Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

3:1

HomeSWAC

Nicholls def. Alcorn 3–1

(21-25, 25-9, 25-12, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
NICHST	21	25	25	25	3
ALCORN	25	9	12	20	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ALCORN above 50 · NICHST below

Biggest swing: 3.9% to Alcorn — set 1, NICHST 20-22 ALCORN. Kill by Courtney Carter (set by Daylin Saiki). ALCORN win probability 17% → 21%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NICHST 88.7%11.3% ALCORN

Nicholls wins

3-0

42.3%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.8%

Alcorn wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.3%

NICHST break %: 49.2% vs this opp
ALCORN break %: 39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Courtney CarterKill+3.9%
Kill by Courtney Carter (set by Daylin Saiki)
Set 1 · NICHST 20-22 ALCORN · ALCORN 17% → 21%
02
Jaylynn McNeillKill+3.6%
Kill by Jaylynn McNeill (set by Daylin Saiki)
Set 1 · NICHST 20-23 ALCORN · ALCORN 21% → 25%
03
Kera ArringtonBad set+3.5%
Bad set by Kera Arrington
Set 1 · NICHST 20-21 ALCORN · ALCORN 14% → 17%
04
Courtney CarterKill+2.8%
Kill by Courtney Carter
Set 1 · NICHST 20-20 ALCORN · ALCORN 11% → 14%
05
ALCORN serverAce+2.5%
Alcorn ace on Team
Set 1 · NICHST 20-24 ALCORN · ALCORN 25% → 27%
06
Kera ArringtonAttack error+2.1%
Kera Arrington stuffed by Daylin Saiki & Cristin Webb
Set 4 · NICHST 2-5 ALCORN · ALCORN 11% → 13%
07
Kera ArringtonKill+2.0%
Kill by Kera Arrington
Set 2 · NICHST 1-0 ALCORN · NICHST 72% → 74%
08
Courtney CarterKill+2.0%
Kill by Courtney Carter
Set 1 · NICHST 20-19 ALCORN · ALCORN 9% → 11%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Nichollsaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	4	11	1	19	.526	2	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	13
18Kera ArringtonOH	4	12	8	31	.129	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12
5Maya SchirmerMB	4	6	1	11	.455	1	0	0	1	0	5	1	5.5	11.5
8Isabella PadillaS	4	9	0	13	.692	31	1	1	7	0	0	2	1	11
15Harper HoldenMB	4	5	2	10	.300	0	2	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
3Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieOH	4	7	4	16	.188	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	2	3	11	0	0	0	0	2
1Lizzie KraftDS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
9Sydney ValentineOH	2	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Jenna CicherskiS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
6Karina SmithL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	16	104	.346	36	9	9	38	3	6	8	10	96

Alcornhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Courtney CarterOH	4	11	10	34	.029	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	11
0Jaylynn McNeillOH	4	9	4	28	.179	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
8Cristin WebbMB	4	6	3	12	.250	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	7
1Rylan JonesMB	4	5	2	19	.158	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	1	6
18Daylin SaikiS	4	2	0	6	.333	28	2	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Bailey UpshawMB	4	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	3
12Alexis BurtonOH	4	2	2	6	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
10Tomoni GiddingsL/DS	4	0	0	3	.000	1	1	0	10	1	0	0	0	1
11Brayla DossL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Kasey WatkinsOPP	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
3Juliana HenaoS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ki’ara Knight-ThompsonMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
13De’Nyla HarlanOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Kelsey BurksMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Ma'kayla CoatsOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	21	111	.135	30	3	9	27	9	3	8	7	66

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 NICHST · ALCORN 10

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 NICHSTALCORN 10

Set 2

25-9

Longest run 7 NICHSTALCORN 3

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 4 NICHSTALCORN 2

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 5 NICHSTALCORN 2

Bars above the line = Alcorn leads, below = Nicholls leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	63%12/19
2	67%8/12	57%12/21
3	64%7/11	46%6/13
4	88%7/8	50%7/14
5	78%7/9	36%4/11
6	86%6/7	65%11/17
All	66%44/67	55%52/95

Alcorn

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%9/24	56%9/16
2	53%8/15	27%3/11
3	47%7/15	33%4/12
4	50%7/14	30%3/10
5	54%7/13	22%2/9
6	36%5/14	22%2/9
All	45%43/95	34%23/67

