FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

3:0

HomeSWAC

California Baptist def. Texas Southern 3–0

(25-17, 25-21, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALBAP	25	25	25	3
TX SOU	17	21	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TX SOU above 50 · CALBAP below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Texas Southern — set 2, CALBAP 15-18 TX SOU. Kill by Lauren Battle (set by Kadence Davison). TX SOU win probability 8% → 10%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CALBAP 91.0%9.0% TX SOU

California Baptist wins

3-0

46.2%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.3%

Texas Southern wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.7%

3-2

5.1%

CALBAP break %: 49.8% vs this opp
TX SOU break %: 39.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lauren BattleKill+1.6%
Kill by Lauren Battle (set by Kadence Davison)
Set 2 · CALBAP 15-18 TX SOU · TX SOU 8% → 10%
02
Morgynne McQueenAttack error+1.6%
Morgynne McQueen stuffed by Filippa Botcher & Emery DeJong
Set 2 · CALBAP 20-19 TX SOU · CALBAP 94% → 95%
03
Emery DeJongKill+1.5%
Kill by Emery DeJong (set by Daria Chekhovskikh)
Set 2 · CALBAP 18-18 TX SOU · CALBAP 92% → 94%
04
Eleftheria BaxaKill+1.4%
Kill by Eleftheria Baxa (set by Avery Barber)
Set 2 · CALBAP 17-18 TX SOU · CALBAP 91% → 92%
05
Lauren BattleKill+1.4%
Kill by Lauren Battle (set by Kadence Davison)
Set 2 · CALBAP 18-19 TX SOU · TX SOU 6% → 8%
06
CALBAP serverAce+1.4%
California Baptist ace on Team
Set 2 · CALBAP 21-19 TX SOU · CALBAP 95% → 97%
07
TX SOU serverAce+1.3%
Texas Southern ace on Mia Rossman
Set 1 · CALBAP 6-7 TX SOU · TX SOU 10% → 11%
08
CALBAP serverAce+1.3%
California Baptist ace on Lauanna Pino
Set 2 · CALBAP 15-16 TX SOU · CALBAP 92% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

California Baptistaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Eleftheria BaxaOH	3	15	1	25	.560	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15
19Emery DeJongOH	3	10	5	24	.208	1	2	1	5	0	0	2	1	13
11Anaiya CampbellOH	3	8	5	24	.125	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	1	9
7Avery BarberS	3	0	0	4	.000	22	3	0	7	0	0	0	0	3
21Ifeoma OkekeMB	2	4	1	5	.600	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
18Jana CetkovicMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
14Maria ContrerasS	3	2	0	5	.400	9	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
9Mia RossmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	0	1
8Filippa BotcherMB	2	1	2	4	-.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	2
22Jagoda BialekL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	2
2Nika SafaviOH	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
3Devyn MasiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
17Daria ChekhovskikhMB	1	0	2	5	-.400	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team totals		40	17	100	.230	38	12	6	29	2	1	12	7	75

Texas Southernhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Lauren BattleOH	3	11	1	17	.588	0	1	0	8	2	0	0	0	12
2Lacey KusnierOH	3	4	2	13	.154	1	1	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
21Aliyah Spencer	3	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
20Aaliyah BrownMB	3	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
3Gracie LeeOH	3	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Kadence DavisonS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
6Ava HoustonMB	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
11Ava RayS	3	0	0	1	.000	10	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Keagan St. JuniousL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
17Lauanna PinoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	7	6	0	0	0	0
4Selana MoralesOH	2	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
10Emory HarperOPP	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
7Morgynne McQueenMB	2	1	3	4	-.500	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
15Kaiulani SherrowS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	17	83	.181	31	2	2	35	12	1	8	5	57

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 CALBAP · TX SOU 6

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 6 CALBAPTX SOU 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 CALBAPTX SOU 6

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 CALBAPTX SOU 3

Bars above the line = Texas Southern leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California Baptist

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	71%12/17
2	67%6/9	63%10/16
3	100%6/6	57%8/14
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	50%5/10	17%1/6
6	38%5/13	55%6/11
All	59%35/59	55%40/73

