Final · 5 setsSun, Sep 6, 2026

NC State def. Charlotte 3–2

NC State beat visiting Charlotte 3-2 (23-25, 22-25, 25-17, 25-14, 15-12) on Sun, Sep 6, 2026. NC State's Jordan Smith led with 17 kills, and Kate Kilpatrick added 11 digs.

Data through · final Sep 6

Set12345Sets
CHAR25251714122
NC ST23222525153

Win probability

NC State above 50 · Charlotte below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+5.7% CHARrally 203 · set 5

Biggest swing: 5.7% to Charlotte — set 5, CHAR 5-6 NC ST. Kill by Clara Briley (set by Zuzanna Maciejewicz). NC ST win probability 90% → 84%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CHAR 2.6%97.4% NC ST

Charlotte wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.7%
3-2
1.6%

NC State wins

3-0
64.2%
3-1
26.4%
3-2
6.8%
CHAR break %
35.5% vs this opp
NC ST break %
50.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Clara BrileyKill+5.7%

    Kill by Clara Briley (set by Zuzanna Maciejewicz)

    Set 5 · CHAR 5-6 NC ST · CHAR 10% → 16%

  2. 02
    Clara BrileyKill+5.3%

    Kill by Clara Briley (set by Milena Lopez)

    Set 2 · CHAR 25-22 NC ST · CHAR 35% → 40%

  3. 03
    Clara VondranKill+5.2%

    Kill by Clara Vondran (set by Eva Long)

    Set 5 · CHAR 7-10 NC ST · NC ST 89% → 94%

  4. 04
    Sophia GroomKill+5.1%

    Kill by Sophia Groom (set by Eva Long)

    Set 5 · CHAR 7-9 NC ST · NC ST 84% → 89%

  5. 05
    Milan CannonKill+5.0%

    Kill by Milan Cannon (set by Milena Lopez)

    Set 5 · CHAR 7-8 NC ST · CHAR 11% → 16%

  6. 06
    Gia McGrewKill+4.7%

    Kill by Gia McGrew (set by Milena Lopez)

    Set 5 · CHAR 6-7 NC ST · CHAR 11% → 16%

  7. 07
    Britni SilverKill+4.7%

    Kill by Britni Silver (set by Zuzanna Maciejewicz)

    Set 5 · CHAR 6-8 NC ST · NC ST 84% → 89%

  8. 08
    Clara BrileyAttack error+4.5%

    Attack error by Clara Briley

    Set 5 · CHAR 11-14 NC ST · NC ST 94% → 98%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516631.3232315300019
515538.26300040111.516.5
58317.29400000052.510.5
55311.18201200052.58.5
55520.000000220427
5001.00021111500001
55523.00000030132.57.5
5102.5001900900001
5000–7111050001
4000–111420001
4000–001000000
1000–100000000
Team totals5527143.196517752142181193
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517139.4100102004220
513429.31003162010.516.5
59320.30001221132.512.5
5116.000493390010.54.5
35619-.053000220216
1112.00000010010.51.5
58122.31802020132.512.5
5000–0201100002
5000–2221010002
5011-1.000601400000
46110.50010040073.59.5
3115.000002000001
Team totals6120153.26858141153722213110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CHAR · NC ST 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 CHARNC ST 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 CHARNC ST 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 CHARNC ST 4

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 3 CHARNC ST 5

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 3 CHARNC ST 4

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = Charlotte leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Charlotte

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
43%6/14
2
69%9/13
25%3/12
3
64%9/14
31%4/13
4
75%9/12
47%8/17
5
41%7/17
38%5/13
6
60%6/10
40%4/10
All
58%49/85
38%30/79

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
42%5/12
2
64%9/14
50%9/18
3
82%9/11
44%7/16
4
50%8/16
18%2/11
5
67%8/12
50%8/16
6
50%6/12
42%5/12
All
62%49/79
42%36/85

