Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

West Florida def. Bellarmine 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: West Florida 94.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

West Florida beat visiting Bellarmine 3-2 (22-25, 25-19, 21-25, 25-18, 15-9) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. West Florida's Emily Breazeale led with 19 kills, and Camryn Brooks added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set12345Sets
BELLAR2519251892
W FLA22252125153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

West Florida finished off Bellarmine 15–9 in the fifth.

The match turned twice; each line shows West Florida's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. West Florida went in as RallyIQ's 94% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Bellarmine 8–7 West Florida

    Bellarmine scored 6 straight to stretch an 8–7 lead to 14–7.

    West Florida 86% → 70%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Bellarmine 1–0 West Florida

    West Florida had 3 straight kills to turn a 0–1 deficit into a 3–1 lead.

    West Florida 69% → 86%

West Florida above 50Bellarmine belowMax swing 7.3%

BellarmineWest Florida

Sideout %
Bellarmine 51.4·West Florida 57.7
Break %
Bellarmine 42.3·West Florida 48.6
Hitting
Bellarmine .199·West Florida .248
Longest run
Bellarmine 8·West Florida 9

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

West Florida above 50 · Bellarmine below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+7.3% BELLARrally 204 · set 5

Biggest swing: 7.3% to Bellarmine — set 5, BELLAR 1-0 W FLA. Ace by Maddie Carnes on Madison Joyner. W FLA win probability 77% → 69%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BELLAR 10.8%89.2% W FLA

Bellarmine wins

3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
6.0%

West Florida wins

3-0
43.1%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.5%
BELLAR break %
38.5% vs this opp
W FLA break %
48.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Maddie Carnes on Madison Joyner

    Set 5 · BELLAR 1-0 W FLA · BELLAR 23% → 31%

  2. 02

    Kill by Aniston Cochran (set by Elizabeth Kwiatkowski)

    Set 5 · BELLAR 1-2 W FLA · W FLA 75% → 81%

  3. 03
    Karyna WerleyKill+5.3%

    Kill by Karyna Werley (set by Elizabeth Kwiatkowski)

    Set 5 · BELLAR 1-3 W FLA · W FLA 81% → 86%

  4. 04

    Kill by Emily Breazeale (set by Karyna Werley)

    Set 5 · BELLAR 1-1 W FLA · W FLA 69% → 75%

  5. 05
    Natalie BlandAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Natalie Bland

    Set 5 · BELLAR 2-5 W FLA · W FLA 86% → 90%

  6. 06
    Mady YadenKill+4.5%

    Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 5 · BELLAR 2-3 W FLA · BELLAR 14% → 19%

  7. 07

    Kill by Aniston Cochran (set by Elizabeth Kwiatkowski)

    Set 5 · BELLAR 2-4 W FLA · W FLA 81% → 86%

  8. 08
    Erika SmithKill+3.9%

    Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 1 · BELLAR 24-22 W FLA · BELLAR 11% → 15%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513842.11910310002114
59321.2860150012212
510228.2860002010111
58224.25000041031.59.5
5127-.14341531300006
5102.500044000005
59518.22200000233.512.5
5003.000011520001
5001.0002001710000
5000–202910000
Team totals5122146.199461118605410996
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519646.283001123010.519.5
510220.4000013004212
510324.29210000031.511.5
57221.2382701110031.58.5
32210.0001311220214
33414-.07100021010.53.5
5000–2202010002
5000–022600002
3428.250000101015
3418.3751301400004
3000–002420000
1102.500000020001
1000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6022153.2485651065111148108

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Bellarmine vs West Florida

Season series · West Florida leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 BELLAR · W FLA 9

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 8 BELLARW FLA 3

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 6 BELLARW FLA 9

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 6 BELLARW FLA 5

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 3 BELLARW FLA 3

Set 5

9-15

Longest run 2 BELLARW FLA 3

Bars above the line = West Florida leads, below = Bellarmine leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Bellarmine

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
63%17/27
2
33%9/27
45%9/20
3
43%9/21
44%7/16
4
90%9/10
10%1/10
5
62%8/13
31%4/13
6
53%8/15
27%3/11
All
51%55/107
42%41/97

West Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
44%7/16
2
52%11/21
35%6/17
3
69%9/13
65%17/26
4
90%9/10
53%10/19
5
64%9/14
31%4/13
6
32%7/22
50%8/16
All
58%56/97
49%52/107

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

204 rallies

#BELLAR-W FLASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1W FLAW FLA×3KillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+0.6
20-2W FLAW FLA×3KillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+0.5
30-3W FLAW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+0.4
41-3W FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+0.4
51-4BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.3
62-4W FLABELLAR×3KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.4
73-4BELLARBELLAR×3KillNatalie Blandset Abbie Lyttle+0.6
84-4BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Gabi Moulton+0.7
94-5BELLARW FLA×3Serve errBellarmine+0.5
104-6W FLAW FLA×3AceWest Floridaaced Abbie Lyttle+0.6
114-7W FLAW FLA×3KillGabi Moultonset Camryn Brooks+0.5
125-7W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida+0.4
136-7BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.6
146-8BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.5
157-8W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.6
167-9BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+0.5
178-9W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.6
188-10BELLARW FLA×3Serve errBellarmine+0.5
198-11W FLAW FLA×3KillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+0.6
208-12W FLAW FLA×3KillKaryna Werleyset Delaney Hanowell+0.5
219-12W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida+0.4
2210-12BELLARBELLARAttack errDelaney Hanowell+0.6
2310-13BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.5
2411-13W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.5
2511-14BELLARW FLA×3KillKumara Flanagainset Gabi Moulton+0.5
2611-15W FLAW FLA×3Attack errNatalie Bland+0.5
2711-16W FLAW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Gabi Moulton+0.4
2812-16W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida+0.3
2913-16BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.5
3013-17BELLARW FLAAttack errMya White+0.4
3114-17W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.4
3214-18BELLARW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+0.5
3315-18W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.4
3415-19BELLARW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+0.5
3515-20W FLAW FLA×3AceWest Floridaaced Ava Long+0.4
3615-21W FLAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Camryn Brooks+0.2
3716-21W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.1
3817-21BELLARBELLARAceBellarmineaced Camryn Brooks+0.2
3917-22BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+0.3
4018-22W FLABELLAR×8KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.2
4119-22BELLARBELLAR×8KillMady Yadenset Payton Parsons+0.4
4220-22BELLARBELLAR×8BlockedDelaney Hanowellblk Erika Smith+0.8
4321-22BELLARBELLAR×8AceBellarmineaced Emily Breazeale+1.4
4422-22BELLARBELLAR×8BlockedKaryna Werleyblk Mady Yaden+2.2
4523-22BELLARBELLAR×8BlockedKumara Flanagainblk Erika Smith, Mya White+3.3
4624-22BELLARBELLAR×8KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+3.9
4725-22BELLARBELLAR×8AceBellarmineaced Madison Joyner+2.9
Set 2
11-0BELLARBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.9
21-1BELLARW FLAKillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+1.4
32-1W FLABELLARAttack errKumara Flanagain+1.6
43-1BELLARBELLARAttack errGabi Moulton+2.2
53-2BELLARW FLA×9KillKumara Flanagainset Karyna Werley+1.6
63-3W FLAW FLA×9Bad setMya White+1.9
73-4W FLAW FLA×9BlockedNatalie Blandblk Aniston Cochran, Gabi Moulton+1.7
83-5W FLAW FLA×9KillAniston Cochran+1.5
93-6W FLAW FLA×9KillEmily Breazeale+1.2
103-7W FLAW FLA×9KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+1.0
113-8W FLAW FLA×9Attack errMya White+0.8
123-9W FLAW FLA×9KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+0.6
133-10W FLAW FLA×9AceWest Floridaaced Payton Parsons+0.4
144-10W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+0.3
155-10BELLARBELLARBlockedGabi Moultonblk Mary Herman, Natalie Bland+0.5
165-11BELLARW FLA×4KillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+0.5
175-12W FLAW FLA×4Attack errMary Herman+0.4
185-13W FLAW FLA×4Bad setAbbie Lyttle+0.3
195-14W FLAW FLA×4BlockedMaddie Carnesblk Delaney Hanowell, Emily Breazeale+0.2
