FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeBIG-WEST

Cal St. Fullerton def. McNeese 3–0

(26-24, 25-19, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MCNEES	24	19	26	0
CSFULL	26	25	28	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CSFULL above 50 · MCNEES below

Biggest swing: 9.8% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 1, MCNEES 24-26 CSFULL. Cal St. Fullerton ace on Gaby Santiago. CSFULL win probability 61% → 71%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MCNEES 47.2%52.8% CSFULL

McNeese wins

3-0

11.4%

3-1

17.6%

3-2

18.3%

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0

13.7%

3-1

19.9%

3-2

19.2%

MCNEES break %: 43.3% vs this opp
CSFULL break %: 43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CSFULL serverAce+9.8%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Gaby Santiago
Set 1 · MCNEES 24-26 CSFULL · CSFULL 61% → 71%
02
Hannah HassKill+7.6%
Kill by Hannah Hass (set by Italia Bernal)
Set 1 · MCNEES 23-24 CSFULL · CSFULL 54% → 61%
03
Kayla WilsonKill+7.6%
Kill by Kayla Wilson (set by Corynne Hausler)
Set 1 · MCNEES 24-24 CSFULL · MCNEES 39% → 46%
04
Sofia ShineKill+7.6%
Kill by Sofia Shine (set by Italia Bernal)
Set 1 · MCNEES 24-25 CSFULL · CSFULL 54% → 61%
05
Sofia ShineAttack error+7.5%
Attack error by Sofia Shine
Set 1 · MCNEES 23-23 CSFULL · MCNEES 39% → 46%
06
Mary-Alice DohmannKill+6.2%
Kill by Mary-Alice Dohmann
Set 3 · MCNEES 25-24 CSFULL · MCNEES 11% → 17%
07
Arianna EllisKill+6.1%
Kill by Arianna Ellis (set by Italia Bernal)
Set 3 · MCNEES 26-27 CSFULL · CSFULL 88% → 94%
08
CSFULL serverAce+6.1%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Sophia Tocmo
Set 3 · MCNEES 26-28 CSFULL · CSFULL 94% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

McNeeseaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Ava HenryMB	3	8	2	17	.353	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
21Kayla WilsonOH	3	6	3	19	.158	1	2	1	11	2	0	0	0	8
14Gaby SantiagoOH	3	1	1	9	.000	0	0	1	7	3	0	0	0	1
3Corynne HauslerS	3	1	0	2	.500	14	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
12Neal Grace BerryOH	2	3	1	10	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Harmony SolesMB	2	1	1	8	.000	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
1Gabbie MaldonadoOPP	3	9	2	21	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9
10Megan GroseS	3	3	0	5	.600	15	3	0	10	0	0	0	0	6
8Sophia TocmoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	13	2	0	0	0	1
4Carli BanksOH	2	2	2	10	.000	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
9Harmony JacksonOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
5Maleah MutterbackMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4
11Mary-Alice DohmannOH	1	1	1	3	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Bailey FoolkesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	17	113	.177	34	7	6	49	9	3	2	4	69

Cal St. Fullertonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Bella RislingOH	3	16	7	37	.243	0	2	3	5	3	2	1	19
3Sofia ShineOH	3	11	4	35	.200	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11
9Hannah HassMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	6
12Italia BernalS	3	3	2	9	.111	35	1	2	5	0	2	1	5
13Emilia GrahamMB	3	1	0	4	.250	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	2
7Jaiden MojicaS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	10	0	0	0	1
14Arianna EllisOH	3	7	1	17	.353	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	7
2Parys TaylorOH	3	2	0	4	.500	0	1	2	9	2	0	0	3
11Mia FeldhausL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	3	0	15	0	0	0	3
15Kaieva ChristensenL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	15	117	.248	43	9	8	55	7	8	4	79

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 MCNEES · CSFULL 7

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 5 MCNEESCSFULL 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 5 MCNEESCSFULL 7

