CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026

Northern Ariz. def. California Baptist 31

(25-15, 20-25, 25-8, 30-28)
Set1234Sets
CALBAP15258281
NAU252025303

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NAU above 50 · CALBAP below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100NAUCALBAPBiggest swing +9.7% NAU · S4 24-24rally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Northern Ariz. — set 4, CALBAP 24-24 NAU. Bad set by Maddie Brown. NAU win probability 75%85%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALBAP 16.3%83.7% NAU

California Baptist wins

3-0
2.5%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
8.6%

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0
35.5%
3-1
31.1%
3-2
17.1%
CALBAP break %
39.5% vs this opp
NAU break %
47.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Maddie BrownBad set+9.7%

    Bad set by Maddie Brown

    Set 4 · CALBAP 24-24 NAU · NAU 75%85%

  2. 02
    Eleftheria BaxaAttack error+8.2%

    Attack error by Eleftheria Baxa

    Set 4 · CALBAP 24-25 NAU · NAU 85%93%

  3. 03
    Masina PerezKill+6.9%

    Kill by Masina Perez (set by Taryn Davis)

    Set 4 · CALBAP 28-30 NAU · NAU 93%100%

  4. 04
    CALBAP serverAce+6.6%

    California Baptist ace on Kate Federico

    Set 4 · CALBAP 23-21 NAU · CALBAP 19%26%

  5. 05

    Kill by Anaiya Campbell (set by Maddie Brown)

    Set 4 · CALBAP 25-25 NAU · CALBAP 7%13%

  6. 06

    Kill by Avery Gottschalk (set by Ella Hosfeld)

    Set 4 · CALBAP 25-26 NAU · NAU 87%93%

  7. 07

    Kill by Anaiya Campbell (set by Maddie Brown)

    Set 4 · CALBAP 26-26 NAU · CALBAP 7%13%

  8. 08
    Quincey CoyleKill+6.1%

    Kill by Quincey Coyle (set by Ella Hosfeld)

    Set 4 · CALBAP 26-27 NAU · NAU 87%93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414739.17910218000014
48529.103010800009
43412-.08311200174.58.5
43111.182290170031.54.5
4001.000002800000
3117.000000000001
43621-.143100200003
4000011830001
34614-.143120620006
3000000500000
21011.000300000423
1304.750000000003
11011.000100000001
1022-1.000000100000
1000200200000
Team totals4132142.0633958658114876
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413133.3640046102114
48119.3682003026513
49831.032131201010.512.5
48013.61500100052.510.5
44012.33300000073.57.5
4013-.3332502600000
45417.05900010010.55.5
40000511410005
40001601700000
4000101020000
1107.143000200001
1013-.333000000000
Team totals4816138.2324581159522213100

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 CALBAP · NAU 9

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 CALBAPNAU 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 8 CALBAPNAU 8

Set 3

8-25

Longest run 2 CALBAPNAU 9

Set 4

28-30

Longest run 4 CALBAPNAU 4

Bars above the line = Northern Ariz. leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California Baptist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
36%8/22
33%4/12
2
33%8/24
38%5/13
3
89%8/9
27%3/11
4
62%8/13
58%11/19
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
37%7/19
11%1/9
All
47%47/99
38%29/77

Northern Ariz.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
71%17/24
2
53%8/15
69%18/26
3
89%8/9
33%4/12
4
38%8/21
33%4/12
5
73%8/11
20%2/10
6
80%8/10
47%7/15
All
62%48/77
53%52/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

