FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwaySUMMIT-LEAGUE

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Wyoming def. St. Thomas (MN) 3–0

(25-20, 25-21, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STTHOM	20	21	17	0
WYO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WYO above 50 · STTHOM below

Biggest swing: 4.6% to Wyoming — set 2, STTHOM 21-23 WYO. Attack error by Anya Schmidt. WYO win probability 84% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STTHOM 32.2%67.8% WYO

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0

6.3%

3-1

11.4%

3-2

14.5%

Wyoming wins

3-0

21.8%

3-1

26.0%

3-2

20.0%

STTHOM break %: 41.0% vs this opp
WYO break %: 44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Anya SchmidtAttack error+4.6%
Attack error by Anya Schmidt
Set 2 · STTHOM 21-23 WYO · WYO 84% → 89%
02
Paige LauterwasserKill+3.8%
Kill by Paige Lauterwasser (set by Sara Quigley)
Set 1 · STTHOM 16-17 WYO · WYO 66% → 70%
03
Emma WinterKill+3.7%
Kill by Emma Winter (set by Sara Quigley)
Set 2 · STTHOM 21-22 WYO · WYO 81% → 84%
04
Reilly KurthKill+3.7%
Kill by Reilly Kurth (set by Morgan Kealy)
Set 2 · STTHOM 19-19 WYO · STTHOM 16% → 19%
05
WYO serverAce+3.6%
Wyoming ace on Anya Schmidt
Set 1 · STTHOM 16-18 WYO · WYO 70% → 73%
06
WYO serverService error+3.3%
Wyoming service error
Set 2 · STTHOM 21-21 WYO · STTHOM 16% → 19%
07
Reagan SharpKill+3.3%
Kill by Reagan Sharp (set by Maddy Stucky)
Set 2 · STTHOM 20-21 WYO · WYO 81% → 84%
08
Emma WinterKill+3.2%
Kill by Emma Winter (set by Sara Quigley)
Set 1 · STTHOM 17-20 WYO · WYO 73% → 77%

Official NCAA box

Box score

St. Thomas (MN)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
24Audrey KoconOH	3	9	3	23	.261	0	1	3	4	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
11Anya SchmidtOH	3	9	8	30	.033	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	10
22Addie SchmotzerMB	3	6	0	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	8.5
21Reilly KurthMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
5Morgan KealyS	3	1	1	4	.000	31	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	1
6Kira BrundageL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
7Ellie GustafsonOH	3	5	2	20	.150	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	5
3Taylor McNearL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	10	2	0	0	0	0
2Bryn LunskiOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Emory BrosnahanOH	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team totals		39	15	103	.233	33	4	9	31	5	2	2	3	58

Wyominghome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Paige LauterwasserOH	3	13	1	20	.600	2	1	2	7	0	0	0	0	14
9Emma WinterOH	3	12	0	17	.706	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
57Rylee HeinzMB	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
12Addy ThoringtonOH	3	4	2	15	.133	0	0	3	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
17Sara QuigleyS	3	0	0	1	.000	19	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
2Anna MelgrenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
16Reagan SharpOH	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
6Ruby JensenMB	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Rya FingerlinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	15	1	0	0	0	2
5Maddy StuckyS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	7	87	.437	41	5	8	38	4	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 STTHOM · WYO 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 STTHOMWYO 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 STTHOMWYO 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 4 STTHOMWYO 5

Bars above the line = Wyoming leads, below = St. Thomas (MN) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

St. Thomas (MN)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	36%4/11
2	44%7/16	33%4/12
3	67%6/9	30%3/10
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	50%6/12	33%3/9
6	45%5/11	33%3/9
All	52%38/73	33%20/60

