FinalTue, Sep 1, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeMAC

Toledo def. Purdue Fort Wayne 3–0

(25-14, 25-17, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
IPFW	14	17	21	0
TOLEDO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · IPFW below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Purdue Fort Wayne — set 2, IPFW 9-6 TOLEDO. Kill by Avery Parris (set by Haiden Means). TOLEDO win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

IPFW 4.2%95.8% TOLEDO

Purdue Fort Wayne wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.6%

Toledo wins

3-0

57.9%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

9.0%

IPFW break %: 35.6% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 48.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Avery ParrisKill+0.7%
Kill by Avery Parris (set by Haiden Means)
Set 2 · IPFW 9-6 TOLEDO · IPFW 3% → 4%
02
Riley RosneckAttack error+0.6%
Riley Rosneck stuffed by Kayla Ozanich & Sierra Pertzborn
Set 2 · IPFW 10-9 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 96% → 97%
03
IPFW serverAce+0.6%
Purdue Fort Wayne ace on Ava Siefke
Set 2 · IPFW 13-13 TOLEDO · IPFW 2% → 3%
04
Haiden MeansBad set+0.5%
Bad set by Haiden Means
Set 2 · IPFW 10-10 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 97%
05
Grace FreibergerBad set+0.5%
Bad set by Grace Freiberger
Set 2 · IPFW 10-7 TOLEDO · IPFW 4% → 4%
06
Lilly MerkAttack error+0.5%
Lilly Merk stuffed by Bella DiBuono
Set 2 · IPFW 5-3 TOLEDO · IPFW 3% → 3%
07
TOLEDO serverAce+0.5%
Toledo ace on Team
Set 2 · IPFW 13-15 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 98% → 98%
08
TOLEDO serverAce+0.5%
Toledo ace on Team
Set 2 · IPFW 10-11 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Purdue Fort Wayneaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Riley RosneckOH	3	8	5	40	.075	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Trinity RyeOH	3	4	3	30	.033	0	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Mya PlemonsMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Lili SmithS	3	2	1	3	.333	13	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	2
15Bella DiBuonoMB	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	2
11Stephani WinzelerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Miona DimitricOH	3	5	3	17	.118	1	0	3	11	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
7Avery ParrisOPP	3	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
10Haiden MeansS	3	1	0	2	.500	5	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
3Becky BarrettDS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	1	0	20	0	0	0	0	1
2Ava TesterS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	13	107	.112	23	2	8	49	7	1	6	4	52

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	12	1	24	.458	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	1	13
10Kayla OzanichMB	3	7	1	12	.500	0	2	5	1	0	0	2	1	10
23Lilly MerkMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
22Sierra PertzbornMB	3	7	0	19	.368	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	9
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	3	1	18	.111	2	1	1	14	1	0	0	0	4
15Madelyn BachS	3	0	1	2	-.500	19	2	0	8	0	0	0	0	2
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	9	3	20	.300	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
3Janelle GreenS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	2	1	12	0	0	0	0	3
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
21Meg JarrettL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	9	108	.333	42	7	13	59	2	1	14	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 IPFW · TOLEDO 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 IPFWTOLEDO 6

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 IPFWTOLEDO 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 IPFWTOLEDO 5

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Purdue Fort Wayne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Purdue Fort Wayne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	40%4/10
2	39%7/18	30%3/10
3	60%6/10	36%4/11
4	86%6/7	25%2/8
5	56%5/9	0%0/6
6	31%4/13	44%4/9
All	48%35/73	31%17/54

