Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UC San Diego def. California Baptist 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UC San Diego 88.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 8:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UC San Diego won at California Baptist 3-1 (25-8, 25-22, 25-27, 25-21) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. UC San Diego's Molly McCluskey and Ireland McNees led with 19 kills each, and Paulina Baillie added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set1234Sets
UCSD252525253
CALBAP82227211

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UC San Diego broke it open with an 8–0 run in the first set.

Win probability never moved more than 2.6 points on one rally; California Baptist topped out at 13% in Set 4. UC San Diego went in as RallyIQ's 89% pick.

UC San DiegoCalifornia Baptist
  • Break %+15.1 pts
    45.530.4

    45 of 99 on serve vs 24 of 79, so California Baptist's sideout was 54.5%.

  • Hitting+.098
    .277.179

    58 K / 20 E against 45 K / 21 E.

  • Longest run+4
    84

    UC San Diego opened the set in the first set with 8 straight points for an 8–0 lead. That set ended 25–8.

California Baptist above 50UC San Diego belowMax swing 2.6%

UC San DiegoCalifornia Baptist

Aces
UC San Diego 11·California Baptist 1
Serve err
UC San Diego 7·California Baptist 9
Blocks
UC San Diego 6·California Baptist 111 BS · 10 BA vs 4 BS · 14 BA
Digs
UC San Diego 53·California Baptist 44

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

California Baptist above 50 · UC San Diego below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.6% CALBAPrally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.6% to California Baptist — set 3, UCSD 25-27 CALBAP. Attack error by Lucia Barroso. CALBAP win probability 5% → 8%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCSD 82.6%17.4% CALBAP

UC San Diego wins

3-0
34.3%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
17.5%

California Baptist wins

3-0
2.7%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
9.0%
UCSD break %
46.5% vs this opp
CALBAP break %
39.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lucia BarrosoAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Lucia Barroso

    Set 3 · UCSD 25-27 CALBAP · CALBAP 5% → 8%

  2. 02
    Gia RiveraAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Gia Rivera

    Set 4 · UCSD 14-14 CALBAP · CALBAP 7% → 9%

  3. 03
    Marleena CatalanBad set+2.4%

    Bad set by Marleena Catalan

    Set 4 · UCSD 18-17 CALBAP · CALBAP 5% → 7%

  4. 04
    Emery DeJongBlock+2.4%

    Lucia Barroso stuffed by Emery DeJong

    Set 4 · UCSD 7-9 CALBAP · CALBAP 10% → 13%

  5. 05
    UC San DiegoAce+2.2%

    UC San Diego ace on Jagoda Bialek

    Set 4 · UCSD 16-14 CALBAP · UCSD 93% → 95%

  6. 06

    Kill by Molly McCluskey (set by Jaedyn Houston)

    Set 4 · UCSD 10-10 CALBAP · UCSD 89% → 91%

  7. 07
    Brynne McGhieBad set+2.1%

    Bad set by Brynne McGhie

    Set 3 · UCSD 23-24 CALBAP · CALBAP 3% → 5%

  8. 08

    Kill by Molly McCluskey (set by Marleena Catalan)

    Set 4 · UCSD 20-17 CALBAP · UCSD 95% → 97%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419238.447013100031.521.5
419035.54300060010.519.5
45523.000000000216
4248-.25010000132.54.5
4011-1.00029101000001
2000–200310000
412828.14300030010.512.5
4001.0001411600004
4000–223400002
4103.3332100000001
3000–130100003
Team totals5820137.277571175311106100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413133.3641002102114
412335.2570002002113
4217.14300270132.54.5
4215.200000000424
4012-.5001802900000
24720-.150010120005
4001.0003021020000
3429.22200020031.55.5
31011.0002001700001
27521.095002312029
2000–000110000
2000–000000000
1000–100001011
1000–000010000
Team totals4521134.179431944114141178

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 UCSD · CALBAP 4

Set 1

25-8

Longest run 8 UCSDCALBAP 2

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 UCSDCALBAP 3

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 3 UCSDCALBAP 4

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 UCSDCALBAP 2

Bars above the line = California Baptist leads, below = UC San Diego leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UC San Diego

SlotSideout %Break %
1
85%11/13
25%3/12
2
79%11/14
62%18/29
3
60%9/15
44%7/16
4
60%9/15
36%5/14
5
80%8/10
47%7/15
6
58%7/12
38%5/13
All
70%55/79
45%45/99

California Baptist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%11/24
31%4/13
2
53%10/19
27%4/15
3
60%9/15
29%4/14
4
56%9/16
44%7/16
5
62%8/13
25%3/12
6
58%7/12
22%2/9
All
55%54/99
30%24/79