Texas Southern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%6/19	50%6/12
2	55%6/11	54%7/13
3	46%6/13	0%0/6
4	86%6/7	25%2/8
5	45%5/11	45%5/11
6	33%4/12	44%4/9
All	45%33/73	41%24/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	CALBAP-TX SOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.7
2	1-1	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.8
3	2-1	TX SOU	CALBAP×3	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.7
4	3-1	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Ifeoma Okeke, Maria Contreras	+0.8
5	4-1	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Maria Contreras	+0.7
6	4-2	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kadence Davison	+0.6
7	5-2	TX SOU	CALBAP	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.6
8	5-3	CALBAP	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.6
9	5-4	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+0.9
10	5-5	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+1.1
11	6-5	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Maria Contreras	+0.8
12	6-6	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.9
13	6-7	TX SOU	TX SOU	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Mia Rossman	+1.3
14	7-7	TX SOU	CALBAP×3	Bad set	Lauren Battle		+1.0
15	8-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Ava Houston	blk Jana Cetkovic, Emery DeJong	+1.1
16	9-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauren Battle	+1.0
17	9-8	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+0.9
18	10-8	TX SOU	CALBAP×3	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.8
19	11-8	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauren Battle	+0.9
20	12-8	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Aaliyah Brown		+0.7
21	12-9	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.6
22	13-9	TX SOU	CALBAP×6	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.6
23	14-9	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Attack err	Selana Morales		+0.6
24	15-9	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+0.4
25	16-9	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.3
26	17-9	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Keagan St. Junious	+0.2
27	18-9	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Bad set	Lacey Kusnier		+0.1
28	18-10	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kadence Davison	+0.0
29	19-10	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+0.1
30	20-10	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Maria Contreras	+0.0
31	20-11	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kadence Davison	+0.0
32	21-11	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Maria Contreras	set Emery DeJong	+0.0
33	21-12	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.0
34	22-12	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell		+0.0
35	22-13	CALBAP	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+0.0
36	22-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Ava Ray	+0.0
37	22-15	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Emery DeJong	blk Aliyah Spencer, Ava Houston	+0.0
38	23-15	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+0.0
39	23-16	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+0.0
40	23-17	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.0
41	24-17	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.1
42	25-17	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Ava Houston	blk Jana Cetkovic, Anaiya Campbell	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CALBAP	TX SOU×4	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+0.6
2	0-2	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Anaiya Campbell	+0.8
3	0-3	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh	blk Aaliyah Brown	+0.9
4	0-4	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+1.0
5	1-4	TX SOU	CALBAP	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.6
6	1-5	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.8
7	2-5	TX SOU	CALBAP×3	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.7
8	3-5	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen		+0.8
9	4-5	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Team	+0.8
10	4-6	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.8
11	5-6	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.7
12	5-7	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Morgynne McQueen	set Ava Ray	+0.8
13	5-8	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Filippa Botcher	blk Lacey Kusnier, Morgynne McQueen	+1.0
14	6-8	TX SOU	CALBAP	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+0.7
15	7-8	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen		+0.9
16	7-9	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.9
17	7-10	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell	blk Aaliyah Brown, Ava Houston	+1.1
18	8-10	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Filippa Botcher	set Maria Contreras	+0.8
19	9-10	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Maria Contreras	set Lauren Battle	+1.0
20	9-11	CALBAP	TX SOU×6	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.9
21	9-12	TX SOU	TX SOU×6	Kill	Emory Harper	set Lauanna Pino	+1.2
22	9-13	TX SOU	TX SOU×6	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+1.3
23	9-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×6	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+1.2
24	9-15	TX SOU	TX SOU×6	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+1.1
25	9-16	TX SOU	TX SOU×6	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Lauanna Pino	+1.0
26	10-16	TX SOU	CALBAP×6	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+0.5
27	11-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+0.8
28	12-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Devyn Masi	+0.9
29	13-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Attack err	Aaliyah Brown		+1.1
30	14-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Attack err	Emory Harper		+1.2
31	15-16	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+1.3
32	15-17	CALBAP	TX SOU	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh		+1.3
33	15-18	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+1.6
34	16-18	TX SOU	CALBAP×3	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+1.0
35	17-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+1.4
36	18-18	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Daria Chekhovskikh	+1.5
37	18-19	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+1.4
38	19-19	TX SOU	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+1.3
39	20-19	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen	blk Filippa Botcher, Emery DeJong	+1.6
40	21-19	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Team	+1.4
41	22-19	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+1.0
42	22-20	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.6
43	23-20	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.8
44	24-20	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Ava Houston	blk Filippa Botcher, Maria Contreras	+0.5
45	24-21	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.2
46	25-21	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	TX SOU	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.2
2	2-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Filippa Botcher	+0.3
3	3-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.2
4	4-0	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Team	+0.2
5	4-1	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
6	4-2	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Lauanna Pino	+0.2
7	5-2	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.2
8	5-3	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Lauanna Pino	+0.2
9	6-3	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Devyn Masi	+0.2
10	7-3	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+0.2
11	7-4	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.2
12	8-4	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+0.2
13	8-5	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+0.2
14	8-6	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+0.3
15	9-6	TX SOU	CALBAP	Attack err	Aaliyah Brown		+0.2
16	9-7	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Ava Ray	+0.2
17	10-7	TX SOU	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.2
18	11-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+0.2
19	12-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+0.2
20	13-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.1
21	13-8	CALBAP	TX SOU	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+0.1
22	13-9	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Ifeoma Okeke		+0.2
23	14-9	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Mia Rossman	+0.1
24	14-10	CALBAP	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+0.1
25	14-11	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Filippa Botcher		+0.2
26	14-12	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Lacey Kusnier	+0.3
27	15-12	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.3
28	15-13	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.3
29	16-13	TX SOU	CALBAP	Attack err	Gracie Lee	blk Anaiya Campbell, Maria Contreras	+0.3
30	17-13	CALBAP	CALBAP	Ace	CALBAP server	aced Lauanna Pino	+0.3
31	17-14	CALBAP	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.2
32	18-14	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+0.2
33	18-15	CALBAP	TX SOU	Serve err	CALBAP server		+0.2
34	19-15	TX SOU	CALBAP×4	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+0.2
35	20-15	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.2
36	21-15	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Bad set	Aaliyah Brown		+0.1
37	22-15	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Bad set	Ava Houston		+0.1
38	22-16	CALBAP	TX SOU×3	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.0
39	22-17	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Aliyah Spencer		+0.0
40	22-18	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa		+0.1
41	23-18	TX SOU	CALBAP	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.1
42	24-18	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Selana Morales	blk Ifeoma Okeke	+0.1
43	24-19	CALBAP	TX SOU	Attack err	Nika Safavi	blk Aliyah Spencer, Ava Houston	+0.0
44	25-19	TX SOU	CALBAP	Kill	Ifeoma Okeke	set Avery Barber	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.