FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Wright St. def. Green Bay 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Wright St. 79.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Wright St. beat visiting Green Bay 3-0 (26-24, 26-24, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Haley Robinson and Mya Ayro led Wright St. with 9 kills each; Green Bay's Kelsey Justman had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set123Sets
GRNBAY2424220
WRIGHT2626253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Wright St. won all three sets by three or fewer.

No single rally moved win probability more than 6.4 points. Green Bay peaked at 32% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Wright St. at 80%.

No one stat built this: no phase gap reached 8 points, .080 hitting or a 5-point run.

Wright St. above 50Green Bay belowMax swing 6.4%

Green BayWright St.

Hitting
Green Bay .239·Wright St. .216
Aces
Green Bay 4·Wright St. 5
Serve err
Green Bay 15·Wright St. 10
Blocks
Green Bay 4·Wright St. 70 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Green Bay 58·Wright St. 57

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Wright St. above 50 · Green Bay below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+6.4% WRIGHTrally 147 · set 3

Biggest swing: 6.4% to Wright St. — set 2, GRNBAY 24-24 WRIGHT. Kill by Mya Ayro (set by Taygan Corstange). WRIGHT win probability 80% → 86%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GRNBAY 17.6%82.4% WRIGHT

Green Bay wins

3-0
2.7%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
9.1%

Wright St. wins

3-0
34.1%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.5%
GRNBAY break %
39.1% vs this opp
WRIGHT break %
46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Mya AyroKill+6.4%

    Kill by Mya Ayro (set by Taygan Corstange)

    Set 2 · GRNBAY 24-24 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 80% → 86%

  2. 02
    Alexa HernandezAttack error+6.3%

    Attack error by Alexa Hernandez

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 24-26 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 83% → 89%

  3. 03
    Wright St.Ace+5.8%

    Wright St. ace on Kennedy Schmitz

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 22-23 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 76% → 82%

  4. 04

    Kill by Haley Robinson (set by Lauren Yacobucci)

    Set 2 · GRNBAY 24-25 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 86% → 92%

  5. 05

    Kill by Haley Robinson

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 23-24 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 77% → 83%

  6. 06

    Kill by Diane Pichelman

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 24-24 WRIGHT · GRNBAY 17% → 23%

  7. 07
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+5.4%

    Point Wright St. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 24-25 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 77% → 83%

  8. 08
    Haley RobinsonAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Haley Robinson

    Set 1 · GRNBAY 22-21 WRIGHT · GRNBAY 23% → 28%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313327.3700008100013
39030.3000210002112
37417.176000200218
3318.250000000214
3125-.200330370010.51.5
3000–114710001
37326.15410030010.57.5
3000–1141330001
3000–3011800000
2000–002000000
Team totals4013113.2393941558508470
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39119.42100000111.510.5
38221.2860010004210
38336.139001121010.58.5
36113.385203611017
3315.4003312900215
3000–311610001
39831.0320003002110
3000–3212110002
3000–011000001
Team totals4316125.21641510574210777

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Green Bay vs Wright St.

Season series · Wright St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 GRNBAY · WRIGHT 6

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 GRNBAYWRIGHT 3

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 GRNBAYWRIGHT 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 GRNBAYWRIGHT 4

Bars above the line = Wright St. leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Green Bay

No clean sets to split.