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#UCSD-CALBAPSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CALBAPUCSD×8KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.8
22-0UCSDUCSD×8KillMolly McCluskeyset Dillyn Griffin+1.0
33-0UCSDUCSD×8KillIreland McNeesset Dillyn Griffin+0.8
44-0UCSDUCSD×8AceUC San Diegoaced Jagoda Bialek+0.7
55-0UCSDUCSD×8KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.6
66-0UCSDUCSD×8Attack errEleftheria Baxa+0.5
77-0UCSDUCSD×8KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.4
88-0UCSDUCSD×8KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.3
98-1UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Madison Johnson+0.2
108-2CALBAPCALBAPBlockedMadison Johnsonblk Eleftheria Baxa, Jana Cetkovic+0.3
119-2CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.3
1210-2UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.3
1310-3UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego+0.2
1411-3CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.2
1511-4UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.2
1612-4CALBAPUCSD×3Attack errNalanie Neal+0.2
1713-4UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Mia Rossman+0.2
1814-4UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diego+0.1
1914-5UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego+0.1
2015-5CALBAPUCSD×3Attack errNalanie Neal+0.1
2116-5UCSDUCSD×3BlockedNalanie Nealblk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+0.1
2217-5UCSDUCSD×3BlockedNalanie Nealblk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso·
2317-6UCSDCALBAPBlockedGia Riverablk Maria Contreras·
2418-6CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist·
2518-7UCSDCALBAPKillNalanie Nealset Maria Contreras·
2619-7CALBAPUCSD×4Serve errCalifornia Baptist·
2720-7UCSDUCSD×4BlockedNalanie Nealblk Madison Johnson, Ireland McNees·
2821-7UCSDUCSD×4AceUC San Diegoaced Devyn Masi·
2922-7UCSDUCSD×4Bad setJana Cetkovic·
3022-8UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego·
3123-8CALBAPUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan·
3224-8UCSDUCSD×3KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie·
3325-8UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Nalanie Neal·
Set 2
10-1UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.7
20-2CALBAPCALBAPAttack errLucia Barroso+1.0
31-2CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.7
42-2UCSDUCSDAttack errAvery Barber+0.9
52-3UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.7
62-4CALBAPCALBAPBad setMarleena Catalan+1.0
73-4CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.7
83-5UCSDCALBAP×3Serve errUC San Diego+0.9
93-6CALBAPCALBAP×3Bad setMolly McCluskey+1.2
103-7CALBAPCALBAP×3AceNalanie Nealaced Dillyn Griffin+1.2
114-7CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.8
124-8UCSDCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+1.0
135-8CALBAPUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.8
146-8UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diego+1.1
157-8UCSDUCSD×3Serve errUC San Diego+1.1
167-9UCSDCALBAPKillBella Breuerset Maddie Brown+1.0
178-9CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Lucia Barroso+0.9
188-10UCSDCALBAP×3KillAudrey Heiringset Avery Barber+1.0
198-11CALBAPCALBAP×3KillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+1.4
208-12CALBAPCALBAP×3Bad setGia Rivera+1.4
219-12CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+0.9
229-13UCSDCALBAPKillNalanie Nealset Avery Barber+1.2
2310-13CALBAPUCSD×4KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.9
2411-13UCSDUCSD×4Attack errNalanie Neal+1.3
2512-13UCSDUCSD×4AceUC San Diegoaced Audrey Heiring+1.3
2613-13UCSDUCSD×4AceUC San Diego+1.3
2713-14UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+1.2
2814-14CALBAPUCSD×4KillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+1.0
2915-14UCSDUCSD×4KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+1.3
3016-14UCSDUCSD×4KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.1
3117-14UCSDUCSD×4KillIreland McNees+1.0
3217-15UCSDCALBAPKillNalanie Nealset Maddie Brown+0.7
3318-15CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.8
3418-16UCSDCALBAPKillBella Breuerset Maddie Brown+0.7
3519-16CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+0.8
3619-17UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.7
3719-18CALBAPCALBAPBlockedLucia Barrosoblk Jana Cetkovic, Audrey Heiring+1.3
3820-18CALBAPUCSD×3KillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+1.2
3921-18UCSDUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.2
4022-18UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Nalanie Neal+0.8
4122-19UCSDCALBAPBlockedMarleena Catalanblk Audrey Heiring, Jana Cetkovic+0.4
4223-19CALBAPUCSDAttack errEleftheria Baxa+0.6
4323-20UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.3
4423-21CALBAPCALBAPAttack errMolly McCluskey+0.8
4524-21CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist+1.0
4624-22UCSDCALBAPKillNalanie Nealset Avery Barber+0.4
4725-22CALBAPUCSDAttack errNalanie Neal+0.9
Set 3
11-0CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.3
21-1UCSDCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Jagoda Bialek+0.3
32-1CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.3
42-2UCSDCALBAP×4KillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.3
52-3CALBAPCALBAP×4KillMaddie Brownset Audrey Heiring+0.5
62-4CALBAPCALBAP×4KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.5
72-5CALBAPCALBAP×4BlockedMadison Johnsonblk Emery DeJong+0.6
83-5CALBAPUCSDAttack errIreland McNees+0.4
93-6UCSDCALBAP×3KillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.5
103-7CALBAPCALBAP×3BlockedGia Riverablk Filippa Botcher, Bella Breuer+0.6
