FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayPAC-12

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Colorado St. def. Wyoming 3–0

(25-18, 25-14, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CO ST	25	25	25	3
WYO	18	14	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WYO above 50 · CO ST below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Colorado St. — set 1, CO ST 1-0 WYO. Kill by Kekua Richards (set by Erin Debiec). WYO win probability 8% → 7%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CO ST 91.7%8.3% WYO

Colorado St. wins

3-0

47.6%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

12.8%

Wyoming wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.5%

3-2

4.8%

CO ST break %: 47.4% vs this opp
WYO break %: 36.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kekua RichardsKill+0.9%
Kill by Kekua Richards (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · CO ST 1-0 WYO · CO ST 92% → 93%
02
Halle JamesonKill+0.8%
Kill by Halle Jameson (set by Sofia Zabjek)
Set 1 · CO ST 2-0 WYO · CO ST 93% → 93%
03
Kekua RichardsKill+0.6%
Kill by Kekua Richards (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · CO ST 3-0 WYO · CO ST 93% → 94%
04
WYO serverAce+0.6%
Wyoming ace on Karsyn Fetzer
Set 1 · CO ST 15-12 WYO · WYO 5% → 6%
05
Sara QuigleyKill+0.6%
Kill by Sara Quigley (set by Rya Fingerlin)
Set 2 · CO ST 2-2 WYO · WYO 3% → 4%
06
Emma WinterKill+0.6%
Kill by Emma Winter (set by Rya Fingerlin)
Set 1 · CO ST 13-10 WYO · WYO 5% → 6%
07
CO ST serverAce+0.6%
Colorado St. ace on Peyton Carruth
Set 2 · CO ST 6-4 WYO · CO ST 96% → 97%
08
Halle JamesonKill+0.5%
Kill by Halle Jameson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · CO ST 17-13 WYO · CO ST 94% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Colorado St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Halle JamesonOH	3	15	2	29	.448	0	0	0	10	1	1	1	1.5	16.5
27Eve WilsonMB	3	8	1	15	.467	0	2	2	2	0	2	6	5	15
33Kekua RichardsMB	3	9	1	16	.500	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	3	12
5Sofia ZabjekOH	3	4	0	10	.400	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
23Erin DebiecS	3	3	1	7	.286	41	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
26Maria BrunOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	5	0	0	0	0	3
21Ella StowellOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
1Karsyn FetzerL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	0	0	9	1	0	0	0	1
24Hayden GrimesL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
17Sophie StephensonOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	9	101	.396	45	5	3	44	2	6	16	14	75

Wyominghome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
57Rylee HeinzMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
9Emma WinterOH	3	7	1	12	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
11Anna WilliamsMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	2	7
14Paige LauterwasserOH	3	4	6	17	-.118	3	0	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
17Sara QuigleyS	3	2	0	2	1.000	17	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	3
7Emerson MaciasOH	3	2	5	17	-.176	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
3Peyton CarruthL/DS	3	1	0	4	.250	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	2
5Maddy StuckyS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Rya FingerlinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	9	3	0	0	0	0
12Addy ThoringtonOH	2	5	4	16	.063	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
18Kristina BozovicOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
8Abi MilbyOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Anna MelgrenL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	18	97	.155	32	2	3	31	5	3	4	5	47

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 CO ST · WYO 3

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 7 CO STWYO 3

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 6 CO STWYO 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 6 CO STWYO 3

Bars above the line = Wyoming leads, below = Colorado St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Colorado St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	72%13/18
2	75%6/8	50%6/12
3	67%6/9	45%5/11
4	100%6/6	25%2/8
5	60%6/10	63%10/16
6	63%5/8	44%4/9
All	73%35/48	54%40/74

