FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeBIG-WEST

Cal Poly def. Eastern Ill. 3–0

(25-21, 25-10, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
E ILL	21	10	17	0
CALPLY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CALPLY above 50 · E ILL below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Eastern Ill. — set 1, E ILL 14-13 CALPLY. Kill by Katie Kopshever (set by Peyton Castillo). CALPLY win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

E ILL 1.9%98.1% CALPLY

Eastern Ill. wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.5%

3-2

1.3%

Cal Poly wins

3-0

67.4%

3-1

24.9%

3-2

5.7%

E ILL break %: 32.3% vs this opp
CALPLY break %: 47.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katie KopsheverKill+0.7%
Kill by Katie Kopshever (set by Peyton Castillo)
Set 1 · E ILL 14-13 CALPLY · E ILL 2% → 3%
02
Breklyn PullingKill+0.6%
Kill by Breklyn Pulling (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 1 · E ILL 18-20 CALPLY · CALPLY 98% → 98%
03
Kendall BeshearKill+0.6%
Kill by Kendall Beshear (set by Elif Hurriyet)
Set 1 · E ILL 14-15 CALPLY · CALPLY 97% → 98%
04
Kaeden FoxxKill+0.5%
Kill by Kaeden Foxx (set by Peyton Castillo)
Set 1 · E ILL 18-18 CALPLY · E ILL 2% → 3%
05
E ILL serverAce+0.5%
Eastern Ill. ace on Noelle Vanacht
Set 1 · E ILL 7-5 CALPLY · E ILL 2% → 3%
06
Charlotte KellyKill+0.5%
Kill by Charlotte Kelly (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 1 · E ILL 18-19 CALPLY · CALPLY 97% → 98%
07
Abana TeranKill+0.5%
Kill by Abana Teran (set by Peyton Castillo)
Set 1 · E ILL 17-17 CALPLY · E ILL 2% → 3%
08
Emma FredrickAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Emma Fredrick
Set 1 · E ILL 12-12 CALPLY · E ILL 2% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Eastern Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Katie KopsheverOH	3	11	5	29	.207	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
9Emma HansonMB	3	6	0	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
19Abana TeranOPP	3	6	1	15	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Peyton CastilloS	3	4	0	5	.800	26	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4
11Anaya RawlinsonMB	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
5McKenna MortonOH	3	1	4	7	-.429	1	0	3	6	1	0	0	0	1
10Alanys NievesS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Anna McEwenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
1Ariadna PerelesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	0	0
16Kaeden FoxxOH	2	3	4	14	-.071	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3
Team totals		32	16	87	.184	29	2	5	27	8	1	4	3	48

Cal Polyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Emma FredrickOH	3	17	2	29	.517	0	0	1	3	0	3	1.5	18.5
13Kendall BeshearOH	3	9	1	20	.400	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	11
12Breklyn PullingMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
15Charlotte KellyMB	3	7	0	8	.875	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
16Kayla MurdochOH	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
8Alexis HauryS	3	1	0	1	1.000	37	2	4	10	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Elif HurriyetL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	2	1	7	1	0	0	3
7Noelle VanachtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	7	1	0	0	2
53Ella ScottL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	5	79	.506	42	8	9	34	2	11	5.5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 E ILL · CALPLY 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 E ILLCALPLY 4

Set 2

10-25

Longest run 2 E ILLCALPLY 6

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 E ILLCALPLY 4

Bars above the line = Cal Poly leads, below = Eastern Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Eastern Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	14%1/7
2	64%7/11	0%0/8
3	44%7/16	13%1/8
4	38%6/16	22%2/9
5	55%6/11	14%1/7
6	100%5/5	40%4/10
All	53%39/74	18%9/49

