill+3.9%
Kill by Hailey Jacobus (set by Amara Chambers)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 19-21 NAVY · NAVY 20% → 23%
05
Ellen GundlachAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Ellen Gundlach
Set 2 · GRNBAY 18-18 NAVY · GRNBAY 81% → 84%
06
Siena MorganKill+2.9%
Kill by Siena Morgan (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 19-20 NAVY · NAVY 17% → 20%
07
Siena MorganKill+2.9%
Kill by Siena Morgan (set by Kinamoni Jerome)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 15-17 NAVY · NAVY 18% → 21%
08
Ellen GundlachKill+2.7%
Kill by Ellen Gundlach (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 18-19 NAVY · NAVY 16% → 19%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Green Bayaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Gillian KoningOH	3	11	1	26	.385	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	13
10Diane PichelmanMB	3	10	0	24	.417	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	1	12
6Kayla BirminghamOH	3	7	2	14	.357	0	0	3	6	2	0	2	1	8
5Olivia NeumannMB	3	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	8
21Alexa HernandezS	3	4	0	7	.571	34	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	7
4Kennedy SchmitzL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	9	1	0	0	0	1
11Kirsten FishOH	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
8Alexis GardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
13Eva SwensonS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Macy KlineL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	7	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	6	94	.394	42	6	9	36	6	1	12	7	75

Navyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Ellen GundlachMB	3	9	4	25	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
4Farrah EikeOH	3	8	5	23	.130	0	1	1	6	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
24Siena MorganMB	3	6	0	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Hailey JacobusOH	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	3
6Isa BoydS	3	0	0	0	–	14	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
17Avery MadduxMB	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	3
21Amara ChambersL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
11Mackenzie PalumboOH	2	5	3	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
10Kinamoni JeromeS	2	0	0	0	–	9	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	2
2Ally AlessioL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Caroline BuffumOH	1	3	0	5	.600	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
13Caroline AdamsS	1	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Grace BurgoyneMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	1
18Izzy PicardOH	1	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Paige BuzzerioOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	18	97	.186	35	6	8	40	6	1	6	4	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 GRNBAY · NAVY 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 GRNBAYNAVY 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 GRNBAYNAVY 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 GRNBAYNAVY 3

Bars above the line = Navy leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Green Bay

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	33%3/9
2	67%8/12	38%5/13
3	58%7/12	59%10/17
4	67%6/9	54%7/13
5	67%6/9	33%3/9
6	83%5/6	58%7/12
All	67%40/60	48%35/73

