FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomePAC-12

Oregon St. def. California Baptist 3–0

(25-14, 25-19, 25-19)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
CALBAP	14	19	19	0
ORE ST	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ORE ST above 50 · CALBAP below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to California Baptist — set 1, CALBAP 4-5 ORE ST. Kill by Audrey Heiring (set by Yasemin Narlioglu). ORE ST win probability 95% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALBAP 5.7%94.3% ORE ST

California Baptist wins

3-0

0.7%

3-1

1.6%

3-2

3.4%

Oregon St. wins

3-0

53.5%

3-1

30.2%

3-2

10.6%

CALBAP break %: 38.9% vs this opp
ORE ST break %: 51.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Audrey HeiringKill+0.6%
Kill by Audrey Heiring (set by Yasemin Narlioglu)
Set 1 · CALBAP 4-5 ORE ST · CALBAP 5% → 5%
02
Nalanie NealAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Nalanie Neal
Set 1 · CALBAP 0-1 ORE ST · ORE ST 94% → 95%
03
Taylor TreahyAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Taylor Treahy
Set 2 · CALBAP 8-8 ORE ST · CALBAP 3% → 3%
04
Taylor TreahyAttack error+0.5%
Taylor Treahy stuffed by Eleftheria Baxa
Set 1 · CALBAP 1-1 ORE ST · CALBAP 5% → 6%
05
Eleftheria BaxaAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Eleftheria Baxa
Set 1 · CALBAP 1-3 ORE ST · ORE ST 95% → 95%
06
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.5%
Point California Baptist (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · CALBAP 3-2 ORE ST · CALBAP 3% → 3%
07
ORE ST serverAce+0.5%
Oregon St. ace on Nalanie Neal
Set 1 · CALBAP 4-7 ORE ST · ORE ST 95% → 96%
08
AC FroehlichKill+0.5%
Kill by AC Froehlich (set by Jackie Matias)
Set 1 · CALBAP 1-2 ORE ST · ORE ST 94% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

California Baptistaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Audrey HeiringOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	1	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
23Nalanie NealOH	3	7	8	24	-.042	0	0	0	7	3	1	0	1	8
13Eleftheria BaxaOH	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	1	6
5Bella BreuerMB	3	4	4	13	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
17Daria ChekhovskikhMB	3	4	3	13	.077	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5
7Avery BarberS	3	1	0	1	1.000	18	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	2
3Devyn MasiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
22Jagoda BialekL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	9	3	0	0	0	0
14Maria ContrerasS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Samantha BaileyOPP	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Anaiya CampbellOH	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
8Filippa BotcherMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	24	93	.054	27	3	3	36	10	3	2	4	52

Oregon St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3AC FroehlichOH	3	13	0	23	.565	1	3	0	6	1	2	0	2	18
15Cheyenne GreenOH	3	9	3	24	.250	0	2	1	3	1	0	2	1	12
29Taylor TreahyOH	3	5	4	14	.071	0	1	2	7	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
1Alana MarrsMB	3	5	0	12	.417	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	7
19Ivana CvetkovicMB	3	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	4	5
14Jackie MatiasS	3	1	1	6	.000	26	1	4	5	0	0	2	1	3
16Beatrice SpadaOPP	3	4	1	8	.375	2	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Isabel BertelsenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	8	1	0	0	0	2
5Kama GoldsteinDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Yasemin NarliogluL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	10	93	.301	36	10	9	38	3	6	12	12	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CALBAP · ORE ST 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 CALBAPORE ST 5

Set 2*

19-25

Longest run 5 CALBAPORE ST 6

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 CALBAPORE ST 4

Bars above the line = Oregon St. leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California Baptist

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%4/9	50%3/6
2	40%4/10	0%0/4
3	25%3/12	56%5/9
4	38%3/8	50%3/6
5	43%3/7	0%0/3
6	75%3/4	40%2/5
All	40%20/50	39%13/33

