FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeMVC

Illinois St. def. Purdue Fort Wayne 3–0

(25-19, 25-18, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
IPFW	19	18	22	0
ILL ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ILL ST above 50 · IPFW below

Biggest swing: 2.8% to Purdue Fort Wayne — set 1, IPFW 13-13 ILL ST. Kill by Mya Plemons. ILL ST win probability 78% → 75%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

IPFW 24.1%75.9% ILL ST

Purdue Fort Wayne wins

3-0

4.2%

3-1

8.2%

3-2

11.7%

Illinois St. wins

3-0

27.8%

3-1

29.0%

3-2

19.2%

IPFW break %: 39.1% vs this opp
ILL ST break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mya PlemonsKill+2.8%
Kill by Mya Plemons
Set 1 · IPFW 13-13 ILL ST · IPFW 22% → 25%
02
Ruth ZieglerKill+2.6%
Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Samantha Bunch)
Set 1 · IPFW 13-15 ILL ST · ILL ST 77% → 80%
03
Avery ParrisKill+2.6%
Kill by Avery Parris (set by Haiden Means)
Set 1 · IPFW 9-7 ILL ST · IPFW 27% → 29%
04
Ruth ZieglerKill+2.5%
Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Samantha Bunch)
Set 1 · IPFW 9-9 ILL ST · ILL ST 72% → 75%
05
Riley RosneckAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Riley Rosneck
Set 1 · IPFW 9-10 ILL ST · ILL ST 75% → 77%
06
Audrey ClarkBad set+2.3%
Bad set by Audrey Clark
Set 1 · IPFW 6-5 ILL ST · IPFW 24% → 26%
07
Avery ParrisKill+2.3%
Kill by Avery Parris
Set 1 · IPFW 12-13 ILL ST · IPFW 20% → 22%
08
Riley RosneckAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Riley Rosneck
Set 1 · IPFW 13-16 ILL ST · ILL ST 80% → 82%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Purdue Fort Wayneaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Riley RosneckOH	3	11	5	39	.154	0	0	2	12	1	1	0	1	12
9Trinity RyeOH	3	10	6	30	.133	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	12
5Mya PlemonsMB	3	5	0	8	.625	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
19Miona DimitricOH	3	5	3	14	.143	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	0	5
15Bella DiBuonoMB	3	3	1	11	.182	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Lili SmithS	3	0	1	2	-.500	26	0	2	4	0	0	2	1	1
3Becky BarrettDS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	9	2	0	0	0	0
2Ava TesterS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Avery ParrisOPP	1	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Haiden MeansS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	18	114	.158	32	1	8	44	4	1	6	4	59

Illinois St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Ruth ZieglerOPP	3	13	1	23	.522	0	3	5	2	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
10Oliwia CaputaOH	3	9	4	24	.208	0	0	1	13	0	0	2	1	10
6Logan GrevengoedMB	3	7	2	17	.294	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
16Abby ReckOH	3	6	0	14	.429	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
9Ella CraggsS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	0
17Peyton TurnerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
11Jillian GregoryOH	3	7	0	16	.438	0	1	3	3	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
21Audrey ClarkS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
5Samantha BunchS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
7Sidney WrightMB	2	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
15Addisyn PohlMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Ella KohnenS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	8	101	.366	44	4	13	51	1	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 IPFW · ILL ST 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 IPFWILL ST 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 IPFWILL ST 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 IPFWILL ST 5

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Purdue Fort Wayne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Purdue Fort Wayne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	40%4/10
2	50%8/16	20%2/10
3	78%7/9	20%2/10
4	55%6/11	56%9/16
5	75%6/8	14%1/7
6	26%5/19	14%1/7
All	54%40/74	32%19/60

