West Florida vs Central Ark.: West Florida Wins 3-1 (Sep 19)

Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026 · Neutral site

3:1

West Florida beat Central Ark. 3-1 (25-17, 17-25, 25-11, 25-13) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site. West Florida's Talya Sampson led with 20 kills, and Camryn Brooks added 12 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Sep 19

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
W FLA	25	17	25	25	3
C ARK	17	25	11	13	1

Win probability

Central Ark. above 50 · West Florida below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to West Florida — set 3, W FLA 3-1 C ARK. West Florida ace on Sarah Carnathan. C ARK win probability 13% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W FLA 91.7%8.3% C ARK

West Florida wins

3-0

47.5%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

12.8%

Central Ark. wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.5%

3-2

4.8%

W FLA break %: 48.7% vs this opp
C ARK break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
West FloridaAce+1.5%
West Florida ace on Sarah Carnathan
Set 3 · W FLA 3-1 C ARK · W FLA 87% → 88%
02
Central Ark.Ace+1.4%
Central Ark. ace on Aniston Cochran
Set 1 · W FLA 6-8 C ARK · C ARK 10% → 12%
03
Karlyn FrazierKill+1.4%
Kill by Karlyn Frazier (set by Sophie Skinner)
Set 3 · W FLA 1-1 C ARK · C ARK 13% → 14%
04
Talya SampsonKill+1.3%
Kill by Talya Sampson (set by Madalyn Mire)
Set 3 · W FLA 5-2 C ARK · W FLA 88% → 90%
05
Aniston CochranKill+1.3%
Kill by Aniston Cochran (set by Karyna Werley)
Set 3 · W FLA 2-1 C ARK · W FLA 86% → 87%
06
Emily BreazealeBad set+1.3%
Bad set by Emily Breazeale
Set 1 · W FLA 2-4 C ARK · C ARK 10% → 11%
07
West FloridaAce+1.2%
West Florida ace on Kennady Martindale
Set 1 · W FLA 8-8 C ARK · W FLA 89% → 91%
08
West FloridaAce+1.2%
West Florida ace on Cameron McDaniel
Set 4 · W FLA 2-1 C ARK · W FLA 94% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

West Floridaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Talya SampsonOH	4	20	0	27	.741	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	21
11Aniston CochranMB	4	2	1	4	.250	0	6	0	3	1	5	2.5	10.5
1Emily BreazealeOH	4	8	6	23	.087	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	9.5
9Elizabeth KwiatkowskiOH	4	7	1	8	.750	19	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Karyna WerleyS	4	4	5	13	-.077	20	0	1	7	0	0	0	4
7Delaney HanowellMB	4	2	6	13	-.308	1	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
18Kumara FlanagainOH	4	8	1	14	.500	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	9
6Madalyn MireL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	3	1	5	1	0	0	3
2Madison JoynerL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	2
8Camryn BrooksL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	12	2	0	0	0
10Kendra HowseMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Rowan KageL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	20	102	.304	45	12	4	39	5	16	8	92

Central Ark.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ella ChaneyOH	4	12	1	23	.478	1	0	0	7	0	0	3	1.5	13.5
3Karlyn FrazierMB	4	7	4	15	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	10.5
20Greyson ButtonMB	4	7	3	18	.222	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
23Sophie SkinnerS	4	1	2	4	-.250	31	2	1	5	0	0	4	2	5
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0
1Annie HopkinsOH	1	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
5Olivia KremerL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	6	3	0	0	0	1
12Sarah CarnathanOH	3	5	6	19	-.053	0	2	0	4	1	0	2	1	8
6Nicole SargentOPP	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Kennady MartindaleMB	1	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
2Trinity HamiltonOH	1	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	21	99	.152	33	5	6	24	12	1	22	12	66

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 W FLA · C ARK 6

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 W FLAC ARK 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 W FLAC ARK 6

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 5 W FLAC ARK 2

Set 4

25-13

Longest run 6 W FLAC ARK 2

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = West Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

West Florida

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	50%7/14
2	80%8/10	33%4/12
3	47%8/17	62%13/21
4	53%8/15	56%10/18
5	75%6/8	57%8/14
6	83%5/6	58%7/12
All	64%43/67	54%49/91

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	0%0/7
2	53%8/15	33%4/12
3	36%8/22	33%4/12
4	39%7/18	53%9/17
5	50%5/10	42%5/12
6	38%5/13	29%2/7
All	46%42/91	36%24/67

