FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeSEC

Texas A&M def. Cal Poly 3–0

(26-24, 25-15, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALPLY	24	15	23	0
TX A&M	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TX A&M above 50 · CALPLY below

Biggest swing: 5.4% to Cal Poly — set 1, CALPLY 24-24 TX A&M. Kill by Emma Fredrick (set by Alexis Haury). TX A&M win probability 91% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALPLY 12.1%87.9% TX A&M

Cal Poly wins

3-0

1.7%

3-1

3.8%

3-2

6.6%

Texas A&M wins

3-0

41.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.2%

CALPLY break %: 34.5% vs this opp
TX A&M break %: 43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emma FredrickKill+5.4%
Kill by Emma Fredrick (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 1 · CALPLY 24-24 TX A&M · CALPLY 9% → 14%
02
Emma FredrickAttack error+4.7%
Attack error by Emma Fredrick
Set 1 · CALPLY 24-26 TX A&M · TX A&M 89% → 94%
03
Eliza SharpKill+3.5%
Kill by Eliza Sharp (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · CALPLY 24-25 TX A&M · TX A&M 86% → 89%
04
Natalie RingKill+3.3%
Kill by Natalie Ring
Set 1 · CALPLY 21-23 TX A&M · TX A&M 88% → 91%
05
Kendall BeshearKill+3.1%
Kill by Kendall Beshear (set by Elif Hurriyet)
Set 1 · CALPLY 20-20 TX A&M · CALPLY 11% → 14%
06
Kirra MusgroveBad set+3.0%
Bad set by Kirra Musgrove
Set 1 · CALPLY 17-15 TX A&M · CALPLY 16% → 19%
07
Taryn MorrisKill+2.7%
Kill by Taryn Morris (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · CALPLY 17-17 TX A&M · TX A&M 82% → 85%
08
Kendall BeshearAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Kendall Beshear
Set 1 · CALPLY 17-18 TX A&M · TX A&M 85% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cal Polyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Kendall BeshearOH	3	12	7	37	.135	0	1	2	4	1	4	2	15
1Emma FredrickOH	3	12	3	25	.360	1	0	3	5	2	0	0	12
12Breklyn PullingMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
16Kayla MurdochOH	3	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
8Alexis HauryS	3	0	0	1	.000	30	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
15Charlotte KellyMB	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Elif HurriyetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	13	0	0	0	0
53Ella ScottL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
2Chloe LelugeMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	3
6Maren O'FarrellL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
7Noelle VanachtL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	15	98	.214	33	2	10	30	5	14	7	62

Texas A&Mhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Natalie RingOH	3	15	3	31	.387	1	0	3	5	1	1	0.5	15.5
6Taryn MorrisOPP	3	9	2	13	.538	0	0	1	5	0	5	2.5	11.5
19Kaia CastleMB	3	9	2	16	.438	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	11
20Megan FitchOH	3	6	5	19	.053	0	1	1	6	1	2	1	8
25Eliza SharpMB	3	6	2	11	.364	1	0	0	1	0	4	2	8
12Lily NicholsonS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
14Kirra MusgroveS	3	0	0	3	.000	34	3	1	5	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Gabi RodriguezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	10	0	0	0	1
2Addi ApplegateL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
10Margot ManningS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	14	93	.333	40	5	8	37	2	17	8.5	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CALPLY · TX A&M 7

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 CALPLYTX A&M 3

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 CALPLYTX A&M 7

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 CALPLYTX A&M 4

Bars above the line = Texas A&M leads, below = Cal Poly leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cal Poly

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	53%8/15
2	58%7/12	36%4/11
3	88%7/8	22%2/9
4	55%6/11	50%7/14
5	28%5/18	40%4/10
6	45%5/11	0%0/5
All	50%37/74	39%25/64

