Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 25, 2026Watch on ACCNX

North Carolina def. NC State 3–1

North Carolina won at NC State 3-1 (28-26, 25-20, 23-25, 25-16) on Fri, Sep 25, 2026. North Carolina's Safi Hampton led with 16 kills, and Julia Bohlinger added 22 digs.

Data through · final Sep 25

Set1234Sets
UNC282523253
NC ST262025161

Win probability

NC State above 50 · North Carolina below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.4% NC STrally 188 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.4% to NC State — set 1, UNC 24-25 NC ST. Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long). NC ST win probability 23% → 31%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNC 78.7%21.3% NC ST

North Carolina wins

3-0
30.3%
3-1
29.8%
3-2
18.6%

NC State wins

3-0
3.5%
3-1
7.1%
3-2
10.6%
UNC break %
44.8% vs this opp
NC ST break %
38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jordan SmithKill+8.4%

    Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · UNC 24-25 NC ST · NC ST 23% → 31%

  2. 02

    Rebecca Ring stuffed by Jackie Taylor & Laynie Smith

    Set 1 · UNC 26-25 NC ST · UNC 75% → 82%

  3. 03

    Bridget Malone stuffed by Sophia Groom & Jordan Smith

    Set 1 · UNC 24-24 NC ST · NC ST 16% → 23%

  4. 04

    Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt)

    Set 1 · UNC 28-26 NC ST · UNC 82% → 89%

  5. 05
    Laynie SmithKill+6.1%

    Kill by Laynie Smith (set by Sienna Cozza)

    Set 1 · UNC 25-25 NC ST · UNC 69% → 75%

  6. 06
    Jordan SmithKill+5.3%

    Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · UNC 26-26 NC ST · NC ST 18% → 23%

  7. 07

    Kill by Bridget Malone (set by Sienna Cozza)

    Set 1 · UNC 27-26 NC ST · UNC 77% → 82%

  8. 08

    Kill by Lauren Schutter (set by Sienna Cozza)

    Set 1 · UNC 24-22 NC ST · UNC 81% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416238.36810113502117
411333.2420006008415
410637.1080004004212
45112.33300120010510
4319.22200020052.55.5
4001.0002320800002
49625.12000010010.59.5
4002.0001611700001
4001.0006122200001
4000–300800000
Team totals5419158.222494573503015101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416843.1860118202118
410421.2860002004212
46521.04801150031.58.5
45219.158001600427
43111.1824213100010.54.5
35517.000000100005
410540.12501112002112
4000–0111000001
4001.0007021800000
3000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5530173.14549511724016887

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UNC · NC ST 4

Set 1

28-26

Longest run 4 UNCNC ST 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 UNCNC ST 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 UNCNC ST 4

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 5 UNCNC ST 2

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%11/24
25%3/12
2
71%10/14
47%9/19
3
67%8/12
53%10/19
4
62%8/13
53%9/17
5
73%8/11
47%7/15
6
57%8/14
56%10/18
All
60%53/88
48%48/100

