Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 11, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UTSA def. South Fla. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: South Fla. 61.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 11, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UTSA beat visiting South Fla. 3-2 (19-25, 25-20, 15-25, 25-18, 15-11) on Sun, Oct 11, 2026. Ally Tribe and Ledisi Kpea led UTSA with 9 kills each; South Fla.'s Addy Brus had a match-high 21.

Data through · final Oct 11

Set12345Sets
USF25202518112
UTSA19251525153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UTSA won from 14%.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UTSA's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. South Fla. went in at 62% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · South Fla. 17–18 UTSA

    Down 17–18, South Fla. scored 5 straight to lead 22–18.

    UTSA 44% → 25%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · South Fla. 6–4 UTSA

    From here UTSA won 21 of 33 rallies to take the set 25–18.

    UTSA 14% → 43%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · South Fla. 5–7 UTSA

    Up 7–5, UTSA scored 4 straight to make it 11–5.

    UTSA 70% → 97%

UTSA above 50South Fla. belowMax swing 10.3%

South Fla.UTSA

Sideout %
South Fla. 62.6·UTSA 62.6
Break %
South Fla. 37.4·UTSA 37.4
Hitting
South Fla. .175·UTSA .094
Longest run
South Fla. 5·UTSA 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UTSA above 50 · South Fla. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+10.3% UTSArally 198 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.3% to UTSA — set 5, USF 4-7 UTSA. Ace by Giada Obregon on Miya Thomas. UTSA win probability 65% → 76%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

USF 59.0%41.0% UTSA

South Fla. wins

3-0
16.7%
3-1
22.5%
3-2
19.8%

UTSA wins

3-0
9.1%
3-1
15.0%
3-2
16.9%
USF break %
41.8% vs this opp
UTSA break %
40.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Giada ObregonAce+10.3%

    Ace by Giada Obregon on Miya Thomas

    Set 5 · USF 4-7 UTSA · UTSA 65% → 76%

  2. 02
    Ledisi KpeaBlock+10.0%

    Iyanna Garvin stuffed by Ledisi Kpea

    Set 5 · USF 2-4 UTSA · UTSA 53% → 63%

  3. 03

    Kill by Isabella Arroyave (set by Megan Hawkins)

    Set 5 · USF 1-2 UTSA · UTSA 43% → 53%

  4. 04
    Paula TomasaAttack error+8.9%

    Attack error by Paula Tomasa

    Set 5 · USF 5-9 UTSA · UTSA 77% → 86%

  5. 05
    Valeria OrtizKill+7.5%

    Kill by Valeria Ortiz (set by Ally Tribe)

    Set 5 · USF 4-6 UTSA · UTSA 58% → 65%

  6. 06

    Kill by Makinsey Jones (set by Valeria Ortiz)

    Set 5 · USF 5-8 UTSA · UTSA 70% → 77%

  7. 07
    Addy BrusAttack error+7.2%

    Attack error by Addy Brus

    Set 5 · USF 3-5 UTSA · UTSA 57% → 64%

  8. 08

    Kill by Caroline Tredwell (set by Megan Hawkins)

    Set 5 · USF 2-3 UTSA · UTSA 47% → 53%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
521653.283002161031.522.5
512944.068215140052.515.5
57114.42900410094.511.5
59537.1080004004211
55316.125100202449
5215.2003604150010.52.5
5000–8121430001
5000–504810000
3011-1.000000000000
2000–100000000
1001.000000000000
Team totals5626171.175532217462261599
UTSAhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
59541.098211172132.512.5
59216.4380002022312
57829-.034010600219
55519.00010410153.58.5
56529.034000300006
5102.5001402900001
55419.053100200216
5205.40021101300003
5000–031600003
5000–3011800000
Team totals4429160.09442697724141199

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 USF · UTSA 6

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 USFUTSA 3

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 2 USFUTSA 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 5 USFUTSA 2

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 2 USFUTSA 6

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 2 USFUTSA 4

Bars above the line = UTSA leads, below = South Fla. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Fla.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
68%13/19
29%4/14
2
63%12/19
38%8/21
3
73%11/15
35%6/17
4
45%9/20
31%5/16
5
75%9/12
31%4/13
6
57%8/14
56%10/18
All
63%62/99
37%37/99

