Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

North Texas def. South Fla. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: South Fla. 66.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

North Texas beat visiting South Fla. 3-2 (20-25, 26-24, 25-19, 22-25, 15-11) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Jahniya Jackson and Lillian Croshaw led North Texas with 14 kills each; South Fla.'s Paula Tomasa had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set12345Sets
USF25241925112
NO TEX20262522153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: North Texas, a 34% pick, over South Fla.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are North Texas's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had South Fla. at 66% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · South Fla. 16–13 North Texas

    The bottom for North Texas, then 13 of the next 21 rallies and the set, 26–24.

    North Texas 13% → 37%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · South Fla. 15–17 North Texas

    Down 15–17, South Fla. scored 5 straight to lead 20–17.

    North Texas 80% → 51%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · South Fla. 10–12 North Texas

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to North Texas, enough to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    North Texas 80% → >99%

North Texas above 50South Fla. belowMax swing 10.7%

South Fla.North Texas

Sideout %
South Fla. 57.9·North Texas 60.0
Break %
South Fla. 40.0·North Texas 42.1
Hitting
South Fla. .142·North Texas .153
Longest run
South Fla. 5·North Texas 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

North Texas above 50 · South Fla. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+10.7% USFrally 212 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.7% to South Fla. — set 4, USF 24-22 NO TEX. Kill by Paula Tomasa (set by Nina Jioshvili-Ravva). NO TEX win probability 59% → 48%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

USF 58.6%41.4% NO TEX

South Fla. wins

3-0
16.5%
3-1
22.3%
3-2
19.8%

North Texas wins

3-0
9.2%
3-1
15.2%
3-2
17.0%
USF break %
42.3% vs this opp
NO TEX break %
40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paula TomasaKill+10.7%

    Kill by Paula Tomasa (set by Nina Jioshvili-Ravva)

    Set 4 · USF 24-22 NO TEX · USF 41% → 52%

  2. 02
    Addy BrusAttack error+9.9%

    Attack error by Addy Brus

    Set 5 · USF 10-13 NO TEX · NO TEX 80% → 90%

  3. 03

    Kill by Lillian Croshaw (set by Dakota Mitchell)

    Set 4 · USF 22-22 NO TEX · NO TEX 58% → 67%

  4. 04

    Kill by Lillian Croshaw (set by Sidney Soria)

    Set 5 · USF 9-12 NO TEX · NO TEX 76% → 86%

  5. 05
    Paula TomasaAttack error+9.2%

    Attack error by Paula Tomasa

    Set 5 · USF 0-2 NO TEX · NO TEX 50% → 59%

  6. 06
    Ryann VikKill+9.0%

    Kill by Ryann Vik (set by Olivia Branum)

    Set 5 · USF 8-11 NO TEX · NO TEX 74% → 83%

  7. 07

    Kill by Jahniya Jackson (set by Sidney Soria)

    Set 5 · USF 0-3 NO TEX · NO TEX 59% → 68%

  8. 08
    Addy BrusAttack error+8.9%

    Attack error by Addy Brus

    Set 2 · USF 24-26 NO TEX · NO TEX 28% → 37%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516846.17401170052.519.5
513336.2780003008417
58516.188103201116.514.5
56527.037002420006
5114.00042111200424
3448.00000000111.55.5
5000–1322610003
5000–112900001
3317.28600000052.55.5
31311-.182101200001
2000–000000000
1000–100000000
Team totals5230155.1424761265423419104
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514857.10520050132.516.5
514637.2160001000014
510423.2610000004212
58116.4381135002110
5011-1.0002021010000
5000–26001500000
58624.0830204102111
54315.06710010010.54.5
5000–1915800001
5000–4031310000
2023-.667000000000
1000–001000000
Team totals5831176.153554146261127108

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 USF · NO TEX 5

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 5 USFNO TEX 2

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 3 USFNO TEX 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 USFNO TEX 5

