FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

0:3

HomeBIG-12

TCU def. Yale 3–0

(25-20, 25-18, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
YALE	20	18	22	0
TCU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TCU above 50 · YALE below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Yale — set 1, YALE 5-3 TCU. Kill by Skylar Jackson (set by Arya Jue). TCU win probability 86% → 84%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

YALE 12.4%87.6% TCU

Yale wins

3-0

1.7%

3-1

3.9%

3-2

6.8%

TCU wins

3-0

40.7%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.3%

YALE break %: 37.4% vs this opp
TCU break %: 46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Skylar JacksonKill+1.7%
Kill by Skylar Jackson (set by Arya Jue)
Set 1 · YALE 5-3 TCU · YALE 14% → 16%
02
Ava PoinsettAttack error+1.7%
Ava Poinsett stuffed by De'Andrea McMillian & Jalyn Gibson
Set 1 · YALE 8-8 TCU · TCU 85% → 86%
03
Betsy GoodenowAttack error+1.6%
Betsy Goodenow stuffed by Kinsley Young & Evan Hendrix
Set 1 · YALE 9-10 TCU · TCU 86% → 88%
04
Becca KelleyAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Becca Kelley
Set 1 · YALE 4-3 TCU · YALE 13% → 14%
05
Kinsley YoungKill+1.5%
Kill by Kinsley Young
Set 1 · YALE 10-12 TCU · TCU 88% → 89%
06
Becca KelleyAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Becca Kelley
Set 1 · YALE 1-0 TCU · YALE 12% → 14%
07
TCU serverService error+1.4%
TCU service error
Set 1 · YALE 8-6 TCU · YALE 15% → 16%
08
Becca KelleyKill+1.4%
Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Reese Wilburn)
Set 1 · YALE 12-15 TCU · TCU 89% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Yaleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Skylar JacksonOH	3	9	4	24	.208	1	0	0	6	2	2	2	3	12
4Laurece AbrahamMB	3	9	1	20	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	11.5
33Betsy GoodenowOH	3	4	4	25	.000	0	0	1	4	0	0	4	2	6
2Ava PoinsettOH	3	6	6	21	.000	2	0	3	9	1	0	0	0	6
1Kalyssa TaggartS	3	1	0	3	.333	23	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Cam BolaneMB	2	0	1	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
11Yuri ParkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Arya JueL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
20Gaby StasysMB	1	2	0	4	.500	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
5Naya SalfitiOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
22Bethanie WuS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Mila MijailovicOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	16	108	.148	29	2	8	33	3	3	14	10	60

TCUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Becca KelleyOH	3	12	4	25	.320	0	1	1	11	1	1	0.5	13.5
10Kinsley YoungMB	3	7	1	16	.375	0	0	1	2	0	4	2	9
5Jalyn GibsonOH	3	8	2	17	.353	1	0	1	9	1	1	0.5	8.5
17Rosemary ArcherS	3	1	2	6	-.167	35	0	2	7	0	0	0	1
2Evan HendrixOH	2	12	2	25	.400	0	1	1	6	0	1	0.5	13.5
4De'Andrea McMillianMB	2	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
7Reese RobinsMB	3	6	5	12	.083	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	7
0Alice VolpeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
9Lauren MurphyOH	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	2
16Jaylen ClarkL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
13Molly McCarthyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
6Reese WilburnS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
8Mia LeeMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Morgan HollomanMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	19	110	.264	45	3	6	52	2	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 YALE · TCU 4

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 YALETCU 2

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 YALETCU 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 YALETCU 4

Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Yale leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Yale

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	27%3/11
2	62%8/13	33%4/12
3	58%7/12	47%7/15
4	43%6/14	30%3/10
5	60%6/10	0%0/6
6	50%6/12	25%2/8
All	56%41/73	31%19/62

