FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeCAA

NC State def. Stony Brook 3–0

(25-22, 25-15, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NC ST	25	25	25	3
STONY	22	15	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STONY above 50 · NC ST below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Stony Brook — set 1, NC ST 22-22 STONY. Kill by Ayanna Pierre Louis (set by Carey-Jean Block). STONY win probability 10% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NC ST 89.7%10.3% STONY

NC State wins

3-0

43.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.2%

Stony Brook wins

3-0

1.4%

3-1

3.2%

3-2

5.8%

NC ST break %: 48.3% vs this opp
STONY break %: 38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ayanna Pierre LouisKill+3.3%
Kill by Ayanna Pierre Louis (set by Carey-Jean Block)
Set 1 · NC ST 22-22 STONY · STONY 10% → 13%
02
Avari AmstutzAttack error+3.3%
Avari Amstutz stuffed by Talia Francom & Jordan Smith
Set 1 · NC ST 24-22 STONY · NC ST 90% → 93%
03
STONY serverService error+3.0%
Stony Brook service error
Set 1 · NC ST 23-22 STONY · NC ST 87% → 90%
04
Damisi OsiboduAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Damisi Osibodu
Set 1 · NC ST 22-20 STONY · NC ST 89% → 92%
05
Rebecca RingKill+2.2%
Kill by Rebecca Ring (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · NC ST 21-20 STONY · NC ST 87% → 89%
06
Ella SandersAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Ella Sanders
Set 1 · NC ST 18-17 STONY · NC ST 87% → 89%
07
Britni SilverKill+2.1%
Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · NC ST 16-16 STONY · NC ST 85% → 87%
08
Ella SandersKill+2.1%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Ellery Singleton)
Set 1 · NC ST 20-20 STONY · STONY 11% → 13%

Official NCAA box

Box score

NC Stateaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
42Britni SilverOH	3	15	5	27	.370	0	0	1	9	1	2	1	16
27Rebecca RingOH	3	10	0	19	.526	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
23Jordan SmithOPP	3	9	1	20	.400	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	11
17Talia FrancomMB	3	4	0	13	.308	0	0	0	0	0	8	4	8
14Norah BuschMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	1	1	0	4	2	5
22Eva LongS	3	0	0	4	.000	34	0	1	10	0	3	1.5	1.5
3Clara VondranOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	2
7Kate KilpatrickL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
31Elaisa VillarL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	5	0	0	0	0
1Zuzanna MaciejewiczL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	13	0	0	0	0
12Makenna KowrenOPP	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	7	92	.391	41	1	8	44	1	24	12	75

Stony Brookhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Ella SandersOH	3	12	9	38	.079	0	1	1	6	0	1	0.5	13.5
11Mopelola OjoMB	3	4	2	13	.154	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
7Ayanna Pierre LouisMB	3	4	2	12	.167	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Damisi OsiboduMB	3	2	3	7	-.143	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Rayanne WheatS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
12Avari AmstutzOH	2	1	2	10	-.100	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
14Quinn AndersonOH	3	10	4	19	.316	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10
3Carey-Jean BlockL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	14	0	0	0	0
18Zayda FuertezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
4Hanna BerkefeltOH	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2
17Ellery SingletonS	2	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
9Taryn SuS	2	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	24	109	.101	34	1	6	42	1	4	2	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 NC ST · STONY 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 NC STSTONY 5

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 NC STSTONY 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 6 NC STSTONY 2

Bars above the line = Stony Brook leads, below = NC State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

NC State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	0%0/6
2	50%7/14	56%9/16
3	75%6/8	54%7/13
4	86%6/7	60%9/15
5	60%6/10	54%7/13
6	100%6/6	40%4/10
All	72%39/54	49%36/73

