FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomeCAA

N.C. A&T def. N.C. Central 3–0

(25-21, 25-17, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NC CEN	21	17	17	0
NC A&T	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NC A&T above 50 · NC CEN below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to N.C. Central — set 1, NC CEN 21-20 NC A&T. Kill by Shalyn Bell (set by Breylan Fairley). NC A&T win probability 93% → 90%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NC CEN 5.3%94.7% NC A&T

N.C. Central wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.2%

N.C. A&T wins

3-0

54.5%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

10.2%

NC CEN break %: 35.8% vs this opp
NC A&T break %: 48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Shalyn BellKill+2.4%
Kill by Shalyn Bell (set by Breylan Fairley)
Set 1 · NC CEN 21-20 NC A&T · NC CEN 7% → 10%
02
Nicole EllisKill+2.3%
Kill by Nicole Ellis
Set 1 · NC CEN 21-22 NC A&T · NC A&T 92% → 94%
03
Nicole EllisKill+1.8%
Kill by Nicole Ellis (set by Mikala Sampson)
Set 1 · NC CEN 21-23 NC A&T · NC A&T 94% → 96%
04
Shalyn BellKill+1.8%
Kill by Shalyn Bell (set by Morgan Wingo)
Set 1 · NC CEN 20-20 NC A&T · NC CEN 5% → 7%
05
Nicole EllisKill+1.6%
Kill by Nicole Ellis (set by Kirsten Kemper)
Set 1 · NC CEN 21-21 NC A&T · NC A&T 90% → 92%
06
Shalyn BellAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Shalyn Bell
Set 1 · NC CEN 15-15 NC A&T · NC A&T 92% → 93%
07
Agata ZwierzynskaKill+1.3%
Kill by Agata Zwierzynska (set by Kirsten Kemper)
Set 1 · NC CEN 16-17 NC A&T · NC A&T 93% → 94%
08
Tyne RossKill+1.3%
Kill by Tyne Ross (set by Charlie Meadoweal)
Set 1 · NC CEN 14-13 NC A&T · NC A&T 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

N.C. Centralaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	PTS
3Allyson RouseMB	3	3	1	5	.400	0	0	3	2	0	3
7Aniah BassOH	3	2	2	13	.000	1	0	0	6	0	2
6Breylan FairleyS	3	0	1	3	-.333	10	1	2	3	0	1
22Tabitha NewlinOH	2	5	4	14	.071	0	1	1	5	0	6
12Shalyn BellOH	2	5	2	23	.130	0	0	1	3	0	5
2Morgan WingoMB	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	3	0	0	0
14Mya SmithOH	3	4	2	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	4
1Isabella RodriguezDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	3	0	1
13Lusiana DamuniS	3	0	0	0	–	12	1	0	1	0	1
4Hailey GibbonsDS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	4	1	0
8Peyton JenkinsMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	1	0	0	1
17Alex FullerDS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	1	2	0	0
16Talia EmmenOH	1	4	2	12	.167	0	0	2	1	0	4
10Kayla RileyOH	1	2	1	6	.167	0	1	1	1	1	3
Team totals		27	16	88	.125	26	4	15	31	3	55

N.C. A&Thome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Tyne RossOH	3	14	1	24	.542	1	0	2	7	1	0	1	0.5	14.5
2Zariah WintonOH	3	9	5	24	.167	0	1	3	4	2	0	0	0	10
19Agata ZwierzynskaOH	3	5	1	14	.286	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	6
1Madison MullinsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	3	10	1	0	0	0	2
12Kirsten KemperOH	3	0	0	2	.000	23	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
15Luca RadnaiMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
8Nicole EllisMB	3	5	1	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
10Mikala SampsonOH	3	3	0	8	.375	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
6Charlie MeadowealS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
11Daja WarrenMB	2	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
23Cam ScottOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Eden EyassuL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Madison CurryOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Valeria EstradaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	9	85	.365	38	3	13	40	4	3	6	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 NC CEN · NC A&T 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 NC CENNC A&T 5

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 NC CENNC A&T 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 NC CENNC A&T 5

Bars above the line = N.C. A&T leads, below = N.C. Central leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

N.C. Central

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	20%2/10
2	50%6/12	44%7/16
3	46%6/13	14%1/7
4	86%6/7	25%2/8
5	60%6/10	33%3/9
6	55%6/11	14%1/7
All	53%39/73	28%16/57