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

158 rallies

#	W FLA-C ARK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Karyna Werley	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.6
2	1-1	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
3	1-2	C ARK	C ARK	Blocked	Emily Breazeale	blk Greyson Button, Annie Hopkins	+1.1
4	2-2	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.7
5	2-3	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.9
6	2-4	C ARK	C ARK	Bad set	Emily Breazeale		+1.3
7	3-4	C ARK	W FLA	Serve err	Central Ark.		+0.8
8	3-5	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+1.0
9	4-5	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Karyna Werley	+0.9
10	5-5	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	West Florida	aced Trinity Hamilton	+1.1
11	5-6	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+1.0
12	6-6	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+0.9
13	6-7	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+1.0
14	6-8	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	Central Ark.	aced Aniston Cochran	+1.4
15	7-8	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Karyna Werley	+1.0
16	8-8	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	West Florida	aced Kennady Martindale	+1.2
17	8-9	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Trinity Hamilton	+1.1
18	9-9	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+1.0
19	10-9	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	West Florida	aced Cameron McDaniel	+1.2
20	10-10	W FLA	C ARK	Blocked	Emily Breazeale	blk Sophie Skinner, Annie Hopkins	+1.0
21	11-10	C ARK	W FLA×5	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Madalyn Mire	+0.9
22	12-10	W FLA	W FLA×5	Attack err	Annie Hopkins		+1.1
23	13-10	W FLA	W FLA×5	Kill	Karyna Werley	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.9
24	14-10	W FLA	W FLA×5	Ace	West Florida	aced Cameron McDaniel	+0.7
25	15-10	W FLA	W FLA×5	Ace	West Florida	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.5
26	15-11	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.4
27	15-12	C ARK	C ARK	Blocked	Karyna Werley	blk Ella Chaney, Greyson Button	+0.7
28	16-12	C ARK	W FLA×3	Kill	Delaney Hanowell	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.6
29	17-12	W FLA	W FLA×3	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.6
30	18-12	W FLA	W FLA×3	Bad set	Ella Chaney		+0.4
31	18-13	W FLA	C ARK×3	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
32	18-14	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Delaney Hanowell		+0.4
33	18-15	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Emily Breazeale		+0.7
34	19-15	C ARK	W FLA×4	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Karyna Werley	+0.6
35	20-15	W FLA	W FLA×4	Blocked	Greyson Button	blk Delaney Hanowell, Talya Sampson	+0.5
36	21-15	W FLA	W FLA×4	Ace	West Florida	aced Trinity Hamilton	+0.3
37	22-15	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.1
38	22-16	W FLA	C ARK	Attack err	Delaney Hanowell		·
39	22-17	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Delaney Hanowell		+0.1
40	23-17	C ARK	W FLA×3	Blocked	Sophie Skinner	blk Talya Sampson, Delaney Hanowell	+0.2
41	24-17	W FLA	W FLA×3	Blocked	Kennady Martindale	blk Kumara Flanagain, Aniston Cochran	+0.1
42	25-17	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier		·
Set 2
1	1-0	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+0.6
2	1-1	W FLA	C ARK×3	Attack err	Aniston Cochran		+0.5
3	1-2	C ARK	C ARK×3	Blocked	Karyna Werley	blk Karlyn Frazier, Sophie Skinner	+0.7
4	1-3	C ARK	C ARK×3	Blocked	Karyna Werley	blk Sophie Skinner, Karlyn Frazier	+0.8
5	2-3	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Karyna Werley	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.5
6	2-4	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
7	3-4	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.6
8	3-5	W FLA	C ARK×6	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
9	3-6	C ARK	C ARK×6	Blocked	Emily Breazeale	blk Nicole Sargent, Karlyn Frazier	+0.9
10	3-7	C ARK	C ARK×6	Ace	Central Ark.	aced Madison Joyner	+1.0
11	3-8	C ARK	C ARK×6	Blocked	Delaney Hanowell	blk Karlyn Frazier	+1.0
12	3-9	C ARK	C ARK×6	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+1.0
13	3-10	C ARK	C ARK×6	Blocked	Karyna Werley	blk Karlyn Frazier, Ella Chaney	+1.0
14	4-10	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Karyna Werley	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.5
15	4-11	W FLA	C ARK×4	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+0.8
16	4-12	C ARK	C ARK×4	Ace	Central Ark.	aced Camryn Brooks	+0.8
17	4-13	C ARK	C ARK×4	Blocked	Delaney Hanowell	blk Greyson Button, Ella Chaney	+0.7
18	4-14	C ARK	C ARK×4	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Ella Chaney	+0.6
19	5-14	C ARK	W FLA	Serve err	Central Ark.		+0.2
20	5-15	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.4
21	6-15	C ARK	W FLA	Serve err	Central Ark.		+0.2
22	7-15	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Delaney Hanowell	+0.4
23	7-16	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.5
24	8-16	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Karyna Werley	+0.3
25	8-17	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.4
26	9-17	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.2
27	9-18	W FLA	C ARK	Serve err	West Florida		+0.4
28	10-18	C ARK	W FLA	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.2
29	11-18	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.4
30	11-19	W FLA	C ARK	Attack err	Emily Breazeale		+0.5
31	12-19	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.2
32	12-20	W FLA	C ARK	Attack err	Kumara Flanagain		+0.4
33	12-21	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney		+0.3
34	13-21	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Karyna Werley	+0.1
35	13-22	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
36	13-23	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.1
37	14-23	C ARK	W FLA×3	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Karyna Werley	·