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 5 USFNO TEX 5

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 3 USFNO TEX 3

Bars above the line = North Texas leads, below = South Fla. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Fla.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
43%9/21
2
48%11/23
50%11/22
3
59%10/17
27%4/15
4
63%10/16
41%7/17
5
69%9/13
44%8/18
6
60%9/15
25%3/12
All
58%62/107
40%42/105

North Texas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
45%9/20
2
58%11/19
43%9/21
3
61%11/18
50%11/22
4
53%10/19
29%4/14
5
69%9/13
40%6/15
6
69%9/13
40%6/15
All
60%63/105
42%45/107

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

212 rallies

#USF-NO TEXSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0USFUSFAceSouth Fla.+2.2
21-1USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Jahniya Jackson+1.6
32-1NO TEXUSF×5KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
43-1USFUSF×5Attack errAddison Achilles+2.2
54-1USFUSF×5KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.0
65-1USFUSF×5Attack errLillian Croshaw+1.8
76-1USFUSF×5Attack errJahniya Jackson+1.6
86-2USFNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+1.0
97-2NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.1
108-2USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.3
118-3USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Jahniya Jackson+0.8
129-3NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
1310-3USFUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Ryelle Rondo+1.0
1410-4USFNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Olivia Branum+0.6
1510-5NO TEXNO TEXAttack errIyanna Garvin+1.1
1611-5NO TEXUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
1712-5USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.0
1812-6USFNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Olivia Branum+0.6
1912-7NO TEXNO TEXAttack errPaula Tomasa+1.1
2013-7NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
2114-7USFUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.0
2214-8USFNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+0.5
2314-9NO TEXNO TEXBlockedIyanna Garvinblk Jahniya Jackson+1.0
2415-9NO TEXUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
2515-10USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+0.7
2616-10NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
2716-11USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+0.7
2816-12NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texas+1.3
2917-12NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+1.2
3018-12USFUSFBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.2
3118-13USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+0.6
3219-13NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.8
3319-14USFNO TEXBlockedAddy Brusblk Jocelyn Jourdan, Addison Achilles+0.5
3420-14NO TEXUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.8
3520-15USFNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+0.5
3620-16NO TEXNO TEXAttack errAddy Brus+1.0
3721-16NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.1
3821-17USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+0.7
3921-18NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Miya Thomas+1.5
4022-18NO TEXUSFBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Nina Jioshvili-Ravva, Iyanna Garvin+1.7
4122-19USFNO TEXAttack errPaula Tomasa+1.0
4222-20NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Addy Brus+2.4
4323-20NO TEXUSF×3Serve errNorth Texas+2.7
4424-20USFUSF×3BlockedLillian Croshawblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Laila Ivey+2.0
4525-20USFUSF×3BlockedLillian Croshawblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Laila Ivey+0.6
Set 2
11-0NO TEXUSFBlockedRyann Vikblk Nina Jioshvili-Ravva, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.4
21-1USFNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+1.4
32-1NO TEXUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.4
42-2USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+1.4
52-3NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+2.1
63-3NO TEXUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.5
74-3USFUSF×3Attack errAddison Achilles+2.1
85-3USFUSF×3Attack errLillian Croshaw+2.0
95-4USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+1.4
106-4NO TEXUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Amelia Wass de Czege+1.4
116-5USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+1.4
127-5NO TEXUSFKillNina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.5
137-6USFNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Olivia Branum+1.5
147-7NO TEXNO TEXKillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+2.2
158-7NO TEXUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
169-7USFUSF×3BlockedJocelyn Jourdanblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+2.2
1710-7USFUSF×3Attack errReagan Bedell+2.0
1810-8USFNO TEXKillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+1.3
