RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 0.0% to FDU — set 1, FDU 9-10 YALE. Ava Poinsett stuffed by Mila Samardzija & Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez & Alessia Zampieri. YALE win probability 100% → 100%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
FDU wins
Yale wins
- FDU break %
- 32.6% vs this opp
- YALE break %
- 54.9% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Ava PoinsettAttack error+0.0%
Ava Poinsett stuffed by Mila Samardzija & Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez & Alessia Zampieri
Set 1 · FDU 9-10 YALE · FDU 0% → 0%
- 02Betsy GoodenowKill+0.0%
Kill by Betsy Goodenow (set by Kalyssa Taggart)
Set 1 · FDU 9-12 YALE · YALE 100% → 100%
- 03Betsy GoodenowKill+0.0%
Kill by Betsy Goodenow (set by Kalyssa Taggart)
Set 1 · FDU 9-11 YALE · YALE 100% → 100%
- 04
- 05
- 06
- 07Mila SamardzijaKill+0.0%
Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Nora Marginean)
Set 1 · FDU 5-6 YALE · FDU 0% → 0%
- 08
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | -.083 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | .500 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 22 | .045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | .125 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | .182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -.200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 19 | 15 | 98 | .041 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4.5 | 43 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 21 | .286 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 26 | .231 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| 3 | 9 | 2 | 21 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | .286 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 8.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .333 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | .571 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 44 | 12 | 112 | .286 | 42 | 10 | 9 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 75 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
15-25
Set 2
13-25
Set 3
15-25
Bars above the line = Yale leads, below = FDU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
FDU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60%6/10 | 25%2/8 |
| 2 | 43%6/14 | 25%2/8 |
| 3 | 75%6/8 | 14%1/7 |
| 4 | 27%6/22 | 33%3/9 |
| 5 | 42%5/12 | 0%0/6 |
| 6 | 57%4/7 | 29%2/7 |
| All | 45%33/73 | 22%10/45 |
Yale
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70%7/10 | 38%3/8 |
| 2 | 86%6/7 | 33%3/9 |
| 3 | 75%6/8 | 54%7/13 |
| 4 | 75%6/8 | 63%10/16 |
| 5 | 83%5/6 | 67%10/15 |
| 6 | 83%5/6 | 58%7/12 |
| All | 78%35/45 | 55%40/73 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
118 rallies
Rally log
| # | FDU-YALE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Arya Jue | +0.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Ava DeGuzman | set Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 |
| 4 | 1-3 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 5 | 1-4 | YALE | YALE | Attack err | Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | +0.0 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Mila Samardzija | set Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 |
| 7 | 2-5 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 8 | 3-5 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Skylar Jackson | +0.0 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | FDU | FDU | Attack err | Cam Bolane | +0.0 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | FDU | YALE | Serve err | FDU server | +0.0 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Mila Samardzija | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 12 | 5-7 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Cam Bolane | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 13 | 5-8 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 14 | 6-8 | YALE | FDU | Bad set | Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 16 | 7-9 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Ava DeGuzman | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 17 | 7-10 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 18 | 8-10 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Laurece Abraham | +0.0 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | FDU | FDU | Attack err | Ava Poinsett | blk Mila Samardzija, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 |
| 20 | 9-11 | FDU | YALE×3 | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 21 | 9-12 | YALE | YALE×3 | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 22 | 9-13 | YALE | YALE×3 | Ace | YALE server | aced Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 |
| 23 | 10-13 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Ava Poinsett | blk Alessia Zampieri, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | +0.0 |
| 24 | 10-14 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 25 | 10-15 | YALE | YALE | Attack err | Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 | |
| 26 | 11-15 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | set Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 |
| 27 | 11-16 | FDU | YALE×7 | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 28 | 11-17 | YALE | YALE×7 | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 29 | 11-18 | YALE | YALE×7 | Kill | Kalyssa Taggart | set Cam Bolane | +0.0 |
| 30 | 11-19 | YALE | YALE×7 | Ace | YALE server | aced Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 |
| 31 | 11-20 | YALE | YALE×7 | Ace | YALE server | aced Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 |
| 32 | 11-21 | YALE | YALE×7 | Bad set | Nora Marginean | +0.0 | |
| 33 | 11-22 | YALE | YALE×7 | Ace | YALE server | aced Brooke Kamelchuk | +0.0 |
| 34 | 12-22 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Skylar Jackson | +0.0 | |
| 35 | 12-23 | FDU | YALE | Attack err | Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 | |
| 36 | 13-23 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Nina Jasiecka | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 37 | 14-23 | FDU | FDU | Attack err | Cam Bolane | blk Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 |
| 38 | 14-24 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Isabel Patterson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 39 | 15-24 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 40 | 15-25 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Alessia Zampieri | set Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 |
| 2 | 1-1 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Kalyssa Taggart | set Betsy Goodenow | +0.0 |