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
40%6/15
2
42%10/24
55%12/22
3
45%9/20
29%4/14
4
62%8/13
38%5/13
5
53%8/15
20%2/10
6
54%7/13
43%6/14
All
52%52/100
40%35/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#UNC-NC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UNCNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
20-2NC STNC ST×3KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+2.1
30-3NC STNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.2
41-3NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.4
52-3UNCUNCBad setEva Long+2.0
62-4UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+1.6
73-4NC STUNCAttack errRebecca Ring+1.4
83-5UNCNC STServe errNorth Carolina+1.6
94-5NC STUNCServe errNC State+1.5
105-5UNCUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.1
115-6UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.6
125-7NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.4
136-7NC STUNCServe errNC State+1.5
146-8UNCNC STServe errNorth Carolina+1.8
157-8NC STUNC×3KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.6
168-8UNCUNC×3KillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.3
179-8UNCUNC×3KillSafi Hampton+2.2
189-9UNCNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.6
1910-9NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
2011-9UNCUNCBlockedTalia Francomblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+2.1
2111-10UNCNC STKillRebecca Ringset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+1.5
2211-11NC STNC STKillSophia Groomset Sienna Cozza+2.4
2312-11NC STUNC×4KillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+1.7
2413-11UNCUNC×4AceNorth Carolinaaced Britni Silver+2.2
2514-11UNCUNC×4BlockedJordan Smithblk Jackie Taylor, Bridget Malone+2.0
2615-11UNCUNC×4KillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
2715-12UNCNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+1.0
2816-12NC STUNCBlockedRebecca Ringblk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith+1.1
2916-13UNCNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+1.0
3017-13NC STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
3117-14UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+1.0
3218-14NC STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
3319-14UNCUNCAttack errBritni Silver+1.2
3419-15UNCNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.6
3519-16NC STNC ST×4BlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Talia Francom, Britni Silver+1.3
3619-17NC STNC ST×4AceNC Stateaced Safi Hampton+1.9
3719-18NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+2.8
3820-18NC STUNC×3KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+2.3
3921-18UNCUNC×3Attack errBritni Silver+2.6
4022-18UNCUNC×3Attack errJordan Smith+1.7
4122-19UNCNC ST×4KillEva Long+0.7
4222-20NC STNC ST×4AceNC Stateaced Safi Hampton+1.8
4322-21NC STNC ST×4KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+3.1
4422-22NC STNC ST×4Attack errSafi Hampton+4.9
4523-22NC STUNCServe errNC State+4.2
4624-22UNCUNCKillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+5.1
4724-23UNCNC ST×3KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+2.0
4824-24NC STNC ST×3BlockedBridget Maloneblk Sophia Groom, Jordan Smith+7.2
4924-25NC STNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+8.4
5025-25NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+6.1
5126-25UNCUNCBlockedRebecca Ringblk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith+7.5
5226-26UNCNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+5.3
5327-26NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+5.3
5428-26UNCUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+6.5
Set 2
11-0NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Julia Bohlinger+0.9
22-0UNCUNCBlockedRebecca Ringblk Laynie Smith, Jackie Taylor+1.2
32-1UNCNC STBlockedBridget Maloneblk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom+0.9
42-2NC STNC STBlockedBridget Maloneblk Sophia Groom, Jordan Smith+1.4
53-2NC STUNC×3BlockedRebecca Ringblk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith+1.0
64-2UNCUNC×3AceNorth Carolinaaced Britni Silver+1.3
75-2UNCUNC×3KillChelsea Thorpeset Julia Bohlinger+1.2
85-3UNCNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.8
95-4NC STNC ST×3Bad setZoe Behrendt+1.3
105-5NC STNC ST×3Attack errJackie Taylor+1.5
116-5NC STUNC×4KillChelsea Thorpeset Chelsea Thorpe+1.1
127-5UNCUNC×4Attack errClara Vondran+1.4
138-5UNCUNC×4KillSafi Hamptonset Julia Bohlinger+1.3
149-5UNCUNC×4BlockedSophia Groomblk Jackie Taylor, Safi Hampton+1.1
159-6UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.7
1610-6NC STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.8
1710-7UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.7
1811-7NC STUNC×4Serve errNC State+0.8
1912-7UNCUNC×4AceNorth Carolina+0.9
2013-7UNCUNC×4BlockedBritni Silverblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+0.7
2114-7UNCUNC×4AceNorth Carolina+0.5
2214-8UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.3
2315-8NC STUNCServe errNC State+0.3
2415-9UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.2
2515-10NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.5
2616-10NC STUNCKillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+0.5
2716-11UNCNC STServe errNorth Carolina+0.3
2817-11NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+0.5
2917-12UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.3
3018-12NC STUNC×3Attack errClara Vondran+0.4
3119-12UNCUNC×3Attack errSophia Groom+0.4
3220-12UNCUNC×3Attack errBritni Silver+0.2
3320-13UNCNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.1
3420-14NC STNC STAttack errSafi Hampton+0.2
3521-14NC STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+0.2
3621-15UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.1
3722-15NC STUNCServe errNC State+0.2
