Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Cal Poly def. California Baptist 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Cal Poly 99.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Cal Poly beat visiting California Baptist 3-2 (15-25, 25-15, 24-26, 25-19, 15-10) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Cal Poly's Emma Fredrick led with 18 kills.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set12345Sets
CALBAP25152619102
CALPLY15252425153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kendall Beshear served 6 aces, and Cal Poly needed every one.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Cal Poly's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Cal Poly >99% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · California Baptist 22–24 Cal Poly

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to California Baptist, enough to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–1.

    Cal Poly 99% → 84%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · California Baptist 4–2 Cal Poly

    Down 2–4, Cal Poly scored 3 straight to lead 5–4.

    Cal Poly 74% → 90%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · California Baptist 7–7 Cal Poly

    4 straight Cal Poly points broke a 7–7 tie and made it 11–7.

    Cal Poly 83% → 99%

Cal Poly above 50California Baptist belowMax swing 7.5%

California BaptistCal Poly

Sideout %
California Baptist 55.8·Cal Poly 61.1
Break %
California Baptist 38.9·Cal Poly 44.2
Hitting
California Baptist .206·Cal Poly .246
Longest run
California Baptist 6·Cal Poly 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Cal Poly above 50 · California Baptist below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+7.5% CALBAPrally 199 · set 5

Biggest swing: 7.5% to California Baptist — set 3, CALBAP 26-24 CALPLY. Attack error by Kayla Murdoch. CALPLY win probability 91% → 84%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CALBAP 0.7%99.3% CALPLY

California Baptist wins

3-0
0.1%
3-1
0.1%
3-2
0.5%

Cal Poly wins

3-0
77.6%
3-1
18.9%
3-2
2.9%
CALBAP break %
31.7% vs this opp
CALPLY break %
50.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kayla MurdochAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Kayla Murdoch

    Set 3 · CALBAP 26-24 CALPLY · CALBAP 9% → 16%

  2. 02
    Maddie BrownKill+7.0%

    Kill by Maddie Brown (set by Alexis Haury)

    Set 5 · CALBAP 2-0 CALPLY · CALBAP 16% → 23%

  3. 03
    Cal PolyAce+6.4%

    Cal Poly ace

    Set 5 · CALBAP 4-4 CALPLY · CALPLY 78% → 84%

  4. 04
    Cal PolyService error+6.0%

    Cal Poly service error

    Set 5 · CALBAP 4-2 CALPLY · CALBAP 20% → 26%

  5. 05

    Kendall Beshear stuffed by Eleftheria Baxa & Filippa Botcher

    Set 5 · CALBAP 3-1 CALPLY · CALBAP 19% → 25%

  6. 06

    Kill by Breklyn Pulling (set by Alexis Haury)

    Set 5 · CALBAP 7-9 CALPLY · CALPLY 88% → 93%

  7. 07
    Emery DeJongAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Emery DeJong

    Set 5 · CALBAP 4-5 CALPLY · CALPLY 84% → 90%

  8. 08
    Emery DeJongBlock+5.0%

    Emma Fredrick stuffed by Emery DeJong

    Set 5 · CALBAP 7-7 CALPLY · CALBAP 12% → 17%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517842.21400111320219
512324.37512490031.515.5
510637.10800244031.511.5
5428.2500234008410
5218.1253521140010.54.5
42212.000000000002
5000–322630002
4000–50010111.51.5
4000–000000000
3000–000100000
2305.600000000003
2000–000000000
Team totals5022136.2064481350133161195
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518640.30022114110121
511438.18406661010.517.5
512217.58800010153.515.5
54417.00000010073.57.5
5112.00040131300002
45210.30000010031.56.5
5000–022000002
5000–121100002
5000–200840000
5000–101200000
1328.125000000003
1002.000000000000
1000–101300000
Team totals5421134.24647131550821610104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

California Baptist vs Cal Poly

Season series · Cal Poly leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CALBAP · CALPLY 6

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 6 CALBAPCALPLY 2

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 CALBAPCALPLY 6

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 4 CALBAPCALPLY 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 CALBAPCALPLY 4