206-14W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.1
216-15BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.1
227-15W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida+0.1
237-16BELLARW FLAAttack errMady Yaden+0.1
247-17W FLAW FLAAttack errErika Smith+0.1
258-17W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida·
268-18BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.1
279-18W FLABELLARBlockedKumara Flanagainblk Erika Smith, Mya White·
289-19BELLARW FLAKillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+0.1
2910-19W FLABELLAR×6KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes·
3011-19BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Emily Breazeale+0.1
3112-19BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Gabi Moulton+0.1
3213-19BELLARBELLAR×6KillNatalie Blandset Abbie Lyttle+0.2
3314-19BELLARBELLAR×6BlockedAniston Cochranblk Natalie Bland, Mary Herman+0.4
3415-19BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Kumara Flanagain+0.7
3515-20BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.8
3616-20W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.6
3716-21BELLARW FLA×3BlockedNatalie Blandblk Gabi Moulton, Aniston Cochran+0.8
3816-22W FLAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+0.5
3916-23W FLAW FLA×3KillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+0.2
4017-23W FLABELLARServe errWest Florida+0.1
4117-24BELLARW FLAKillGabi Moultonset Karyna Werley+0.1
4218-24W FLABELLARAttack errEmily Breazeale·
4319-24BELLARBELLARKillErika Smith+0.1
4419-25BELLARW FLAKillKaryna Werleyset Gabi Moulton+0.1
Set 3
10-1W FLAW FLAKillKennedy Plummerset Karyna Werley+1.3
21-1W FLABELLAR×3KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.2
32-1BELLARBELLAR×3KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.7
43-1BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errEmily Breazeale+1.9
53-2BELLARW FLAAttack errErika Smith+1.4
64-2W FLABELLARAttack errEmily Breazeale+1.7
74-3BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+1.4
85-3W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.7
95-4BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+1.5
106-4W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.8
117-4BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.4
127-5BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Gabi Moulton+1.7
137-6W FLAW FLAAceWest Floridaaced Ava Long+2.0
148-6W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.9
158-7BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+1.6
169-7W FLABELLAR×6KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.0
1710-7BELLARBELLAR×6Attack errEmily Breazeale+2.7
1811-7BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Kennedy Plummer+2.9
1912-7BELLARBELLAR×6KillMya White+3.0
2013-7BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Kennedy Plummer+2.9
2114-7BELLARBELLAR×6BlockedKumara Flanagainblk Erika Smith+2.7
2214-8BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+1.4
2314-9W FLAW FLABlockedErika Smithblk Aniston Cochran, Kumara Flanagain+2.1
2415-9W FLABELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Karyna Werley+2.5
2516-9BELLARBELLARKillErika Smithset Madalyn Mire+2.6
2616-10BELLARW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+1.3
2716-11W FLAW FLAKillEmily Breazeale+2.1
2817-11W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.5
2918-11BELLARBELLARAttack errEmily Breazeale+2.5
3018-12BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+1.2
3119-12W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.0
3219-13BELLARW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Gabi Moulton+1.1
3320-13W FLABELLARBlockedDelaney Hanowellblk Mary Herman+1.8
3420-14BELLARW FLAServe errBellarmine+0.9
3521-14W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.7
3622-14BELLARBELLARAttack errKaryna Werley+1.2
3722-15BELLARW FLA×5Serve errBellarmine+0.3
3822-16W FLAW FLA×5Attack errNatalie Bland+0.7
3922-17W FLAW FLA×5KillTalya Sampsonset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.1
4022-18W FLAW FLA×5KillTalya Sampsonset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.7
4122-19W FLAW FLA×5BlockedMaddie Carnesblk Talya Sampson+2.5
4223-19W FLABELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+3.6
4324-19BELLARBELLARBlockedTalya Sampsonblk Mya White, Erika Smith+2.6
