Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026
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AwaySUNSHINE-STATE

3:1

Tampa def. West Florida 3–1

Tampa won at West Florida 3-1 (30-28, 25-21, 13-25, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026. Tampa's Connor Rahn led with 13 kills, and Ana Rivera added 20 digs.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set1234Sets
TAMPA302513253
W FLA282125211

Win probability

West Florida above 50 · Tampa below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.4% TAMPArally 188 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.4% to Tampa — set 1, TAMPA 30-28 W FLA. Attack error by Emily Breazeale. W FLA win probability 46% → 36%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TAMPA 44.8%55.2% W FLA

Tampa wins

3-0
10.4%
3-1
16.6%
3-2
17.8%

West Florida wins

3-0
14.8%
3-1
20.9%
3-2
19.5%
TAMPA break %
40.2% vs this opp
W FLA break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Emily BreazealeAttack error+10.4%

    Attack error by Emily Breazeale

    Set 1 · TAMPA 30-28 W FLA · TAMPA 54% → 64%

  2. 02

    Gabi Moulton stuffed by Maddie Sofarelli & Camden Rahn

    Set 1 · TAMPA 25-24 W FLA · TAMPA 43% → 54%

  3. 03

    Olivia Guzman stuffed by Aniston Cochran & Emily Breazeale

    Set 1 · TAMPA 22-23 W FLA · W FLA 54% → 62%

  4. 04

    Kill by Aniston Cochran (set by Karyna Werley)

    Set 1 · TAMPA 25-25 W FLA · W FLA 46% → 53%

  5. 05
    Connor RahnKill+7.0%

    Kill by Connor Rahn (set by Kayla Dondero)

    Set 1 · TAMPA 26-25 W FLA · TAMPA 47% → 54%

  6. 06
    Gabi MoultonKill+7.0%

    Kill by Gabi Moulton (set by Karyna Werley)

    Set 1 · TAMPA 26-26 W FLA · W FLA 46% → 53%

  7. 07

    Talya Sampson stuffed by Camden Rahn & Mak Carter

    Set 1 · TAMPA 27-26 W FLA · TAMPA 47% → 54%

  8. 08
    Gabi MoultonKill+7.0%

    Kill by Gabi Moulton (set by Karyna Werley)

    Set 1 · TAMPA 27-27 W FLA · W FLA 46% → 53%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Tampaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413649.14310082132.515.5
410219.4210021008414
412530.233103152010.512.5
47626.038100000429
48415.267000000219
4000–2331800003
42021.00023211100004
4001.0003132030001
32210.000000000213
3000–101000000
2000–000000000
11011.000000001012
1114.000000000001
Team totals5626157.191536116372201293
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49727.07400163010.59.5
45317.1181530101031.59.5
46218.22201110031.58.5
47320.20000020010.57.5
46423.0872500901017
4003.000110800001
47620.050000200007
4001.0001212120002
38116.438000000008
3000–101700000
1000–000000000
Team totals4826145.152437466618595

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TAMPA · W FLA 6

Set 1

30-28

Longest run 4 TAMPAW FLA 5

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 5 TAMPAW FLA 4

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 3 TAMPAW FLA 6

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 TAMPAW FLA 5

Bars above the line = West Florida leads, below = Tampa leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Tampa

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
47%8/17
2
50%9/18
36%5/14
3
38%9/24
31%4/13
4
89%8/9
44%7/16
5
67%8/12
50%8/16
6
67%8/12
50%8/16
All
55%53/96
43%40/92

West Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
50%9/18
2
53%9/17
39%7/18
3
64%9/14
57%12/21
4
47%8/17
50%8/16
5
73%8/11
20%2/10
6
44%7/16
38%5/13
All
57%52/92
45%43/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#TAMPA-W FLASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Kayla Dondero+1.8
21-1TAMPAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Madalyn Mire+1.8
31-2W FLAW FLA×3AceWest Floridaaced Ana Rivera+2.6
41-3W FLAW FLA×3Attack errMaddie Sofarelli+2.6
52-3W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+1.7
62-4TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+1.8
73-4W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Ana Rivera+1.7
83-5TAMPAW FLAKillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+1.8
94-5W FLATAMPA×3KillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+1.8
105-5TAMPATAMPA×3AceTampaaced Emily Breazeale+2.8
116-5TAMPATAMPA×3BlockedTalya Sampsonblk Olivia Guzman, Mak Carter+2.9
126-6TAMPAW FLA×3KillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+2.0
136-7W FLAW FLA×3KillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+2.9
146-8W FLAW FLA×3Attack errMak Carter+2.9
157-8W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Jenna Glaudel+1.9
167-9TAMPAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+2.0
178-9W FLATAMPABad setGabi Moulton+1.9
188-10TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+2.1
198-11W FLAW FLAAttack errConnor Rahn+2.8
209-11W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Jenna Glaudel+1.8
219-12TAMPAW FLAAttack errCamden Rahn+2.0
229-13W FLAW FLAAceWest Floridaaced Ana Rivera+2.6
2310-13W FLATAMPA×3KillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+1.5
2411-13TAMPATAMPA×3KillConnor Rahnset Ana Rivera+2.7
2512-13TAMPATAMPA×3BlockedEmily Breazealeblk Maddie Sofarelli, Connor Rahn+3.1
2612-14TAMPAW FLA×5Serve errTampa+2.4
2712-15W FLAW FLA×5Attack errAinhoa Molleja+3.2
2812-16W FLAW FLA×5KillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+2.7
2912-17W FLAW FLA×5KillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+2.1
3012-18W FLAW FLA×5Attack errConnor Rahn+1.5
3113-18W FLATAMPA×3KillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+0.7
3214-18TAMPATAMPA×3Attack errEmily Breazeale+1.4
3315-18TAMPATAMPA×3KillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+2.1
3415-19TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+1.9
3516-19W FLATAMPA×4BlockedEmily Breazealeblk Mak Carter, Connor Rahn+1.4
3617-19TAMPATAMPA×4BlockedGabi Moultonblk Mak Carter, Connor Rahn+2.9
3718-19TAMPATAMPA×4Attack errGabi Moulton+3.9
3819-19TAMPATAMPA×4KillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+4.9
3919-20TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+3.7
4020-20W FLATAMPAKillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+3.6
4121-20TAMPATAMPAKillAinhoa Molleja+6.1
4221-21TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+4.0
4322-21W FLATAMPAKillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+4.8
4422-22TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+4.5
4522-23W FLAW FLABlockedOlivia Guzmanblk Aniston Cochran, Emily Breazeale+8.0
4623-23W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+5.2
4723-24TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+6.8
4824-24W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Kayla Dondero+6.8
4925-24TAMPATAMPABlockedGabi Moultonblk Maddie Sofarelli, Camden Rahn+10.2
5025-25TAMPAW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+7.0
5126-25W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+7.0
5226-26TAMPAW FLAKillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+7.0
5327-26W FLATAMPABlockedTalya Sampsonblk Camden Rahn, Mak Carter+7.0
5427-27TAMPAW FLAKillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+7.0
5528-27W FLATAMPAAttack errDelaney Hanowell+7.0
5628-28TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+7.0
5729-28W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+7.0