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 2 CALBAPCALPLY 4

Bars above the line = Cal Poly leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California Baptist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
10%1/10
2
42%11/26
45%9/20
3
59%10/17
50%11/22
4
59%10/17
33%5/15
5
47%8/17
40%6/15
6
73%8/11
38%5/13
All
56%58/104
39%37/95

Cal Poly

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
38%6/16
2
52%11/21
35%6/17
3
71%10/14
50%10/20
4
56%9/16
55%12/22
5
69%9/13
10%1/10
6
70%7/10
58%11/19
All
61%58/95
44%46/104

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

199 rallies

#CALBAP-CALPLYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CALPLYCALBAP×5KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.1
22-0CALBAPCALBAP×5AceJagoda Bialekaced Elif Hurriyet+0.1
33-0CALBAPCALBAP×5BlockedCharlotte Kellyblk Audrey Heiring, Filippa Botcher+0.1
44-0CALBAPCALBAP×5Attack errCharlotte Kelly+0.1
55-0CALBAPCALBAP×5KillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.2
65-1CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.1
76-1CALPLYCALBAPAttack errEmma Fredrick+0.1
87-1CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.2
97-2CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.1
108-2CALPLYCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.2
118-3CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.1
129-3CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+0.2
139-4CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Elif Hurriyet+0.1
1410-4CALPLYCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.2
1511-4CALBAPCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.3
1612-4CALBAPCALBAP×3KillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.3
1712-5CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.1
1812-6CALPLYCALPLYAceCal Polyaced Emery DeJong+0.2
1913-6CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.2
2013-7CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.1
2114-7CALPLYCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.2
2215-7CALBAPCALBAPBlockedKendall Beshearblk Filippa Botcher, Eleftheria Baxa+0.3
2315-8CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.1
2415-9CALPLYCALPLYAceCal Polyaced Jagoda Bialek+0.2
2516-9CALPLYCALBAP×6Serve errCal Poly+0.2
2617-9CALBAPCALBAP×6KillMaddie Brownset Alexis Haury+0.3
2718-9CALBAPCALBAP×6AceEleftheria Baxaaced Kendall Beshear+0.2
2819-9CALBAPCALBAP×6BlockedKayla Murdochblk Filippa Botcher, Audrey Heiring+0.1
2920-9CALBAPCALBAP×6KillAudrey Heiring+0.1
3021-9CALBAPCALBAP×6Attack errKayla Murdoch·
3121-10CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Elif Hurriyet·
3221-11CALPLYCALPLYAttack errMaddie Brown·
3322-11CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly·
3422-12CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury·
3523-12CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly·
3623-13CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist·
3724-13CALPLYCALBAPKillBella Breuerset Maddie Brown·
3824-14CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Samantha Callahan·
3924-15CALPLYCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Maren O'Farrell·
4025-15CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly·
Set 2
11-0CALBAPCALBAPBlockedKendall Beshearblk Filippa Botcher, Eleftheria Baxa+0.5
21-1CALBAPCALPLYKillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+0.3
32-1CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.4
43-1CALBAPCALBAPAceEleftheria Baxaaced Elif Hurriyet+0.7
53-2CALBAPCALPLY×4Serve errCalifornia Baptist+0.4
63-3CALPLYCALPLY×4Attack errAudrey Heiring+0.6
73-4CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Poly+0.4
83-5CALPLYCALPLY×4KillCharlotte Kelly+0.3
94-5CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+0.3
104-6CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.2
115-6CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Jagoda Bialek+0.3
125-7CALBAPCALPLYKillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+0.2
136-7CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.3
146-8CALBAPCALPLY×6Serve errCalifornia Baptist+0.3
156-9CALPLYCALPLY×6KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.3
166-10CALPLYCALPLY×6Attack errEmery DeJong+0.2
176-11CALPLYCALPLY×6KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.1
186-12CALPLYCALPLY×6Attack errEleftheria Baxa+0.1
196-13CALPLYCALPLY×6Attack errEmery DeJong+0.1
207-13CALPLYCALBAPKillBella Breuer·
217-14CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury·
