FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

Rice def. McNeese 3–0

(25-18, 25-14, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MCNEES	18	14	20	0
RICE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RICE above 50 · MCNEES below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to McNeese — set 1, MCNEES 16-16 RICE. McNeese ace on Campbell Love. RICE win probability 98% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MCNEES 1.6%98.4% RICE

McNeese wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.4%

3-2

1.0%

Rice wins

3-0

69.7%

3-1

23.7%

3-2

5.0%

MCNEES break %: 32.6% vs this opp
RICE break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MCNEES serverAce+0.6%
McNeese ace on Campbell Love
Set 1 · MCNEES 16-16 RICE · MCNEES 2% → 2%
02
Carli BanksAttack error+0.5%
Carli Banks stuffed by Kaia Mateo & Arissa Smith
Set 1 · MCNEES 16-18 RICE · RICE 98% → 99%
03
Sydnee PetersonAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Sydnee Peterson
Set 1 · MCNEES 15-16 RICE · MCNEES 1% → 2%
04
Stephanie GutierrezKill+0.4%
Kill by Stephanie Gutierrez (set by Kaia Mateo)
Set 1 · MCNEES 16-17 RICE · RICE 98% → 98%
05
Kaia MateoKill+0.3%
Kill by Kaia Mateo (set by Corynne Hausler)
Set 1 · MCNEES 16-19 RICE · RICE 99% → 99%
06
MCNEES serverAce+0.2%
McNeese ace on Team
Set 1 · MCNEES 14-16 RICE · MCNEES 1% → 1%
07
Gabbie MaldonadoAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Gabbie Maldonado
Set 1 · MCNEES 1-2 RICE · RICE 98% → 99%
08
Kellen DorotikAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Kellen Dorotik
Set 1 · MCNEES 11-13 RICE · MCNEES 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

McNeeseaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Ava HenryMB	3	5	5	16	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	7
1Gabbie MaldonadoOPP	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Harmony JacksonOH	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	3
4Carli BanksOH	3	2	2	10	.000	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	3
10Megan GroseS	3	3	0	5	.600	11	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	3
2Harmony SolesMB	2	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Kayla WilsonOH	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
14Gaby SantiagoOH	3	0	0	3	.000	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	0	2
3Corynne HauslerS	3	0	0	1	.000	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Sophia TocmoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	10	1	0	0	0	0
22Aaniyah KitchenMB	2	2	3	9	-.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Mary-Alice DohmannOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Maleah MutterbackMB	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
12Neal Grace BerryOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Bailey FoolkesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	22	91	.033	21	4	5	32	4	1	8	5	52

Ricehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Sydnee PetersonOH	3	17	2	36	.417	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	18
3Kaia MateoS	3	4	0	6	.667	34	0	2	4	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
13Stephanie GutierrezMB	3	3	2	7	.143	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	4
16Mari FuroyamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	1
21Arissa SmithMB	2	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
4Kellen DorotikOPP	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Ashlyn SeayOH	3	8	2	18	.333	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	11
6Campbell LoveL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
9Jordan HummelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
22Amalia SimmonsMB	2	3	4	15	-.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
11Ellie SchneiderMB	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	4
2Bella LopezOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Declan EastmanL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	14	100	.290	37	4	9	39	4	4	14	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MCNEES · RICE 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 MCNEESRICE 8

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 MCNEESRICE 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 MCNEESRICE 3

Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = McNeese leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

McNeese

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	38%3/8
2	46%6/13	22%2/9
3	67%6/9	50%6/12
4	55%6/11	0%0/6
5	35%6/17	33%3/9
6	33%4/12	33%3/9
All	47%35/74	32%17/53