5830-28TAMPATAMPAAttack errEmily Breazeale+10.4
Set 2
11-0TAMPATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Kayla Dondero+2.7
21-1TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+1.9
31-2W FLAW FLAAttack errCamden Rahn+2.7
42-2W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+1.9
53-2TAMPATAMPAAttack errEmily Breazeale+2.9
63-3TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+1.9
73-4W FLAW FLAAttack errConnor Rahn+2.9
84-4W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Ainhoa Molleja+2.0
94-5TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+2.0
105-5W FLATAMPAKillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+2.0
115-6TAMPAW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+2.1
126-6W FLATAMPAServe errWest Florida+2.1
136-7TAMPAW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+2.1
147-7W FLATAMPA×5KillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+2.1
158-7TAMPATAMPA×5KillAinhoa Mollejaset Kayla Dondero+3.2
169-7TAMPATAMPA×5AceTampaaced Emily Breazeale+3.3
1710-7TAMPATAMPA×5KillAinhoa Molleja+3.1
1811-7TAMPATAMPA×5AceTampaaced Emily Breazeale+2.9
1911-8TAMPAW FLAAttack errAinhoa Molleja+1.7
2012-8W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+2.0
2112-9TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+1.7
2213-9W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Kayla Dondero+2.1
2314-9TAMPATAMPAAttack errKumara Flanagain+2.5
2414-10TAMPAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+1.3
2514-11W FLAW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+2.5
2614-12W FLAW FLA×3KillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+3.0
2715-12W FLATAMPAServe errWest Florida+2.5
2815-13TAMPAW FLA×4Attack errOlivia Guzman+2.1
2915-14W FLAW FLA×4Attack errMak Carter+3.7
3015-15W FLAW FLA×4KillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+4.1
3115-16W FLAW FLA×4BlockedConnor Rahnblk Gabi Moulton+4.3
3216-16W FLATAMPA×3KillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+3.0
3317-16TAMPATAMPA×3BlockedGabi Moultonblk Olivia Guzman, Mak Carter+4.7
3418-16TAMPATAMPA×3KillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+4.7
3518-17TAMPAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+2.8
3619-17W FLATAMPAKillOlivia Guzmanset Jenna Glaudel+3.4
3719-18TAMPAW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+3.0
3819-19W FLAW FLAAttack errAinhoa Molleja+5.2
3920-19W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Jenna Glaudel+4.0
4020-20TAMPAW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+3.9
4121-20W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Kayla Dondero+4.4
4222-20TAMPATAMPAAttack errTalya Sampson+6.3
4322-21TAMPAW FLAKillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+3.3
4423-21W FLATAMPA×3KillConnor Rahnset Ana Rivera+4.9
4524-21TAMPATAMPA×3Attack errEmily Breazeale+5.0
4625-21TAMPATAMPA×3KillMak Carterset Kayla Dondero+1.9
Set 3
10-1W FLAW FLAAttack errMaddie Sofarelli+1.9
21-1W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Kayla Dondero+1.3
31-2TAMPAW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Gabi Moulton+1.3
41-3W FLAW FLAAceWest Floridaaced Ainhoa Molleja+1.9
52-3W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+1.3
62-4TAMPAW FLAAttack errConnor Rahn+1.4
73-4W FLATAMPA×3KillConnor Rahnset Camden Rahn+1.3
84-4TAMPATAMPA×3KillJenna Glaudelset Camryn Brooks+2.1
95-4TAMPATAMPA×3KillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+2.1
105-5TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+1.5
116-5W FLATAMPAKillOlivia Guzmanset Jenna Glaudel+1.5
127-5TAMPATAMPAAttack errDelaney Hanowell+2.2
137-6TAMPAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+1.4
148-6W FLATAMPAServe errWest Florida+1.6
158-7TAMPAW FLA×4Serve errTampa+1.5
168-8W FLAW FLA×4Attack errAinhoa Molleja+2.3
178-9W FLAW FLA×4AceWest Floridaaced Connor Rahn+2.4
188-10W FLAW FLA×4Bad setJenna Glaudel+2.3
199-10W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+1.5
2010-10TAMPATAMPAAceTampaaced Madalyn Mire+2.4