Cal Poly

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%8/8	42%5/12
2	88%7/8	42%5/12
3	88%7/8	46%6/13
4	78%7/9	50%7/14
5	60%6/10	65%11/17
6	83%5/6	17%1/6
All	82%40/49	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	E ILL-CALPLY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CALPLY	E ILL	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch	blk Katie Kopshever, Anaya Rawlinson	+0.2
2	1-1	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
3	2-1	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.3
4	3-1	E ILL	E ILL	Attack err	Emma Fredrick	blk Abana Teran, Emma Hanson	+0.4
5	3-2	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
6	4-2	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.3
7	4-3	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
8	5-3	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Peyton Castillo		+0.3
9	5-4	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
10	5-5	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
11	6-5	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.3
12	7-5	E ILL	E ILL	Ace	E ILL server	aced Noelle Vanacht	+0.5
13	7-6	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
14	8-6	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.4
15	8-7	E ILL	CALPLY×4	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
16	8-8	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Bad set	Peyton Castillo		+0.5
17	8-9	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	McKenna Morton		+0.4
18	8-10	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Ariadna Pereles	+0.3
19	9-10	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.2
20	9-11	E ILL	CALPLY	Attack err	Katie Kopshever		+0.2
21	10-11	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.2
22	10-12	E ILL	CALPLY	Serve err	E ILL server		+0.2
23	11-12	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Peyton Castillo	set Katie Kopshever	+0.3
24	12-12	E ILL	E ILL	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.5
25	12-13	E ILL	CALPLY	Serve err	E ILL server		+0.3
26	13-13	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.4
27	14-13	E ILL	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.7
28	14-14	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
29	14-15	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.6
30	15-15	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.4
31	15-16	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
32	16-16	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Anaya Rawlinson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.5
33	16-17	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
34	17-17	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.5
35	17-18	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
36	18-18	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Kaeden Foxx	set Peyton Castillo	+0.5
37	18-19	E ILL	CALPLY×3	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
38	18-20	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
39	18-21	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Kaeden Foxx	+0.4
40	19-21	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.2
41	19-22	E ILL	CALPLY	Attack err	Kaeden Foxx		+0.3
42	19-23	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Ariadna Pereles	+0.2
43	20-23	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Kaeden Foxx	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
44	20-24	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
45	21-24	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Kaeden Foxx	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
46	21-25	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
2	0-2	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Anaya Rawlinson		+0.1
3	1-2	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.1
4	1-3	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
5	1-4	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.1
6	2-4	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.1
7	2-5	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
8	3-5	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
9	4-5	E ILL	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson		+0.2
10	4-6	E ILL	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
11	4-7	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
12	4-8	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
13	5-8	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
14	5-9	E ILL	CALPLY	Serve err	E ILL server		+0.1
15	5-10	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling		+0.1
16	6-10	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
17	6-11	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
18	7-11	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
19	7-12	E ILL	CALPLY	Attack err	Katie Kopshever		+0.0
20	7-13	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+0.1
21	8-13	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
22	8-14	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
23	9-14	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Peyton Castillo	set Ariadna Pereles	+0.0
24	9-15	E ILL	CALPLY×5	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
25	9-16	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Attack err	Kaeden Foxx		+0.0
26	9-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Attack err	Abana Teran	blk Emma Fredrick, Breklyn Pulling	+0.0
27	9-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Attack err	Kaeden Foxx		+0.0
28	9-19	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Attack err	Katie Kopshever	blk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling	+0.0
29	10-19	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.0
30	10-20	E ILL	CALPLY×6	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
31	10-21	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
32	10-22	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
33	10-23	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Attack err	Kaeden Foxx	blk Alexis Haury, Breklyn Pulling	+0.0
34	10-24	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Anna McEwen	+0.0
35	10-25	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
2	1-1	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.1
3	2-1	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
4	2-2	E ILL	CALPLY×4	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
5	2-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Anaya Rawlinson		+0.1
6	2-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced McKenna Morton	+0.1
7	2-5	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
8	3-5	CALPLY	E ILL	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling		+0.0
9	3-6	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
10	4-6	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
11	4-7	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Elif Hurriyet		+0.0
12	4-8	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Alexis Haury	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.0
13	5-8	CALPLY	E ILL×3	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.0
14	6-8	E ILL	E ILL×3	Attack err	Kendall Beshear	blk Emma Hanson	+0.1
15	7-8	E ILL	E ILL×3	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
16	7-9	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
17	8-9	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Emma Hanson	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
18	9-9	E ILL	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Emma Fredrick	+0.1
19	9-10	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
20	10-10	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.1
21	10-11	E ILL	CALPLY	Serve err	E ILL server		+0.1
22	11-11	CALPLY	E ILL	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.1
23	11-12	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
24	12-12	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
25	12-13	E ILL	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
26	12-14	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	McKenna Morton	blk Breklyn Pulling, Emma Fredrick	+0.1
27	12-15	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
28	13-15	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Abana Teran	set Peyton Castillo	+0.1
29	13-16	E ILL	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
30	13-17	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	McKenna Morton		+0.1
31	14-17	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	McKenna Morton	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
32	15-17	E ILL	E ILL	Ace	E ILL server	aced Elif Hurriyet	+0.1
33	15-18	E ILL	CALPLY	Attack err	McKenna Morton		+0.1
34	16-18	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Peyton Castillo	set McKenna Morton	+0.1
35	16-19	E ILL	CALPLY×3	Serve err	E ILL server		+0.1
36	16-20	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Katie Kopshever		+0.1
37	16-21	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.0
38	17-21	CALPLY	E ILL	Kill	Katie Kopshever	set Peyton Castillo	+0.0
39	17-22	E ILL	CALPLY×4	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.0
40	17-23	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Katie Kopshever	blk Kayla Murdoch, Charlotte Kelly	+0.0
41	17-24	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+0.0
42	17-25	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Eastern Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.