176 rallies

Rally log

#CALBAP-NAUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NAUCALBAPAttack errTaryn Davis+1.2
21-1CALBAPNAU×4Attack errMaddie Brown+1.1
31-2NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.4
41-3NAUNAU×4Attack errEleftheria Baxa+1.3
51-4NAUNAU×4Attack errAudrey Heiring+1.2
62-4NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.9
72-5CALBAPNAUAttack errAnaiya Campbell+0.9
83-5NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.9
93-6CALBAPNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Quincey Coyle+0.9
103-7NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Lilly Holmes+1.1
114-7NAUCALBAPAttack errQuincey Coyle+0.8
125-7CALBAPCALBAPAttack errQuincey Coyleblk Maddie Brown, Filippa Botcher+1.2
135-8CALBAPNAUAttack errFilippa Botcher+1.0
146-8NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+1.0
156-9CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.0
166-10NAUNAUAttack errAudrey Heiring+1.1
177-10NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.8
187-11CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+0.9
197-12NAUNAUAttack errAnaiya Campbellblk Masina Perez, Gigi Greenlee+0.9
208-12NAUCALBAPKillMaddie Brown+0.6
218-13CALBAPNAU×3KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.7
228-14NAUNAU×3Bad setMaddie Brown+0.7
238-15NAUNAU×3AceNAU serveraced Team+0.5
249-15NAUCALBAP×3KillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.3
2510-15CALBAPCALBAP×3AceCALBAP serveraced Lilly Holmes+0.5
2611-15CALBAPCALBAP×3AceCALBAP serveraced Lilly Holmes+0.8
2711-16CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.7
2812-16NAUCALBAPKillMaddie Brownset Emery DeJong+0.6
2912-17CALBAPNAU×4KillLaney Wilsonset Ella Hosfeld+0.7
3012-18NAUNAU×4KillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+0.7
3112-19NAUNAU×4Attack errEleftheria Baxablk Avery Gottschalk, Quincey Coyle+0.4
3212-20NAUNAU×4KillLaney Wilsonset Ella Hosfeld+0.2
3313-20NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.1
3413-21CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
3513-22NAUNAUAttack errAnaiya Campbell+0.1
3614-22NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+0.0
3714-23CALBAPNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+0.0
3814-24NAUNAUAttack errEmery DeJong+0.0
3915-24NAUCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.0
4015-25CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+0.0
Set 2
10-1CALBAPNAUKillMasina Perezset Taryn Davis+0.8
21-1NAUCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.8
31-2CALBAPNAUAttack errEleftheria Baxa+0.8
42-2NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+0.9
52-3CALBAPNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+0.8
63-3NAUCALBAP×8Serve errNAU server+0.9
74-3CALBAPCALBAP×8Attack errQuincey Coyle+1.3
85-3CALBAPCALBAP×8Attack errQuincey Coyleblk Filippa Botcher+1.4
96-3CALBAPCALBAP×8Attack errPeyton Devlinblk Filippa Botcher, Maria Contreras+1.5
107-3CALBAPCALBAP×8Attack errLaney Wilson+1.5
118-3CALBAPCALBAP×8KillAnaiya Campbellset Maria Contreras+1.5
129-3CALBAPCALBAP×8KillMaria Contreras+1.4
1310-3CALBAPCALBAP×8KillAnaiya Campbellset Maria Contreras+1.3
1410-4CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.7
1511-4NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+1.0
1612-4CALBAPCALBAPAttack errLaney Wilson+1.1
1712-5CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.6
1813-5NAUCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.8
1913-6CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.5
2014-6NAUCALBAPBad setKate Federico+0.8
2114-7CALBAPNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.5
2214-8NAUNAUKillAvery Gottschalk+0.9
2315-8NAUCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.9
2416-8CALBAPCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+0.9
2516-9CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.4
2617-9NAUCALBAPAttack errLaney Wilson+0.7
2718-9CALBAPCALBAPAceCALBAP serveraced Hanah Stoddard+0.6
2818-10CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.2
2919-10NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.4
3019-11CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.2
3120-11NAUCALBAP×3KillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.3
3221-11CALBAPCALBAP×3Attack errGigi Greenleeblk Filippa Botcher, Maria Contreras+0.2
3322-11CALBAPCALBAP×3Bad setElla Hosfeld+0.1
3422-12CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+0.0
3523-12NAUCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.0
3623-13CALBAPNAU×8KillGeorgi Steinset Taryn Davis+0.0
3723-14NAUNAU×8KillGigi Greenlee+0.0
3823-15NAUNAU×8AceNAU serveraced Jagoda Bialek+0.0
3923-16NAUNAU×8Attack errEmery DeJong+0.1
4023-17NAUNAU×8Attack errEmery DeJongblk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+0.2
4123-18NAUNAU×8Attack errEmery DeJongblk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+0.3
4223-19NAUNAU×8KillMasina Perezset Gigi Greenlee+0.6
4323-20NAUNAU×8Attack errEmery DeJong+1.0
4424-20NAUCALBAPKillIfeoma Okekeset Maddie Brown+1.5
4525-20CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Anaiya Campbell+0.7
Set 3
10-1NAUNAU×4AceNAU serveraced Team+2.3
20-2NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.1
30-3NAUNAU×4KillMasina Perezset Taryn Davis+1.8
40-4NAUNAU×4Attack errEmery DeJongblk Masina Perez, Gigi Greenlee+1.6
51-4NAUCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+1.2