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	64%9/14
2	58%7/12	56%9/16
3	88%7/8	61%11/18
4	75%6/8	14%1/7
5	75%6/8	33%3/9
6	67%4/6	56%5/9
All	69%37/54	52%38/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	IPFW-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	IPFW	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
2	0-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
3	0-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Riley Rosneck	blk Lilly Merk, Ava Siefke	+0.4
4	0-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Becky Barrett	+0.3
5	0-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
6	1-5	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.2
7	1-6	IPFW	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Lili Smith	blk Sierra Pertzborn, Lilly Merk	+0.2
8	1-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.2
9	1-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.1
10	2-8	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.1
11	3-8	IPFW	IPFW	Ace	IPFW server	aced Jessica Costlow	+0.2
12	3-9	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.1
13	4-9	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
14	4-10	IPFW	TOLEDO	Attack err	Riley Rosneck	blk Lilly Merk	+0.1
15	4-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Miona Dimitric	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sophie Catalano	+0.1
16	5-11	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
17	5-12	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
18	6-12	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.1
19	7-12	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.2
20	7-13	IPFW	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
21	7-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+0.1
22	7-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Bad set	Becky Barrett		+0.1
23	7-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
24	7-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
25	7-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+0.0
26	8-18	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Lili Smith	set Becky Barrett	+0.0
27	8-19	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
28	9-19	TOLEDO	IPFW×3	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.0
29	10-19	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Sierra Pertzborn	+0.0
30	11-19	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Lili Smith	set Miona Dimitric	+0.0
31	11-20	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
32	11-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.0
33	12-21	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.0
34	12-22	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.0
35	13-22	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
36	13-23	IPFW	TOLEDO	Attack err	Miona Dimitric		+0.0
37	14-23	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Haiden Means	+0.0
38	14-24	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.0
39	14-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Becky Barrett	+0.3
2	2-0	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.5
3	2-1	IPFW	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
4	2-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Trinity Rye	blk Sierra Pertzborn, Lilly Merk	+0.4
5	2-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.3
6	3-3	TOLEDO	IPFW×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.3
7	4-3	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.4
8	5-3	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Lilly Merk	blk Bella DiBuono	+0.5
9	5-4	IPFW	TOLEDO	Attack err	Miona Dimitric	blk Sierra Pertzborn, Lilly Merk	+0.3
10	6-4	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
11	6-5	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.3
12	7-5	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
13	7-6	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.4
14	8-6	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Haiden Means	+0.5
15	9-6	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Avery Parris	set Haiden Means	+0.7
16	9-7	IPFW	TOLEDO	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.4
17	10-7	TOLEDO	IPFW	Bad set	Grace Freiberger		+0.5
18	10-8	IPFW	TOLEDO×4	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.4
19	10-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Riley Rosneck	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	+0.6
20	10-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Bad set	Haiden Means		+0.5
21	10-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.5
22	11-11	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
23	11-12	IPFW	TOLEDO	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.4
24	11-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Bella DiBuono	blk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk	+0.4
25	12-13	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.3
26	13-13	IPFW	IPFW	Ace	IPFW server	aced Ava Siefke	+0.6
27	13-14	IPFW	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
28	13-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.5
29	13-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.4
30	13-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
31	14-17	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.2
32	14-18	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
33	15-18	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
34	15-19	IPFW	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.2
35	15-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.2
36	15-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+0.1
37	16-21	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Haiden Means	+0.0
38	17-21	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.1
39	17-22	IPFW	TOLEDO×4	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.1
40	17-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.1
41	17-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.0
42	17-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Becky Barrett	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	IPFW	TOLEDO	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.1
2	0-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.1
3	1-2	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
4	1-3	IPFW	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
5	1-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
6	1-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.1
7	1-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Janelle Green	set Jessica Costlow	+0.1
8	1-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
9	2-7	TOLEDO	IPFW	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.0
10	2-8	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.0
11	3-8	TOLEDO	IPFW×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
12	4-8	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.1
13	5-8	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Miona Dimitric, Mya Plemons	+0.1
14	5-9	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
15	6-9	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.1
16	6-10	IPFW	TOLEDO	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.1
17	7-10	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.1
18	7-11	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
19	7-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
20	8-12	TOLEDO	IPFW×4	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+0.1
21	9-12	IPFW	IPFW×4	Attack err	Madelyn Bach		+0.1
22	10-12	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Riley Rosneck		+0.1
23	11-12	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Becky Barrett	+0.2
24	11-13	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
25	11-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
26	12-14	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
27	12-15	IPFW	TOLEDO	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.1
28	12-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.1
29	13-16	TOLEDO	IPFW	Attack err	Lilly Merk	blk Bella DiBuono, Trinity Rye	+0.1
30	13-17	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
31	13-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.1
32	14-18	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Haiden Means	set Riley Rosneck	+0.0
33	14-19	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
34	15-19	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.0
35	15-20	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.1
36	15-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.0
37	16-21	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.0
38	17-21	IPFW	IPFW	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+0.0
39	17-22	IPFW	TOLEDO	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.1
40	18-22	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Avery Parris	set Lili Smith	+0.0
41	19-22	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich	blk Riley Rosneck, Bella DiBuono	+0.1
42	19-23	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
43	20-23	TOLEDO	IPFW	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
44	20-24	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
45	21-24	TOLEDO	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Haiden Means	+0.0
46	21-25	IPFW	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Purdue Fort Wayne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.