Texas A&M

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	60%9/15
2	70%7/10	42%5/12
3	78%7/9	30%3/10
4	54%7/13	22%2/9
5	56%5/9	69%11/16
6	83%5/6	58%7/12
All	61%39/64	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	CALPLY-TX A&M	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Lily Nicholson	+0.8
2	0-2	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Lily Nicholson	+1.1
3	1-2	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
4	1-3	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.7
5	2-3	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
6	3-3	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Eliza Sharp		+1.4
7	3-4	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.8
8	4-4	TX A&M	CALPLY	Attack err	Megan Fitch	blk Breklyn Pulling, Kayla Murdoch	+0.9
9	4-5	CALPLY	TX A&M	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling	blk Megan Fitch, Eliza Sharp	+0.9
10	5-5	TX A&M	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
11	6-5	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.7
12	7-5	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+1.9
13	7-6	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.1
14	8-6	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
15	8-7	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Lily Nicholson	+1.1
16	9-7	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
17	9-8	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Gabi Rodriguez	+1.2
18	10-8	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
19	10-9	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.2
20	10-10	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+1.9
21	11-10	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
22	11-11	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.2
23	11-12	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.9
24	12-12	TX A&M	CALPLY×4	Serve err	TX A&M server		+1.3
25	13-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+2.3
26	14-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+2.5
27	15-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+2.6
28	15-13	CALPLY	TX A&M×3	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.3
29	15-14	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Megan Fitch, Kaia Castle, Kirra Musgrove	+2.4
30	15-15	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.4
31	16-15	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+1.8
32	17-15	CALPLY	CALPLY	Bad set	Kirra Musgrove		+3.0
33	17-16	CALPLY	TX A&M×3	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.6
34	17-17	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.7
35	17-18	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+2.6
36	18-18	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.7
37	18-19	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.7
38	18-20	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring		+2.5
39	19-20	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+1.4
40	20-20	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+3.1
41	20-21	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.1
42	21-21	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+2.2
43	21-22	CALPLY	TX A&M	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly	blk Taryn Morris, Eliza Sharp	+2.4
44	21-23	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring		+3.3
45	22-23	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
46	22-24	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.3
47	23-24	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
48	24-24	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+5.4
49	24-25	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+3.5
50	24-26	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+4.7
Set 2
1	0-1	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.9
2	0-2	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Eliza Sharp	+0.8
3	0-3	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Bad set	Elif Hurriyet		+0.7
4	0-4	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
5	1-4	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Emma Fredrick	+0.3
6	2-4	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.6
7	2-5	CALPLY	TX A&M×3	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
8	2-6	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch	blk Natalie Ring, Eliza Sharp	+0.6
9	2-7	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
10	3-7	TX A&M	CALPLY	Bad set	Taryn Morris		+0.3
11	3-8	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.3
12	4-8	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+0.3
13	4-9	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
14	5-9	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
15	5-10	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.3
16	5-11	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
17	6-11	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
18	6-12	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.2
19	6-13	TX A&M	TX A&M	Ace	TX A&M server	aced Emma Fredrick	+0.2
20	7-13	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
21	8-13	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Natalie Ring	+0.3
22	8-14	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.2
23	9-14	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Chloe Leluge	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
24	10-14	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick		+0.4
25	10-15	CALPLY	TX A&M	Attack err	Emma Fredrick	blk Taryn Morris, Eliza Sharp	+0.3
26	11-15	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
27	12-15	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Natalie Ring	blk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling	+0.6
28	12-16	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
29	13-16	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+0.4
30	14-16	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.9
31	14-17	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
32	14-18	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch		+0.8
33	15-18	TX A&M	CALPLY	Attack err	Kaia Castle		+0.4
34	15-19	CALPLY	TX A&M×7	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.5
35	15-20	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Ace	TX A&M server	aced Team	+0.5
36	15-21	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+0.2
37	15-22	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Kaia Castle, Taryn Morris	+0.1
38	15-23	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Natalie Ring	+0.0
39	15-24	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+0.0
40	15-25	TX A&M	TX A&M×7	Ace	TX A&M server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Kaia Castle		+0.5
2	2-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Natalie Ring		+0.6
3	3-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Taryn Morris	blk Kendall Beshear, Chloe Leluge	+0.6
4	4-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
5	4-1	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
6	5-1	TX A&M	CALPLY	Attack err	Natalie Ring	blk Chloe Leluge, Kendall Beshear	+0.4
7	5-2	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
8	5-3	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.6
9	6-3	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+0.4
10	6-4	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
11	7-4	TX A&M	CALPLY	Attack err	Megan Fitch	blk Breklyn Pulling, Kayla Murdoch	+0.5
12	8-4	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
13	8-5	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Eliza Sharp	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
14	8-6	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
15	9-6	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+0.5
16	10-6	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
17	10-7	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
18	10-8	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Kaia Castle, Taryn Morris	+0.7
19	11-8	TX A&M	CALPLY	Serve err	TX A&M server		+0.5
20	11-9	CALPLY	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
21	11-10	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
22	11-11	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+0.7
23	11-12	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
24	12-12	TX A&M	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
25	13-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
26	14-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Taryn Morris	blk Kendall Beshear, Chloe Leluge	+0.9
27	14-13	CALPLY	TX A&M×3	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
28	14-14	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	TX A&M server	aced Kendall Beshear	+0.8
29	14-15	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.8
30	15-15	TX A&M	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Eliza Sharp	blk Chloe Leluge, Kendall Beshear	+0.5
31	16-15	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kayla Murdoch		+0.9
32	17-15	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Megan Fitch	+1.0
33	17-16	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
34	18-16	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
35	18-17	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
36	19-17	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
37	20-17	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling		+1.2
38	20-18	CALPLY	TX A&M	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.5
39	21-18	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
40	21-19	CALPLY	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
41	21-20	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Ace	TX A&M server	aced Emma Fredrick	+1.1
42	21-21	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.3
43	21-22	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling		+1.4
44	22-22	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.9
45	22-23	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.0
46	22-24	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris		+1.3
47	23-24	TX A&M	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
48	23-25	CALPLY	TX A&M	Kill	Natalie Ring	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.0

Score shown after each rally, Cal Poly first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.