FinalTue, Sep 15, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeACC

NC State def. App State 3–0

(25-14, 25-10, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
APP ST	14	10	17	0
NC ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NC ST above 50 · APP ST below

Biggest swing: 1.0% to App State — set 1, APP ST 7-7 NC ST. App State ace on Team. NC ST win probability 94% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

APP ST 6.7%93.3% NC ST

App State wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.9%

NC State wins

3-0

51.1%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

11.5%

APP ST break %: 35.2% vs this opp
NC ST break %: 46.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
APP ST serverAce+1.0%
App State ace on Team
Set 1 · APP ST 7-7 NC ST · APP ST 6% → 7%
02
Britni SilverKill+0.9%
Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · APP ST 8-10 NC ST · NC ST 93% → 94%
03
Rebecca RingAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Rebecca Ring
Set 1 · APP ST 6-7 NC ST · APP ST 5% → 6%
04
Britni SilverKill+0.8%
Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · APP ST 9-12 NC ST · NC ST 94% → 95%
05
Brooke DohertyKill+0.7%
Kill by Brooke Doherty (set by Lexi Shondell)
Set 1 · APP ST 8-8 NC ST · APP ST 7% → 7%
06
Talia FrancomKill+0.7%
Kill by Talia Francom (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · APP ST 8-9 NC ST · NC ST 93% → 93%
07
Britni SilverKill+0.7%
Kill by Britni Silver (set by Raegan Richardson)
Set 1 · APP ST 0-2 NC ST · NC ST 94% → 95%
08
Rebecca RingKill+0.6%
Kill by Rebecca Ring (set by Elaisa Villar)
Set 1 · APP ST 7-8 NC ST · NC ST 93% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

App Stateaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Bella HutchensOH	3	10	6	24	.167	0	1	2	1	2	0	1	0.5	11.5
23Delanie GrevengoedOH	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Raegan RichardsonS	3	1	2	6	-.167	12	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
8Chelsea GilmoreMB	2	2	1	6	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
20Nevaeh HaysMB	2	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
2Brooke DohertyOH	2	1	4	15	-.200	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	1.5
4MeMe DavisL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0
14Amelia MancinoOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
0Charlotte ThompsonOH	2	3	4	13	-.077	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
3Lexi ShondellS	2	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
98Lou JohnsonMB	2	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Bella DaffornL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
24Iris WilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Molly TeagueOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Caroline FarthingL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	21	92	.011	19	2	5	31	6	1	6	4	41

NC Statehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
42Britni SilverOH	3	11	4	26	.269	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	11
23Jordan SmithOPP	3	8	1	12	.583	0	1	1	2	0	0	4	2	11
17Talia FrancomMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	2	1	0	1	6	4	8
22Eva LongS	3	4	1	7	.429	27	0	1	7	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
4Sophia GroomMB	3	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
7Kate KilpatrickL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
27Rebecca RingOH	3	10	4	22	.273	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
1Zuzanna MaciejewiczL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	2	0	11	0	0	0	0	2
31Elaisa VillarL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
3Clara VondranOH	2	2	0	3	.667	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
14Norah BuschMB	2	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Sa'Mya DorseyOPP	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	10	91	.363	34	6	7	42	2	1	16	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 APP ST · NC ST 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 4 APP STNC ST 6

Set 2

10-25

Longest run 1 APP STNC ST 8

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 APP STNC ST 5

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = App State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

App State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	29%2/7
2	55%6/11	14%1/7
3	50%6/12	14%1/7
4	60%6/10	0%0/6
5	24%4/17	33%3/9
6	33%3/9	43%3/7
All	42%31/73	23%10/43

NC State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	60%6/10
2	86%6/7	57%8/14
3	86%6/7	45%5/11
4	100%6/6	54%7/13
5	63%5/8	69%11/16
6	57%4/7	56%5/9
All	77%33/43	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