38	15-23	W FLA	W FLA×3	Bad set	Sophie Skinner		·
39	16-23	W FLA	W FLA×3	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+0.1
40	16-24	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.1
41	17-24	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	·
42	17-25	W FLA	C ARK	Blocked	Karyna Werley	blk Sarah Carnathan, Greyson Button	·
Set 3
1	1-0	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Karyna Werley	+1.2
2	1-1	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+1.4
3	2-1	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Aniston Cochran	set Karyna Werley	+1.3
4	3-1	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	West Florida	aced Sarah Carnathan	+1.5
5	3-2	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+1.2
6	4-2	C ARK	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+1.2
7	5-2	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Madalyn Mire	+1.3
8	6-2	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Sophie Skinner	+1.1
9	7-2	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson		+0.9
10	7-3	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	+0.6
11	8-3	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.7
12	8-4	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
13	9-4	C ARK	W FLA×3	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.7
14	10-4	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.7
15	11-4	W FLA	W FLA×3	Blocked	Karlyn Frazier	blk Aniston Cochran, Emily Breazeale	+0.5
16	11-5	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.3
17	12-5	C ARK	W FLA×5	Serve err	Central Ark.		+0.4
18	13-5	W FLA	W FLA×5	Blocked	Nicole Sargent	blk Aniston Cochran, Emily Breazeale	+0.3
19	14-5	W FLA	W FLA×5	Blocked	Sarah Carnathan	blk Elizabeth Kwiatkowski, Aniston Cochran	+0.2
20	15-5	W FLA	W FLA×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
21	16-5	W FLA	W FLA×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
22	16-6	W FLA	C ARK	Serve err	West Florida		·
23	17-6	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Karyna Werley	·
24	18-6	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	·
25	18-7	W FLA	C ARK	Serve err	West Florida		·
26	19-7	C ARK	W FLA	Serve err	Central Ark.		·
27	19-8	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	·
28	19-9	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button		·
29	20-9	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Karyna Werley	·
30	21-9	W FLA	W FLA	Attack err	Greyson Button		·
31	21-10	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	·
32	21-11	C ARK	C ARK	Blocked	Delaney Hanowell	blk Greyson Button, Sophie Skinner	·
33	22-11	C ARK	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	·
34	23-11	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		·
35	24-11	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Sophie Skinner	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	·
36	25-11	W FLA	W FLA×4	Ace	West Florida	aced Cameron McDaniel	·
Set 4
1	0-1	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+1.1
2	1-1	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Camryn Brooks	+1.0
3	2-1	W FLA	W FLA	Ace	West Florida	aced Cameron McDaniel	+1.2
4	2-2	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+1.0
5	3-2	C ARK	W FLA×3	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Karyna Werley	+1.0
6	4-2	W FLA	W FLA×3	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+1.1
7	5-2	W FLA	W FLA×3	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier		+1.0
8	5-3	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+0.8
9	5-4	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	Central Ark.	aced Madalyn Mire	+1.2
10	6-4	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Karyna Werley	+0.9
11	7-4	W FLA	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+1.0
12	7-5	W FLA	C ARK	Serve err	West Florida		+0.8
13	8-5	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.8
14	9-5	W FLA	W FLA	Blocked	Ella Chaney	blk Kumara Flanagain, Delaney Hanowell	+0.9
15	9-6	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
16	10-6	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Emily Breazeale	set Camryn Brooks	+0.7
17	10-7	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
18	11-7	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Kumara Flanagain	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	+0.7
19	12-7	W FLA	W FLA	Blocked	Greyson Button	blk Emily Breazeale, Aniston Cochran	+0.7
20	12-8	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sophie Skinner		+0.5
21	12-9	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Emily Breazeale		+0.9
22	13-9	C ARK	W FLA	Serve err	Central Ark.		+0.7
23	14-9	W FLA	W FLA	Attack err	Sophie Skinner		+0.7
24	14-10	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.5
25	14-11	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	Central Ark.	aced Camryn Brooks	+0.9
26	15-11	C ARK	W FLA×6	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Camryn Brooks	+0.8
27	16-11	W FLA	W FLA×6	Kill	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	set Karyna Werley	+0.8
28	17-11	W FLA	W FLA×6	Ace	West Florida		+0.5
29	18-11	W FLA	W FLA×6	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.3
30	19-11	W FLA	W FLA×6	Ace	West Florida	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.2
31	20-11	W FLA	W FLA×6	Ace	West Florida	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.1
32	20-12	W FLA	C ARK	Blocked	Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	blk Sarah Carnathan, Karlyn Frazier	·
33	21-12	C ARK	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Karyna Werley	+0.1
34	22-12	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson		·
35	23-12	W FLA	W FLA×4	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier		·
36	24-12	W FLA	W FLA×4	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	·
37	24-13	W FLA	C ARK	Kill	Ella Chaney	set Sophie Skinner	·
38	25-13	C ARK	W FLA	Kill	Talya Sampson	set Elizabeth Kwiatkowski	·

Score shown after each rally, West Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

West Florida def. Central Ark. 3–1