228-14CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown·
238-15CALBAPCALPLYKillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury·
249-15CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly·
259-16CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury·
269-17CALPLYCALPLYAceCal Poly·
2710-17CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly·
2810-18CALBAPCALPLY×4KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury·
2910-19CALPLYCALPLY×4BlockedEmery DeJongblk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling·
3010-20CALPLYCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury·
3110-21CALPLYCALPLY×4Attack errFilippa Botcher·
3211-21CALPLYCALBAP×4KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown·
3312-21CALBAPCALBAP×4Attack errEmma Fredrick·
3413-21CALBAPCALBAP×4KillEmery DeJongset Maria Contreras·
3514-21CALBAPCALBAP×4AceFilippa Botcheraced Emma Fredrick·
3614-22CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist·
3714-23CALPLYCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury·
3815-23CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown·
3915-24CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury·
4015-25CALPLYCALPLYAttack errEmery DeJong·
Set 3
10-1CALPLYCALPLYKillChloe Leluge+0.3
21-1CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.2
31-2CALBAPCALPLY×3KillChloe Lelugeset Alexis Haury+0.2
41-3CALPLYCALPLY×3Bad setMaddie Brown+0.2
51-4CALPLYCALPLY×3KillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+0.2
62-4CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Jagoda Bialek+0.1
73-4CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiring+0.3
83-5CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.2
94-5CALPLYCALBAP×3Serve errCal Poly+0.2
105-5CALBAPCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maria Contreras+0.4
116-5CALBAPCALBAP×3BlockedEmma Fredrickblk Filippa Botcher, Maria Contreras+0.6
126-6CALBAPCALPLY×4Serve errCalifornia Baptist+0.3
136-7CALPLYCALPLY×4KillEmma Fredrickset Maddie Brown+0.4
146-8CALPLYCALPLY×4BlockedEmery DeJongblk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling+0.3
156-9CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Polyaced Jagoda Bialek+0.2
167-9CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Eleftheria Baxa+0.2
177-10CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.2
188-10CALPLYCALBAPAttack errBreklyn Pulling+0.2
198-11CALBAPCALPLYKillAlexis Haury+0.2
209-11CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.2
219-12CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.2
229-13CALPLYCALPLYKillChloe Leluge+0.2
2310-13CALPLYCALBAP×3Serve errCal Poly+0.1
2411-13CALBAPCALBAP×3BlockedChloe Lelugeblk Filippa Botcher, Audrey Heiring+0.3
2512-13CALBAPCALBAP×3AceJagoda Bialekaced Elif Hurriyet+0.5
2612-14CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Noelle Vanacht+0.3
2712-15CALPLYCALPLYAceCal Polyaced Audrey Heiring+0.4
2813-15CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.3
2914-15CALBAPCALBAPBlockedKendall Beshearblk Filippa Botcher, Maddie Brown+0.6
3014-16CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.4
3115-16CALPLYCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.5
3215-17CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.4
3315-18CALPLYCALPLYBlockedEmery DeJongblk Breklyn Pulling, Kayla Murdoch+0.5
3416-18CALPLYCALBAPKillAudrey Heiring+0.3
3517-18CALBAPCALBAPAceFilippa Botcheraced Elif Hurriyet+0.7
3617-19CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.5
3718-19CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.6
3818-20CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.6
3919-20CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.6
4019-21CALBAPCALPLYBlockedBella Breuerblk Breklyn Pulling+0.6
4120-21CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.7
4220-22CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.7
4321-22CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+0.7
4421-23CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.8
4522-23CALPLYCALBAPAttack errChloe Leluge+0.7
4622-24CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+1.0
4723-24CALPLYCALBAP×4KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.6
4824-24CALBAPCALBAP×4BlockedEmma Fredrickblk Maria Contreras+2.6
4925-24CALBAPCALBAP×4Attack errKayla Murdoch+4.4
5026-24CALBAPCALBAP×4Attack errKayla Murdoch+7.5
Set 4
10-1CALBAPCALPLYServe errCalifornia Baptist+1.0
