FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Iowa St. def. Kansas St. 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Kansas St. 51.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 6:26 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Iowa St. beat visiting Kansas St. 3-0 (25-20, 25-15, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Iowa St.'s Nayeli Gonzalez led with 14 kills, and Rachel Van Gorp added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set123Sets
KAN ST2015180
IOWAST2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.500 and 14 kills for Nayeli Gonzalez as Iowa St. rolled past Kansas St.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.2 points. Kansas St. peaked at 52% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ had Kansas St. at 52% before first serve.

Kansas St.Iowa St.
  • Break %+21.6 pts
    23.645.2

    On serve: 33/73 against 13/55 (Kansas St. sideout 54.8%).

  • Hitting+.230
    .114.344

    Kills and errors: 40–9 vs 33–21.

  • Longest run+2
    35

    Iowa St. scored 5 straight in the second set to stretch an 11–7 lead to 16–7. The set finished 25–15.

Iowa St. above 50Kansas St. belowMax swing 3.2%

Kansas St.Iowa St.

Aces
Kansas St. 4·Iowa St. 5
Serve err
Kansas St. 9·Iowa St. 7
Blocks
Kansas St. 4·Iowa St. 61 BS · 6 BA vs 2 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Kansas St. 37·Iowa St. 42

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Iowa St. above 50 · Kansas St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+3.2% IOWASTrally 128 · set 3

Biggest swing: 3.2% to Iowa St. — set 1, KAN ST 9-11 IOWAST. Attack error by Addison Massey. IOWAST win probability 51% → 54%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

KAN ST 41.5%58.5% IOWAST

Kansas St. wins

3-0
9.2%
3-1
15.2%
3-2
17.0%

Iowa St. wins

3-0
16.4%
3-1
22.3%
3-2
19.8%
KAN ST break %
39.0% vs this opp
IOWAST break %
40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Addison MasseyAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Addison Massey

    Set 1 · KAN ST 9-11 IOWAST · IOWAST 51% → 54%

  2. 02

    Kill by Mesaiya Bettis (set by Rachel Van Gorp)

    Set 1 · KAN ST 10-13 IOWAST · IOWAST 54% → 57%

  3. 03
    Kansas St.Ace+3.1%

    Kansas St. ace

    Set 1 · KAN ST 9-9 IOWAST · KAN ST 49% → 52%

  4. 04
    Pam McCuneKill+2.8%

    Kill by Pam McCune (set by Ella Florez)

    Set 1 · KAN ST 11-15 IOWAST · IOWAST 57% → 60%

  5. 05

    Nayeli Ti'a stuffed by Cadence Lundgren & Reagan Fox

    Set 1 · KAN ST 6-7 IOWAST · KAN ST 46% → 49%

  6. 06
    Nayeli GonzalezBlock+2.6%

    Addison Massey stuffed by Nayeli Gonzalez

    Set 2 · KAN ST 0-2 IOWAST · IOWAST 69% → 72%

  7. 07
    Skylar BradyAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Skylar Brady

    Set 2 · KAN ST 0-1 IOWAST · IOWAST 67% → 69%

  8. 08

    Kill by Nayeli Gonzalez

    Set 1 · KAN ST 0-2 IOWAST · IOWAST 50% → 52%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310834.0590015000010
3518.50000010132.57.5
3217.1432512100003
3000–012200001
2308.375000100003
2000–000100000
35424.04201141010.56.5
3000–1021800000
2259-.333011100214
2419.333000000004
2102.500100100001
1113.000000000001
1001.000300200000
Team totals3321105.114304937516453
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314126.5002118010116
36221.190022500219
38318.27800241010.58.5
37215.33300100111.58.5
3304.750300090010.53.5
3216.16710000010.52.5
3000–010100212
3000–1111500001
Team totals40990.344345742428675

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 KAN ST · IOWAST 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 KAN STIOWAST 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 KAN STIOWAST 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 KAN STIOWAST 3

Bars above the line = Iowa St. leads, below = Kansas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Kansas St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%8/21
42%5/12
2
62%8/13
11%1/9
3
54%7/13
20%2/10
4
67%6/9
22%2/9
5
86%6/7
33%3/9
6
50%5/10
0%0/6
All
55%40/73
24%13/55

