Northwestern State vs McNeese Volleyball: McNeese Wins 3-0

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: McNeese 75.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

McNeese beat visiting Northwestern St. 3-0 (25-9, 25-21, 25-16) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. McNeese's Gabbie Maldonado led with 15 kills, and Sophia Tocmo added 21 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:50 PM CT · final Oct 17

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NW ST	9	21	16	0
MCNEES	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.560 and 15 kills for Gabbie Maldonado as McNeese rolled past Northwestern St.

Win probability never moved more than 2.6 points on one rally; Northwestern St. topped out at 22% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had McNeese at 76%.

Northwestern St.McNeese

Break %+25.5 pts
34.059.5
44 of 74 on serve vs 16 of 47, so Northwestern St.'s sideout was 40.5%.
Hitting+.263
.080.343
43 K / 9 E against 23 K / 15 E.
Longest run+-1
76
McNeese scored 6 straight in the first set to stretch a 16–6 lead to 22–6. The set finished 25–9.

McNeese above 50Northwestern St. belowMax swing 2.6%

Northwestern St.McNeese

Aces: Northwestern St. 8·McNeese 9
Serve err: Northwestern St. 6·McNeese 6
Blocks: Northwestern St. 2·McNeese 31 BS · 2 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Northwestern St. 38·McNeese 55

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

McNeese above 50 · Northwestern St. below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Northwestern St. — set 2, NW ST 15-14 MCNEES. Attack error by Ava Henry. MCNEES win probability 86% → 83%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW ST 20.2%79.8% MCNEES

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

3.3%

3-1

6.7%

3-2

10.2%

McNeese wins

3-0

31.3%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

18.3%

NW ST break %: 38.5% vs this opp
MCNEES break %: 44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Ava HenryAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Ava Henry
Set 2 · NW ST 15-14 MCNEES · NW ST 14% → 17%
02
Kayla WilsonKill+2.5%
Kill by Kayla Wilson (set by Corynne Hausler)
Set 2 · NW ST 15-16 MCNEES · MCNEES 85% → 88%
03
Carli Banks&Ava HenryBlock+2.4%
Kenadii Winfrey stuffed by Carli Banks & Ava Henry
Set 2 · NW ST 16-18 MCNEES · MCNEES 88% → 90%
04
Northwestern St.Ace+2.3%
Northwestern St. ace on Carli Banks
Set 2 · NW ST 14-14 MCNEES · NW ST 12% → 14%
05
Ava HenryKill+2.0%
Kill by Ava Henry
Set 2 · NW ST 16-19 MCNEES · MCNEES 90% → 92%
06
Harmony JacksonAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Harmony Jackson
Set 2 · NW ST 13-14 MCNEES · NW ST 10% → 12%
07
Carli BanksKill+1.9%
Kill by Carli Banks (set by Megan Grose)
Set 1 · NW ST 0-1 MCNEES · MCNEES 76% → 78%
08
Northwestern St.Service error+1.9%
Northwestern St. service error
Set 2 · NW ST 16-17 MCNEES · MCNEES 86% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Northwestern St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	6	4	20	.100	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
6Amber CraigOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	2	4	9	-.222	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
11Jade LongladS	3	0	1	7	-.143	14	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	0
9Elizabeth MuguruzaOH	1	1	1	11	.000	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	1
17Elsie SanchezOH	3	7	1	21	.286	0	3	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	3
5Gillian Grace WolfOH	3	0	0	10	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	0
7Harper CauleyL/DS	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	0	3	3	0	0	0	3
1Julia WhitfieldMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		23	15	100	.080	18	8	6	38	9	1	2	2	46

McNeesehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Gabbie MaldonadoOPP	3	15	1	25	.560	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	16
23Ava HenryMB	3	10	3	15	.467	0	2	0	1	0	2	1	13
4Carli BanksOH	3	5	2	14	.214	1	1	1	8	2	1	0.5	6.5
9Harmony JacksonOH	3	5	1	10	.400	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	5
10Megan GroseS	3	1	1	5	.000	17	4	1	5	0	0	0	5
2Harmony SolesMB	3	1	0	6	.167	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
21Kayla WilsonOH	3	6	1	19	.263	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
3Corynne HauslerS	3	0	0	2	.000	15	1	2	3	0	0	0	1
14Gaby SantiagoOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0
8Sophia TocmoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	0	0	21	3	0	0	0
12Neal Grace BerryOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	9	99	.343	41	9	6	55	8	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NW ST · MCNEES 6

Set 1

9-25

Longest run 3 NW STMCNEES 6

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 7 NW STMCNEES 4

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 NW STMCNEES 5

Bars above the line = McNeese leads, below = Northwestern St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	30%6/20	29%2/7
2	33%5/15	63%10/16
3	71%5/7	0%0/5
4	38%5/13	0%0/5
5	50%5/10	44%4/9
6	44%4/9	0%0/5
All	41%30/74	34%16/47

McNeese

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	65%11/17
2	45%5/11	72%13/18
3	100%5/5	17%1/6
4	63%5/8	58%7/12
5	83%5/6	58%7/12
6	100%4/4	56%5/9
All	66%31/47	59%44/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