61-5CALBAPNAU×9Serve errCALBAP server+1.2
71-6NAUNAU×9AceNAU serveraced Emery DeJong+1.3
81-7NAUNAU×9AceNAU serveraced Emery DeJong+1.1
91-8NAUNAU×9KillHanah Stoddardset Gigi Greenlee+0.8
101-9NAUNAU×9AceNAU serveraced Team+0.6
111-10NAUNAU×9KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.4
121-11NAUNAU×9Attack errEleftheria Baxablk Masina Perez, Avery Gottschalk+0.3
131-12NAUNAU×9Attack errIfeoma Okekeblk Avery Gottschalk, Hanah Stoddard+0.2
141-13NAUNAU×9KillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.1
152-13NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+0.1
162-14CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.1
172-15NAUNAUAttack errJana Cetkovicblk Avery Gottschalk, Hanah Stoddard+0.1
183-15NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+0.0
193-16CALBAPNAUAttack errAnaiya Campbell+0.0
204-16NAUCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Maddie Brown+0.0
215-16CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Avery Barber+0.0
225-17CALBAPNAUKillLaney Wilsonset Ella Hosfeld+0.0
236-17NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Samantha Bailey+0.0
246-18CALBAPNAU×3KillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+0.0
256-19NAUNAU×3Attack errFilippa Botcher+0.0
266-20NAUNAU×3Attack errFilippa Botcherblk Gigi Greenlee+0.0
277-20NAUCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Avery Barber+0.0
288-20CALBAPCALBAPKillSamantha Baileyset Filippa Botcher+0.0
298-21CALBAPNAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.0
308-22NAUNAU×5AceNAU serveraced Jagoda Bialek+0.0
318-23NAUNAU×5Attack errAnaiya Campbell+0.0
328-24NAUNAU×5Attack errAudrey Heiring+0.0
338-25NAUNAU×5Attack errJana Cetkovicblk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+0.0
Set 4
11-0CALBAPCALBAPBad setTaryn Davis+2.0
22-0CALBAPCALBAPKillDaria Chekhovskikhset Maddie Brown+2.2
32-1CALBAPNAU×4Attack errAudrey Heiring+1.5
42-2NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.0
52-3NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.9
62-4NAUNAU×4Attack errEleftheria Baxa+1.7
73-4NAUCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.3
83-5CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+1.3
94-5NAUCALBAPKillDaria Chekhovskikhset Maddie Brown+1.4
104-6CALBAPNAUKillLaney Wilsonset Ella Hosfeld+1.3
115-6NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+1.4
126-6CALBAPCALBAPAttack errQuincey Coyleblk Filippa Botcher, Maddie Brown+2.1
136-7CALBAPNAUKillLaney Wilsonset Ella Hosfeld+1.6
146-8NAUNAUBad setJagoda Bialek+1.9
157-8NAUCALBAPAttack errQuincey Coyleblk Filippa Botcher, Maddie Brown+1.5
167-9CALBAPNAU×3Attack errFilippa Botcherblk Gigi Greenlee+1.5
177-10NAUNAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.7
187-11NAUNAU×3Attack errAudrey Heiringblk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+1.5
198-11NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+1.0
208-12CALBAPNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.1
219-12NAUCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.0
229-13CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+1.1
2310-13NAUCALBAP×3Attack errEleftheria Baxa+1.1
2411-13CALBAPCALBAP×3KillMaddie Brownset Eleftheria Baxa+1.8
2512-13CALBAPCALBAP×3KillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+2.3
2612-14CALBAPNAUBad setMaddie Brown+1.8
2713-14NAUCALBAPServe errNAU server+1.8
2813-15CALBAPNAUAttack errAnaiya Campbellblk Laney Wilson, Avery Gottschalk+1.9
2914-15NAUCALBAP×4Serve errNAU server+1.9
3015-15CALBAPCALBAP×4Attack errLaney Wilson+3.0
3116-15CALBAPCALBAP×4Attack errQuincey Coyleblk Filippa Botcher, Maria Contreras+3.5
3217-15CALBAPCALBAP×4KillAnaiya Campbellset Maria Contreras+3.9
3317-16CALBAPNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+2.5
3418-16NAUCALBAPAttack errQuincey Coyleblk Filippa Botcher+3.2
3518-17CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+2.7
3618-18NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+3.9
3719-18NAUCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+3.4
3820-18CALBAPCALBAPAceCALBAP serveraced Quincey Coyle+4.8
3920-19CALBAPNAUServe errCALBAP server+3.0
4021-19NAUCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+4.1
4121-20CALBAPNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+3.2
4221-21NAUNAUAceNAU serveraced Jagoda Bialek+5.1
4322-21NAUCALBAP×3KillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+4.8
4423-21CALBAPCALBAP×3AceCALBAP serveraced Kate Federico+6.6
4524-21CALBAPCALBAP×3KillDaria Chekhovskikhset Maddie Brown+5.4
4624-22CALBAPNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.6
4724-23NAUNAU×4Attack errAnaiya Campbell+4.6
4824-24NAUNAU×4Bad setMaddie Brown+9.7
4924-25NAUNAU×4Attack errEleftheria Baxa+8.2
5025-25NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+6.1
5125-26CALBAPNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+6.1
5226-26NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+6.1
5326-27CALBAPNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+6.1
5427-27NAUCALBAPKillAnaiya Campbellset Maddie Brown+6.1
5527-28CALBAPNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+6.1
5628-28NAUCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+6.1
5728-29CALBAPNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+6.1
5828-30NAUNAUKillMasina Perezset Taryn Davis+6.9

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.