Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 18, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Stanford def. NC State 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Stanford 88.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Stanford beat visiting NC State 3-1 (19-25, 25-11, 25-21, 25-19) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. Julia Blyashov led Stanford with 21 kills; NC State's Britni Silver had a match-high 23.

Data through · final Oct 18

Set1234Sets
NC ST251121191
STAN192525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

A 9–0 run in the second set broke it open for Stanford.

Win probability never moved more than 3.4 points on one rally; NC State topped out at 28% in Set 1. Stanford went in as RallyIQ's 89% pick.

NC StateStanford
  • Break %+12.4 pts
    33.846.2

    On serve: 43/93 against 26/77 (NC State sideout 53.8%).

  • Hitting+.156
    .221.377

    55 K / 9 E against 53 K / 22 E.

  • Longest run+4
    59

    9 straight Stanford points in the second set stretched a 16–11 lead to 25–11. Final score of the set: 25–11.

Stanford above 50NC State belowMax swing 3.4%

NC StateStanford

Aces
NC State 5·Stanford 3
Serve err
NC State 13·Stanford 9
Blocks
NC State 4·Stanford 80 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 14 BA
Digs
NC State 44·Stanford 49

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Stanford above 50 · NC State below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.4% NC STrally 170 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.4% to NC State — set 3, NC ST 12-11 STAN. Kill by Clara Vondran (set by Eva Long). STAN win probability 81% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NC ST 12.8%87.2% STAN

NC State wins

3-0
1.8%
3-1
4.0%
3-2
7.0%

Stanford wins

3-0
40.0%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.6%
NC ST break %
37.9% vs this opp
STAN break %
46.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Clara VondranKill+3.4%

    Kill by Clara Vondran (set by Eva Long)

    Set 3 · NC ST 12-11 STAN · NC ST 19% → 22%

  2. 02

    Kill by Julia Blyashov (set by Logan Parks)

    Set 3 · NC ST 12-13 STAN · STAN 80% → 83%

  3. 03
    Norah BuschKill+2.8%

    Kill by Norah Busch (set by Eva Long)

    Set 3 · NC ST 5-3 STAN · NC ST 20% → 22%

  4. 04
    Clara VondranAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Clara Vondran

    Set 3 · NC ST 12-14 STAN · STAN 83% → 86%

  5. 05

    Kill by Julia Blyashov (set by Logan Parks)

    Set 3 · NC ST 6-6 STAN · STAN 79% → 82%

  6. 06
    Kaci DemariaAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Kaci Demaria

    Set 3 · NC ST 4-3 STAN · NC ST 17% → 20%

  7. 07

    Kill by Julia Blyashov (set by Malyssa Cawa)

    Set 3 · NC ST 6-7 STAN · STAN 82% → 84%

  8. 08
    Lizzy AndrewBlock+2.3%

    Eva Long stuffed by Lizzy Andrew

    Set 3 · NC ST 12-12 STAN · STAN 78% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4231055.23621292010.524.5
47014.500003200218
44211.182000000215
44415.000430040010.54.5
4000–414800001
4000–000410000
48325.20010160010.58.5
45114.28600020010.55.5
4000–133900003
1102.500000000001
11011.000000000001
1023-.667000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5322140.2215151344308476
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421244.432102121031.522.5
411122.45500160153.514.5
410013.7690000002111
43212.0830021000214
4104.250421220010.52.5
4000–211610001
4000–5111210001
36319.15800002010.56.5
2306.500100100003
1012-.500000000000
Team totals559122.3775139495114894

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NC ST · STAN 9

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 3 NC STSTAN 4

Set 2

11-25

Longest run 3 NC STSTAN 9

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 NC STSTAN 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 5 NC STSTAN 4

Bars above the line = Stanford leads, below = NC State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
77%10/13
44%7/16
2
48%10/21
29%4/14
3
35%9/26
38%6/16
4
47%7/15
20%2/10
5
78%7/9
42%5/12
6
78%7/9
22%2/9
All
54%50/93
34%26/77

Stanford

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
25%3/12
2
63%10/16
33%5/15
3
82%9/11
58%14/24
4
78%7/9
68%15/22
5
70%7/10
42%5/12
6
64%7/11
13%1/8
All
66%51/77
46%43/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