21-1CALPLYCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.3
31-2CALBAPCALPLY×4BlockedAudrey Heiringblk Kayla Murdoch, Charlotte Kelly+1.1
41-3CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Polyaced Audrey Heiring+1.3
51-4CALPLYCALPLY×4KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+1.0
61-5CALPLYCALPLY×4KillKayla Murdoch+0.7
72-5CALPLYCALBAPAttack errEmma Fredrick+0.5
83-5CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maria Contreras+1.1
93-6CALBAPCALPLYBad setMaria Contreras+0.7
104-6CALPLYCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.8
114-7CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.7
125-7CALPLYCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.9
135-8CALBAPCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.8
145-9CALPLYCALPLY×4Attack errBella Breuer+0.9
155-10CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Polyaced Audrey Heiring+0.6
165-11CALPLYCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.4
176-11CALPLYCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.3
187-11CALBAPCALBAP×3AceMaddie Brown+0.6
198-11CALBAPCALBAP×3AceMaddie Brown+1.0
208-12CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.7
218-13CALPLYCALPLYBlockedEmery DeJongblk Charlotte Kelly, Kendall Beshear+0.7
229-13CALPLYCALBAPKillIfeoma Okekeset Maddie Brown+0.5
239-14CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.5
2410-14CALPLYCALBAPAttack errAlexis Haury+0.5
2510-15CALBAPCALPLY×3KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+0.5
2610-16CALPLYCALPLY×3BlockedAudrey Heiringblk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch+0.5
2710-17CALPLYCALPLY×3AceCal Polyaced Jagoda Bialek+0.2
2811-17CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+0.1
2912-17CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maria Contreras+0.3
3012-18CALBAPCALPLY×4Attack errAudrey Heiring+0.3
3112-19CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Polyaced Emery DeJong+0.2
3212-20CALPLYCALPLY×4BlockedAudrey Heiringblk Breklyn Pulling, Kayla Murdoch+0.1
3312-21CALPLYCALPLY×4BlockedFilippa Botcherblk Emma Fredrick·
3413-21CALPLYCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Jagoda Bialek·
3513-22CALBAPCALPLYKillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury·
3614-22CALPLYCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown·
3715-22CALBAPCALBAP×3Bad setAlexis Haury·
3816-22CALBAPCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.1
3916-23CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.1
4017-23CALPLYCALBAPKillIfeoma Okekeset Maddie Brown·
4118-23CALBAPCALBAPBlockedBreklyn Pullingblk Emery DeJong+0.1
4218-24CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.1
4319-24CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown·
4419-25CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Emma Fredrick+0.7
Set 5
11-0CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+3.8
22-0CALBAPCALBAPKillMaddie Brownset Alexis Haury+7.0
32-1CALBAPCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+3.8
43-1CALPLYCALBAPBlockedKendall Beshearblk Eleftheria Baxa, Filippa Botcher+5.5
53-2CALBAPCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+4.1
64-2CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+6.0
74-3CALBAPCALPLY×3KillKendall Beshearset Emma Fredrick+4.5
84-4CALPLYCALPLY×3AceCal Poly+6.4
94-5CALPLYCALPLY×3Attack errEmery DeJong+5.2
105-5CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+4.1
115-6CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+3.5
126-6CALPLYCALBAPKillIfeoma Okekeset Maddie Brown+4.5
136-7CALBAPCALPLYBlockedEleftheria Baxablk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling+3.9
147-7CALPLYCALBAPBlockedEmma Fredrickblk Emery DeJong+5.0
157-8CALBAPCALPLY×4KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+4.4
167-9CALPLYCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+5.3
177-10CALPLYCALPLY×4Attack errEleftheria Baxa+3.5
187-11CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Polyaced Audrey Heiring+2.0
198-11CALPLYCALBAPServe errCal Poly+1.0
208-12CALBAPCALPLY×3KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+1.2
218-13CALPLYCALPLY×3AceCal Polyaced Emery DeJong+0.8
228-14CALPLYCALPLY×3Attack errAudrey Heiring+0.2
239-14CALPLYCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown·
2410-14CALBAPCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maria Contreras+0.1
2510-15CALBAPCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.2

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).