121 rallies

#	NW ST-MCNEES	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Carli Banks	set Megan Grose	+1.9
2	0-2	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	Megan Grose	aced Valerie Brown	+1.8
3	1-2	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.3
4	1-3	NW ST	MCNEES×4	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.3
5	1-4	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Jade Longlad		+1.6
6	1-5	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+1.4
7	1-6	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.2
8	2-6	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Megan Grose	+0.8
9	2-7	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+0.8
10	3-7	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.8
11	3-8	NW ST	MCNEES×5	Blocked	Valerie Brown	blk Gabbie Maldonado, Ava Henry	+0.9
12	3-9	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Ace	McNeese	aced Elizabeth Muguruza	+1.0
13	3-10	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+0.7
14	3-11	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.5
15	3-12	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.4
16	4-12	MCNEES	NW ST	Serve err	McNeese		+0.2
17	4-13	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.2
18	4-14	MCNEES	MCNEES	Bad set	Elsie Sanchez		+0.2
19	5-14	MCNEES	NW ST	Serve err	McNeese		+0.1
20	5-15	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.1
21	5-16	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.1
22	6-16	MCNEES	NW ST	Serve err	McNeese		·
23	6-17	NW ST	MCNEES×6	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+0.1
24	6-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		·
25	6-19	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	·
26	6-20	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Ace	McNeese	aced Valerie Brown	·
27	6-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Ace	McNeese	aced Valerie Brown	·
28	6-22	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Harmony Soles	·
29	7-22	MCNEES	NW ST×3	Serve err	McNeese		·
30	8-22	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Anna Claire Hebert	·
31	9-22	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Carli Banks		·
32	9-23	NW ST	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	·
33	9-24	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Sophia Tocmo	·
34	9-25	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Ace	McNeese	aced Elizabeth Muguruza	·
Set 2
1	1-0	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.		+1.6
2	1-1	NW ST	MCNEES×3	Kill	Megan Grose	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.1
3	1-2	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Ava Henry	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.5
4	1-3	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+1.4
5	2-3	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
6	2-4	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+1.0
7	3-4	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+1.0
8	3-5	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+1.0
9	4-5	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+1.1
10	4-6	NW ST	MCNEES×4	Kill	Carli Banks	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.1
11	4-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+1.4
12	4-8	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	McNeese	aced Harper Cauley	+1.2
13	4-9	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	McNeese		+1.0
14	5-9	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
15	6-9	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Sophia Tocmo	+1.1
16	6-10	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.9
17	6-11	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Carli Banks	set Megan Grose	+1.0
18	7-11	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
19	7-12	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.7
20	8-12	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
21	8-13	NW ST	MCNEES	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.7
22	8-14	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.8
23	9-14	MCNEES	NW ST×7	Attack err	Megan Grose		+0.4
24	10-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Blocked	Gabbie Maldonado	blk Olivia Nzioki	+0.8
25	11-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Harmony Jackson	+1.1
26	12-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Emmarie McFarland	+1.5
27	13-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+1.9
28	14-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Carli Banks	+2.3
29	15-14	NW ST	NW ST×7	Attack err	Ava Henry		+2.6
30	15-15	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.8
31	15-16	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+2.5
32	16-16	MCNEES	NW ST	Attack err	Ava Henry		+1.8
33	16-17	NW ST	MCNEES×3	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.9
34	16-18	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Blocked	Kenadii Winfrey	blk Carli Banks, Ava Henry	+2.4
35	16-19	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Ava Henry		+2.0
36	17-19	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.2
37	17-20	NW ST	MCNEES	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.5
38	18-20	MCNEES	NW ST	Attack err	Carli Banks		+1.2
39	18-21	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+1.6
40	19-21	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+1.2
41	19-22	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.6
42	19-23	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+1.4
43	20-23	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.5
44	21-23	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Sophia Tocmo	+1.3
45	21-24	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+1.7
46	21-25	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.8
Set 3
1	0-1	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.8
2	1-1	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
3	1-2	NW ST	MCNEES	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.6
4	2-2	MCNEES	NW ST	Serve err	Carli Banks		+0.6
5	2-3	NW ST	MCNEES	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.6
6	3-3	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
7	3-4	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.6
8	3-5	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.8
9	4-5	MCNEES	NW ST	Serve err	Corynne Hausler		+0.6
10	5-5	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Carli Banks	+0.9
11	5-6	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.6
12	6-6	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Harper Cauley		+0.6
13	6-7	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.6
14	7-7	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Kenadii Winfrey	+0.7
15	7-8	NW ST	MCNEES×3	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.7
16	7-9	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.9
17	7-10	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Ace	Megan Grose	aced Harper Cauley	+0.8
18	8-10	MCNEES	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.5
19	9-10	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Sophia Tocmo	+0.9
20	10-10	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Gaby Santiago	+1.0
21	10-11	NW ST	MCNEES×5	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Megan Grose	+0.7
22	10-12	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Carli Banks	+1.0
23	10-13	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+0.8
24	10-14	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Attack err	Amber Craig		+0.7
25	10-15	MCNEES	MCNEES×5	Blocked	Kenadii Winfrey	blk Harmony Soles, Gabbie Maldonado	+0.5
26	11-15	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.3
27	11-16	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+0.4
28	12-16	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.3
29	12-17	NW ST	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.4
30	13-17	MCNEES	NW ST×3	Attack err	Ava Henry		+0.3
31	14-17	NW ST	NW ST×3	Blocked	Kayla Wilson	blk Olivia Nzioki, Elsie Sanchez	+0.6
32	15-17	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.8
33	15-18	NW ST	MCNEES×4	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.7
34	15-19	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.8
35	15-20	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Carli Banks	set Corynne Hausler	+0.5
36	15-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Bad set	Anna Claire Hebert		+0.3
37	16-21	MCNEES	NW ST	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert	set Corynne Hausler	+0.1
38	16-22	NW ST	MCNEES×4	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.2
39	16-23	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.1
40	16-24	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Carli Banks	set Corynne Hausler	·
41	16-25	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	Neal Grace Berry	aced Harper Cauley	·

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

McNeese def. Northwestern St. 3–0

.560 and 15 kills for Gabbie Maldonado as McNeese rolled past Northwestern St.