116 rallies

Rally log

#	APP ST-NC ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	APP ST	NC ST	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith	+0.5
2	0-2	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Raegan Richardson	+0.7
3	1-2	NC ST	APP ST	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.5
4	1-3	APP ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.4
5	1-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed		+0.6
6	1-5	NC ST	NC ST×3	Ace	NC ST server	aced Amelia Mancino	+0.5
7	2-5	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
8	2-6	APP ST	NC ST	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.3
9	3-6	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.3
10	3-7	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.3
11	4-7	NC ST	APP ST×4	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Lexi Shondell	+0.3
12	5-7	APP ST	APP ST×4	Attack err	Eva Long		+0.6
13	6-7	APP ST	APP ST×4	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.8
14	7-7	APP ST	APP ST×4	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+1.0
15	7-8	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Elaisa Villar	+0.6
16	8-8	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Lexi Shondell	+0.7
17	8-9	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.7
18	8-10	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.9
19	9-10	NC ST	APP ST	Attack err	Jordan Smith	blk Chelsea Gilmore, Brooke Doherty	+0.6
20	9-11	APP ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Raegan Richardson		+0.6
21	9-12	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.8
22	9-13	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+0.6
23	9-14	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Sophia Groom		+0.4
24	9-15	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Jordan Smith, Sophia Groom	+0.3
25	9-16	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver		+0.2
26	10-16	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
27	10-17	APP ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.1
28	10-18	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.1
29	10-19	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Britni Silver	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.0
30	11-19	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
31	12-19	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set MeMe Davis	+0.0
32	12-20	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long	set Nevaeh Hays	+0.0
33	12-21	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.0
34	13-21	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
35	13-22	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.0
36	13-23	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Charlotte Thompson		+0.0
37	14-23	NC ST	APP ST	Attack err	Rebecca Ring	blk Nevaeh Hays, Bella Hutchens	+0.0
38	14-24	APP ST	NC ST	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.0
39	14-25	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Charlotte Thompson	set Raegan Richardson	+0.4
2	1-1	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.4
3	1-2	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Britni Silver	+0.5
4	2-2	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.4
5	2-3	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.3
6	2-4	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Nevaeh Hays		+0.5
7	3-4	NC ST	APP ST	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Nevaeh Hays, Delanie Grevengoed	+0.3
8	3-5	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long		+0.3
9	3-6	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.4
10	4-6	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
11	4-7	APP ST	NC ST×8	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.3
12	4-8	NC ST	NC ST×8	Ace	NC ST server	aced Bella Hutchens	+0.3
13	4-9	NC ST	NC ST×8	Ace	NC ST server	aced Caroline Farthing	+0.3
14	4-10	NC ST	NC ST×8	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
15	4-11	NC ST	NC ST×8	Kill	Eva Long	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
16	4-12	NC ST	NC ST×8	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.1
17	4-13	NC ST	NC ST×8	Attack err	Charlotte Thompson		+0.1
18	4-14	NC ST	NC ST×8	Attack err	Charlotte Thompson	blk Eva Long, Talia Francom	+0.0
19	5-14	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Charlotte Thompson	set Nevaeh Hays	+0.0
20	5-15	APP ST	NC ST	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.0
21	5-16	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.0
22	6-16	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Charlotte Thompson	set MeMe Davis	+0.0
23	6-17	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.0
24	6-18	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Charlotte Thompson		+0.0
25	7-18	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.0
26	7-19	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.0
27	8-19	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
28	8-20	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.0
29	9-20	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
30	9-21	APP ST	NC ST	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.0
31	9-22	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+0.0
32	10-22	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Lexi Shondell	set Elaisa Villar	+0.0
33	10-23	APP ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Eva Long		+0.0
34	10-24	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.0
35	10-25	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.2
2	0-2	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed		+0.2
3	1-2	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
4	1-3	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.1
5	2-3	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set MeMe Davis	+0.2
6	2-4	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.1
7	2-5	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
8	3-5	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.1
9	3-6	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.1
10	4-6	NC ST	APP ST	Attack err	Rebecca Ring	blk Chelsea Gilmore	+0.1
11	4-7	APP ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.1
12	4-8	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Chelsea Gilmore	blk Talia Francom	+0.2
13	4-9	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Raegan Richardson		+0.1
14	5-9	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.1
15	6-9	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.1
16	6-10	APP ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.1
17	6-11	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Bella Hutchens	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+0.1
18	6-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom		+0.1
19	6-13	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.1
20	6-14	NC ST	NC ST×5	Ace	NC ST server	aced Brooke Doherty	+0.0
21	7-14	NC ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Eva Long	+0.0
22	8-14	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.0
23	9-14	APP ST	APP ST×3	Ace	APP ST server	aced Kate Kilpatrick	+0.1
24	9-15	APP ST	NC ST	Attack err	Bella Hutchens	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+0.1
25	10-15	NC ST	APP ST	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.0
26	11-15	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Chelsea Gilmore	+0.1
27	11-16	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.1
28	12-16	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+0.1
29	12-17	APP ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed		+0.1
30	12-18	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.1
31	12-19	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC ST server	aced Bella Hutchens	+0.0
32	12-20	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC ST server	aced Brooke Doherty	+0.0
33	13-20	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
34	13-21	APP ST	NC ST	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Eva Long, Norah Busch	+0.0
35	13-22	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.0
36	14-22	NC ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
37	14-23	APP ST	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.0
38	14-24	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+0.0
39	15-24	NC ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+0.0
40	16-24	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Raegan Richardson	set Eva Long	+0.0
41	17-24	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.0
42	17-25	APP ST	NC ST	Attack err	Bella Hutchens	blk Talia Francom, Rebecca Ring	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, App State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.