TCU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	54%7/13
2	73%8/11	20%2/10
3	57%8/14	47%7/15
4	78%7/9	53%8/15
5	100%6/6	50%6/12
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	69%43/62	44%32/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	YALE-TCU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+1.4
2	1-1	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.9
3	2-1	TCU	YALE	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.1
4	2-2	YALE	TCU	Attack err	Laurece Abraham		+1.0
5	2-3	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow		+1.3
6	3-3	TCU	YALE×3	Serve err	TCU server		+1.0
7	4-3	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+1.5
8	5-3	YALE	YALE×3	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Arya Jue	+1.7
9	5-4	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+1.1
10	6-4	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+1.3
11	6-5	YALE	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+1.1
12	7-5	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Rosemary Archer	blk Skylar Jackson	+1.3
13	7-6	YALE	TCU	Kill	De'Andrea McMillian	set Rosemary Archer	+1.2
14	8-6	TCU	YALE	Serve err	TCU server		+1.4
15	8-7	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+1.2
16	8-8	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Ava Poinsett	blk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson	+1.7
17	9-8	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.3
18	9-9	YALE	TCU	Kill	Rosemary Archer		+1.2
19	9-10	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow	blk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix	+1.6
20	10-10	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.2
21	10-11	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+1.2
22	10-12	TCU	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young		+1.5
23	11-12	TCU	YALE	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.1
24	11-13	YALE	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+1.1
25	12-13	TCU	YALE	Serve err	TCU server		+1.1
26	12-14	YALE	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+1.2
27	12-15	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Reese Wilburn	+1.4
28	13-15	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Reese Robins		+0.9
29	13-16	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Reese Wilburn	+1.0
30	13-17	TCU	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.1
31	14-17	TCU	YALE	Serve err	TCU server		+0.7
32	14-18	YALE	TCU	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow	blk De'Andrea McMillian, Becca Kelley	+0.8
33	14-19	TCU	TCU	Ace	TCU server	aced Skylar Jackson	+0.8
34	15-19	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.4
35	15-20	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
36	16-20	TCU	YALE	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.4
37	17-20	YALE	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.8
38	17-21	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+0.8
39	17-22	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.7
40	18-22	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.2
41	18-23	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
42	18-24	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Ava Poinsett		+0.2
43	19-24	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+0.0
44	20-24	YALE	YALE	Bad set	Reese Wilburn		+0.1
45	20-25	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Ava Poinsett		+0.8
2	0-2	TCU	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Jalyn Gibson	+0.7
3	1-2	TCU	YALE	Kill	Kalyssa Taggart	set Ava Poinsett	+0.6
4	1-3	YALE	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
5	2-3	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.6
6	2-4	YALE	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
7	2-5	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+0.7
8	2-6	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
9	3-6	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.4
10	4-6	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Jalyn Gibson		+0.7
11	4-7	YALE	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
12	4-8	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
13	4-9	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
14	5-9	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.3
15	5-10	YALE	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+0.3
16	5-11	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Kinsley Young, Reese Robins	+0.4
17	6-11	TCU	YALE	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Skylar Jackson	+0.2
18	6-12	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Jaylen Clark	+0.3
19	6-13	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Mia Lee	+0.3
20	7-13	TCU	YALE	Serve err	TCU server		+0.1
21	7-14	YALE	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.2
22	8-14	TCU	YALE×4	Attack err	Mia Lee	blk Laurece Abraham	+0.1
23	9-14	YALE	YALE×4	Kill	Ava Poinsett		+0.3
24	10-14	YALE	YALE×4	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.4
25	11-14	YALE	YALE×4	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.6
26	11-15	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
27	12-15	TCU	YALE×3	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.5
28	13-15	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Lauren Murphy	blk Skylar Jackson	+0.9
29	14-15	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Lauren Murphy	blk Laurece Abraham, Skylar Jackson	+1.2
30	14-16	YALE	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.9
31	15-16	TCU	YALE	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.9
32	15-17	YALE	TCU×4	Serve err	YALE server		+0.9
33	15-18	TCU	TCU×4	Attack err	Ava Poinsett		+1.1
34	15-19	TCU	TCU×4	Attack err	Cam Bolane		+0.8
35	15-20	TCU	TCU×4	Ace	TCU server	aced Ava Poinsett	+0.5
36	16-20	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Cam Bolane, Betsy Goodenow	+0.2
37	16-21	YALE	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.3
38	16-22	TCU	TCU×3	Ace	TCU server	aced Skylar Jackson	+0.2
39	16-23	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Reese Robins	set Jaylen Clark	+0.1
40	17-23	TCU	YALE	Kill	Naya Salfiti	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
41	17-24	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
42	18-24	TCU	YALE	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
43	18-25	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	YALE	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.3
2	1-1	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Reese Robins	blk Betsy Goodenow, Laurece Abraham	+0.3
3	1-2	YALE	TCU	Serve err	YALE server		+0.3
4	1-3	TCU	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young		+0.4
5	2-3	TCU	YALE×3	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.3
6	3-3	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Rosemary Archer	blk Gaby Stasys, Betsy Goodenow	+0.5
7	4-3	YALE	YALE×3	Kill	Gaby Stasys	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.5
8	4-4	YALE	TCU	Attack err	Skylar Jackson		+0.4
9	5-4	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.4
10	5-5	YALE	TCU×3	Attack err	Ava Poinsett		+0.4
11	5-6	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
12	5-7	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	De'Andrea McMillian	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
13	6-7	TCU	YALE	Kill	Gaby Stasys	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.3
14	6-8	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.3
15	7-8	TCU	YALE×3	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.3
16	8-8	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Reese Robins		+0.5
17	9-8	YALE	YALE×3	Ace	YALE server	aced Becca Kelley	+0.6
18	9-9	YALE	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
19	10-9	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Reese Robins		+0.5
20	11-9	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Jalyn Gibson		+0.7
21	11-10	YALE	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
22	12-10	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Reese Robins	blk Laurece Abraham, Betsy Goodenow	+0.6
23	12-11	YALE	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
24	12-12	TCU	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.7
25	13-12	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.6
26	14-12	YALE	YALE	Ace	YALE server	aced Jalyn Gibson	+0.8
27	14-13	YALE	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
28	15-13	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.6
29	16-13	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Kinsley Young	blk Gaby Stasys, Skylar Jackson	+0.9
30	16-14	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
31	17-14	TCU	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Ava Poinsett	+0.7
32	17-15	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
33	18-15	TCU	YALE	Attack err	Becca Kelley	blk Kalyssa Taggart, Gaby Stasys	+0.7
34	18-16	YALE	TCU×4	Serve err	YALE server		+0.6
35	18-17	TCU	TCU×4	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Alice Volpe	+0.9
36	18-18	TCU	TCU×4	Kill	Reese Robins	set Rosemary Archer	+1.0
37	18-19	TCU	TCU×4	Attack err	Ava Poinsett	blk De'Andrea McMillian, Reese Robins	+0.9
38	19-19	TCU	YALE	Serve err	TCU server		+0.7
39	20-19	YALE	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.2
40	20-20	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.8
41	20-21	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow		+1.1
42	21-21	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.9
43	21-22	YALE	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.9
44	22-22	TCU	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+1.0
45	22-23	YALE	TCU×3	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.1
46	22-24	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young	+1.3
47	22-25	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Yale first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.