Wyoming

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	54%7/13
2	58%7/12	50%7/14
3	78%7/9	50%7/14
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	86%6/7	60%9/15
All	67%40/60	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	STTHOM-WYO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+1.6
2	1-1	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
3	1-2	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+1.6
4	2-2	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
5	3-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+2.4
6	3-3	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.7
7	4-3	WYO	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.9
8	5-3	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Addy Thorington		+2.6
9	6-3	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.6
10	6-4	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Ruby Jensen	set Maddy Stucky	+1.7
11	7-4	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.0
12	7-5	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Maddy Stucky	+1.8
13	8-5	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+2.0
14	8-6	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.8
15	9-6	WYO	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Rylee Heinz	blk Addie Schmotzer	+2.1
16	10-6	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser	blk Addie Schmotzer, Audrey Kocon	+2.7
17	11-6	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Rylee Heinz		+2.4
18	11-7	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+1.5
19	12-7	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+1.9
20	12-8	STTHOM	WYO×5	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.5
21	12-9	WYO	WYO×5	Kill	Emma Winter		+2.3
22	12-10	WYO	WYO×5	Kill	Emma Winter		+2.7
23	12-11	WYO	WYO×5	Ace	WYO server	aced Taylor McNear	+2.9
24	12-12	WYO	WYO×5	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+3.1
25	13-12	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
26	13-13	STTHOM	WYO	Attack err	Anya Schmidt	blk Emma Winter, Ruby Jensen	+2.4
27	14-13	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.6
28	14-14	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Maddy Stucky	+2.5
29	15-14	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.7
30	15-15	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+2.6
31	16-15	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+2.9
32	16-16	STTHOM	WYO×3	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+2.7
33	16-17	WYO	WYO×3	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+3.8
34	16-18	WYO	WYO×3	Ace	WYO server	aced Anya Schmidt	+3.6
35	17-18	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
36	17-19	STTHOM	WYO×3	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.8
37	17-20	WYO	WYO×3	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+3.2
38	17-21	WYO	WYO×3	Bad set	Morgan Kealy		+2.4
39	18-21	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+1.2
40	19-21	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Kira Brundage	+2.5
41	19-22	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.6
42	19-23	WYO	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Rya Fingerlin	+2.2
43	20-23	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.8
44	20-24	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.5
45	20-25	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Anya Schmidt	blk Ruby Jensen, Reagan Sharp	+0.6
Set 2
1	0-1	WYO	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+1.8
2	1-1	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.4
3	1-2	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+1.4
4	2-2	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.4
5	3-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.0
6	3-3	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+1.5
7	4-3	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Taylor McNear	+1.6
8	4-4	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Paige Lauterwasser	+1.5
9	5-4	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.6
10	6-4	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Reagan Sharp		+2.2
11	6-5	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+1.5
12	7-5	WYO	STTHOM×3	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
13	8-5	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Rya Fingerlin	+2.3
14	9-5	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+2.2
15	9-6	STTHOM	WYO×4	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Maddy Stucky	+1.4
16	9-7	WYO	WYO×4	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Rylee Heinz, Reagan Sharp	+2.1
17	9-8	WYO	WYO×4	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Rya Fingerlin	+2.3
18	9-9	WYO	WYO×4	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.3
19	10-9	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+1.9
20	11-9	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth		+2.6
21	11-10	STTHOM	WYO×4	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.8
22	11-11	WYO	WYO×4	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+2.5
23	11-12	WYO	WYO×4	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+2.5
24	11-13	WYO	WYO×4	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+2.4
25	12-13	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
26	12-14	STTHOM	WYO	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+1.8
27	13-14	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
28	13-15	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Sara Quigley	+1.9
29	13-16	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+2.3
30	14-16	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.5
31	14-17	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+1.8
32	14-18	WYO	WYO	Kill	Ruby Jensen	set Maddy Stucky	+1.9
33	15-18	WYO	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.1
34	16-18	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Addy Thorington		+2.1
35	17-18	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.8
36	17-19	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Ruby Jensen	set Maddy Stucky	+2.4
37	18-19	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+2.2
38	19-19	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+3.7
39	19-20	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+2.9
40	20-20	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+3.0
41	20-21	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+3.3
42	21-21	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+3.3
43	21-22	STTHOM	WYO×4	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+3.7
44	21-23	WYO	WYO×4	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+4.6
45	21-24	WYO	WYO×4	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Addy Thorington, Rylee Heinz	+3.1
46	21-25	WYO	WYO×4	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Paige Lauterwasser	+1.2
Set 3
1	0-1	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.8
2	0-2	WYO	WYO	Ace	WYO server	aced Ellie Gustafson	+1.0
3	1-2	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+0.8
4	1-3	STTHOM	WYO	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.8
5	1-4	WYO	WYO	Ace	WYO server	aced Ellie Gustafson	+1.0
6	2-4	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+0.7
7	3-4	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Morgan Kealy	+1.0
8	3-5	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.8
9	3-6	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Anya Schmidt	blk Ruby Jensen, Reagan Sharp	+1.0
10	4-6	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.7
11	5-6	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+1.1
12	5-7	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+0.8
13	5-8	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Morgan Kealy		+1.1
14	6-8	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+0.7
15	6-9	STTHOM	WYO×5	Kill	Ruby Jensen	set Maddy Stucky	+0.8
16	6-10	WYO	WYO×5	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.9
17	6-11	WYO	WYO×5	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Maddy Stucky	+0.8
18	6-12	WYO	WYO×5	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Rya Fingerlin	+0.6
19	6-13	WYO	WYO×5	Ace	WYO server	aced Taylor McNear	+0.5
20	7-13	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.3
21	7-14	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Maddy Stucky	+0.3
22	7-15	WYO	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+0.3
23	8-15	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
24	9-15	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth		+0.3
25	9-16	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+0.3
26	9-17	WYO	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Sara Quigley	+0.3
27	10-17	WYO	STTHOM×4	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
28	11-17	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Addie Schmotzer		+0.3
29	12-17	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
30	13-17	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Attack err	Rylee Heinz	blk Addie Schmotzer	+0.6
31	13-18	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.6
32	14-18	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
33	14-19	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.6
34	15-19	WYO	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
35	15-20	STTHOM	WYO	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.6
36	15-21	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Reagan Sharp	+0.5
37	16-21	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+0.2
38	16-22	STTHOM	WYO×3	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+0.3
39	16-23	WYO	WYO×3	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Maddy Stucky	+0.2
40	16-24	WYO	WYO×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.1
41	17-24	WYO	STTHOM	Serve err	WYO server		+0.0
42	17-25	STTHOM	WYO	Kill	Reagan Sharp	set Maddy Stucky	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, St. Thomas (MN) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.