Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ACCNX

California def. NC State 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: California 64.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 8:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

California beat visiting NC State 3-1 (25-14, 25-22, 20-25, 26-24) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. California's Abby Zimmerman led with 18 kills, and Anna Flores added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
NC ST142225241
CAL252520263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Anna Flores set 52 assists as California outlasted NC State.

The match turned twice. Numbers are California's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. California went in as RallyIQ's 64% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · NC State 7–7 California

    From 7–7, California scored 6 straight to lead 13–7.

    California 82% → 97%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · NC State 21–24 California

    3 straight NC State points erased a 21–24 deficit: 24–24.

    California 98% → 81%

California above 50NC State belowMax swing 11.4%

NC StateCalifornia

Sideout %
NC State 61.1·California 68.6
Break %
NC State 31.4·California 38.9
Hitting
NC State .153·California .234
Longest run
NC State 5·California 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

California above 50 · NC State below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.4% NC STrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.4% to NC State — set 4, NC ST 24-24 CAL. Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long). CAL win probability 93% → 81%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NC ST 36.9%63.1% CAL

NC State wins

3-0
7.7%
3-1
13.3%
3-2
15.8%

California wins

3-0
18.9%
3-1
24.2%
3-2
20.0%
NC ST break %
39.1% vs this opp
CAL break %
41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Britni SilverKill+11.4%

    Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long)

    Set 4 · NC ST 24-24 CAL · NC ST 7% → 19%

  2. 02
    Britni SilverKill+10.9%

    Kill by Britni Silver (set by Britni Silver)

    Set 4 · NC ST 24-26 CAL · CAL 89% → 100%

  3. 03
    Cari BohmKill+7.8%

    Kill by Cari Bohm (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 4 · NC ST 24-25 CAL · CAL 81% → 89%

  4. 04
    Grace AgolliAttack error+4.4%

    Attack error by Grace Agolli

    Set 4 · NC ST 23-24 CAL · NC ST 3% → 7%

  5. 05
    Britni SilverAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Britni Silver

    Set 2 · NC ST 22-24 CAL · CAL 85% → 89%

  6. 06
    Eva LongKill+3.6%

    Kill by Eva Long (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 2 · NC ST 22-23 CAL · NC ST 11% → 15%

  7. 07
    Clara VondranAttack error+3.3%

    Attack error by Clara Vondran

    Set 4 · NC ST 7-9 CAL · CAL 84% → 87%

  8. 08
    Ashley LiKill+3.3%

    Kill by Ashley Li (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 4 · NC ST 5-6 CAL · CAL 81% → 84%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417547.25500042031.518.5
45318.111000001649
43010.3003800150010.53.5
4000–3311520003
4011-1.000101900000
2016-.167000300000
49641.0730009002110
47421.143002500007
4002.000000600000
2408.500001300004
2013-.333000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4521157.1534235695112785
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418643.27951417002120
415022.6820101004218
49423.21700000132.511.5
48625.080003300008
44115.20052121900216
4000–000110000
410839.05102181031.513.5
14Elise LauL/DS
4000–001400000
4000–0001100000
4000–3001210000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6425167.23460511763114896

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NC ST · CAL 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 NC STCAL 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 NC STCAL 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 NC STCAL 3

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 5 NC STCAL 6

Bars above the line = California leads, below = NC State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
0%0/9
2
61%11/18
39%7/18
3
69%11/16
15%2/13
4
67%10/15
50%11/22
5
53%8/15
36%5/14
6
70%7/10
20%2/10
All
61%58/95
31%27/86