Stony Brook

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	11%1/9
2	67%6/9	42%5/12
3	43%6/14	33%3/9
4	35%6/17	25%2/8
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	67%6/9	0%0/6
All	51%37/73	28%15/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	NC ST-STONY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STONY	NC ST×4	Serve err	STONY server		+0.8
2	2-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+0.9
3	3-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Avari Amstutz	blk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith	+0.8
4	4-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Bad set	Rayanne Wheat		+0.7
5	4-1	NC ST	STONY×4	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.5
6	4-2	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.8
7	4-3	STONY	STONY×4	Ace	STONY server	aced Britni Silver	+1.0
8	4-4	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.2
9	5-4	STONY	NC ST	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+0.9
10	5-5	NC ST	STONY	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+1.0
11	6-5	STONY	NC ST×3	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.9
12	7-5	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+1.1
13	8-5	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Mopelola Ojo		+0.9
14	8-6	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
15	8-7	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Carey-Jean Block	+1.1
16	9-7	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.9
17	9-8	NC ST	STONY×5	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Ellery Singleton	+0.9
18	9-9	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.4
19	9-10	STONY	STONY×5	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.6
20	9-11	STONY	STONY×5	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+1.8
21	9-12	STONY	STONY×5	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+2.0
22	10-12	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.3
23	10-13	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+1.6
24	11-13	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+1.3
25	11-14	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+1.7
26	12-14	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.4
27	13-14	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+1.9
28	13-15	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+1.8
29	14-15	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.5
30	14-16	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+1.9
31	15-16	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.6
32	16-16	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+2.1
33	16-17	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+1.9
34	17-17	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.7
35	18-17	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+2.2
36	18-18	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+1.8
37	19-18	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.8
38	19-19	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+1.9
39	20-19	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+1.9
40	20-20	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Ellery Singleton	+2.1
41	21-20	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+2.2
42	22-20	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+2.5
43	22-21	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Zayda Fuertez	+1.6
44	22-22	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Carey-Jean Block	+3.3
45	23-22	STONY	NC ST×3	Serve err	STONY server		+3.0
46	24-22	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Avari Amstutz	blk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith	+3.3
47	25-22	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Britni Silver	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+1.6
Set 2
1	0-1	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+0.6
2	1-1	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.6
3	1-2	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.7
4	2-2	STONY	NC ST×4	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.6
5	3-2	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.7
6	4-2	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Kate Kilpatrick	+0.7
7	5-2	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Mopelola Ojo		+0.6
8	5-3	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
9	6-3	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.4
10	7-3	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+0.5
11	7-4	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.4
12	8-4	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.4
13	9-4	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Norah Busch, Eva Long	+0.4
14	9-5	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ellery Singleton	+0.3
15	10-5	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.3
16	10-6	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
17	11-6	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.3
18	11-7	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.3
19	12-7	STONY	NC ST	Attack err	Hanna Berkefelt	blk Rebecca Ring, Talia Francom	+0.3
20	12-8	NC ST	STONY×3	Kill	Hanna Berkefelt	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.3
21	12-9	STONY	STONY×3	Bad set	Eva Long		+0.5
22	12-10	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Mopelola Ojo, Ayanna Pierre Louis	+0.7
23	13-10	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.6
24	14-10	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.6
25	14-11	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Hanna Berkefelt	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.4
26	14-12	STONY	STONY	Kill	Mopelola Ojo	set Ellery Singleton	+0.7
27	15-12	STONY	NC ST×5	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.6
28	16-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.6
29	17-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Norah Busch, Eva Long	+0.5
30	18-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.3
31	19-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.2
32	19-13	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Mopelola Ojo	set Taryn Su	+0.1
33	20-13	STONY	NC ST	Serve err	STONY server		+0.1
34	20-14	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.1
35	21-14	STONY	NC ST×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Norah Busch, Eva Long	+0.1
36	22-14	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Rebecca Ring		+0.1
37	23-14	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+0.0
38	24-14	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC ST server	aced Team	+0.0
39	24-15	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.0
40	25-15	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Elaisa Villar	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	STONY	NC ST×4	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
2	2-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu		+0.3
3	3-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Rebecca Ring, Talia Francom	+0.3
4	4-0	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
5	4-1	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.2
6	5-1	STONY	NC ST	Attack err	Hanna Berkefelt	blk Talia Francom, Rebecca Ring	+0.2
7	5-2	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
8	6-2	STONY	NC ST	Serve err	STONY server		+0.2
9	6-3	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
10	7-3	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.2
11	7-4	NC ST	STONY	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.2
12	8-4	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.2
13	9-4	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
14	9-5	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Taryn Su	+0.1
15	10-5	STONY	NC ST	Serve err	STONY server		+0.1
16	10-6	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.1
17	10-7	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
18	11-7	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.2
19	11-8	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
20	11-9	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.3
21	12-9	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.3
22	13-9	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Britni Silver, Talia Francom	+0.3
23	13-10	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Carey-Jean Block	+0.2
24	13-11	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.3
25	14-11	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.3
26	15-11	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.3
27	15-12	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Mopelola Ojo	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
28	16-12	STONY	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.2
29	17-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.2
30	18-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Elaisa Villar	+0.1
31	19-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.1
32	20-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Taryn Su	+0.0
33	21-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Britni Silver, Norah Busch	+0.0
34	21-13	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Mopelola Ojo	set Taryn Su	+0.0
35	22-13	STONY	NC ST	Serve err	STONY server		+0.0
36	22-14	NC ST	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.0
37	23-14	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Elaisa Villar	+0.0
38	23-15	NC ST	STONY	Attack err	Makenna Kowren	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.0
39	24-15	STONY	NC ST	Kill	Makenna Kowren	set Elaisa Villar	+0.0
40	25-15	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Quinn Anderson		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, NC State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.