| 4 | 2-2 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Isabella Scarfone | set Madeline Joyce | +0.0 |
| 5 | 2-3 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Yuri Park | +0.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Nina Jasiecka | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 7 | 4-3 | FDU | FDU | Attack err | Betsy Goodenow | +0.0 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | FDU | YALE×3 | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 9 | 4-5 | YALE | YALE×3 | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 10 | 4-6 | YALE | YALE×3 | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Yuri Park | +0.0 |
| 11 | 5-6 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Betsy Goodenow | +0.0 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 13 | 6-7 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Alessia Zampieri | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 14 | 7-7 | FDU | FDU | Kill | Ava DeGuzman | +0.0 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | FDU | YALE×3 | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 16 | 7-9 | YALE | YALE×3 | Attack err | Ava DeGuzman | blk Skylar Jackson, Gaby Stasys | +0.0 |
| 17 | 7-10 | YALE | YALE×3 | Ace | YALE server | aced Madeline Joyce | +0.0 |
| 18 | 8-10 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | FDU | YALE×3 | Attack err | Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | blk Gaby Stasys, Skylar Jackson | +0.0 |
| 20 | 8-12 | YALE | YALE×3 | Attack err | Mila Samardzija | +0.0 | |
| 21 | 8-13 | YALE | YALE×3 | Attack err | Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | FDU | FDU | Kill | Ava DeGuzman | set Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 |
| 24 | 10-14 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Betsy Goodenow | set Ava Poinsett | +0.0 |
| 25 | 11-14 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 26 | 11-15 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 27 | 12-15 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Nina Jasiecka | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 28 | 12-16 | FDU | YALE×7 | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 29 | 12-17 | YALE | YALE×7 | Attack err | Angela Marchetto | blk Laurece Abraham, Skylar Jackson | +0.0 |
| 30 | 12-18 | YALE | YALE×7 | Kill | Laurece Abraham | +0.0 | |
| 31 | 12-19 | YALE | YALE×7 | Attack err | Nina Jasiecka | +0.0 | |
| 32 | 12-20 | YALE | YALE×7 | Ace | YALE server | aced Katarina Trutina | +0.0 |
| 33 | 12-21 | YALE | YALE×7 | Attack err | Katarina Trutina | +0.0 | |
| 34 | 12-22 | YALE | YALE×7 | Ace | YALE server | aced Madeline Joyce | +0.0 |
| 35 | 13-22 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Agnes Shakirova | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 36 | 13-23 | FDU | YALE×3 | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 37 | 13-24 | YALE | YALE×3 | Attack err | Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 | |
| 38 | 13-25 | YALE | YALE×3 | Ace | YALE server | aced Mila Samardzija | +0.0 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Gaby Stasys | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Isabella Scarfone | set Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | +0.0 |
| 4 | 1-3 | FDU | YALE×4 | Attack err | Mila Samardzija | blk Kalyssa Taggart, Laurece Abraham | +0.0 |
| 5 | 1-4 | YALE | YALE×4 | Kill | Laurece Abraham | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 6 | 1-5 | YALE | YALE×4 | Ace | YALE server | aced Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | +0.0 |
| 7 | 1-6 | YALE | YALE×4 | Attack err | Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 | |
| 8 | 2-6 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 9 | 2-7 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 10 | 3-7 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Skylar Jackson | blk Angela Marchetto, Alessia Zampieri | +0.0 |
| 11 | 3-8 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Naya Salfiti | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 12 | 3-9 | YALE | YALE | Attack err | Agnes Shakirova | +0.0 | |
| 13 | 4-9 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Mila Samardzija | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 14 | 4-10 | FDU | YALE×4 | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 15 | 4-11 | YALE | YALE×4 | Attack err | Agnes Shakirova | +0.0 | |
| 16 | 4-12 | YALE | YALE×4 | Attack err | Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | +0.0 | |
| 17 | 4-13 | YALE | YALE×4 | Kill | Gaby Stasys | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 18 | 5-13 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 19 | 5-14 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Skylar Jackson | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 20 | 6-14 | YALE | FDU×3 | Kill | Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez | set Nora Marginean | +0.0 |
| 21 | 7-14 | FDU | FDU×3 | Kill | Kaylie Jensen | set Isabella Scarfone | +0.0 |
| 22 | 8-14 | FDU | FDU×3 | Ace | FDU server | aced Yuri Park | +0.0 |
| 23 | 8-15 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Gaby Stasys | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 24 | 9-15 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 25 | 9-16 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 26 | 9-17 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Naya Salfiti | set Yuri Park | +0.0 |
| 27 | 10-17 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 28 | 11-17 | FDU | FDU | Attack err | Laurece Abraham | +0.0 | |
| 29 | 11-18 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Ava Poinsett | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 30 | 11-19 | YALE | YALE | Attack err | Ava Poinsett | +0.0 | |
| 31 | 12-19 | YALE | FDU | Kill | Isabella Scarfone | set Madeline Joyce | +0.0 |
| 32 | 13-19 | FDU | FDU | Ace | FDU server | aced Isabel Patterson | +0.0 |
| 33 | 13-20 | FDU | YALE | Serve err | FDU server | +0.0 | |
| 34 | 13-21 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Gaby Stasys | set Kalyssa Taggart | +0.0 |
| 35 | 14-21 | YALE | FDU | Attack err | Isabel Patterson | +0.0 | |
| 36 | 14-22 | FDU | YALE | Serve err | FDU server | +0.0 | |
| 37 | 14-23 | YALE | YALE | Kill | Isabel Patterson | +0.0 | |
| 38 | 15-23 | YALE | FDU | Serve err | YALE server | +0.0 | |
| 39 | 15-24 | FDU | YALE | Kill | Isabel Patterson | set Ava Poinsett | +0.0 |
| 40 | 15-25 | YALE | YALE | Ace | YALE server | aced Katarina Trutina | +0.0 |
Score shown after each rally, FDU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.