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
79%11/14
31%4/13
2
69%11/16
54%13/24
3
73%11/15
27%4/15
4
48%10/21
39%7/18
5
69%9/13
40%6/15
6
100%7/7
30%3/10
All
69%59/86
39%37/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#NC ST-CALSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.4
20-2CALCALAttack errBritni Silver+2.3
31-2CALNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.5
41-3NC STCAL×6KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.6
51-4CALCAL×6BlockedBritni Silverblk Grace Agolli, Sawyer Thomsen+2.2
61-5CALCAL×6KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
71-6CALCAL×6Attack errJordan Smith+1.7
81-7CALCAL×6KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.4
91-8CALCAL×6KillSawyer Thomsen+1.1
102-8CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.6
112-9NC STCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.7
122-10CALCAL×3BlockedTalia Francomblk Cari Bohm+0.8
132-11CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.6
143-11CALNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.3
153-12NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.4
164-12CALNC STServe errAbby Zimmerman+0.3
174-13NC STCAL×5KillGrace Agolliset Abby Zimmerman+0.3
184-14CALCAL×5KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.3
194-15CALCAL×5KillCari Bohm+0.2
204-16CALCAL×5AceGrace Agolliaced Britni Silver+0.1
214-17CALCAL×5AceGrace Agolliaced Britni Silver·
225-17CALNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long·
235-18NC STCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores·
246-18CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long·
256-19NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores·
267-19CALNC STServe errAnna Flores·
278-19NC STNC STBlockedAshley Liblk Talia Francom, Britni Silver·
288-20NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores·
299-20CALNC STServe errAshley Li·
309-21NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores·
3110-21CALNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long·
3211-21NC STNC ST×3Attack errCari Bohm·
3312-21NC STNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long·
3412-22NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores·
3513-22CALNC STServe errAbby Zimmerman·
3613-23NC STCALServe errJordan Smith·
3714-23CALNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long·
3814-24NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores·
3914-25CALCALAttack errElaisa Villar·
Set 2
10-1NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.4
20-2CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+2.0
31-2CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.3
41-3NC STCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.4
52-3CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
62-4NC STCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.4
72-5CALCAL×3Attack errClara Vondran+1.9
82-6CALCAL×3BlockedClara Vondranblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+1.7
93-6CALNC STAttack errGrace Agolli+1.1
103-7NC STCALBlockedSophia Groomblk Cari Bohm, Grace Agolli+1.2
114-7CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
124-8NC STCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+1.2
135-8CALNC STAttack errAshley Li+1.1
145-9NC STCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+1.2
155-10CALCALBlockedJordan Smithblk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+1.5
166-10CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.9
176-11NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
187-11CALNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.9
197-12NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
207-13CALCALKillClara Vondranset Anna Flores+1.2
218-13CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.6
228-14NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.8
239-14CALNC ST×4KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.6
2410-14NC STNC ST×4Attack errGrace Agolli+1.2
2511-14NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.7
2612-14NC STNC ST×4KillEva Longset Anna Flores+2.1
2712-15NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.7
2813-15CALNC STAttack errAnna Flores+1.5
2913-16NC STCALServe errKate Kilpatrick+1.7
3014-16CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.5
3114-17NC STCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.8
3215-17CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.5
3315-18NC STCAL×3Attack errTalia Francom+1.9
3415-19CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+2.2
3515-20CALCAL×3BlockedJordan Smithblk Grace Agolli, Sawyer Thomsen+1.5
3616-20CALNC STBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+0.6
3716-21NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
3817-21CALNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.5
3917-22NC STCALServe errJordan Smith+0.9
4018-22CALNC ST×3Bad setAnna Flores+0.4
4119-22NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.2
4220-22NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.1
4320-23NC STCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+2.3
4421-23CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Kate Kilpatrick+1.3
4522-23NC STNC STKillEva Longset Anna Flores+3.6
4622-24NC STCALAttack errBritni Silver+4.0
4722-25CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+3.0
Set 3
11-0CALNC ST×3Attack errAshley Li+0.9
22-0NC STNC ST×3AceKate Kilpatrickaced Francesca Popescu+1.3
33-0NC STNC ST×3Attack errAshley Li+1.3