UTSA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
21%3/14
2
60%12/20
38%8/21
3
65%11/17
42%8/19
4
77%10/13
17%2/12
5
47%8/17
57%12/21
6
73%8/11
33%4/12
All
63%62/99
37%37/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#USF-UTSASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UTSAUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
21-1USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+1.7
32-1UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
42-2USFUTSA×3Bad setNina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
52-3UTSAUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+2.7
62-4UTSAUTSA×3Attack errPaula Tomasa+2.7
73-4UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.7
83-5USFUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+1.9
93-6UTSAUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+2.7
104-6UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
115-6USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Ally Tribe+2.7
125-7USFUTSAKillValeria Ortizset Makinsey Jones+2.0
135-8UTSAUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Alyssa Manitzas+2.9
146-8UTSAUSFAttack errLedisi Kpea+1.8
156-9USFUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+2.0
167-9UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.8
177-10USFUTSAKillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+2.1
188-10UTSAUSFKillLaila Iveyset Miya Thomas+1.8
198-11USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.1
208-12UTSAUTSABlockedPaula Tomasablk Caroline Tredwell, Isabella Arroyave+2.9
219-12UTSAUSFBlockedIsabella Arroyaveblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.6
229-13USFUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+2.0
2310-13UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
2411-13USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.9
2511-14USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.3
2612-14UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Ryelle Rondo+2.0
2713-14USFUSFAttack errIsabella Arroyave+3.4
2813-15USFUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+2.6
2914-15UTSAUSF×3BlockedMakinsey Jonesblk Iyanna Garvin, Addy Brus+2.3
3015-15USFUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.8
3116-15USFUSF×3Attack errLedisi Kpea+4.0
3216-16USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.7
3317-16UTSAUSFBlockedAlly Tribeblk Nina Jioshvili-Ravva, Iyanna Garvin+2.8
3417-17USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.9
3517-18UTSAUTSABlockedAmelia Wass de Czegeblk Ally Tribe+4.7
3618-18UTSAUSF×5KillLaila Iveyset Miya Thomas+3.1
3719-18USFUSF×5KillLaila Iveyset Miya Thomas+4.8
3820-18USFUSF×5BlockedCaroline Tredwellblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Paula Tomasa+4.6
3921-18USFUSF×5KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.8
4022-18USFUSF×5BlockedAlly Tribeblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+2.6
4122-19USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+1.0
4223-19UTSAUSF×3Attack errIsabella Arroyave+1.6
4324-19USFUSF×3KillAddy Brusset Ryelle Rondo+1.0
4425-19USFUSF×3BlockedIsabella Arroyaveblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+0.2
Set 2
11-0USFUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.2
21-1USFUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.5
31-2UTSAUTSA×3AceUTSA+2.3
41-3UTSAUTSA×3Attack errPaula Tomasa+2.4
52-3UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.5
63-3USFUSFBlockedMakinsey Jonesblk Iyanna Garvin, Addy Brus+2.3
73-4USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+1.7
84-4UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
94-5USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+1.7
105-5UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.6
115-6USFUTSAAttack errAddy Brus+1.7
125-7UTSAUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+2.6
136-7UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.7
146-8USFUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+1.8
157-8UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Miya Thomas+1.7
168-8USFUSFAttack errIsabella Arroyave+2.6
178-9USFUTSAAttack errLaila Ivey+1.9
189-9UTSAUSFBlockedIsabella Arroyaveblk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.8
199-10USFUTSA×3KillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+2.0
209-11UTSAUTSA×3KillAlly Tribeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.9
219-12UTSAUTSA×3AceUTSAaced Ryelle Rondo+2.8
2210-12UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
2311-12USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Ryelle Rondo+2.8
2411-13USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.1
2512-13UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.0
2612-14USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.2
2713-14UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.0
2813-15USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.3
2914-15UTSAUSFBlockedSydney Bryantblk Laila Ivey, Iyanna Garvin+2.1
3014-16USFUTSABlockedPaula Tomasablk Caroline Tredwell, Isabella Arroyave+2.4
3115-16UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.2
3215-17USFUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+2.6
3315-18UTSAUTSAAceUTSAaced Addy Brus+3.5
3416-18UTSAUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.9
3516-19USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.5
3617-19UTSAUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.9
3717-20USFUTSA×4KillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+2.6
3817-21UTSAUTSA×4BlockedPaula Tomasablk Ally Tribe, Caroline Tredwell+2.9
3917-22UTSAUTSA×4BlockedIyanna Garvinblk Caroline Tredwell+1.9
4017-23UTSAUTSA×4Attack errAddy Brus+0.9
4118-23UTSAUSFAttack errCaroline Tredwell+0.2
4219-23USFUSFAttack errAlly Tribe+0.6
4319-24USFUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Valeria Ortiz+0.8
4420-24UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Paula Tomasa+0.2
4520-25USFUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+0.5
Set 3
11-0UTSAUSFAttack errIsabella Arroyave+2.2
21-1USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.3
31-2UTSAUTSABad setNina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.5
42-2UTSAUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.3
53-2USFUSF×3KillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.5
64-2USFUSF×3BlockedMakinsey Jonesblk Addy Brus, Amelia Wass de Czege+3.3
