FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeOVC

Cincinnati def. Morehead St. 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CINCY	25	25	25	3
MOREST	18	23	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MOREST above 50 · CINCY below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Cincinnati — set 2, CINCY 25-23 MOREST. Morehead St. service error. MOREST win probability 3% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CINCY 90.6%9.4% MOREST

Cincinnati wins

3-0

45.4%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.6%

Morehead St. wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.9%

3-2

5.3%

CINCY break %: 48.2% vs this opp
MOREST break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MOREST serverService error+1.9%
Morehead St. service error
Set 2 · CINCY 25-23 MOREST · CINCY 97% → 98%
02
Amelia NottKill+1.2%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 2 · CINCY 24-23 MOREST · MOREST 2% → 3%
03
MOREST serverAce+1.1%
Morehead St. ace on Viktoria Ninova
Set 1 · CINCY 0-1 MOREST · MOREST 9% → 11%
04
Audrey RomeKill+1.0%
Kill by Audrey Rome (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · CINCY 2-1 MOREST · CINCY 90% → 91%
05
MOREST serverAce+1.0%
Morehead St. ace on Izzy Busignani
Set 2 · CINCY 1-4 MOREST · MOREST 6% → 7%
06
Sydney NolanKill+0.9%
Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · CINCY 4-2 MOREST · CINCY 91% → 92%
07
Nina ScruccaAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Nina Scrucca
Set 2 · CINCY 0-2 MOREST · MOREST 5% → 6%
08
Ella WarrickAttack error+0.8%
Ella Warrick stuffed by Kate Lijic & Audrey Rome
Set 2 · CINCY 3-4 MOREST · CINCY 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cincinnatiaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Izzy BusignaniOH	3	16	3	32	.406	0	2	0	8	3	0	1	0.5	18.5
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	9	2	15	.467	0	3	2	6	0	1	1	1.5	13.5
2Sydney NolanOH	3	11	1	21	.476	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
5Lilian EntenmannMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	6
6Kate LijicS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	42	0	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
4Audrey RomeMB	2	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	3	12	1	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	0
7Andrea SimovskiOH	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
15Elliott MickelberryMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	11	93	.387	44	6	9	51	9	1	12	7	75

Morehead St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Amelia NottMB	3	11	1	16	.625	0	2	3	2	0	2	1	14
5Ella WarrickOH	3	9	8	37	.027	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	10
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	4	1	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
15Anna SchiltzMB	3	2	0	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	2	.000	11	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3Tinsley BrownDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	1
1Riley McCloskeyOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	2	1	3	1.5	5.5
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	3	2	2	0	0	0	3
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	11	2	0	0	1
22Reagan BaxterMB	2	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
7Kylie SharpMB	2	0	1	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Norah CampbellDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team totals		32	12	102	.196	27	9	9	27	6	12	6	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 CINCY · MOREST 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 8 CINCYMOREST 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 6 CINCYMOREST 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 CINCYMOREST 5

Bars above the line = Morehead St. leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	44%4/9
2	60%6/10	54%7/13
3	55%6/11	73%16/22
4	35%6/17	50%6/12
5	60%6/10	33%3/9
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	57%36/63	53%39/73