43-1NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.8
54-1CALNC STServe errAshley Li+0.9
64-2NC STCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.8
75-2CALNC STKillEva Longset Elaisa Villar+0.9
86-2NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.3
96-3NC STCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.8
106-4CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Sophia Johnson+1.2
116-5CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+1.3
127-5CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.0
138-5NC STNC STAttack errCari Bohm+1.4
148-6NC STCALAttack errBritni Silver+0.9
158-7CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.4
169-7CALNC ST×3Serve errGrace Agolli+1.0
1710-7NC STNC ST×3BlockedCari Bohmblk Talia Francom, Britni Silver+1.5
1811-7NC STNC ST×3KillTalia Francom+1.4
1911-8NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.8
2012-8CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.0
2112-9NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.8
2213-9CALNC STBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+1.0
2313-10NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.8
2414-10CALNC STServe errAshley Li+1.0
2515-10NC STNC STAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.3
2615-11NC STCALServe errElaisa Villar+0.6
2716-11CALNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.9
2816-12NC STCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.6
2917-12CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.9
3017-13NC STCALServe errNorah Busch+0.6
3118-13CALNC STBlockedAshley Liblk Talia Francom, Eva Long+0.9
3218-14NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.6
3319-14CALNC STBlockedAshley Liblk Britni Silver, Talia Francom+0.8
3419-15NC STCALAttack errJordan Smith+0.5
3520-15CALNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.8
3620-16NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.5
3721-16CALNC STAttack errGrace Agolli+0.8
3821-17NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.4
3922-17CALNC STAttack errGrace Agolli+0.7
4022-18NC STCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.3
4122-19CALCAL×3AceAbby Zimmermanaced Kate Kilpatrick+0.9
4222-20CALCAL×3BlockedBritni Silverblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+1.5
4323-20CALNC ST×3KillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.6
4424-20NC STNC ST×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+1.3
4525-20NC STNC ST×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+0.4
Set 4
10-1NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
21-1CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+2.0
31-2NC STCALBad setZuzanna Maciejewicz+2.0
42-2CALNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+2.0
52-3NC STCALAttack errClara Vondran+2.0
63-3CALNC STServe errAbby Zimmerman+2.1
74-3NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Kate Kilpatrick+3.3
84-4NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.1
95-4CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.3
105-5NC STCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.2
115-6CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+3.3
126-6CALNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.3
136-7NC STCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.3
147-7CALNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+2.3
157-8NC STCAL×6KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.3
167-9CALCAL×6Attack errClara Vondran+3.3
177-10CALCAL×6BlockedTalia Francomblk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+3.0
187-11CALCAL×6Attack errClara Vondran+2.7
197-12CALCAL×6KillGrace Agolliset Sophia Johnson+2.2
207-13CALCAL×6Attack errRebecca Ring+1.7
218-13CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.9
228-14NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.1
238-15CALCALAceSawyer Thomsen+1.2
249-15CALNC STAttack errGrace Agolli+0.6
259-16NC STCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.8
269-17CALCALAttack errClara Vondran+0.7
2710-17CALNC STServe errAbby Zimmerman+0.3
2810-18NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.4
2911-18CALNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.2
3012-18NC STNC STBlockedCari Bohmblk Talia Francom+0.6
3112-19NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.6
3213-19CALNC STServe errElise Lau+0.4
3313-20NC STCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+0.6
3413-21CALCALAceAnna Floresaced Kate Kilpatrick+0.4
3514-21CALNC STServe errAnna Flores+0.1
3614-22NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.2
3715-22CALNC ST×5KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.1
3816-22NC STNC ST×5AceKate Kilpatrickaced Sophia Johnson+0.2
3917-22NC STNC ST×5Attack errAbby Zimmerman+0.4
4018-22NC STNC ST×5AceKate Kilpatrickaced Grace Agolli+0.9
4119-22NC STNC ST×5KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.6
4219-23NC STCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
4320-23CALNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.8
4421-23NC STNC STAttack errGrace Agolli+2.6
4521-24NC STCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.2
4622-24CALNC ST×3Attack errGrace Agolli+1.2
4723-24NC STNC ST×3Attack errGrace Agolli+4.4
4824-24NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+11.4
4924-25NC STCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+7.8
5024-26CALCALKillBritni Silverset Britni Silver+10.9

Score shown after each rally, NC State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).