Iowa St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
50%6/12
2
80%8/10
56%10/18
3
80%8/10
33%4/12
4
70%7/10
46%6/13
5
86%6/7
33%3/9
6
100%5/5
44%4/9
All
76%42/55
45%33/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

128 rallies

#KAN ST-IOWASTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1KAN STIOWAST×4KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.8
20-2IOWASTIOWAST×4KillNayeli Gonzalez+2.6
30-3IOWASTIOWAST×4Attack errAddison Massey+2.5
40-4IOWASTIOWAST×4KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+2.3
51-4IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.5
61-5KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+1.7
72-5IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.5
83-5KAN STKAN STKillReagan Foxset Emerson Van Lannen+2.4
93-6KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.9
104-6IOWASTKAN STAttack errMesaiya Bettis+1.7
114-7KAN STIOWASTKillElla Florez+1.9
125-7IOWASTKAN STKillEmerson Van Lannenset Emerson Van Lannen+1.7
136-7KAN STKAN STBlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Cadence Lundgren, Reagan Fox+2.7
146-8KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+2.1
157-8IOWASTKAN STKillCadence Lundgrenset Emerson Van Lannen+2.0
167-9KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.1
178-9IOWASTKAN STKillCadence Lundgrenset Emerson Van Lannen+2.0
189-9KAN STKAN STAceKansas St.+3.1
199-10KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+2.3
209-11IOWASTIOWASTAttack errAddison Massey+3.2
2110-11IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+2.1
2210-12KAN STIOWASTAttack errAddison Massey+2.3
2310-13IOWASTIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Rachel Van Gorp+3.1
2411-13IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+2.0
2511-14KAN STIOWAST×3Serve errKansas St.+2.3
2611-15IOWASTIOWAST×3KillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+2.8
2711-16IOWASTIOWAST×3KillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+2.3
2812-16IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.2
2913-16KAN STKAN STKillSkylar Bradyset Emerson Van Lannen+2.3
3013-17KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+2.1
3113-18IOWASTIOWASTAttack errSkylar Brady+2.3
3214-18IOWASTKAN STKillEllah Derrerset Emerson Van Lannen+1.1
3314-19KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.6
3415-19IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+1.1
3515-20KAN STIOWASTBlockedCadence Lundgrenblk Reagan Hanfelt, Nayeli Ti'a+1.6
3616-20IOWASTKAN STKillSkylar Bradyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.0
3717-20KAN STKAN STBlockedMacie Lupkesblk Cadence Lundgren+2.1
3817-21KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.2
3918-21IOWASTKAN STKillEmerson Van Lannenset Ella Florez+1.4
4018-22KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+2.1
4119-22IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.2
4219-23KAN STIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+2.0
4319-24IOWASTIOWASTAttack errReagan Fox+1.3
4420-24IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+0.2
4520-25KAN STIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+0.5
Set 2
10-1IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errSkylar Brady+2.6
20-2IOWASTIOWAST×3BlockedAddison Masseyblk Nayeli Gonzalez+2.6
30-3IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.5
41-3IOWASTKAN STKillEllah Derrerset Emerson Van Lannen+1.7
51-4KAN STIOWAST×3Attack errReagan Fox+1.8
61-5IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errReagan Fox+2.4
71-6IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.+2.2
82-6IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.3
92-7KAN STIOWASTKillMacie Lupkesset Ella Florez+1.6
102-8IOWASTIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Nayeli Gonzalez+1.9
113-8IOWASTKAN STKillSkylar Bradyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.1
124-8KAN STKAN STAttack errPam McCune+1.9
134-9KAN STIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+1.6
144-10IOWASTIOWASTAttack errReagan Fox+1.9
155-10IOWASTKAN STKillReagan Foxset Emerson Van Lannen+1.1
166-10KAN STKAN STAttack errPam McCune+1.9