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%6/16	22%2/9
2	35%6/17	25%2/8
3	43%6/14	57%8/14
4	50%6/12	54%7/13
5	83%5/6	50%6/12
6	63%5/8	29%2/7
All	47%34/73	43%27/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	CINCY-MOREST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+1.1
2	1-1	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
3	2-1	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
4	2-2	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.8
5	3-2	MOREST	CINCY×8	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Nina Scrucca	+0.7
6	4-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
7	5-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
8	6-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Ace	CINCY server	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.6
9	7-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Kate Lijic, Audrey Rome	+0.5
10	8-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
11	9-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Ace	CINCY server	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.3
12	10-2	CINCY	CINCY×8	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
13	10-3	CINCY	MOREST×4	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
14	10-4	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	MOREST server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+0.2
15	10-5	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+0.4
16	10-6	MOREST	MOREST×4	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.5
17	11-6	MOREST	CINCY×3	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.4
18	12-6	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.4
19	13-6	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.3
20	13-7	CINCY	MOREST×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+0.2
21	13-8	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Audrey Rome	blk Riley McCloskey, Haidyn Carter	+0.3
22	13-9	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.5
23	14-9	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
24	15-9	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Riley McCloskey	+0.4
25	15-10	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.3
26	15-11	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.5
27	16-11	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
28	16-12	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.4
29	17-12	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
30	17-13	CINCY	MOREST	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.4
31	18-13	MOREST	CINCY×3	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.5
32	19-13	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
33	20-13	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Tinsley Brown	+0.2
34	20-14	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
35	20-15	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+0.2
36	21-15	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
37	22-15	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.2
38	22-16	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
39	23-16	MOREST	CINCY	Attack err	Kylie Sharp		+0.1
40	23-17	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.0
41	24-17	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
42	24-18	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
43	25-18	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Anna Schiltz	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
2	0-2	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.9
3	1-2	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
4	1-3	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.7
5	1-4	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+1.0
6	2-4	MOREST	CINCY×6	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.6
7	3-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Kate Lijic, Audrey Rome	+0.8
8	4-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.8
9	5-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
10	6-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.6
11	7-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
12	7-5	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.4
13	8-5	MOREST	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
14	9-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
15	10-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Riley McCloskey	blk Kate Lijic, Audrey Rome	+0.4
16	11-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
17	11-6	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Josie Certa	+0.2
18	12-6	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.2
19	12-7	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Josie Certa	+0.2
20	13-7	MOREST	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
21	14-7	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
22	15-7	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
23	15-8	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
24	16-8	MOREST	CINCY×4	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
25	17-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Nina Scrucca, Lilian Entenmann	+0.1
26	18-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
27	19-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Norah Campbell	+0.0
28	19-9	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
29	20-9	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
30	20-10	CINCY	MOREST×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
31	20-11	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Andrea Simovski	blk Haidyn Carter, Reagan Baxter	+0.0
32	20-12	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
33	21-12	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
34	21-13	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+0.0
35	22-13	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
36	22-14	CINCY	MOREST×5	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.0
37	22-15	MOREST	MOREST×5	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.0
38	22-16	MOREST	MOREST×5	Attack err	Audrey Rome	blk Amelia Nott, Riley McCloskey	+0.0
39	22-17	MOREST	MOREST×5	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.1
40	22-18	MOREST	MOREST×5	Ace	MOREST server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.2
41	23-18	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.2
42	23-19	CINCY	MOREST×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
43	23-20	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Kate Lijic	blk Amelia Nott, Riley McCloskey	+0.3
44	23-21	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+0.6
45	24-21	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
46	24-22	CINCY	MOREST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.3
47	24-23	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
48	25-23	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+1.9
Set 3
1	1-0	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
2	1-1	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
3	2-1	MOREST	CINCY×4	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
4	3-1	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Amelia Nott	blk Tatjana Simeunovic	+0.3
5	4-1	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
6	5-1	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.2
7	5-2	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
8	6-2	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.2
9	6-3	CINCY	MOREST×5	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST×5	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+0.3
11	6-5	MOREST	MOREST×5	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Reagan Baxter, Haidyn Carter	+0.3
12	6-6	MOREST	MOREST×5	Ace	MOREST server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.4
13	6-7	MOREST	MOREST×5	Attack err	Tatjana Simeunovic		+0.5
14	7-7	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
15	8-7	CINCY	CINCY	Bad set	Josie Certa		+0.4
16	8-8	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.3
17	8-9	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Reagan Baxter, Haidyn Carter	+0.5
18	9-9	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
19	9-10	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Josie Certa	+0.4
20	10-10	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
21	10-11	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.4
22	11-11	MOREST	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+0.4
23	12-11	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
24	13-11	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
25	14-11	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
26	15-11	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
27	15-12	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
28	16-12	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
29	16-13	CINCY	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
30	16-14	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+0.3
31	16-15	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	MOREST server	aced Team	+0.5
32	17-15	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.4
33	18-15	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
34	18-16	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Anna Schiltz	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
35	18-17	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.5
36	19-17	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
37	20-17	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Haidyn Carter	blk Izzy Busignani, Lilian Entenmann	+0.5
38	20-18	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Reagan Baxter	set Josie Certa	+0.3
39	21-18	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
40	22-18	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
41	22-19	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Reagan Baxter	set Josie Certa	+0.1
42	23-19	MOREST	CINCY	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.2
43	24-19	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.1
44	24-20	CINCY	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.0
45	25-20	MOREST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.