113-8CALBAPCALBAP×3BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Filippa Botcher+0.6
124-8CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist+0.4
135-8UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Emery DeJong+0.5
145-9UCSDCALBAPKillFilippa Botcherset Maddie Brown+0.5
156-9CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+0.4
166-10UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.5
177-10CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+0.4
188-10UCSDUCSDAttack errEleftheria Baxa+0.6
198-11UCSDCALBAPKillJana Cetkovicset Avery Barber+0.5
209-11CALBAPUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+0.4
219-12UCSDCALBAPAttack errMadison Johnson+0.6
229-13CALBAPCALBAPAttack errMadison Johnson+0.7
2310-13CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.4
2410-14UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego+0.6
2511-14CALBAPUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+0.4
2611-15UCSDCALBAPBlockedGia Riverablk Filippa Botcher, Bella Breuer+0.6
2712-15CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+0.5
2813-15UCSDUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Hayden Shanafelt+0.7
2913-16UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.7
3013-17CALBAPCALBAPKillBella Breuerset Maddie Brown+0.8
3114-17CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+0.5
3214-18UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.7
3315-18CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+0.5
3416-18UCSDUCSDBlockedJana Cetkovicblk Lucia Barroso+0.7
3516-19UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Avery Barber+0.8
3617-19CALBAPUCSD×3BlockedEmery DeJongblk Lucia Barroso, Molly McCluskey+0.6
3718-19UCSDUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.9
3819-19UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.9
3919-20UCSDCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Avery Barber+0.9
4020-20CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.8
4120-21UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+1.0
4221-21CALBAPUCSD×3Serve errCalifornia Baptist+0.9
4322-21UCSDUCSD×3Attack errEmery DeJong+1.2
4423-21UCSDUCSD×3KillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+1.0
4523-22UCSDCALBAP×3Attack errGia Rivera+0.6
4623-23CALBAPCALBAP×3KillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.4
4723-24CALBAPCALBAP×3Bad setBrynne McGhie+2.1
4824-24CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+1.7
4924-25UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.7
5025-25CALBAPUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+1.7
5125-26UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Jagoda Bialek+1.7
5225-27CALBAPCALBAPAttack errLucia Barroso+2.6
Set 4
10-1UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego+1.3
21-1CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.2
31-2UCSDCALBAPBlockedMadison Johnsonblk Filippa Botcher, Eleftheria Baxa+1.4
42-2CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.3
52-3UCSDCALBAPKillBella Breuerset Maddie Brown+1.4
62-4CALBAPCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+2.0
73-4CALBAPUCSD×3Serve errCalifornia Baptist+1.4
84-4UCSDUCSD×3Attack errAudrey Heiring+1.7
95-4UCSDUCSD×3BlockedBella Breuerblk Gia Rivera, Madison Johnson+1.6
105-5UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+1.4
115-6CALBAPCALBAPAttack errGia Rivera+2.0
126-6CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.4
136-7UCSDCALBAPBlockedGia Riverablk Jana Cetkovic, Bella Breuer+1.6
147-7CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist+1.5
157-8UCSDCALBAPAttack errGia Rivera+1.7
167-9CALBAPCALBAPBlockedLucia Barrosoblk Emery DeJong+2.4
178-9CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.6
188-10UCSDCALBAPServe errUC San Diego+2.0
199-10CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.7
2010-10UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Jaedyn Houston+2.2
2110-11UCSDCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Avery Barber+1.9
2211-11CALBAPUCSDAttack errEmery DeJong+1.7
2312-11UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+2.1
2412-12UCSDCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+1.8
2513-12CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.7
2614-12UCSDUCSDAttack errEmery DeJong+2.0
2714-13UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Jagoda Bialek+1.6
2814-14CALBAPCALBAPAttack errGia Rivera+2.5
2915-14CALBAPUCSDServe errCalifornia Baptist+1.9
3016-14UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Jagoda Bialek+2.2
3116-15UCSDCALBAPKillJana Cetkovicset Maddie Brown+1.7
3217-15CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+1.8
3318-15UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Paulina Baillie+1.9
3418-16UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+1.4
3518-17CALBAPCALBAPBad setMarleena Catalan+2.4
3619-17CALBAPUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+2.0
3720-17UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+2.1
3820-18UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+1.4
3921-18CALBAPUCSDAttack errEmery DeJong+1.7
4022-18UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Jaedyn Houston+1.5
4122-19UCSDCALBAPKillEleftheria Baxaset Avery Barber+0.7
4223-19CALBAPUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.1
4323-20UCSDCALBAPKillEmery DeJongset Maddie Brown+0.6
4424-20CALBAPUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.0
4524-21UCSDCALBAPKillAudrey Heiringset Maddie Brown+0.3
4625-21CALBAPUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+0.7

Score shown after each rally, UC San Diego first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).