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 4 MCNEESCSFULL 3

Bars above the line = Cal St. Fullerton leads, below = McNeese leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

McNeese

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	33%3/9
2	62%8/13	33%4/12
3	58%7/12	33%4/12
4	54%7/13	53%8/15
5	33%5/15	42%5/12
6	50%5/10	50%5/10
All	51%40/78	41%29/70

Cal St. Fullerton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	42%5/12
2	80%8/10	50%8/16
3	47%7/15	30%3/10
4	70%7/10	46%6/13
5	43%6/14	50%6/12
6	56%5/9	67%10/15
All	59%41/70	49%38/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

148 rallies

Rally log

#	MCNEES-CSFULL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+2.4
2	0-2	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Ava Henry		+2.4
3	0-3	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+2.3
4	1-3	CSFULL	MCNEES	Attack err	Sofia Shine	blk Ava Henry, Neal Grace Berry	+1.7
5	1-4	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.8
6	2-4	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+1.7
7	2-5	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.9
8	3-5	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+1.7
9	3-6	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.9
10	3-7	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+2.3
11	4-7	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gaby Santiago	set Megan Grose	+1.6
12	4-8	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.8
13	5-8	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.6
14	5-9	MCNEES	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+1.8
15	5-10	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Italia Bernal		+2.1
16	5-11	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado	blk Bella Risling, Hannah Hass	+1.7
17	6-11	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.1
18	6-12	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+1.3
19	7-12	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.1
20	8-12	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Risling		+1.8
21	8-13	MCNEES	CSFULL×4	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.7
22	8-14	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Gaby Santiago	+1.7
23	8-15	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+1.3
24	8-16	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Kill	Italia Bernal	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.9
25	9-16	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Neal Grace Berry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.5
26	9-17	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.7
27	9-18	CSFULL	CSFULL	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+0.5
28	10-18	CSFULL	MCNEES×5	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.2
29	11-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Bella Risling	+0.5
30	12-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.7
31	13-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Bella Risling	+1.1
32	14-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Megan Grose	+1.6
33	14-19	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.7
34	14-20	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Mia Feldhaus	+1.5
35	15-20	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Megan Grose	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.7
36	15-21	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.0
37	16-21	CSFULL	MCNEES×4	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.6
38	17-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Bad set	Italia Bernal		+1.2
39	18-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Megan Grose	set Italia Bernal	+1.9
40	19-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+3.0
41	19-22	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+3.3
42	20-22	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+2.2
43	20-23	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Italia Bernal	+3.4
44	21-23	CSFULL	MCNEES×3	Serve err	CSFULL server		+2.0
45	22-23	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Bad set	Italia Bernal		+4.6
46	23-23	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+7.5
47	23-24	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+7.6
48	24-24	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+7.6
49	24-25	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+7.6
50	24-26	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Gaby Santiago	+9.8
Set 2
1	0-1	MCNEES	CSFULL	Attack err	Gaby Santiago	blk Hannah Hass, Italia Bernal	+1.8
2	0-2	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Emilia Graham	+2.3
3	1-2	CSFULL	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Risling		+1.8
4	1-3	MCNEES	CSFULL	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+1.8
5	2-3	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+1.8
6	3-3	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Team	+2.5
7	3-4	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.9
8	3-5	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+2.5
9	4-5	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+1.9
10	4-6	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Arianna Ellis	+2.0
11	5-6	CSFULL	MCNEES×5	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+1.9
12	6-6	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Bella Risling		+2.6
13	7-6	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Arianna Ellis		+2.7
14	8-6	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Team	+2.7
15	9-6	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Bella Risling	+2.7
16	9-7	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.9
17	10-7	CSFULL	MCNEES	Attack err	Italia Bernal		+2.1
18	11-7	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Parys Taylor	+2.5
19	11-8	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+1.7
20	11-9	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+2.5
21	12-9	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+2.2