Rice

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	54%7/13
2	46%6/13	40%4/10
3	100%6/6	45%5/11
4	67%6/9	45%5/11
5	75%6/8	67%12/18
6	63%5/8	55%6/11
All	68%36/53	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	MCNEES-RICE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	RICE	MCNEES	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik		+0.2
2	1-1	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
3	1-2	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado		+0.2
4	2-2	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Megan Grose		+0.2
5	2-3	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
6	3-3	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Megan Grose	+0.2
7	3-4	MCNEES	RICE	Attack err	Harmony Jackson	blk Kaia Mateo	+0.2
8	3-5	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
9	4-5	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.2
10	4-6	MCNEES	RICE×4	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
11	4-7	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
12	4-8	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Campbell Love	+0.1
13	4-9	RICE	RICE×4	Attack err	Aaniyah Kitchen		+0.1
14	5-9	RICE	MCNEES	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+0.1
15	5-10	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
16	5-11	RICE	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith		+0.1
17	6-11	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Megan Grose	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
18	6-12	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
19	7-12	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Carli Banks	set Megan Grose	+0.0
20	8-12	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.1
21	8-13	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
22	9-13	RICE	MCNEES×3	Serve err	RICE server		+0.1
23	10-13	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Megan Grose	+0.1
24	11-13	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik		+0.2
25	11-14	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
26	12-14	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.2
27	12-15	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
28	12-16	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Aaniyah Kitchen	blk Ashlyn Seay	+0.2
29	13-16	RICE	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez	blk Harmony Jackson, Harmony Soles	+0.1
30	14-16	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Team	+0.2
31	15-16	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.4
32	16-16	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Campbell Love	+0.6
33	16-17	MCNEES	RICE×8	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.4
34	16-18	RICE	RICE×8	Attack err	Carli Banks	blk Kaia Mateo, Arissa Smith	+0.5
35	16-19	RICE	RICE×8	Kill	Kaia Mateo	set Corynne Hausler	+0.3
36	16-20	RICE	RICE×8	Attack err	Harmony Soles		+0.2
37	16-21	RICE	RICE×8	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
38	16-22	RICE	RICE×8	Attack err	Aaniyah Kitchen	blk Ashlyn Seay, Arissa Smith	+0.0
39	16-23	RICE	RICE×8	Attack err	Harmony Soles	blk Ashlyn Seay	+0.0
40	16-24	RICE	RICE×8	Ace	RICE server	aced Gaby Santiago	+0.0
41	17-24	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
42	18-24	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
43	18-25	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MCNEES	RICE	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.1
2	1-1	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.1
3	1-2	MCNEES	RICE×5	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
4	1-3	RICE	RICE×5	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.1
5	1-4	RICE	RICE×5	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+0.1
6	1-5	RICE	RICE×5	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Stephanie Gutierrez	+0.1
7	1-6	RICE	RICE×5	Kill	Kaia Mateo	set Megan Grose	+0.1
8	2-6	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Megan Grose		+0.0
9	2-7	MCNEES	RICE	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
10	2-8	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Ava Henry		+0.0
11	3-8	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
12	3-9	MCNEES	RICE×3	Kill	Kaia Mateo		+0.0
13	3-10	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Carli Banks		+0.0
14	3-11	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
15	4-11	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
16	4-12	MCNEES	RICE	Attack err	Harmony Soles		+0.0
17	5-12	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
18	5-13	MCNEES	RICE	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado	blk Arissa Smith, Amalia Simmons	+0.0
19	5-14	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+0.0
20	6-14	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
21	7-14	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+0.0
22	7-15	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
23	7-16	RICE	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
24	8-16	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.0
25	9-16	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Mari Furoyama	+0.0
26	9-17	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
27	10-17	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
28	10-18	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
29	10-19	RICE	RICE	Ace	RICE server	aced Sophia Tocmo	+0.0
30	11-19	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Aaniyah Kitchen	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
31	11-20	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
32	12-20	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Aaniyah Kitchen	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
33	12-21	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Kaia Mateo		+0.0
34	12-22	RICE	RICE	Kill	Bella Lopez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
35	13-22	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
36	14-22	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Team	+0.0
37	14-23	MCNEES	RICE×3	Kill	Bella Lopez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
38	14-24	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
39	14-25	RICE	RICE×3	Ace	RICE server	aced Carli Banks	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson		+0.1
2	1-1	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.0
3	1-2	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Ellie Schneider	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
4	1-3	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Ava Henry		+0.0
5	2-3	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.0
6	3-3	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+0.1
7	3-4	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
8	3-5	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
9	4-5	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Megan Grose	+0.0
10	4-6	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
11	4-7	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
12	5-7	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
13	5-8	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
14	6-8	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
15	7-8	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Ava Henry, Gabbie Maldonado	+0.1
16	7-9	MCNEES	RICE×3	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
17	7-10	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Ava Henry	blk Ellie Schneider, Amalia Simmons	+0.0
18	7-11	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Jordan Hummel	+0.0
19	8-11	RICE	MCNEES	Attack err	Ellie Schneider		+0.0
20	9-11	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.1
21	9-12	MCNEES	RICE	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
22	9-13	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Kayla Wilson	blk Ellie Schneider, Amalia Simmons	+0.0
23	10-13	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Megan Grose	+0.0
24	10-14	MCNEES	RICE	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
25	10-15	RICE	RICE	Ace	RICE server	aced Carli Banks	+0.0
26	11-15	RICE	MCNEES×4	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.0
27	12-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez		+0.0
28	13-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Amalia Simmons	blk Harmony Jackson, Maleah Mutterback	+0.1
29	14-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.1
30	14-16	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
31	15-16	RICE	MCNEES	Serve err	RICE server		+0.1
32	15-17	MCNEES	RICE	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.1
33	16-17	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Maleah Mutterback	set Corynne Hausler	+0.1
34	16-18	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
35	17-18	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Carli Banks	set Corynne Hausler	+0.1
36	17-19	MCNEES	RICE×3	Bad set	Maleah Mutterback		+0.1
37	17-20	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Ava Henry	blk Ellie Schneider	+0.1
38	17-21	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado	blk Ellie Schneider, Ashlyn Seay	+0.1
39	18-21	RICE	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
40	19-21	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Ellie Schneider	blk Ava Henry	+0.1
41	19-22	MCNEES	RICE×3	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
42	19-23	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
43	19-24	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Ava Henry	blk Ellie Schneider, Amalia Simmons	+0.0
44	20-24	RICE	MCNEES	Attack err	Amalia Simmons	blk Kayla Wilson, Ava Henry	+0.0
45	20-25	MCNEES	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, McNeese first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.