FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomeOVC

Green Bay def. Tennessee St. 3–0

(25-14, 25-18, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
GRNBAY	25	25	25	3
TENNST	14	18	13	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENNST above 50 · GRNBAY below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Tennessee St. — set 2, GRNBAY 7-10 TENNST. Kill by Savanna Moore (set by Italya Carter). TENNST win probability 0% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GRNBAY 99.8%0.2% TENNST

Green Bay wins

3-0

84.7%

3-1

13.7%

3-2

1.4%

Tennessee St. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.2%

GRNBAY break %: 53.6% vs this opp
TENNST break %: 31.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Savanna MooreKill+0.1%
Kill by Savanna Moore (set by Italya Carter)
Set 2 · GRNBAY 7-10 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
02
Wiktoria JakubikAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Wiktoria Jakubik
Set 2 · GRNBAY 9-10 TENNST · GRNBAY 100% → 100%
03
Kayla BirminghamAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Kayla Birmingham
Set 2 · GRNBAY 9-11 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
04
Triniti JacksonBad set+0.1%
Bad set by Triniti Jackson
Set 2 · GRNBAY 11-11 TENNST · GRNBAY 100% → 100%
05
Kirsten FishAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Kirsten Fish
Set 2 · GRNBAY 5-7 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
06
TENNST serverAce+0.1%
Tennessee St. ace on Kennedy Schmitz
Set 1 · GRNBAY 1-2 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
07
Kirsten FishAttack error+0.1%
Kirsten Fish stuffed by Melae Lacy & Gabriella Blevins
Set 2 · GRNBAY 7-9 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%
08
Gabrielle WashingtonKill+0.1%
Kill by Gabrielle Washington (set by Triniti Jackson)
Set 1 · GRNBAY 3-4 TENNST · TENNST 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Green Bayaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Gillian KoningOH	3	11	3	23	.348	0	0	1	1	0	3	1.5	12.5
6Kayla BirminghamOH	3	9	2	12	.583	1	2	0	6	1	0	0	11
10Diane PichelmanMB	3	10	3	16	.438	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	10
5Olivia NeumannMB	3	7	0	12	.583	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	9
21Alexa HernandezS	3	4	1	7	.429	35	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Kennedy SchmitzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
17Kelsey JustmanOH	3	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
8Alexis GardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
2Macy KlineL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	13	0	0	0	0
14Sari MarksS	2	2	0	6	.333	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	3
11Kirsten FishOH	2	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Riley SchmitzL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Jessica KurpeikisOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	13	87	.379	40	5	5	36	2	8	4	75

Tennessee St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Sydney RobinsonMB	3	10	2	19	.421	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10
1Carsyn StansberryOH	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4
11Wiktoria JakubikOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
8Melae LacyOH	3	1	5	16	-.250	0	0	1	2	1	2	1	2
15Triniti JacksonS	3	1	1	6	.000	13	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
13Gabriella BlevinsMB	3	0	0	5	.000	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	1
3Sydni PostonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	4	0	0	0	2
4Jordan ImperialL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	0
7Gabrielle WashingtonMB	2	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
2Julia CulpepperOH	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
10Italya CarterS	2	0	0	3	.000	7	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
5Savanna MooreMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		25	14	81	.136	23	2	7	25	5	6	3	45

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 GRNBAY · TENNST 4

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 7 GRNBAYTENNST 2

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 GRNBAYTENNST 4

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 4 GRNBAYTENNST 2

Bars above the line = Tennessee St. leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Green Bay

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	62%8/13
2	67%6/9	70%14/20
3	67%6/9	50%6/12
4	86%6/7	14%1/7
5	86%6/7	45%5/11
6	86%6/7	40%4/10
All	79%37/47	52%38/73

Tennessee St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	26%6/23	22%2/9
2	46%6/13	25%2/8
3	67%6/9	14%1/7
4	60%6/10	40%4/10
5	60%6/10	0%0/6
6	63%5/8	14%1/7
All	48%35/73	21%10/47