1910-9NO TEXNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.2
2011-9NO TEXUSFKillLaila Iveyset Miya Thomas+1.7
2112-9USFUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.1
2212-10USFNO TEXKillRyann Vikset Sidney Soria+1.4
2313-10NO TEXUSFBlockedLillian Croshawblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.6
2413-11USFNO TEXAttack errPaula Tomasa+1.4
2514-11NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
2614-12USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+1.5
2715-12NO TEXUSFBlockedAlexa Hayesblk Iyanna Garvin+1.7
2815-13USFNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Olivia Branum+1.5
2916-13NO TEXUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
3016-14USFNO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Dakota Mitchell+1.5
3116-15NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errIyanna Garvin+2.6
3216-16NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errLaila Ivey+3.2
3317-16NO TEXUSFAttack errAlexa Hayes+2.4
3418-16USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Reagan Bedell+3.2
3518-17USFNO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+2.1
3618-18NO TEXNO TEX×3BlockedAmelia Wass de Czegeblk Ryann Vik, Reagan Bedell+3.5
3718-19NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errLaila Ivey+4.0
3819-19NO TEXUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.8
3919-20USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+3.2
4019-21NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Addy Brus+4.5
4120-21NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.6
4221-21USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+4.7
4321-22USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+4.0
4421-23NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+5.6
4522-23NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.8
4623-23USFUSFAttack errAddison Achilles+6.3
4723-24USFNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+6.0
4824-24NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+6.0
4924-25USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+6.0
5024-26NO TEXNO TEXAttack errAddy Brus+8.9
Set 3
11-0USFUSFBlockedLillian Croshawblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Laila Ivey+3.1
21-1USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+2.3
31-2NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Alessandra Romo+3.3
42-2NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+2.3
53-2USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Alessandra Romo+3.2
63-3USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+2.4
73-4NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jackson+3.5
84-4NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+2.4
94-5USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+2.6
105-5NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.5
115-6USFNO TEX×5KillJahniya Jacksonset Jocelyn Jourdan+2.7
125-7NO TEXNO TEX×5KillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+3.8
135-8NO TEXNO TEX×5KillReagan Bedellset Dakota Mitchell+3.8
145-9NO TEXNO TEX×5KillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+3.6
155-10NO TEXNO TEX×5Attack errIyanna Garvin+3.3
166-10NO TEXUSFAttack errReagan Bedell+1.9
176-11USFNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Jahniya Jackson+2.4
186-12NO TEXNO TEXKillRyann Vik+2.9
197-12NO TEXUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
207-13USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.1
217-14NO TEXNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Ryann Vik+2.3
228-14NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+1.1
239-14USFUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czege+2.1
249-15USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.1
2510-15NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Emelyn Stettin+1.5
2610-16USFNO TEX×4KillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+2.0
2710-17NO TEXNO TEX×4Attack errAmelia Wass de Czege+2.1
2810-18NO TEXNO TEX×4BlockedPaula Tomasablk Addison Achilles, Jahniya Jackson+1.4
2910-19NO TEXNO TEX×4KillJahniya Jacksonset Olivia Branum+0.8
3011-19NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+0.3
3111-20USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+0.5
3211-21NO TEXNO TEXAttack errAddy Brus+0.3
3312-21NO TEXUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.1
3412-22USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+0.2
3513-22NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas·
3614-22USFUSFBlockedReagan Bedellblk Anne Perez, Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.1
3714-23USFNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+0.2
3815-23NO TEXUSFKillAnne Perezset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva·
3915-24USFNO TEXBlockedPaula Tomasablk Ryann Vik, Reagan Bedell+0.1
4016-24NO TEXUSF×4KillAnne Perezset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva·
4117-24USFUSF×4AceSouth Fla.·
4218-24USFUSF×4KillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Alessandra Romo+0.1