176-11KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+1.6
187-11IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+1.3
197-12KAN STIOWAST×5KillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.6
207-13IOWASTIOWAST×5BlockedSydney Maueblk Reagan Hanfelt, Nayeli Ti'a+1.9
217-14IOWASTIOWAST×5AceIowa St.+1.4
227-15IOWASTIOWAST×5KillElla Florezset Ella Florez+1.0
237-16IOWASTIOWAST×5Attack errAddison Massey+0.7
248-16IOWASTKAN STKillSydney Maueset Camdyn Stucky+0.3
258-17KAN STIOWAST×3Serve errKansas St.+0.4
268-18IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+0.3
278-19IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+0.2
289-19IOWASTKAN STAttack errNayeli Gonzalez+0.1
299-20KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+0.1
3010-20IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen·
3111-20KAN STKAN STAttack errMesaiya Bettis+0.1
3211-21KAN STIOWASTBlockedReagan Foxblk Macie Lupkes, Mesaiya Bettis+0.1
3312-21IOWASTKAN STKillEllah Derrerset Emerson Van Lannen·
3412-22KAN STIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+0.1
3513-22IOWASTKAN STBlockedMesaiya Bettisblk Reagan Fox, Cadence Lundgren·
3614-22KAN STKAN STAceKansas St.+0.1
3714-23KAN STIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Nayeli Gonzalez+0.1
3814-24IOWASTIOWASTBlockedSkylar Bradyblk Pam McCune, Ella Florez·
3915-24IOWASTKAN STKillCadence Lundgrenset Emerson Van Lannen·
4015-25KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez·
Set 3
10-1KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.3
21-1IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+1.3
31-2KAN STIOWASTAttack errAddison Massey+1.3
42-2IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.3
52-3KAN STIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+1.3
62-4IOWASTIOWASTAceIowa St.+1.9
73-4IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Emerson Van Lannen+1.3
83-5KAN STIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+1.4
93-6IOWASTIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+1.9
104-6IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+1.2
114-7KAN STIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Nayeli Gonzalez+1.3
125-7IOWASTKAN STKillReese Resmerset Lauren Latham+1.2
135-8KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+1.4
145-9IOWASTIOWASTKillMacie Lupkesset Ella Florez+1.8
156-9IOWASTKAN ST×3KillCamdyn Stuckyset Lauren Latham+1.1
167-9KAN STKAN ST×3BlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Cadence Lundgren, Skylar Brady+1.8
178-9KAN STKAN ST×3KillSkylar Bradyset Emerson Van Lannen+2.0
188-10KAN STIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.6
198-11IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Macie Lupkes+2.1
208-12IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errAddison Massey+1.9
219-12IOWASTKAN STKillCadence Lundgrenset Emerson Van Lannen+1.1
2210-12KAN STKAN STAceKansas St.+1.9
2310-13KAN STIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.6
2410-14IOWASTIOWASTAttack errAddison Massey+2.0
2511-14IOWASTKAN STKillSydney Maueset Emerson Van Lannen+1.1
2611-15KAN STIOWASTBlockedReese Resmerblk Pam McCune+1.4
2711-16IOWASTIOWASTServe errIowa St.+1.6
2812-16IOWASTKAN STKillSydney Maueset Emerson Van Lannen+0.9
2912-17KAN STIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+1.2
3013-17IOWASTKAN STKillAddison Masseyset Fuka Sekita+0.8
3113-18KAN STIOWASTKillElla Florez+1.2
3214-18IOWASTKAN STServe errIowa St.+0.8
3314-19KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+1.1
3415-19IOWASTKAN STKillCadence Lundgrenset Lauren Latham+0.7
3516-19KAN STKAN STAceKansas St.aced Mesaiya Bettis+1.6
3616-20KAN STIOWAST×3Serve errKansas St.+1.5
3716-21IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errSkylar Brady+1.5
3816-22IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.aced Skylar Brady+0.8
3917-22IOWASTKAN STKillSkylar Bradyset Emerson Van Lannen+0.3
4017-23KAN STIOWASTServe errKansas St.+0.5
4117-24IOWASTIOWASTAceIowa St.+0.2
4218-24IOWASTKAN STKillSydney Maueset Emerson Van Lannen·
4318-25KAN STIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Kansas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).