170 rallies

#NC ST-STANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STANSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Spencer Etzler+1.1
21-1STANNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.8
32-1NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Talia Francom+1.3
43-1NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Elaisa Villar+1.5
53-2NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Spencer Etzler+1.0
63-3STANSTANBad setEva Long+1.3
74-3STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Elaisa Villar+1.0
85-3NC STNC STBlockedJordyn Harveyblk Talia Francom, Britni Silver+1.6
95-4NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.0
106-4STANNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.2
116-5NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+1.0
127-5STANNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.2
138-5NC STNC STAceKate Kilpatrickaced Kaci Demaria+1.8
148-6NC STSTANKillKaci Demariaset Julia Blyashov+1.1
159-6STANNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.4
169-7NC STSTANServe errElaisa Villar+1.1
1710-7STANNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.4
1810-8NC STSTANKillKaci Demariaset Logan Parks+1.2
1911-8STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.5
2011-9NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.2
2112-9STANNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.5
2213-9NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.1
2313-10NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.2
2414-10STANNC STServe errLogan Parks+1.6
2515-10NC STNC STBlockedJordyn Harveyblk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+2.0
2615-11NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+1.1
2716-11STANNC STServe errJulia Blyashov+1.5
2817-11NC STNC STAttack errKaci Demaria+1.8
2917-12NC STSTANServe errKate Kilpatrick+0.8
3018-12STANNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.3
3118-13NC STSTANAttack errBritni Silver+0.7
3219-13STANNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.2
3320-13NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.2
3421-13NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Elaisa Villar+0.7
3521-14NC STSTANKillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+0.2
3622-14STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.4
3722-15NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+0.1
3823-15STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Kate Kilpatrick+0.3
3923-16NC STSTAN×4KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+0.1
4023-17STANSTAN×4KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+0.2
4123-18STANSTAN×4KillElla Andrews+0.3
4223-19STANSTAN×4BlockedTalia Francomblk Jordyn Harvey, Ella Andrews+0.6
4324-19STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.0
4425-19NC STNC STAceBritni Silveraced Spencer Etzler+0.4
Set 2
10-1NC STSTANAttack errBritni Silver+1.5
20-2STANSTANBlockedBritni Silverblk Jordyn Harvey, Lizzy Andrew+1.9
31-2STANNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.4
41-3NC STSTANAttack errEva Long+1.4
51-4STANSTANKillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+1.7
62-4STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.2
72-5NC STSTANKillKaci Demariaset Logan Parks+1.2
82-6STANSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.5
93-6STANNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+1.0
103-7NC STSTAN×3KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+1.0
113-8STANSTAN×3KillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+1.2
123-9STANSTAN×3Attack errClara Vondran+0.9
134-9STANNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.6
145-9NC STNC ST×3Attack errJulia Blyashov+1.1
156-9NC STNC ST×3AceKate Kilpatrickaced Malyssa Cawa+1.4
166-10NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Spencer Etzler+1.1
176-11STANSTANBlockedJordan Smithblk Julia Blyashov+1.3
187-11STANNC STServe errLogan Parks+0.8
197-12NC STSTANServe errElaisa Villar+0.9
208-12STANNC STServe errJulia Blyashov+0.8
219-12NC STNC STBlockedKaci Demariablk Norah Busch, Eva Long+1.5
229-13NC STSTANKillJordyn Harveyset Logan Parks+1.2
239-14STANSTANAceSpencer Etzleraced Britni Silver+1.3
2410-14STANNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.8
2510-15NC STSTANServe errNorah Busch+0.9
2610-16STANSTANBlockedTalia Francomblk Kaci Demaria, Lizzy Andrew+0.9
2711-16STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.5
2811-17NC STSTAN×9KillJordyn Harveyset Logan Parks+0.6
2911-18STANSTAN×9KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+0.5
3011-19STANSTAN×9KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+0.3
3111-20STANSTAN×9BlockedBritni Silverblk Julia Blyashov, Lizzy Andrew+0.1
3211-21STANSTAN×9Attack errSa'Mya Dorsey+0.1
3311-22STANSTAN×9KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks·
3411-23STANSTAN×9Attack errSa'Mya Dorsey·
3511-24STANSTAN×9AceMalyssa Cawaaced Britni Silver·
3611-25STANSTAN×9Attack errBritni Silver·
Set 3
11-0STANNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.7
21-1NC STSTAN×3KillKaci Demariaset Logan Parks+1.5