22	12-10	MCNEES	CSFULL×3	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+2.0
23	12-11	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Harmony Jackson	+2.9
24	12-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Kayla Wilson	+3.2
25	13-12	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Megan Grose	+2.6
26	13-13	MCNEES	CSFULL	Bad set	Sophia Tocmo		+2.6
27	14-13	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+2.7
28	15-13	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+3.5
29	15-14	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+2.5
30	15-15	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Gaby Santiago	+3.6
31	16-15	CSFULL	MCNEES×3	Kill	Megan Grose	set Kayla Wilson	+3.0
32	17-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Carli Banks	set Corynne Hausler	+3.8
33	18-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Bella Risling		+3.5
34	18-16	MCNEES	CSFULL×3	Kill	Emilia Graham	set Mia Feldhaus	+2.3
35	18-17	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+3.7
36	18-18	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Italia Bernal	+4.3
37	19-18	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Corynne Hausler	set Carli Banks	+3.6
38	19-19	MCNEES	CSFULL×7	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+3.5
39	19-20	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Carli Banks	blk Bella Risling, Hannah Hass	+5.0
40	19-21	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+4.9
41	19-22	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Harmony Jackson	blk Italia Bernal, Hannah Hass	+4.1
42	19-23	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Sophia Tocmo	+2.8
43	19-24	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Kill	Italia Bernal	set Jaiden Mojica	+1.3
44	19-25	CSFULL	CSFULL×7	Attack err	Harmony Soles		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Kayla Wilson	+1.5
2	1-1	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.2
3	2-1	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Risling	blk Maleah Mutterback	+1.6
4	2-2	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+1.2
5	3-2	CSFULL	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Risling	blk Maleah Mutterback	+1.2
6	3-3	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.2
7	3-4	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Mia Feldhaus	+1.6
8	4-4	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+1.2
9	4-5	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+1.3
10	4-6	CSFULL	CSFULL	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+1.6
11	5-6	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.2
12	5-7	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+1.3
13	5-8	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.6
14	6-8	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.1
15	7-8	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Neal Grace Berry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.7
16	7-9	MCNEES	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Maleah Mutterback		+1.4
17	7-10	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.7
18	7-11	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Carli Banks		+1.5
19	8-11	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+1.0
20	8-12	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+1.2
21	9-12	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+1.0
22	9-13	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+1.2
23	9-14	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado		+1.3
24	10-14	CSFULL	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.8
25	11-14	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Bella Risling		+1.4
26	12-14	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+1.7
27	12-15	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Mia Feldhaus	+1.5
28	13-15	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.3
29	14-15	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry		+2.0
30	14-16	MCNEES	CSFULL	Attack err	Neal Grace Berry		+1.8
31	14-17	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Ava Henry		+2.1
32	15-17	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.4
33	16-17	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Carli Banks	set Mary-Alice Dohmann	+2.2
34	16-18	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+2.0
35	16-19	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+2.3
36	17-19	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.4
37	17-20	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+1.8
38	18-20	CSFULL	MCNEES×4	Kill	Neal Grace Berry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.4
39	19-20	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Hannah Hass	blk Maleah Mutterback	+2.5
40	20-20	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Parys Taylor	+3.2
41	21-20	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+3.6
42	21-21	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+2.7
43	22-21	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Maleah Mutterback	set Megan Grose	+3.2
44	22-22	MCNEES	CSFULL	Serve err	MCNEES server		+3.1
45	22-23	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+4.8
46	23-23	CSFULL	MCNEES	Attack err	Italia Bernal		+3.6
47	23-24	MCNEES	CSFULL	Attack err	Mary-Alice Dohmann		+4.7
48	24-24	CSFULL	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+4.7
49	25-24	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Mary-Alice Dohmann		+6.2
50	25-25	MCNEES	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+4.8
51	26-25	CSFULL	MCNEES	Serve err	CSFULL server		+4.8
52	26-26	MCNEES	CSFULL×3	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+4.8
53	26-27	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Italia Bernal	+6.1
54	26-28	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Sophia Tocmo	+6.1

Score shown after each rally, McNeese first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.