Illinois St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	50%7/14
2	73%8/11	43%6/14
3	47%7/15	36%4/11
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	86%6/7	45%5/11
6	63%5/8	67%10/15
All	68%41/60	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	IPFW-ILL ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Becky Barrett	+1.5
2	1-1	IPFW	ILL ST×4	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+1.4
3	1-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+1.9
4	1-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Riley Rosneck	blk Abby Reck, Logan Grevengoed	+1.8
5	1-4	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Becky Barrett	+1.6
6	2-4	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+1.1
7	2-5	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+1.2
8	3-5	ILL ST	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.2
9	4-5	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.9
10	5-5	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+2.1
11	6-5	IPFW	IPFW×4	Bad set	Audrey Clark		+2.3
12	6-6	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Audrey Clark	+1.6
13	7-6	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+1.8
14	7-7	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+1.6
15	8-7	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck		+1.8
16	9-7	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Avery Parris	set Haiden Means	+2.6
17	9-8	IPFW	ILL ST×6	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+1.7
18	9-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+2.5
19	9-10	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+2.4
20	9-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+2.3
21	9-12	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Samantha Bunch	+2.0
22	9-13	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Avery Parris	blk Abby Reck, Ruth Ziegler	+1.7
23	10-13	ILL ST	IPFW×4	Serve err	ILL ST server		+1.1
24	11-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Becky Barrett	+1.9
25	12-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Avery Parris		+2.3
26	13-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Mya Plemons		+2.8
27	13-14	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+2.0
28	13-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+2.6
29	13-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+2.3
30	14-16	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+1.5
31	14-17	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.7
32	15-17	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Haiden Means	+1.5
33	15-18	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+1.7
34	15-19	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Samantha Bunch	+1.9
35	15-20	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Audrey Clark	+1.3
36	16-20	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.6
37	17-20	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa	blk Trinity Rye, Bella DiBuono	+1.3
38	17-21	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+1.3
39	17-22	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+1.1
40	18-22	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.4
41	18-23	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.7
42	19-23	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.3
43	19-24	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
44	19-25	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Avery Parris		+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
2	1-1	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+1.1
3	1-2	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+1.1
4	1-3	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Bella DiBuono	blk Sidney Wright, Oliwia Caputa	+1.4
5	2-3	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+1.0
6	2-4	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+1.0
7	3-4	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.0
8	3-5	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+1.0
9	3-6	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+1.3
10	4-6	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.9
11	4-7	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+1.0
12	5-7	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.9
13	5-8	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
14	5-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.2
15	5-10	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Becky Barrett	+1.0
16	6-10	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Mya Plemons	+0.6
17	7-10	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa		+1.1
18	7-11	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.9
19	8-11	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.8
20	9-11	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed		+1.4
21	9-12	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+1.1
22	9-13	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Sidney Wright	set Audrey Clark	+1.3
23	10-13	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.8
24	10-14	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.9
25	11-14	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.8
26	12-14	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+1.5
27	12-15	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Audrey Clark	+1.2
28	12-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Trinity Rye	blk Jillian Gregory, Sidney Wright	+1.4
29	12-17	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Miona Dimitric		+1.1
30	13-17	ILL ST	IPFW	Attack err	Sidney Wright		+0.6
31	13-18	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.7
32	14-18	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.5
33	14-19	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
34	14-20	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Miona Dimitric		+0.6
35	14-21	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.3
36	15-21	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
37	15-22	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.2
38	16-22	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.1
39	16-23	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Samantha Bunch	+0.1
40	17-23	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
41	17-24	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
42	18-24	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+0.0
43	18-25	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.6
2	1-1	IPFW	ILL ST	Attack err	Miona Dimitric		+0.6
3	2-1	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.6
4	2-2	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
5	3-2	ILL ST	IPFW×4	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.6
6	4-2	IPFW	IPFW×4	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed		+0.9
7	5-2	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.0
8	6-2	IPFW	IPFW×4	Ace	IPFW server	aced Peyton Turner	+1.0
9	6-3	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Kohnen	+0.6
10	6-4	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+0.9
11	7-4	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.7
12	8-4	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.0
13	8-5	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Sidney Wright	set Ella Kohnen	+0.6
14	9-5	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.7
15	9-6	IPFW	ILL ST×5	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Kohnen	+0.6
16	9-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+1.0
17	9-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+1.0
18	9-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
19	9-10	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
20	10-10	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric		+0.7
21	10-11	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
22	10-12	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
23	11-12	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.7
24	11-13	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+0.7
25	12-13	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.7
26	13-13	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.1
27	13-14	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+0.8
28	14-14	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.9
29	15-14	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa	blk Mya Plemons, Lili Smith	+1.3
30	15-15	IPFW	ILL ST	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.9
31	16-15	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.0
32	16-16	IPFW	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+1.0
33	16-17	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Lili Smith	blk Sidney Wright	+1.4
34	16-18	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Sidney Wright	set Audrey Clark	+1.3
35	17-18	ILL ST	IPFW	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler	blk Riley Rosneck	+0.8
36	17-19	IPFW	ILL ST	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+0.9
37	18-19	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.9
38	18-20	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.0
39	19-20	ILL ST	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.9
40	20-20	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa	blk Trinity Rye, Lili Smith	+1.7
41	20-21	IPFW	ILL ST×4	Serve err	IPFW server		+1.4
42	20-22	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+1.7
43	20-23	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Riley Rosneck	+1.3
44	20-24	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Trinity Rye	blk Oliwia Caputa, Abby Reck	+0.6
45	21-24	ILL ST	IPFW	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
46	22-24	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Becky Barrett	+0.5
47	22-25	IPFW	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Purdue Fort Wayne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.