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

120 rallies

Rally log

#	GRNBAY-TENNST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
2	1-1	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.0
3	1-2	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Kennedy Schmitz	+0.1
4	2-2	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
5	2-3	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
6	3-3	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
7	3-4	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Washington	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
8	4-4	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
9	5-4	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
10	5-5	GRNBAY	TENNST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
11	6-5	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
12	6-6	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+0.0
13	7-6	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
14	8-6	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
15	8-7	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.0
16	9-7	TENNST	GRNBAY×7	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
17	10-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
18	11-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Bad set	Triniti Jackson		+0.0
19	12-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Attack err	Triniti Jackson	blk Gillian Koning, Olivia Neumann	+0.0
20	13-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
21	14-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Kayla Birmingham	+0.0
22	15-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×7	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.0
23	15-8	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
24	16-8	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
25	17-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
26	17-9	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
27	18-9	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
28	18-10	GRNBAY	TENNST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
29	19-10	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
30	20-10	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Bad set	Triniti Jackson		+0.0
31	20-11	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
32	21-11	TENNST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
33	22-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Macy Kline	+0.0
34	22-12	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Kelsey Justman		+0.0
35	23-12	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
36	24-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Carsyn Stansberry	+0.0
37	24-13	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
38	24-14	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
39	25-14	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.0
2	2-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
3	3-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
4	3-1	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Jordan Imperial	+0.0
5	4-1	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
6	4-2	GRNBAY	TENNST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
7	4-3	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.0
8	5-3	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Kayla Birmingham	+0.0
9	5-4	GRNBAY	TENNST×4	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
10	5-5	TENNST	TENNST×4	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Sydni Poston	+0.0
11	5-6	TENNST	TENNST×4	Attack err	Kirsten Fish	blk Savanna Moore, Gabriella Blevins	+0.0
12	5-7	TENNST	TENNST×4	Attack err	Kirsten Fish		+0.1
13	6-7	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
14	6-8	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
15	7-8	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
16	7-9	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Kirsten Fish	blk Melae Lacy, Gabriella Blevins	+0.1
17	7-10	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Savanna Moore	set Italya Carter	+0.1
18	8-10	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
19	9-10	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.1
20	9-11	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham		+0.1
21	10-11	TENNST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
22	11-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Bad set	Triniti Jackson		+0.1
23	12-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
24	12-12	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+0.0
25	13-12	TENNST	GRNBAY×4	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
26	14-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
27	15-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
28	16-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
29	16-13	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Alexa Hernandez		+0.0
30	17-13	TENNST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
31	18-13	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.0
32	19-13	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry	blk Gillian Koning, Olivia Neumann	+0.0
33	19-14	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
34	20-14	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
35	20-15	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Italya Carter	+0.0
36	21-15	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
37	22-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman		+0.0
38	22-16	GRNBAY	TENNST	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham		+0.0
39	23-16	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
40	23-17	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Italya Carter	+0.0
41	23-18	TENNST	TENNST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman	blk Wiktoria Jakubik, Melae Lacy	+0.0
42	24-18	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kelsey Justman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
43	25-18	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Melae Lacy	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	TENNST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
2	2-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann		+0.0
3	3-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Melae Lacy	blk Alexa Hernandez, Olivia Neumann	+0.0
4	3-1	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Triniti Jackson	set Jordan Imperial	+0.0
5	3-2	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Kayla Birmingham	+0.0
6	4-2	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
7	5-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Melae Lacy	blk Olivia Neumann, Gillian Koning	+0.0
8	5-3	GRNBAY	TENNST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
9	6-3	TENNST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.0
10	6-4	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Washington	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
11	7-4	TENNST	GRNBAY	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
12	7-5	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Italya Carter	+0.0
13	8-5	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
14	9-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
15	9-6	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Washington	set Italya Carter	+0.0
16	10-6	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Diane Pichelman	+0.0
17	10-7	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Italya Carter	+0.0
18	11-7	TENNST	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik		+0.0
19	12-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.0
20	13-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
21	14-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Alexa Hernandez		+0.0
22	14-8	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Julia Culpepper	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
23	15-8	TENNST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
24	16-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Sari Marks	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
25	17-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
26	17-9	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
27	18-9	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
28	19-9	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Sydni Poston	+0.0
29	19-10	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
30	19-11	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Italya Carter	+0.0
31	20-11	TENNST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
32	21-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Sari Marks	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
33	22-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Macy Kline	+0.0
34	22-12	GRNBAY	TENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Washington	set Macy Kline	+0.0
35	23-12	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
36	24-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.0
37	24-13	GRNBAY	TENNST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
38	25-13	TENNST	GRNBAY	Kill	Jessica Kurpeikis	set Sari Marks	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.