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

203 rallies

#CHAR-NC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+0.3
21-1CHARNC STAttack errGia McGrew+0.3
32-1NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Chloe Maughan+0.3
42-2CHARNC ST×3KillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.3
52-3NC STNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.3
62-4NC STNC ST×3Attack errClara Briley+0.3
73-4NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+0.2
83-5CHARNC STServe errCharlotte+0.2
93-6NC STNC STBlockedClara Brileyblk Norah Busch, Jordan Smith+0.2
104-6NC STCHARKillGia McGrewset Clara Briley+0.2
114-7CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.2
125-7NC STCHARAttack errBritni Silver+0.2
135-8CHARNC STServe errCharlotte+0.2
146-8NC STCHAR×3KillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+0.2
157-8CHARCHAR×3Attack errElaisa Villar+0.4
168-8CHARCHAR×3BlockedNorah Buschblk Gia McGrew, Sofia Locadia+0.5
178-9CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.3
189-9NC STCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+0.4
1910-9CHARCHAR×3AceCharlotteaced Rebecca Ring+0.6
2011-9CHARCHAR×3KillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+0.8
2111-10CHARNC ST×3Serve errCharlotte+0.5
2211-11NC STNC ST×3Attack errSofia Locadia+0.6
2311-12NC STNC ST×3Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+0.5
2412-12NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Chloe Maughan+0.5
2512-13CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.4
2612-14NC STNC STAttack errClara Briley+0.5
2713-14NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+0.4
2813-15CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.4
2914-15NC STCHARServe errNC State+0.4
3014-16CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.4
3114-17NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Chloe Maughan+0.4
3215-17NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+0.3
3315-18CHARNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.3
3416-18NC STCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Milena Lopez+0.3
3516-19CHARNC STServe errCharlotte+0.3
3617-19NC STCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Milena Lopez+0.3
3717-20CHARNC STBad setChloe Maughan+0.4
3818-20NC STCHAR×4KillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+0.3
3919-20CHARCHAR×4AceCharlotteaced Rebecca Ring+0.7
4020-20CHARCHAR×4KillSofia Locadia+1.1
4121-20CHARCHAR×4KillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+1.5
4221-21CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.0
4321-22NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.4
4422-22NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+1.1
4522-23CHARNC STServe errCharlotte+1.2
4623-23NC STCHAR×3KillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+1.3
4724-23CHARCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Chloe Maughan+2.8
4825-23CHARCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+4.0
Set 2
10-1CHARNC ST×4KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.8
20-2NC STNC ST×4BlockedSofia Locadiablk Talia Francom, Rebecca Ring+0.9
30-3NC STNC ST×4BlockedMariam Mushkudianiblk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith+0.7
40-4NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.6
51-4NC STCHARServe errNC State+0.5
62-4CHARCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+0.8
72-5CHARNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.6
83-5NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+0.6
93-6CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.6
104-6NC STCHAR×5Attack errSophia Groom+0.7
115-6CHARCHAR×5KillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+1.1
126-6CHARCHAR×5KillMilena Lopezset Eva Long+1.5
137-6CHARCHAR×5Attack errSophia Groom+1.9
148-6CHARCHAR×5Attack errBritni Silver+2.2
158-7CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
169-7NC STCHAR×3KillElena Kovacevicset Milena Lopez+1.8
1710-7CHARCHAR×3Attack errEva Long+2.7
1811-7CHARCHAR×3AceCharlotteaced Britni Silver+3.0
1911-8CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Elaisa Villar+1.8
2012-8NC STCHAR×4KillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+2.5
2113-8CHARCHAR×4KillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+3.3
2214-8CHARCHAR×4Attack errRebecca Ring+3.2
2315-8CHARCHAR×4AceCharlotteaced Sophia Groom+3.0
2415-9CHARNC STKillMakenna Kowrenset Elaisa Villar+1.4
2515-10NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Chloe Maughan+2.3
2616-10NC STCHAR×4KillSofia Locadiaset Milena Lopez+2.6
2717-10CHARCHAR×4BlockedRebecca Ringblk Mariam Mushkudiani, Sofia Locadia+2.9
2818-10CHARCHAR×4BlockedMakenna Kowrenblk Sofia Locadia, Gia McGrew+2.3
2919-10CHARCHAR×4KillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+1.6
3019-11CHARNC STKillTalia Francomset Elaisa Villar+0.6
3119-12NC STNC STAttack errMariam Mushkudiani+1.1
3220-12NC STCHARServe errNC State+1.5
3320-13CHARNC ST×3KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.6
3420-14NC STNC ST×3AceNC Stateaced Chloe Maughan+1.3
3520-15NC STNC ST×3AceNC Stateaced Erin Lehman+1.8
3621-15NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+2.4
3721-16CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.1
3822-16NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Erin Lehman+2.2
3922-17CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.8
4022-18NC STNC STBlockedElena Kovacevicblk Sophia Groom+1.8
4123-18NC STCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Milena Lopez+2.7
4224-18CHARCHARAceCharlotteaced Zuzanna Maciejewicz+1.7
4324-19CHARNC ST×4KillSophia Groomset Elaisa Villar+0.2
4424-20NC STNC ST×4KillRebecca Ringset Elaisa Villar+0.7
4524-21NC STNC ST×4AceNC Stateaced Chloe Maughan+1.3
4624-22NC STNC ST×4BlockedElena Kovacevicblk Sophia Groom, Rebecca Ring+2.6
4725-22NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Milena Lopez+5.3
Set 3
10-1NC STNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+2.2
20-2NC STNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+1.9
31-2NC STCHARServe errNC State+1.6
41-3CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
52-3NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+1.6
63-3CHARCHARAceCharlotte+2.7
73-4CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Elaisa Villar+1.8