Wyoming

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%6/18	38%3/8
2	67%6/9	25%2/8
3	60%6/10	14%1/7
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	46%6/13	25%2/8
6	31%4/13	25%2/8
All	46%34/74	27%13/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	CO ST-WYO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.9
2	2-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Sofia Zabjek	+0.8
3	3-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
4	4-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Ace	CO ST server	aced Rya Fingerlin	+0.5
5	5-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
6	6-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser		+0.3
7	7-0	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Emerson Macias	blk Halle Jameson	+0.2
8	7-1	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
9	8-1	WYO	CO ST	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser	blk Sofia Zabjek, Kekua Richards	+0.2
10	8-2	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
11	8-3	WYO	WYO	Kill	Anna Williams	set Sara Quigley	+0.3
12	9-3	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
13	10-3	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Karsyn Fetzer	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
14	10-4	CO ST	WYO×3	Kill	Anna Williams	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
15	10-5	WYO	WYO×3	Kill	Peyton Carruth	set Maddy Stucky	+0.3
16	10-6	WYO	WYO×3	Kill	Anna Williams	set Maddy Stucky	+0.4
17	11-6	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
18	11-7	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Kristina Bozovic	set Maddy Stucky	+0.3
19	12-7	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.3
20	12-8	CO ST	WYO	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.3
21	13-8	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
22	13-9	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Maddy Stucky	+0.3
23	13-10	WYO	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Rya Fingerlin	+0.6
24	14-10	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
25	15-10	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
26	15-11	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.3
27	15-12	WYO	WYO	Ace	WYO server	aced Karsyn Fetzer	+0.6
28	16-12	WYO	CO ST	Serve err	WYO server		+0.5
29	16-13	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.5
30	17-13	WYO	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
31	18-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.5
32	19-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
33	19-14	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
34	19-15	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Eve Wilson	blk Paige Lauterwasser, Anna Williams	+0.4
35	20-15	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
36	21-15	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
37	21-16	CO ST	WYO	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.1
38	22-16	WYO	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
39	23-16	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Emerson Macias	+0.1
40	24-16	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser	blk Kekua Richards	+0.0
41	24-17	CO ST	WYO	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.0
42	24-18	WYO	WYO	Kill	Emerson Macias	set Maddy Stucky	+0.0
43	25-18	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
2	2-0	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Emerson Macias	blk Sofia Zabjek, Eve Wilson	+0.5
3	2-1	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.4
4	2-2	WYO	WYO	Kill	Sara Quigley	set Rya Fingerlin	+0.6
5	3-2	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
6	3-3	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Sara Quigley	+0.5
7	4-3	WYO	CO ST	Serve err	WYO server		+0.5
8	4-4	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+0.5
9	5-4	WYO	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
10	6-4	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Peyton Carruth	+0.6
11	7-4	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser	blk Ella Stowell	+0.5
12	7-5	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Paige Lauterwasser	+0.4
13	8-5	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
14	8-6	CO ST	WYO	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.4
15	9-6	WYO	CO ST	Serve err	WYO server		+0.4
16	9-7	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Maddy Stucky	+0.4
17	10-7	WYO	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
18	11-7	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Emma Winter	blk Eve Wilson	+0.4
19	12-7	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Emerson Macias	blk Eve Wilson, Sofia Zabjek	+0.3
20	13-7	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Rylee Heinz	blk Eve Wilson, Sofia Zabjek	+0.2
21	13-8	CO ST	WYO	Attack err	Halle Jameson		+0.1
22	14-8	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
23	15-8	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson		+0.2
24	15-9	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.1
25	16-9	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
26	16-10	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Anna Williams	set Sara Quigley	+0.1
27	17-10	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.1
28	18-10	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
29	18-11	CO ST	WYO×3	Attack err	Kekua Richards	blk Anna Williams	+0.0
30	18-12	WYO	WYO×3	Attack err	Ella Stowell	blk Anna Williams, Addy Thorington	+0.1
31	18-13	WYO	WYO×3	Attack err	Erin Debiec		+0.2
32	19-13	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
33	19-14	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Maddy Stucky	+0.1
34	20-14	WYO	CO ST×6	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
35	21-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
36	22-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Rylee Heinz	blk Kekua Richards	+0.0
37	23-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Ace	CO ST server	aced Rya Fingerlin	+0.0
38	24-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Addy Thorington		+0.0
39	25-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Addy Thorington	blk Halle Jameson, Kekua Richards	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
2	1-1	WYO	CO ST	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser		+0.2
3	2-1	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
4	2-2	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
5	3-2	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
6	4-2	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Paige Lauterwasser	blk Eve Wilson, Sofia Zabjek	+0.2
7	4-3	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emma Winter	set Paige Lauterwasser	+0.2
8	5-3	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
9	6-3	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
10	6-4	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Emerson Macias	set Maddy Stucky	+0.2
11	7-4	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
12	7-5	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Maddy Stucky	+0.2
13	7-6	WYO	WYO	Attack err	Ella Stowell	blk Addy Thorington	+0.3
14	8-6	WYO	CO ST×3	Attack err	Addy Thorington	blk Eve Wilson, Ella Stowell	+0.2
15	9-6	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
16	10-6	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Maddy Stucky	+0.2
17	10-7	CO ST	WYO×3	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.1
18	10-8	WYO	WYO×3	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Rylee Heinz	+0.2
19	10-9	WYO	WYO×3	Ace	WYO server	aced Halle Jameson	+0.3
20	11-9	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
21	11-10	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Sara Quigley	set Paige Lauterwasser	+0.2
22	12-10	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
23	13-10	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
24	13-11	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Rylee Heinz	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
25	14-11	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
26	14-12	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Anna Williams	set Sara Quigley	+0.2
27	15-12	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
28	15-13	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Maddy Stucky	+0.2
29	16-13	WYO	CO ST×6	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
30	17-13	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
31	18-13	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Emerson Macias		+0.2
32	19-13	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Emerson Macias	blk Eve Wilson	+0.1
33	20-13	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
34	21-13	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Addy Thorington	blk Erin Debiec, Eve Wilson	+0.0
35	21-14	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Addy Thorington	set Sara Quigley	+0.0
36	22-14	WYO	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
37	23-14	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Rya Fingerlin	+0.0
38	24-14	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
39	24-15	CO ST	WYO	Kill	Paige Lauterwasser	set Sara Quigley	+0.0
40	25-15	WYO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Colorado St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.