Navy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	30%3/10
2	57%8/14	33%4/12
3	38%6/16	33%4/12
4	60%6/10	45%5/11
5	38%5/13	0%0/6
6	83%5/6	44%4/9
All	52%38/73	33%20/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	GRNBAY-NAVY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NAVY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Farrah Eike		+1.5
2	2-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus		+1.8
3	3-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Hailey Jacobus	+1.6
4	3-1	GRNBAY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.3
5	3-2	NAVY	NAVY×3	Ace	NAVY server	aced Kayla Birmingham	+1.8
6	3-3	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	Olivia Neumann		+2.0
7	4-3	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.6
8	4-4	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+1.7
9	5-4	NAVY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus	blk Olivia Neumann, Gillian Koning	+1.6
10	6-4	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.0
11	7-4	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Avery Maddux	blk Olivia Neumann	+1.8
12	8-4	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Farrah Eike	+1.6
13	8-5	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+1.2
14	8-6	NAVY	NAVY	Ace	NAVY server	aced Macy Kline	+1.8
15	9-6	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+1.5
16	9-7	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.4
17	10-7	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Macy Kline	+1.5
18	11-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Hailey Jacobus	+1.7
19	11-8	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.2
20	11-9	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.9
21	12-9	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Alexis Gardner	+1.6
22	12-10	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.5
23	13-10	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.7
24	13-11	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+1.6
25	14-11	NAVY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.7
26	15-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Farrah Eike	+1.9
27	16-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.5
28	17-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Farrah Eike	+1.1
29	17-12	GRNBAY	NAVY×4	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.6
30	17-13	NAVY	NAVY×4	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Amara Chambers	+1.1
31	17-14	NAVY	NAVY×4	Attack err	Olivia Neumann	blk Avery Maddux	+1.6
32	17-15	NAVY	NAVY×4	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Amara Chambers	+2.2
33	18-15	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+2.0
34	19-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+2.0
35	19-16	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+1.2
36	20-16	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.6
37	21-16	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.4
38	21-17	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.7
39	22-17	NAVY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.0
40	23-17	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Mackenzie Palumbo		+0.6
41	24-17	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.2
42	25-17	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Mackenzie Palumbo	blk Diane Pichelman, Kayla Birmingham	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+1.5
2	1-1	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.2
3	1-2	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Gillian Koning	blk Siena Morgan, Ellen Gundlach	+1.7
4	2-2	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.3
5	3-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.6
6	3-3	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Isa Boyd	+1.3
7	4-3	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Kennedy Schmitz	+1.3
8	4-4	GRNBAY	NAVY×3	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.3
9	4-5	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham		+1.8
10	4-6	NAVY	NAVY×3	Ace	NAVY server	aced Macy Kline	+1.9
11	5-6	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+1.4
12	6-6	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Farrah Eike		+1.8
13	6-7	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.5
14	7-7	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.5
15	8-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Avery Maddux		+1.8
16	8-8	GRNBAY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.5
17	8-9	NAVY	NAVY×3	Ace	NAVY server	aced Kayla Birmingham	+2.1
18	8-10	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Kinamoni Jerome	+2.2
19	9-10	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+1.6
20	9-11	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Kinamoni Jerome	+1.8
21	10-11	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.6
22	10-12	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.8
23	11-12	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Macy Kline	+1.7
24	11-13	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.9
25	12-13	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.7
26	12-14	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+2.0
27	13-14	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.8
28	14-14	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Mackenzie Palumbo		+2.4
29	14-15	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Kinamoni Jerome	+2.1
30	15-15	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.0
31	15-16	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Amara Chambers	+2.2
32	15-17	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Kinamoni Jerome	+2.9
33	16-17	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.0
34	16-18	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Amara Chambers	+2.5
35	17-18	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.1
36	18-18	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+3.0
37	18-19	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+2.7
38	19-19	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.5
39	19-20	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+2.9
40	19-21	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Amara Chambers	+3.9
41	20-21	NAVY	GRNBAY×6	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.5
42	21-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+3.9
43	22-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+4.3
44	23-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus		+3.9
45	24-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Amara Chambers	+2.7
46	25-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.0
Set 3
1	0-1	NAVY	NAVY	Ace	NAVY server	aced Macy Kline	+0.9
2	1-1	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Diane Pichelman	+0.7
3	1-2	GRNBAY	NAVY	Bad set	Kennedy Schmitz		+0.7
4	2-2	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.7
5	2-3	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.8
6	3-3	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Macy Kline	+0.7
7	3-4	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.8
8	4-4	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.7
9	4-5	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+0.8
10	5-5	NAVY	GRNBAY×4	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.8
11	6-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.0
12	7-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.9
13	8-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Izzy Picard	blk Kayla Birmingham, Diane Pichelman	+0.8
14	8-6	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.6
15	9-6	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.6
16	9-7	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.6
17	9-8	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Amara Chambers	+0.9
18	10-8	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.8
19	11-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.9
20	11-9	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.7
21	11-10	NAVY	NAVY	Ace	NAVY server	aced Kennedy Schmitz	+1.0
22	12-10	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Kennedy Schmitz	+0.8
23	12-11	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.8
24	13-11	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.8
25	13-12	GRNBAY	NAVY×3	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.8
26	13-13	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	Kirsten Fish	blk Grace Burgoyne, Farrah Eike	+1.2
27	13-14	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Caroline Adams	set Caroline Buffum	+1.4
28	14-14	NAVY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Farrah Eike	blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish	+1.0
29	15-14	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexis Gardner	+1.3
30	15-15	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+1.1
31	16-15	NAVY	GRNBAY	Serve err	NAVY server		+1.1
32	16-16	GRNBAY	NAVY	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham	blk Grace Burgoyne, Izzy Picard	+1.1
33	17-16	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.2
34	18-16	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.4
35	18-17	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+1.0
36	18-18	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Amara Chambers	+1.6
37	19-18	NAVY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.3
38	20-18	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning		+1.6
39	20-19	GRNBAY	NAVY	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.1
40	21-19	NAVY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.3
41	22-19	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.4
42	23-19	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.9
43	23-20	GRNBAY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.3
44	24-20	NAVY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Farrah Eike	blk Olivia Neumann, Gillian Koning	+0.6
45	25-20	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Farrah Eike	blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.