3823-15UNCUNCKillLaynie Smithset Safi Hampton+0.1
3923-16UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz·
4023-17NC STNC STAttack errLaynie Smith+0.1
4124-17NC STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Carly Markham+0.1
4224-18UNCNC ST×3KillTalia Francomset Eva Long·
4324-19NC STNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long·
4424-20NC STNC ST×3BlockedLaynie Smithblk Talia Francom, Clara Vondran+0.1
4525-20NC STUNCBlockedJordan Smithblk Bridget Malone, Lauren Schutter+0.2
Set 3
10-1UNCNC STKillClara Vondranset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.5
20-2NC STNC STAttack errLaynie Smith+0.8
31-2NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+0.5
42-2UNCUNCBlockedJordan Smithblk Bridget Malone, Jackie Taylor+0.7
52-3UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.6
63-3NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.5
74-3UNCUNCAttack errClara Vondran+0.7
84-4UNCNC STKillEva Long+0.5
94-5NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Safi Hampton+0.8
105-5NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt+0.6
115-6UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.6
126-6NC STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.6
137-6UNCUNCAttack errBritni Silver+0.8
147-7UNCNC STAttack errChelsea Thorpe+0.6
158-7NC STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+0.6
168-8UNCNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.6
179-8NC STUNCServe errNC State+0.6
1810-8UNCUNCKillLaynie Smithset Julia Bohlinger+0.8
1910-9UNCNC ST×4KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.6
2010-10NC STNC ST×4Bad setLauren Schutter+0.9
2110-11NC STNC ST×4Attack errBridget Malone+1.0
2210-12NC STNC ST×4Attack errLauren Schutter+1.1
2311-12NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.7
2411-13UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.8
2512-13NC STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Sienna Cozza+0.7
2612-14UNCNC STKillEva Long+0.9
2712-15NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.2
2813-15NC STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+0.7
2913-16UNCNC STBlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Britni Silver, Sophia Groom+0.9
3013-17NC STNC STKillTalia Francom+1.1
3114-17NC STUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.6
3215-17UNCUNCKillSafi Hampton+1.1
3315-18UNCNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.0
3416-18NC STUNC×3Serve errNC State+0.8
3517-18UNCUNC×3Attack errTalia Francom+1.3
3618-18UNCUNC×3Attack errEva Long+1.4
3718-19UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
3819-19NC STUNCKillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+1.1
3919-20UNCNC STAttack errEva Long+1.3
4019-21NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.8
4120-21NC STUNCBlockedClara Vondranblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+1.0
4221-21UNCUNCBlockedJordan Smithblk Bridget Malone, Jackie Taylor+1.8
4321-22UNCNC ST×3Serve errNorth Carolina+1.6
4421-23NC STNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+2.3
4521-24NC STNC ST×3BlockedBridget Maloneblk Sophia Groom, Eva Long+1.8
4622-24NC STUNCServe errNC State+0.5
4723-24UNCUNCBlockedClara Vondranblk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe+1.5
4823-25UNCNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+2.8
Set 4
11-0NC STUNCServe errNC State+1.5
21-1UNCNC STAttack errChelsea Thorpe+1.6
32-1NC STUNC×5KillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
43-1UNCUNC×5KillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.0
54-1UNCUNC×5KillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.8
65-1UNCUNC×5KillSafi Hamptonset Carly Markham+1.6
76-1UNCUNC×5Bad setEva Long+1.3
86-2UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.9
97-2NC STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Carly Markham+0.9
107-3UNCNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.9
117-4NC STNC STAttack errBridget Malone+1.5
128-4NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+1.2
138-5UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
149-5NC STUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.2
159-6UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
169-7NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Safi Hampton+1.9
1710-7NC STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
1810-8UNCNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.4
1911-8NC STUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Julia Bohlinger+1.5
2012-8UNCUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+1.8
2112-9UNCNC STAttack errChelsea Thorpe+1.2
2212-10NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Safi Hampton+2.1
2313-10NC STUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Julia Bohlinger+1.6
2414-10UNCUNCBlockedSophia Groomblk Safi Hampton, Lauren Schutter+1.9
2514-11UNCNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.2
2615-11NC STUNC×4KillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.4
2716-11UNCUNC×4Attack errSophia Groom+1.5
2817-11UNCUNC×4KillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+1.0
2918-11UNCUNC×4Attack errBritni Silver+0.6
3018-12UNCNC STServe errNorth Carolina+0.3
3118-13NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.7
3219-13NC STUNC×5KillBridget Maloneset Sienna Cozza+0.7
3320-13UNCUNC×5Attack errBritni Silver+0.5
3421-13UNCUNC×5BlockedBritni Silverblk Laynie Smith, Jackie Taylor+0.3
3522-13UNCUNC×5KillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+0.1
3623-13UNCUNC×5KillLaynie Smith·
3723-14UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long·
3824-14NC STUNCServe errNC State·
3924-15UNCNC STKillBritni Silverset Zoe Behrendt·
4024-16NC STNC STBlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom·
4125-16NC STUNCKillBridget Maloneset Zoe Behrendt·

Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).