FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Cal Poly def. Grand Canyon 3–0

(25-22, 25-21, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALPLY	25	25	25	3
GCANYN	22	21	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GCANYN above 50 · CALPLY below

Biggest swing: 3.9% to Cal Poly — set 1, CALPLY 19-17 GCANYN. Kill by Charlotte Kelly. GCANYN win probability 29% → 25%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALPLY 68.7%31.3% GCANYN

Cal Poly wins

3-0

22.4%

3-1

26.4%

3-2

20.0%

Grand Canyon wins

3-0

6.1%

3-1

11.0%

3-2

14.2%

CALPLY break %: 41.1% vs this opp
GCANYN break %: 37.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Charlotte KellyKill+3.9%
Kill by Charlotte Kelly
Set 1 · CALPLY 19-17 GCANYN · CALPLY 71% → 75%
02
Ana JaramazovicAttack error+3.8%
Ana Jaramazovic stuffed by Kendall Beshear & Charlotte Kelly
Set 2 · CALPLY 19-18 GCANYN · CALPLY 80% → 84%
03
Alexis HauryBad set+3.7%
Bad set by Alexis Haury
Set 1 · CALPLY 16-16 GCANYN · GCANYN 28% → 31%
04
Gentry ObladAttack error+3.7%
Gentry Oblad stuffed by Charlotte Kelly & Kayla Murdoch
Set 2 · CALPLY 18-18 GCANYN · CALPLY 77% → 80%
05
Kayla MurdochKill+3.6%
Kill by Kayla Murdoch (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 2 · CALPLY 20-18 GCANYN · CALPLY 84% → 88%
06
Charlotte KellyKill+3.2%
Kill by Charlotte Kelly (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 1 · CALPLY 20-17 GCANYN · CALPLY 75% → 78%
07
Charlotte KellyKill+3.2%
Kill by Charlotte Kelly (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 2 · CALPLY 17-18 GCANYN · CALPLY 73% → 77%
08
Kayla MurdochAttack error+3.1%
Kayla Murdoch stuffed by Bella Nunez & Aubrey Bellus
Set 2 · CALPLY 21-20 GCANYN · GCANYN 11% → 14%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cal Polyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Kendall BeshearOH	3	16	7	31	.290	0	3	6	10	2	1	0.5	19.5
1Emma FredrickOH	3	12	7	29	.172	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	12
16Kayla MurdochOH	3	11	4	17	.412	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	12
12Breklyn PullingMB	3	7	2	12	.417	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	8
15Charlotte KellyMB	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
8Alexis HauryS	3	1	0	1	1.000	46	3	0	3	0	0	0	4
53Ella ScottL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	1
21Elif HurriyetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	10	1	0	0	0
Team totals		52	23	106	.274	49	8	12	37	4	6	3	75

Grand Canyonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Starr WilliamsOPP	3	7	2	17	.294	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
10Aubrey BellusMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	1	2	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
21Bella NunezS	3	3	0	6	.500	11	1	2	3	0	0	2	1	5
19Aubrey GoodereMB	3	2	2	8	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
11Gentry ObladOH	3	3	5	12	-.167	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	3
4Taylor KubacakS	3	0	0	0	–	11	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
20Ana JaramazovicOPP	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
3Alayna Austin	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
8Bella AndersonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	4	0	0	0	0
18Milica ZigicOH	1	1	0	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
2Katie SchulzOH	1	0	0	6	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		25	11	78	.179	24	4	4	25	8	1	12	7	65

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 CALPLY · GCANYN 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 CALPLYGCANYN 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 7 CALPLYGCANYN 3

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 CALPLYGCANYN 4

Bars above the line = Grand Canyon leads, below = Cal Poly leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cal Poly

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	62%13/21
2	69%9/13	36%5/14
3	78%7/9	30%3/10
4	58%7/12	36%4/11
5	50%6/12	14%1/7
6	67%6/9	45%5/11
All	67%44/66	42%31/74