4424-20BELLARW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Karyna Werley+0.5
4524-21W FLAW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.3
4625-21W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.6
Set 4
11-0BELLARBELLARKillErika Smithset Natalie Bland+3.6
21-1BELLARW FLAServe errAbbie Lyttle+2.6
31-2W FLAW FLABlockedNatalie Blandblk Delaney Hanowell, Karyna Werley+3.0
42-2W FLABELLARServe errMadison Joyner+2.7
52-3BELLARW FLA×3KillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+2.5
62-4W FLAW FLA×3Attack errNatalie Bland+2.7
72-5W FLAW FLA×3AceCamryn Brooksaced Mya White+2.3
83-5W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.0
93-6BELLARW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.9
103-7W FLAW FLA×3KillElizabeth Kwiatkowskiset Karyna Werley+2.0
113-8W FLAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+1.5
124-8W FLABELLARAttack errEmily Breazeale+1.2
134-9BELLARW FLAKillElizabeth Kwiatkowskiset Karyna Werley+1.2
144-10W FLAW FLAAttack errMary Herman+1.2
155-10W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.9
166-10BELLARBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.5
176-11BELLARW FLAServe errMary Herman+1.3
187-11W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.3
197-12BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+1.3
207-13W FLAW FLAKillTalya Sampsonset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.2
218-13W FLABELLARServe errElizabeth Kwiatkowski+0.9
228-14BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.0
239-14W FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.9
249-15BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.0
259-16W FLAW FLABlockedNatalie Blandblk Karyna Werley, Aniston Cochran+0.8
2610-16W FLABELLAR×3KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.5
2711-16BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errAniston Cochran+1.0
2812-16BELLARBELLAR×3AceAva Longaced Emily Breazeale+1.6
2912-17BELLARW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+1.5
3012-18W FLAW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+1.3
3112-19W FLAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+0.7
3213-19W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.4
3313-20BELLARW FLAKillElizabeth Kwiatkowskiset Karyna Werley+0.5
3414-20W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.3
3514-21BELLARW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+0.5
3614-22W FLAW FLAAttack errErika Smith+0.3
3715-22W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.1
3816-22BELLARBELLARAttack errTalya Sampson+0.2
3916-23BELLARW FLAKillDelaney Hanowellset Karyna Werley+0.3
4017-23W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.1
4117-24BELLARW FLABad setPayton Parsons+0.2
4218-24W FLABELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes·
4318-25BELLARW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+0.7
Set 5
11-0BELLARBELLARAceMaddie Carnesaced Madison Joyner+7.3
21-1BELLARW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+5.3
31-2W FLAW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+6.2
41-3W FLAW FLA×3KillKaryna Werleyset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+5.3
52-3W FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+4.5
62-4BELLARW FLA×3KillAniston Cochranset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+4.4
72-5W FLAW FLA×3Attack errNatalie Bland+4.6
82-6W FLAW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+3.5
93-6W FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.6
103-7BELLARW FLAKillEmily Breazealeset Karyna Werley+2.9
113-8W FLAW FLAAttack errMary Herman+2.6
124-8W FLABELLARServe errMadalyn Mire+1.7
134-9BELLARW FLAKillAniston Cochranset Karyna Werley+2.0
145-9W FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.6
156-9BELLARBELLARAttack errElizabeth Kwiatkowski+3.2
166-10BELLARW FLAServe errNatalie Bland+3.2
177-10W FLABELLARAttack errMary Herman+2.6
187-11BELLARW FLAServe errMary Herman+3.2
198-11W FLABELLARServe errMadison Joyner+2.4
208-12BELLARW FLABlockedMady Yadenblk Delaney Hanowell, Karyna Werley+3.2
219-12W FLABELLARBad setEmily Breazeale+2.2
229-13BELLARW FLA×3KillEmily Breazealeset Elizabeth Kwiatkowski+3.1
239-14W FLAW FLA×3KillElizabeth Kwiatkowskiset Karyna Werley+1.7
249-15W FLAW FLA×3Attack errErika Smith+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Bellarmine first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).