74-3USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.2
85-3UTSAUSFAttack errAlly Tribe+2.3
96-3USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Ryelle Rondo+3.2
106-4USFUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+2.0
116-5UTSAUTSAAttack errPaula Tomasa+3.4
127-5UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+2.4
137-6USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.4
147-7UTSAUTSAAttack errAddy Brus+3.8
158-7UTSAUSF×5KillAddy Brusset Paula Tomasa+2.7
169-7USFUSF×5Attack errIsabella Arroyave+3.8
1710-7USFUSF×5BlockedCaroline Tredwellblk Iyanna Garvin+3.5
1811-7USFUSF×5Attack errSydney Bryant+3.1
1912-7USFUSF×5Attack errCaroline Tredwell+2.5
2012-8USFUTSAKillMegan Hawkinsset Ally Tribe+1.4
2112-9UTSAUTSAAttack errNina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.7
2213-9UTSAUSFKillNina Jioshvili-Ravvaset Miya Thomas+2.2
2314-9USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Ally Tribe+2.6
2414-10USFUTSAAttack errLaila Ivey+1.4
2515-10UTSAUSFBad setAlyssa Manitzas+1.7
2615-11USFUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+1.4
2716-11UTSAUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
2816-12USFUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+1.3
2916-13UTSAUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Valeria Ortiz+2.7
3017-13UTSAUSF×4KillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.3
3118-13USFUSF×4KillPaula Tomasaset Ryelle Rondo+2.6
3219-13USFUSF×4KillPaula Tomasaset Ryelle Rondo+1.7
3320-13USFUSF×4KillAddy Brus+1.0
3420-14USFUTSAKillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+0.3
3521-14UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Miya Thomas+0.6
3622-14USFUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.4
3722-15USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+0.1
3823-15UTSAUSF×3KillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.2
3924-15USFUSF×3Bad setMegan Hawkins+0.1
4025-15USFUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva·
Set 4
11-0USFUSFBlockedSydney Bryantblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+3.0
22-0USFUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.9
32-1USFUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+1.9
42-2UTSAUTSAAceUTSAaced Miya Thomas+3.1
53-2UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.1
64-2USFUSFBad setMegan Hawkins+3.0
74-3USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.0
85-3UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+2.1
95-4USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.1
106-4UTSAUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.1
116-5USFUTSA×6Attack errPaula Tomasa+2.1
126-6UTSAUTSA×6KillAlly Tribeset Valeria Ortiz+3.4
136-7UTSAUTSA×6BlockedIyanna Garvinblk Ledisi Kpea+3.6
146-8UTSAUTSA×6BlockedAddy Brusblk Ally Tribe, Ledisi Kpea+3.7
156-9UTSAUTSA×6BlockedAddy Brusblk Ledisi Kpea, Makinsey Jones+3.6
166-10UTSAUTSA×6KillAlly Tribeset Valeria Ortiz+3.4
177-10UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.9
187-11USFUTSAKillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+2.4
198-11UTSAUSFBlockedCaroline Tredwellblk Iyanna Garvin+2.0
208-12USFUTSAServe errSouth Fla.+2.4
218-13UTSAUTSAAttack errPaula Tomasa+3.1
229-13UTSAUSFKillLaila Iveyset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
239-14USFUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Megan Hawkins+2.1
2410-14UTSAUSFBlockedSydney Bryantblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.6
2510-15USFUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+2.1
2610-16UTSAUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Caroline Tredwell+2.4
2711-16UTSAUSFServe errUTSA+1.1
2811-17USFUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+1.6
2912-17UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.0
3012-18USFUTSA×4KillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.6
3112-19UTSAUTSA×4AceUTSAaced Miya Thomas+1.5
3212-20UTSAUTSA×4KillLedisi Kpeaset Alyssa Manitzas+0.8
3312-21UTSAUTSA×4KillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+0.4
3413-21UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.1
3514-21USFUSFKillNina Jioshvili-Ravvaset Iyanna Garvin+0.3
3614-22USFUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+0.4
3715-22UTSAUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.1
3816-22USFUSFAttack errMakinsey Jones+0.3
3916-23USFUTSAAttack errLaila Ivey+0.5
4017-23UTSAUSFBlockedSydney Bryantblk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege+0.1
4117-24USFUTSAAttack errLaila Ivey+0.3
4218-24UTSAUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva·
4318-25USFUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+1.3
Set 5
11-0UTSAUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+5.9
21-1USFUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Alyssa Manitzas+6.0
31-2UTSAUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+9.5
42-2UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Miya Thomas+6.3
52-3USFUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+6.8
62-4UTSAUTSABlockedIyanna Garvinblk Ledisi Kpea+10.0
73-4UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.2
83-5USFUTSAAttack errAddy Brus+7.2
94-5UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+6.4
104-6USFUTSAKillValeria Ortizset Ally Tribe+7.5
114-7UTSAUTSAAceGiada Obregonaced Miya Thomas+10.3
125-7UTSAUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+5.7
135-8USFUTSA×4KillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+7.3
145-9UTSAUTSA×4Attack errPaula Tomasa+8.9
155-10UTSAUTSA×4BlockedLaila Iveyblk Caroline Tredwell, Makinsey Jones+6.5
165-11UTSAUTSA×4BlockedMora Pampinblk Caroline Tredwell, Ally Tribe+4.1
176-11UTSAUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Emelyn Stettin+1.3
186-12USFUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Valeria Ortiz+2.4
197-12UTSAUSFAttack errAlly Tribe+1.0
208-12USFUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.7
218-13USFUTSAServe errRyelle Rondo+3.4
229-13UTSAUSFKillAddy Brusset Miya Thomas+1.2
2310-13USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.7
2410-14USFUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+5.1
2511-14UTSAUSFServe errCaroline Tredwell+1.4
2611-15USFUTSAServe errPaula Tomasa+3.5

Score shown after each rally, South Fla. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).