N.C. A&T

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	50%7/14
2	57%8/14	47%7/15
3	86%6/7	54%7/13
4	55%6/11	45%5/11
5	100%6/6	25%2/8
6	86%6/7	50%6/12
All	72%41/57	47%34/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	NC CEN-NC A&T	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NC CEN	NC CEN	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Tyne Ross	+0.8
2	1-1	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
3	2-1	NC A&T	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Agata Zwierzynska		+0.6
4	3-1	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Zariah Winton		+0.9
5	4-1	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Bad set	Kirsten Kemper		+1.0
6	4-2	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.6
7	4-3	NC A&T	NC A&T	Kill	Mikala Sampson	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.9
8	5-3	NC A&T	NC CEN	Attack err	Zariah Winton		+0.7
9	6-3	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Nicole Ellis		+1.1
10	6-4	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.7
11	7-4	NC A&T	NC CEN×3	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
12	8-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Zariah Winton	+1.3
13	9-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Isabella Rodriguez	set Charlie Meadoweal	+1.3
14	9-5	NC CEN	NC A&T	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+0.7
15	10-5	NC A&T	NC CEN	Bad set	Zariah Winton		+1.0
16	10-6	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.7
17	10-7	NC A&T	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+1.1
18	11-7	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.0
19	11-8	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
20	11-9	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Mya Smith		+1.2
21	12-9	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.1
22	12-10	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Luca Radnai	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.8
23	13-10	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.1
24	13-11	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.9
25	14-11	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Aniah Bass	+1.2
26	14-12	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.9
27	14-13	NC A&T	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+1.3
28	15-13	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+1.2
29	15-14	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+1.0
30	15-15	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+1.4
31	16-15	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.2
32	16-16	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.0
33	16-17	NC A&T	NC A&T	Kill	Agata Zwierzynska	set Kirsten Kemper	+1.3
34	17-17	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.1
35	17-18	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+1.0
36	17-19	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin	blk Luca Radnai, Agata Zwierzynska	+1.2
37	18-19	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.9
38	18-20	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.9
39	19-20	NC A&T	NC CEN×3	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
40	20-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Morgan Wingo	+1.8
41	21-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+2.4
42	21-21	NC CEN	NC A&T×5	Kill	Nicole Ellis	set Kirsten Kemper	+1.6
43	21-22	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Kill	Nicole Ellis		+2.3
44	21-23	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Kill	Nicole Ellis	set Mikala Sampson	+1.8
45	21-24	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Bad set	Hailey Gibbons		+1.1
46	21-25	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+0.4
2	0-2	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Attack err	Aniah Bass	blk Nicole Ellis, Agata Zwierzynska	+0.3
3	0-3	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+0.3
4	0-4	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
5	1-4	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
6	2-4	NC CEN	NC CEN	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Zariah Winton	+0.3
7	2-5	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
8	2-6	NC A&T	NC A&T	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Madison Mullins	+0.2
9	3-6	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.2
10	3-7	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
11	4-7	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.2
12	4-8	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.2
13	5-8	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.2
14	6-8	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Luca Radnai		+0.3
15	6-9	NC CEN	NC A&T	Attack err	Allyson Rouse	blk Luca Radnai	+0.2
16	7-9	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.3
17	7-10	NC CEN	NC A&T×4	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.3
18	7-11	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Kill	Agata Zwierzynska	set Tyne Ross	+0.3
19	7-12	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
20	7-13	NC A&T	NC A&T×4	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
21	8-13	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.1
22	8-14	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
23	8-15	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Tabitha Newlin		+0.1
24	9-15	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.1
25	9-16	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.1
26	10-16	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.1
27	10-17	NC CEN	NC A&T×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
28	10-18	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Ace	NC A&T server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+0.1
29	10-19	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Attack err	Aniah Bass		+0.0
30	11-19	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.0
31	11-20	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Nicole Ellis	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.0
32	12-20	NC A&T	NC CEN×3	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.0
33	13-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Tyne Ross		+0.0
34	14-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Zariah Winton		+0.0
35	14-21	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.0
36	14-22	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Mya Smith	blk Tyne Ross, Daja Warren	+0.0
37	15-22	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.0
38	15-23	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.0
39	16-23	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.0
40	16-24	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Agata Zwierzynska	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.0
41	17-24	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+0.0
42	17-25	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Zariah Winton		+0.2
2	1-1	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
3	2-1	NC A&T	NC CEN×3	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.2
4	3-1	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Madison Mullins	+0.3
5	4-1	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Zariah Winton		+0.3
6	4-2	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Agata Zwierzynska	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
7	5-2	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
8	5-3	NC CEN	NC A&T×3	Kill	Daja Warren	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.2
9	5-4	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Kill	Mikala Sampson	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.3
10	5-5	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+0.2
11	6-5	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
12	6-6	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Mikala Sampson	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.2
13	7-6	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.2
14	7-7	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
15	7-8	NC A&T	NC A&T	Attack err	Kayla Riley	blk Nicole Ellis	+0.2
16	8-8	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.2
17	9-8	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
18	9-9	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.2
19	10-9	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.2
20	10-10	NC CEN	NC A&T×3	Kill	Zariah Winton	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
21	10-11	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Ace	NC A&T server	aced Team	+0.3
22	10-12	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Ace	NC A&T server	aced Kayla Riley	+0.2
23	11-12	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Kayla Riley	set Hailey Gibbons	+0.2
24	11-13	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Agata Zwierzynska	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.2
25	12-13	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.2
26	12-14	NC CEN	NC A&T×3	Kill	Daja Warren	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.2
27	12-15	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Kill	Tyne Ross		+0.2
28	12-16	NC A&T	NC A&T×3	Attack err	Alex Fuller	blk Daja Warren	+0.2
29	13-16	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.1
30	13-17	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Charlie Meadoweal	+0.1
31	14-17	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.1
32	14-18	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.1
33	15-18	NC A&T	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.1
34	15-19	NC CEN	NC A&T	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.1
35	16-19	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.1
36	16-20	NC CEN	NC A&T×5	Kill	Nicole Ellis	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.1
37	16-21	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Attack err	Breylan Fairley		+0.1
38	16-22	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+0.0
39	16-23	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Kill	Tyne Ross	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.0
40	16-24	NC A&T	NC A&T×5	Kill	Daja Warren	set Kirsten Kemper	+0.0
41	17-24	NC A&T	NC CEN	Serve err	NC A&T server		+0.0
42	17-25	NC CEN	NC A&T	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, N.C. Central first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.