Oregon St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%4/4	56%5/9
2	44%4/9	60%6/10
3	50%3/6	75%9/12
4	100%3/3	63%5/8
5	60%3/5	57%4/7
6	50%3/6	25%1/4
All	61%20/33	60%30/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	CALBAP-ORE ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.6
2	1-1	ORE ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Eleftheria Baxa	+0.5
3	1-2	CALBAP	ORE ST×4	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
4	1-3	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa		+0.5
5	1-4	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Attack err	Audrey Heiring	blk Taylor Treahy	+0.5
6	1-5	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Jagoda Bialek	+0.4
7	2-5	ORE ST	CALBAP×3	Kill	Daria Chekhovskikh	set Avery Barber	+0.3
8	3-5	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.5
9	4-5	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.6
10	4-6	CALBAP	ORE ST×5	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.5
11	4-7	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Nalanie Neal	+0.5
12	4-8	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Kill	Jackie Matias	set Taylor Treahy	+0.4
13	4-9	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Attack err	Bella Breuer		+0.3
14	4-10	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
15	5-10	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.2
16	5-11	CALBAP	ORE ST×5	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.2
17	5-12	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.2
18	5-13	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Team	+0.1
19	5-14	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
20	5-15	ORE ST	ORE ST×5	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Jagoda Bialek	+0.0
21	6-15	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.0
22	6-16	CALBAP	ORE ST×3	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
23	6-17	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Samantha Bailey		+0.0
24	6-18	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Nalanie Neal	blk Ivana Cvetkovic	+0.0
25	7-18	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Maria Contreras	+0.0
26	8-18	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Jackie Matias		+0.0
27	8-19	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
28	9-19	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Maria Contreras	+0.0
29	10-19	CALBAP	CALBAP	Bad set	Jackie Matias		+0.0
30	10-20	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.0
31	10-21	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
32	11-21	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.0
33	11-22	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Ivana Cvetkovic	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
34	11-23	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+0.0
35	12-23	ORE ST	CALBAP×3	Kill	Avery Barber	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.0
36	13-23	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Ace	CALBAP server	aced AC Froehlich	+0.0
37	14-23	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.0
38	14-24	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.0
39	14-25	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell	blk Alana Marrs, Jackie Matias	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	CALBAP	CALBAP	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Cheyenne Green	+0.5
2	1-1	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
3	1-2	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh		+0.4
4	2-2	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+0.4
5	3-2	CALBAP	CALBAP	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
6	3-3	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.4
7	4-3	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.5
8	4-4	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
9	4-5	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Isabel Bertelsen	+0.5
10	5-5	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.4
11	5-6	CALBAP	ORE ST×3	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
12	5-7	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
13	5-8	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Bella Breuer		+0.3
14	6-8	ORE ST	CALBAP×3	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Maria Contreras	+0.3
15	7-8	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Maria Contreras	+0.5
16	8-8	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Taylor Treahy		+0.6
17	8-9	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
18	9-9	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.5
19	9-10	CALBAP	ORE ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.4
20	9-11	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal	blk Ivana Cvetkovic	+0.5
21	10-11	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Daria Chekhovskikh	set Maria Contreras	+0.4
22	10-12	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Taylor Treahy	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
23	10-13	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh		+0.4
24	11-13	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+0.4
25	11-14	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.4
26	11-15	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa	blk AC Froehlich	+0.3
27	12-15	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.3
28	12-16	CALBAP	ORE ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.3
29	13-16	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+0.3
30	13-17	CALBAP	ORE ST×6	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.3
31	13-18	ORE ST	ORE ST×6	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Maria Contreras	+0.3
32	13-19	ORE ST	ORE ST×6	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Devyn Masi	+0.2
33	13-20	ORE ST	ORE ST×6	Attack err	Audrey Heiring	blk Cheyenne Green, Ivana Cvetkovic	+0.1
34	13-21	ORE ST	ORE ST×6	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
35	13-22	ORE ST	ORE ST×6	Attack err	Bella Breuer	blk Ivana Cvetkovic, Jackie Matias	+0.0
36	14-22	ORE ST	CALBAP×5	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.0
37	15-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×5	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+0.0
38	16-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×5	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Devyn Masi	+0.0
39	17-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×5	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Isabel Bertelsen	+0.1
40	18-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×5	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+0.1
41	18-23	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.2
42	19-23	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.1
43	19-24	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
44	19-25	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal	blk Ivana Cvetkovic, Beatrice Spada	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ORE ST	ORE ST	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Devyn Masi	+0.2
2	0-2	ORE ST	ORE ST	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Devyn Masi	+0.2
3	1-2	ORE ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Taylor Treahy	blk Nalanie Neal	+0.1
4	1-3	CALBAP	ORE ST×3	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.1
5	1-4	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh	blk Alana Marrs	+0.1
6	1-5	ORE ST	ORE ST×3	Kill	Jackie Matias	set AC Froehlich	+0.1
7	2-5	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Daria Chekhovskikh	set Avery Barber	+0.1
8	3-5	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Cheyenne Green		+0.1
9	3-6	CALBAP	ORE ST×4	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.1
10	3-7	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.1
11	3-8	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
12	3-9	ORE ST	ORE ST×4	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Beatrice Spada	+0.1
13	4-9	ORE ST	CALBAP	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.1
14	4-10	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Alana Marrs	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
15	5-10	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.1
16	5-11	CALBAP	ORE ST	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+0.1
17	5-12	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa	blk Ivana Cvetkovic, Cheyenne Green	+0.1
18	6-12	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.0
19	6-13	CALBAP	ORE ST	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.0
20	6-14	ORE ST	ORE ST	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Nalanie Neal	+0.0
21	7-14	ORE ST	CALBAP	Attack err	Beatrice Spada	blk Audrey Heiring, Bella Breuer	+0.0
22	7-15	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Beatrice Spada	set Yasemin Narlioglu	+0.0
23	8-15	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Bella Breuer	set Avery Barber	+0.0
24	8-16	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
25	9-16	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.0
26	9-17	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Beatrice Spada	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
27	9-18	ORE ST	ORE ST	Kill	Beatrice Spada	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
28	10-18	ORE ST	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Isabel Bertelsen	+0.0
29	11-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.0
30	12-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Daria Chekhovskikh	set Avery Barber	+0.0
31	13-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.1
32	13-19	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	AC Froehlich	set Jackie Matias	+0.1
33	13-20	ORE ST	ORE ST	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Jagoda Bialek	+0.0
34	14-20	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.0
35	14-21	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Beatrice Spada	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
36	14-22	ORE ST	ORE ST	Ace	ORE ST server	aced Nalanie Neal	+0.0
37	15-22	ORE ST	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.0
38	16-22	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Cheyenne Green		+0.0
39	16-23	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Jackie Matias	+0.0
40	17-23	ORE ST	CALBAP×3	Serve err	ORE ST server		+0.0
41	18-23	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Cheyenne Green	blk Bella Breuer	+0.0
42	19-23	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Ivana Cvetkovic		+0.0
43	19-24	CALBAP	ORE ST	Kill	Cheyenne Green	set Beatrice Spada	+0.1
44	19-25	ORE ST	ORE ST	Attack err	Bella Breuer	blk AC Froehlich	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.