Grand Canyon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	30%3/10
2	67%8/12	10%1/10
3	78%7/9	27%3/11
4	64%7/11	36%4/11
5	75%6/8	36%4/11
6	35%6/17	54%7/13
All	58%43/74	33%22/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	CALPLY-GCANYN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.6
2	1-1	GCANYN	CALPLY×4	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.5
3	2-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Bella Anderson	+2.3
4	3-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+2.2
5	4-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Bella Anderson	+2.0
6	4-2	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.2
7	5-2	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
8	6-2	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.8
9	6-3	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+1.1
10	7-3	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
11	8-3	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Gentry Oblad	+1.5
12	8-4	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.9
13	8-5	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Bella Nunez	+1.7
14	9-5	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
15	10-5	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+1.6
16	10-6	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Bella Nunez	+0.9
17	10-7	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Elif Hurriyet	+1.7
18	11-7	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+1.3
19	11-8	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.1
20	11-9	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+2.1
21	12-9	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Emma Fredrick	+1.6
22	13-9	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+2.1
23	13-10	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly	blk Aubrey Bellus	+1.1
24	14-10	GCANYN	CALPLY	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.3
25	14-11	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.1
26	14-12	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch	blk Aubrey Goodere, Starr Williams	+2.3
27	15-12	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.7
28	15-13	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Aubrey Goodere	+1.5
29	15-14	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Bella Nunez	+3.0
30	16-14	GCANYN	CALPLY	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+2.1
31	16-15	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+2.0
32	16-16	GCANYN	GCANYN	Bad set	Alexis Haury		+3.7
33	17-16	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+2.5
34	17-17	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Bella Anderson	+2.6
35	18-17	GCANYN	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Aubrey Bellus		+2.7
36	19-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Charlotte Kelly		+3.9
37	20-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+3.2
38	21-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+2.3
39	21-18	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.9
40	22-18	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Alexis Haury		+1.4
41	23-18	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Starr Williams		+1.1
42	23-19	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.3
43	24-19	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
44	24-20	CALPLY	GCANYN×3	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.1
45	24-21	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Kendall Beshear	+0.5
46	24-22	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Aubrey Goodere		+1.2
47	25-22	GCANYN	CALPLY	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+2.0
Set 2
1	1-0	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
2	1-1	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.3
3	2-1	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
4	2-2	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.3
5	3-2	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
6	3-3	CALPLY	GCANYN×3	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.3
7	3-4	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+2.2
8	3-5	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+2.3
9	4-5	GCANYN	CALPLY	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.4
10	4-6	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+1.5
11	4-7	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+2.3
12	5-7	GCANYN	CALPLY	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.3
13	6-7	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Aubrey Goodere		+2.3
14	6-8	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Ana Jaramazovic, Aubrey Goodere	+1.6
15	6-9	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly	blk Aubrey Bellus, Katie Schulz	+2.5
16	7-9	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
17	8-9	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Katie Schulz	+2.4
18	8-10	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+1.7
19	8-11	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+2.6
20	9-11	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
21	10-11	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Bella Anderson	+2.5
22	10-12	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.8
23	10-13	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.7
24	11-13	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.5
25	11-14	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.9
26	12-14	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.5
27	12-15	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick	blk Bella Nunez, Aubrey Goodere	+1.9
28	13-15	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.6
29	13-16	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.0
30	14-16	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.6
31	14-17	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+2.1
32	14-18	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+2.7
33	15-18	GCANYN	CALPLY×7	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
34	16-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+2.6
35	17-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+3.2
36	18-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Attack err	Gentry Oblad	blk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch	+3.7
37	19-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Attack err	Ana Jaramazovic	blk Kendall Beshear, Charlotte Kelly	+3.8
38	20-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+3.6
39	21-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×7	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Gentry Oblad	+2.8
40	21-19	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Bella Nunez	+1.3
41	21-20	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch	blk Bella Nunez, Aubrey Bellus	+3.1
42	22-20	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+2.7
43	23-20	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Gentry Oblad	blk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch	+3.0
44	23-21	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.0
45	24-21	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.9
46	25-21	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
Set 3
1	1-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.1
2	2-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
3	3-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Starr Williams		+0.9
4	3-1	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly		+0.6
5	4-1	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
6	4-2	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.6
7	5-2	GCANYN	CALPLY	Serve err	GCANYN server		+0.6
8	5-3	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+0.6
9	5-4	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Kendall Beshear	+1.0
10	6-4	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
11	7-4	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
12	7-5	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling		+0.6
13	7-6	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+1.1
14	8-6	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
15	8-7	CALPLY	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Ana Jaramazovic, Aubrey Bellus	+0.7
16	8-8	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling		+1.3
17	8-9	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Ella Scott	+1.4
18	8-10	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.4
19	9-10	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
20	9-11	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.0
21	10-11	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.9
22	11-11	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Bella Anderson	+1.4
23	11-12	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.0
24	12-12	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
25	12-13	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.0
26	13-13	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
27	13-14	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.1
28	14-14	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
29	14-15	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Milica Zigic	set Bella Nunez	+1.1
30	15-15	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.1
31	15-16	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.2
32	15-17	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+1.9
33	16-17	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.1
34	17-17	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Alayna Austin	+1.9
35	17-18	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.4
36	18-18	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
37	18-19	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.5
38	19-19	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
39	19-20	CALPLY	GCANYN	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.6
40	20-20	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.5
41	21-20	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+2.5
42	21-21	CALPLY	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+1.6
43	22-21	GCANYN	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.8
44	23-21	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Aubrey Goodere		+2.6
45	24-21	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.6
46	24-22	CALPLY	GCANYN	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.4
47	25-22	GCANYN	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Cal Poly first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.