83-5NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Gia McGrew+2.2
94-5NC STCHAR×3Attack errRebecca Ring+1.8
105-5CHARCHAR×3BlockedRebecca Ringblk Elena Kovacevic, Milan Cannon+2.9
116-5CHARCHAR×3BlockedRebecca Ringblk Elena Kovacevic, Milan Cannon+3.7
126-6CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+2.4
137-6NC STCHARBlockedTalia Francomblk Elena Kovacevic+3.0
147-7CHARNC ST×4KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+2.6
157-8NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+3.1
167-9NC STNC ST×4Attack errGia McGrew+2.6
177-10NC STNC ST×4Attack errElena Kovacevic+2.1
188-10NC STCHARKillGia McGrewset Chloe Maughan+1.6
199-10CHARCHARAttack errRebecca Ring+2.9
209-11CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.1
219-12NC STNC STBlockedSofia Locadiablk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom+2.3
2210-12NC STCHARKillGia McGrewset Milena Lopez+1.8
2311-12CHARCHARBlockedJordan Smithblk Gia McGrew, Sofia Locadia+3.2
2411-13CHARNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+2.3
2512-13NC STCHARKillGia McGrewset Harper Hall+2.6
2612-14CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.5
2713-14NC STCHARServe errNC State+2.8
2813-15CHARNC STAttack errClara Briley+2.6
2914-15NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Chloe Maughan+2.9
3014-16CHARNC STAttack errMilan Cannon+2.8
3114-17NC STNC STKillClara Vondran+3.0
3215-17NC STCHARServe errNC State+2.2
3315-18CHARNC ST×4KillEva Long+2.3
3415-19NC STNC ST×4BlockedGia McGrewblk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith+2.2
3515-20NC STNC ST×4AceNC Stateaced Clara Briley+1.4
3615-21NC STNC ST×4BlockedElena Kovacevicblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+0.7
3716-21NC STCHARServe errNC State+0.3
3816-22CHARNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.5
3916-23NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.2
4017-23NC STCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Dixie Gayden+0.1
4117-24CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.1
4217-25NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Clara Briley·
Set 4
11-0CHARCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Chloe Maughan+3.4
21-1CHARNC STServe errCharlotte+2.2
32-1NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+2.7
42-2CHARNC ST×4Serve errCharlotte+2.3
52-3NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.8
62-4NC STNC ST×4BlockedMariam Mushkudianiblk Britni Silver, Sophia Groom+2.4
72-5NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.9
83-5NC STCHARKillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+1.5
93-6CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+1.4
103-7NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.6
114-7NC STCHAR×3KillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+1.2
125-7CHARCHAR×3BlockedBritni Silverblk Elena Kovacevic, Milan Cannon+2.1
136-7CHARCHAR×3AceCharlotteaced Britni Silver+2.9
146-8CHARNC ST×5Attack errGia McGrew+2.1
156-9NC STNC ST×5BlockedMilan Cannonblk Sophia Groom, Eva Long+2.3
166-10NC STNC ST×5Attack errMilan Cannon+1.8
176-11NC STNC ST×5AceNC Stateaced Gia McGrew+1.3
186-12NC STNC ST×5AceNC Stateaced Chloe Maughan+0.9
197-12NC STCHARServe errNC State+0.6
208-12CHARCHARBlockedSophia Groomblk Gia McGrew, Sofia Locadia+1.2
218-13CHARNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.0
228-14NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.0
239-14NC STCHARServe errNC State+0.6
249-15CHARNC ST×5KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.7
259-16NC STNC ST×5AceNC Stateaced Clara Briley+0.6
269-17NC STNC ST×5KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.3
279-18NC STNC ST×5BlockedClara Brileyblk Clara Vondran+0.2
289-19NC STNC ST×5BlockedGia McGrewblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+0.1
2910-19NC STCHAR×3Attack errClara Vondran·
3011-19CHARCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Chloe Maughan+0.1
3112-19CHARCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Chloe Maughan+0.2
3212-20CHARNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.2
3312-21NC ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
3413-21NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall·
3513-22CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.1
3613-23NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Erin Lehman·
3714-23NC STCHARAttack errBritni Silver·
3814-24CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long·
3914-25NC STNC STKillBritni Silver+0.8
Set 5
10-1CHARNC ST×4KillClara Vondranset Talia Francom+3.8
20-2NC STNC ST×4BlockedElena Kovacevicblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+4.4
30-3NC STNC ST×4AceNC State+3.5
40-4NC STNC ST×4Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+2.6
51-4NC STCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.9
61-5CHARNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+2.0
72-5NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Harper Hall+1.9
82-6CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.0
93-6NC STCHAR×3Serve errNC State+2.0
104-6CHARCHAR×3KillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+3.9
115-6CHARCHAR×3KillClara Brileyset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+5.7
125-7CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+4.3
136-7NC STCHARKillGia McGrewset Milena Lopez+4.7
146-8CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+4.7
157-8NC STCHARKillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+5.0
167-9CHARNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+5.1
177-10NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+5.2
188-10NC STCHARServe errNC State+3.4
198-11CHARNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+4.0
209-11NC STCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+3.4
219-12CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+4.2
2210-12NC STCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+3.3
2310-13CHARNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+4.4
2411-13NC STCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Clara Briley+2.9
2511-14CHARNC STAttack errClara Briley+4.5
2612-14NC STCHARKillMilan Cannonset Milena Lopez+2.0
2712-15CHARNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+3.9

Score shown after each rally, Charlotte first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).