4319-24USFUSF×4KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.2
4419-25USFNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+0.4
Set 4
11-0NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.6
22-0USFUSFBlockedReagan Bedellblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Paula Tomasa+3.5
32-1USFNO TEX×5KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.5
42-2NO TEXNO TEX×5Attack errAmelia Wass de Czege+3.8
52-3NO TEXNO TEX×5KillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+4.0
62-4NO TEXNO TEX×5Attack errAmelia Wass de Czege+4.2
72-5NO TEXNO TEX×5Attack errAddy Brus+4.2
83-5NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+2.7
93-6USFNO TEX×3KillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+3.1
103-7NO TEXNO TEX×3KillJahniya Jacksonset Alessandra Romo+4.1
113-8NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errAnne Perez+3.8
124-8NO TEXUSFAttack errJahniya Jackson+2.3
135-8USFUSFKillMora Pampin+3.7
145-9USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+3.1
155-10NO TEXNO TEXAttack errJahniya Jackson+3.9
166-10NO TEXUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.3
177-10USFUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.8
188-10USFUSF×3BlockedJocelyn Jourdanblk Laila Ivey, Anne Perez+4.2
198-11USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+3.5
209-11NO TEXUSF×3KillAnne Perezset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.1
2110-11USFUSF×3BlockedReagan Bedellblk Amelia Wass de Czege+4.7
2211-11USFUSF×3KillLaila Ivey+5.0
2311-12USFNO TEXAttack errLaila Ivey+3.8
2412-12NO TEXUSFBlockedJocelyn Jourdanblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+3.7
2512-13USFNO TEXKillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+4.0
2612-14NO TEXNO TEXAttack errLaila Ivey+5.7
2713-14NO TEXUSFBlockedReagan Bedellblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Paula Tomasa+3.7
2813-15USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+4.3
2914-15NO TEXUSFBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+3.9
3014-16USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+4.5
3115-16NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+4.0
3215-17USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+4.8
3316-17NO TEXUSF×5KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+4.2
3417-17USFUSF×5KillLaila Iveyset Mora Pampin+6.5
3518-17USFUSF×5BlockedAddison Achillesblk Laila Ivey, Anne Perez+6.8
3619-17USFUSF×5KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.4
3720-17USFUSF×5BlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Anne Perez, Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+5.4
3820-18USFNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+3.0
3921-18NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+4.0
4021-19USFNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Dakota Mitchell+3.0
4122-19NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+4.2
4222-20USFNO TEX×3Attack errAmelia Wass de Czege+2.8
4322-21NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errNina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.5
4422-22NO TEXNO TEX×3KillLillian Croshawset Dakota Mitchell+9.7
4523-22NO TEXUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+8.5
4624-22USFUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+10.7
4725-22USFUSF×3AceSouth Fla.+4.4
Set 5
10-1USFNO TEX×3KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+6.5
20-2NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errPaula Tomasa+9.2
30-3NO TEXNO TEX×3KillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+9.0
41-3NO TEXUSFAttack errJahniya Jackson+5.6
51-4USFNO TEXAttack errMora Pampin+6.8
61-5NO TEXNO TEXBlockedPaula Tomasablk Jahniya Jackson, Addison Achilles+8.5
72-5NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+4.9
83-5USFUSFBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Anne Perez, Paula Tomasa+8.2
93-6USFNO TEX×3KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+7.3
103-7NO TEXNO TEX×3BlockedPaula Tomasablk Jahniya Jackson, Addison Achilles+8.9
113-8NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errMora Pampin+7.2
124-8NO TEXUSF×3Serve errNorth Texas+3.5
135-8USFUSF×3AceSouth Fla.aced Dakota Mitchell+6.8
146-8USFUSF×3Attack errAlessandra Romo+8.7
156-9USFNO TEXAttack errMora Pampin+8.2
167-9NO TEXUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.3
177-10USFNO TEXServe errSouth Fla.+8.6
188-10NO TEXUSFServe errNorth Texas+6.3
198-11USFNO TEXKillRyann Vikset Olivia Branum+9.0
209-11NO TEXUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.3
219-12USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+9.5
2210-12NO TEXUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.0
2310-13USFNO TEXAttack errAddy Brus+9.9
2410-14NO TEXNO TEXBad setNina Jioshvili-Ravva+8.0
2511-14NO TEXUSFBad setJahniya Jackson+1.6
2611-15USFNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+4.1

Score shown after each rally, South Fla. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).