31-2STANSTAN×3KillKaci Demariaset Logan Parks+2.0
41-3STANSTAN×3KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+1.8
52-3STANNC ST×4Serve errJordyn Harvey+1.3
63-3NC STNC ST×4AceElaisa Villaraced Kaci Demaria+2.2
74-3NC STNC ST×4Attack errKaci Demaria+2.5
85-3NC STNC ST×4KillNorah Buschset Eva Long+2.8
95-4NC STSTANServe errElaisa Villar+1.8
106-4STANNC STKillEva Longset Britni Silver+2.2
116-5NC STSTAN×3Serve errClara Vondran+1.9
126-6STANSTAN×3KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+2.6
136-7STANSTAN×3KillJulia Blyashovset Malyssa Cawa+2.4
147-7STANNC STKillEva Longset Malyssa Cawa+1.8
157-8NC STSTANServe errNorah Busch+1.7
168-8STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.9
178-9NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.8
189-9STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.0
199-10NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+1.9
2010-10STANNC STServe errSpencer Etzler+2.1
2110-11NC STSTANKillKaci Demariaset Spencer Etzler+1.9
2211-11STANNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+2.1
2312-11NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+3.4
2412-12NC STSTAN×4BlockedEva Longblk Lizzy Andrew+2.3
2512-13STANSTAN×4KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+3.1
2612-14STANSTAN×4Attack errClara Vondran+2.7
2712-15STANSTAN×4KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+2.3
2813-15STANNC STAttack errJulia Blyashov+1.5
2913-16NC STSTANAttack errBritni Silver+1.6
3013-17STANSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.8
3114-17STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
3214-18NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.3
3314-19STANSTANAceLogan Parksaced Zuzanna Maciejewicz+1.2
3415-19STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.6
3515-20NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+0.8
3616-20STANNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.6
3716-21NC STSTANServe errBritni Silver+0.8
3817-21STANNC ST×3KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.5
3918-21NC STNC ST×3BlockedLizzy Andrewblk Norah Busch, Jordan Smith+1.2
4019-21NC STNC ST×3AceKate Kilpatrickaced Julia Blyashov+2.2
4119-22NC STSTANKillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+2.2
4220-22STANNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.5
4320-23NC STSTANServe errElaisa Villar+2.2
4421-23STANNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.4
4521-24NC STSTANKillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+2.2
4621-25STANSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Malyssa Cawa+1.1
Set 4
10-1NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+1.0
21-1STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
31-2NC STSTAN×4KillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+1.1
41-3STANSTAN×4BlockedBritni Silverblk Lizzy Andrew, Logan Parks+1.4
51-4STANSTAN×4KillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+1.2
61-5STANSTAN×4Attack errEva Long+1.0
72-5STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.7
82-6NC STSTAN×3KillSimone Roslonset Logan Parks+0.7
92-7STANSTAN×3KillJulia Blyashovset Spencer Etzler+0.8
102-8STANSTAN×3BlockedBritni Silverblk Lizzy Andrew, Julia Blyashov+0.6
113-8STANNC STServe errMalyssa Cawa+0.4
123-9NC STSTANServe errBritni Silver+0.4
133-10STANSTANAttack errClara Vondran+0.5
144-10STANNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.3
155-10NC STNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.5
165-11NC STSTANServe errKate Kilpatrick+0.4
176-11STANNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.4
186-12NC STSTANKillJulia Blyashovset Logan Parks+0.4
197-12STANNC STKillEva Longset Clara Vondran+0.4
207-13NC STSTANKillJordyn Harveyset Logan Parks+0.4
218-13STANNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.4
228-14NC STSTAN×4Serve errNorah Busch+0.4
238-15STANSTAN×4KillSimone Roslonset Logan Parks+0.4
248-16STANSTAN×4KillLogan Parksset Simone Roslon+0.3
258-17STANSTAN×4Attack errBritni Silver+0.1
269-17STANNC STServe errJordyn Harvey+0.1
279-18NC STSTANKillSimone Roslonset Logan Parks+0.1
2810-18STANNC STKillSophia Groomset Eva Long+0.1
2910-19NC STSTANKillLizzy Andrewset Logan Parks+0.1
3010-20STANSTANKillElla Andrews+0.1
3111-20STANNC STServe errLizzy Andrew·
3211-21NC STSTANServe errKate Kilpatrick·
3312-21STANNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Britni Silver·
3413-21NC STNC ST×3KillEva Longset Elaisa Villar·
3514-21NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.1
3614-22NC STSTAN×3KillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+0.1
3714-23STANSTAN×3Attack errEva Long·
3814-24STANSTAN×3Attack errBritni Silver·
3915-24STANNC ST×5KillNorah Buschset Eva Long·
4016-24NC STNC ST×5Attack errSarah Hickman·
4117-24NC STNC ST×5KillBritni Silverset Eva Long·
4218-24NC STNC ST×5KillBritni Silverset Eva Long·
4319-24NC STNC ST×5KillNorah Buschset Eva Long·
4419-25NC STSTANKillElla Andrewsset Logan Parks+0.1

Score shown after each rally, NC State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).