2110-11TAMPAW FLA×6KillGabi Moultonset Madison Joyner+1.7
2210-12W FLAW FLA×6KillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+2.5
2310-13W FLAW FLA×6BlockedCamden Rahnblk Aniston Cochran, Karyna Werley+2.3
2410-14W FLAW FLA×6BlockedMaddie Sofarelliblk Karyna Werley, Aniston Cochran+2.0
2510-15W FLAW FLA×6KillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+1.6
2610-16W FLAW FLA×6KillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+1.2
2711-16W FLATAMPAKillJulianna Baskinset Kayla Dondero+0.6
2811-17TAMPAW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Kayla Dondero+0.8
2911-18W FLAW FLAAttack errCamden Rahn+0.8
3012-18W FLATAMPABlockedAniston Cochranblk Julianna Baskin+0.3
3112-19TAMPAW FLA×5KillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+0.5
3212-20W FLAW FLA×5KillDelaney Hanowellset Ainhoa Molleja+0.4
3312-21W FLAW FLA×5KillKaryna Werleyset Camryn Brooks+0.2
3412-22W FLAW FLA×5AceWest Floridaaced Ainhoa Molleja+0.1
3512-23W FLAW FLA×5Attack errCamden Rahn·
3613-23W FLATAMPAServe errWest Florida·
3713-24TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton·
3813-25W FLAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley·
Set 4
11-0TAMPATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Jenna Glaudel+3.6
22-0TAMPATAMPAKillJenna Glaudelset Connor Rahn+3.7
32-1TAMPAW FLAKillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+2.4
43-1W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+2.6
53-2TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+2.4
63-3W FLAW FLAAceWest Floridaaced Connor Rahn+3.8
74-3W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Jenna Glaudel+2.7
85-3TAMPATAMPAAttack errEmily Breazeale+3.9
95-4TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+2.5
106-4W FLATAMPAKillMaddie Sofarelliset Kayla Dondero+2.8
117-4TAMPATAMPAAttack errKaryna Werley+3.9
127-5TAMPAW FLAAttack errConnor Rahn+2.4
138-5W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+2.7
149-5TAMPATAMPAAttack errAniston Cochran+3.7
159-6TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+2.2
169-7W FLAW FLAAttack errKatelynn Lowery+3.7
1710-7W FLATAMPAKillConnor Rahnset Kayla Dondero+2.9
1811-7TAMPATAMPAAceTampaaced Karyna Werley+3.8
1911-8TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+2.2
2012-8W FLATAMPA×3BlockedKaryna Werleyblk Mak Carter, Camden Rahn+2.7
2113-8TAMPATAMPA×3Attack errTalya Sampson+3.3
2214-8TAMPATAMPA×3KillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+2.7
2314-9TAMPAW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+1.3
2414-10W FLAW FLAKillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+2.6
2515-10W FLATAMPABlockedKaryna Werleyblk Mak Carter, Ainhoa Molleja+2.3
2615-11TAMPAW FLAAttack errMaddie Sofarelli+1.7
2716-11W FLATAMPAKillCamden Rahnset Jenna Glaudel+2.3
2816-12TAMPAW FLA×5KillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+1.7
2916-13W FLAW FLA×5KillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+3.3
3016-14W FLAW FLA×5Bad setKayla Dondero+4.2
3116-15W FLAW FLA×5KillEmily Breazeale+5.1
3216-16W FLAW FLA×5AceWest Floridaaced Ana Rivera+5.8
3317-16W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Kayla Dondero+4.3
3417-17TAMPAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+4.2
3518-17W FLATAMPAAttack errTalya Sampson+4.5
3619-17TAMPATAMPAAceTampaaced Madalyn Mire+6.6
3719-18TAMPAW FLAServe errTampa+3.9
3820-18W FLATAMPA×3KillKatelynn Loweryset Kayla Dondero+4.9
3921-18TAMPATAMPA×3BlockedDelaney Hanowellblk Connor Rahn+6.1
4022-18TAMPATAMPA×3BlockedTalya Sampsonblk Mak Carter, Camden Rahn+4.4
4122-19TAMPAW FLAAttack errMak Carter+1.6
4222-20W FLAW FLABlockedCamden Rahnblk Delaney Hanowell, Karyna Werley+4.1
4323-20W FLATAMPAKillMak Carterset Jenna Glaudel+4.5
4423-21TAMPAW FLAAttack errAinhoa Molleja+2.4
4524-21W FLATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Jenna Glaudel+4.6
4625-21TAMPATAMPAKillAinhoa Mollejaset Logan Milan+2.5

Score shown after each rally, Tampa first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).