Wright St.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

147 rallies

#GRNBAY-WRIGHTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Macy Kline+1.8
21-1GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errKirsten Fish+1.3
32-1WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
42-2GRNBAYWRIGHTBlockedKirsten Fishblk Reilly Zegunis, Mya Ayro+1.3
53-2WRIGHTGRNBAY×4Serve errWright St.+1.5
64-2GRNBAYGRNBAY×4Serve errGreen Bay+2.1
75-2GRNBAYGRNBAY×4Attack errMya Ayro+2.2
86-2GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillDiane Pichelmanset Kennedy Schmitz+2.2
96-3GRNBAYWRIGHTBad setAlexa Hernandez+1.4
106-4WRIGHTWRIGHTKillMya Ayroset Lauren Yacobucci+2.0
117-4WRIGHTGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.8
128-4GRNBAY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
139-4GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelman+2.2
149-5GRNBAYWRIGHTKillAbigail Knightset Taygan Corstange+1.4
1510-5WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justman+1.7
1610-6GRNBAYWRIGHTKillAbigail Knightset Greta McKee+1.4
1710-7WRIGHTWRIGHTServe errWright St.+2.0
1811-7WRIGHTGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.9
1911-8WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.5
2011-9WRIGHTWRIGHTKillReilly Zegunisset Lauren Yacobucci+2.3
2112-9WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKirsten Fish+2.0
2212-10GRNBAYWRIGHTKillReilly Zegunis+1.7
2313-10WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justman+2.1
2413-11GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errKelsey Justman+1.8
2514-11WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+2.2
2614-12GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+1.8
2715-12WRIGHTGRNBAYAttack errMya Ayro+2.3
2815-13GRNBAYWRIGHTKillAbigail Knightset Lauren Yacobucci+1.9
2916-13WRIGHTGRNBAYAttack errKatie Sowko+2.4
3016-14WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.9
3116-15WRIGHTWRIGHT×3AceWright St.aced Kennedy Schmitz+2.9
3216-16WRIGHTWRIGHT×3KillReilly Zegunisset Lauren Yacobucci+3.0
3317-16WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+2.6
3417-17GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+2.4
3517-18WRIGHTWRIGHTBlockedGillian Koningblk Reilly Zegunis, Lauren Yacobucci+3.2
3618-18WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+2.5
3719-18GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+3.9
38–3920-19GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
4020-20GRNBAYWRIGHTBlockedKirsten Fishblk Kirsten Fish, Reilly Zegunis, Mya Ayro+3.0
41–4221-21GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
4322-21GRNBAYGRNBAYAttack errHaley Robinson+5.4
4422-22GRNBAYWRIGHTKillMya Ayroset Lauren Yacobucci+3.8
4522-23WRIGHTWRIGHTAceWright St.aced Kennedy Schmitz+5.8
4623-23WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+4.3
4723-24GRNBAYWRIGHTKillHaley Robinson+5.4
4824-24WRIGHTGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelman+5.4
4924-25WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.4
5024-26WRIGHTWRIGHTAttack errAlexa Hernandez+6.3
Set 2
10-1WRIGHTWRIGHTAttack errOlivia Neumann+1.2
21-1WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.0
31-2GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+0.9
4–52-3GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
62-4GRNBAYWRIGHTKillHaley Robinsonset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
73-4WRIGHTGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
84-4GRNBAYGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+1.4
94-5GRNBAYWRIGHT×6KillHaley Robinson+1.0
104-6WRIGHTWRIGHT×6KillReilly Zegunisset Lauren Yacobucci+1.3
114-7WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
124-8WRIGHTWRIGHT×6KillKatie Sowko+1.0
134-9WRIGHTWRIGHT×6AceWright St.aced Kennedy Schmitz+0.8
144-10WRIGHTWRIGHT×6KillKatie Sowko+0.6
15–166-10GRNBAY 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
176-11GRNBAYWRIGHTKillAbigail Knight+0.6
187-11WRIGHTGRNBAYAttack errKatie Sowko+0.6
197-12GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+0.6
208-12WRIGHTGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
219-12GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Abigail Knight+1.0
229-13GRNBAYWRIGHTKillLauren Yacobucciset Abigail Knight+0.8
2310-13WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justman+0.7
2411-13GRNBAYGRNBAYServe errGreen Bay+1.3
25–2612-14GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
2713-14GRNBAYGRNBAYAttack errMya Ayro+1.6
2813-15GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errMya Ayro+1.3
2914-15WRIGHTGRNBAY×4KillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
3015-15GRNBAY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
3116-15GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillAlexa Hernandezset Macy Kline+2.4
3217-15GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillGillian Koning+2.6
3317-16GRNBAYWRIGHTKillKatie Sowkoset Greta McKee+1.7
3417-17WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
3518-17WRIGHTGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.1
3619-17GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Taygan Corstange+2.9
3719-18WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.9
3819-19WRIGHTWRIGHTAttack errGillian Koning+2.8
3920-19WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+2.5
4021-19GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+3.4
4121-20GRNBAYWRIGHTKillReilly Zegunisset Lauren Yacobucci+2.1
4222-20WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+2.9
4322-21GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+2.2
4422-22WRIGHTWRIGHTAceWright St.aced Kendall Schara+3.9
4523-22GRNBAY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
4624-22GRNBAYGRNBAYAttack errMya Ayro+5.2
4724-23GRNBAYWRIGHT×4KillHaley Robinson+2.2
4824-24WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillMya Ayroset Taygan Corstange+6.4
4924-25WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillHaley Robinsonset Lauren Yacobucci+5.5
5024-26WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillHaley Robinsonset Lauren Yacobucci+4.7
Set 3
10-1GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+0.5
21-1WRIGHTGRNBAYAttack errReilly Zegunis+0.5
31-2GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+0.5
42-2WRIGHTGRNBAYServe errWright St.+0.5
52-3GRNBAYWRIGHTKillHaley Robinsonset Lauren Yacobucci+0.5
63-3WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
73-4GRNBAYWRIGHTKillAbigail Knightset Lauren Yacobucci+0.5
84-4WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
95-4GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Greta McKee+0.8
105-5GRNBAYWRIGHTBlockedAlexa Hernandezblk Haley Robinson+0.6
116-5WRIGHTGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
126-6GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errGillian Koning+0.6
136-7WRIGHTWRIGHTKillLauren Yacobucciset Taygan Corstange+0.8
147-7WRIGHTGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
157-8GRNBAYWRIGHTServe errGreen Bay+0.6
168-8WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
179-8GRNBAY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.9
189-9GRNBAYWRIGHTKillReilly Zegunisset Lauren Yacobucci+0.7
1910-9WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKirsten Fish+0.7
2011-9GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Katie Sowko+1.0
21–2212-10GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
2312-11GRNBAYWRIGHTBlockedKelsey Justmanblk Abigail Knight+0.7
2413-11WRIGHTGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelman+0.9
2513-12WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
2613-13WRIGHTWRIGHT×3KillKatie Sowko+1.0
2713-14WRIGHTWRIGHT×3AceWright St.aced Kelsey Justman+1.0
2814-14WRIGHTGRNBAY×3Serve errWright St.+0.8
2915-14GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Attack errAbigail Knight+1.2
3016-14GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillGillian Koning+1.3
3116-15GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errGillian Koning+0.8
3217-15WRIGHTGRNBAYKillGillian Koningset Alexa Hernandez+1.0
3318-15GRNBAYGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumann+1.3
3418-16GRNBAYWRIGHTKillKatie Sowkoset Lauren Yacobucci+0.8
35–3619-17GRNBAY · WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
3719-18GRNBAYWRIGHTKillLauren Yacobucciset Greta McKee+1.0
3819-19WRIGHTWRIGHTAttack errKirsten Fish+1.5
3920-19WRIGHTGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
4020-20GRNBAYWRIGHTAttack errKelsey Justman+1.2
4121-20WRIGHTGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelman+1.4
4221-21WRIGHT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
4321-22WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillMya Ayroset Lauren Yacobucci+1.9
4421-23WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillMya Ayroset Lauren Yacobucci+1.7
4521-24WRIGHTWRIGHT×4KillHaley Robinson+1.1
4622-24WRIGHTGRNBAYAttack errKatie Sowko+0.3
4722-25GRNBAYWRIGHTKillMya Ayroset Lauren Yacobucci+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).