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

162 rallies

Rally log

#	NICHST-ALCORN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Rylan Jones	+0.8
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Courtney Carter		+1.0
3	3-0	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer		+0.8
4	3-1	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Maya Schirmer	blk Bailey Upshaw	+0.7
5	3-2	ALCORN	ALCORN	Kill	Rylan Jones		+1.0
6	4-2	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.8
7	4-3	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.9
8	5-3	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.8
9	6-3	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Cristin Webb	blk Maya Schirmer	+0.9
10	6-4	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	blk Rylan Jones	+0.7
11	7-4	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Maya Schirmer	+0.7
12	7-5	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Rylan Jones	set Juliana Henao	+0.8
13	8-5	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.8
14	9-5	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Courtney Carter		+0.8
15	10-5	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Courtney Carter	+0.6
16	10-6	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.5
17	11-6	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.5
18	11-7	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+0.5
19	12-7	ALCORN	NICHST	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Harper Holden, Sydney Valentine	+0.5
20	12-8	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.5
21	13-8	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla		+0.5
22	13-9	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.5
23	13-10	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Jaylynn McNeill, Cristin Webb	+0.8
24	14-10	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.7
25	14-11	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Rylan Jones	set Tomoni Giddings	+0.7
26	15-11	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.8
27	15-12	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.7
28	16-12	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Natalia Navarro	+0.8
29	17-12	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Tomoni Giddings	+0.7
30	17-13	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+0.5
31	17-14	ALCORN	ALCORN	Kill	Daylin Saiki		+0.9
32	18-14	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Harper Holden, Isabella Padilla	+0.8
33	19-14	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden		+0.7
34	20-14	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden		+0.5
35	20-15	NICHST	ALCORN×10	Kill	Rylan Jones	set Daylin Saiki	+0.2
36	20-16	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.5
37	20-17	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Ace	ALCORN server	aced Team	+0.8
38	20-18	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Attack err	Harper Holden	blk Bailey Upshaw	+1.3
39	20-19	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Kill	Courtney Carter		+2.0
40	20-20	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Kill	Courtney Carter		+2.8
41	20-21	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Bad set	Kera Arrington		+3.5
42	20-22	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+3.9
43	20-23	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+3.6
44	20-24	ALCORN	ALCORN×10	Ace	ALCORN server	aced Team	+2.5
45	21-24	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
46	21-25	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Bailey Upshaw, Jaylynn McNeill	+1.5
Set 2
1	1-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Kera Arrington		+2.0
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Jaylynn McNeill		+1.8
3	3-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Harper Holden, Isabella Padilla	+1.6
4	4-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Ace	NICHST server	aced Courtney Carter	+1.4
5	5-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Ace	NICHST server	aced Rylan Jones	+1.1
6	6-0	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Rylan Jones		+0.9
7	6-1	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.7
8	7-1	ALCORN	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.7
9	8-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.7
10	9-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.5
11	10-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
12	11-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Tomoni Giddings	+0.2
13	12-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Bad set	Bailey Upshaw		+0.2
14	13-1	NICHST	NICHST×7	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.1
15	13-2	NICHST	ALCORN×3	Kill	Rylan Jones	set Daylin Saiki	+0.0
16	13-3	ALCORN	ALCORN×3	Ace	ALCORN server	aced Team	+0.1
17	13-4	ALCORN	ALCORN×3	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.2
18	14-4	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla		+0.2
19	15-4	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Rylan Jones	blk Maya Schirmer	+0.1
20	15-5	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.1
21	15-6	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.1
22	16-6	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.1
23	16-7	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+0.1
24	16-8	ALCORN	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter		+0.2
25	17-8	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
26	18-8	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
27	18-9	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.1
28	19-9	ALCORN	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Cristin Webb	+0.1
29	20-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
30	21-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
31	22-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Attack err	Courtney Carter		+0.0
32	23-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
33	24-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.0
34	25-9	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	ALCORN	NICHST×4	Serve err	ALCORN server		+1.5
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Maya Schirmer	+1.7
3	3-0	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+1.5
4	4-0	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jaylynn McNeill	blk Maya Schirmer	+1.3
5	4-1	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+1.0
6	5-1	ALCORN	NICHST	Attack err	Alexis Burton	blk Maya Schirmer	+1.0
7	6-1	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.1
8	6-2	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Alexis Burton	set Daylin Saiki	+0.8
9	7-2	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.9
10	8-2	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Cristin Webb		+0.9
11	8-3	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+0.6
12	9-3	ALCORN	NICHST×4	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.7
13	10-3	NICHST	NICHST×4	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.6
14	11-3	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.5
15	12-3	NICHST	NICHST×4	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.3
16	12-4	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+0.2
17	12-5	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.4
18	13-5	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
19	14-5	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Cristin Webb		+0.3
20	15-5	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Tomoni Giddings	+0.2
21	15-6	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+0.1
22	16-6	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.1
23	16-7	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Harper Holden		+0.1
24	17-7	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
25	18-7	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Alexis Burton		+0.1
26	18-8	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.0
27	19-8	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla		+0.0
28	19-9	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.0
29	20-9	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	21-9	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
31	21-10	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
32	22-10	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Sydney Valentine	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
33	22-11	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
34	23-11	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Sydney Valentine	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	23-12	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+0.0
36	24-12	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
37	25-12	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden		+0.0
Set 4
1	0-1	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Alexis Burton	set Daylin Saiki	+1.4
2	0-2	ALCORN	ALCORN	Bad set	Kera Arrington		+1.8
3	1-2	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+1.3
4	1-3	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+1.6
5	2-3	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.4
6	2-4	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+1.6
7	2-5	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Daylin Saiki, Cristin Webb	+2.1
8	3-5	ALCORN	NICHST×5	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Natalia Navarro	+1.5
9	4-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	+1.8
10	5-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Bad set	Daylin Saiki		+1.8
11	6-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Bad set	Alexis Burton		+1.6
12	7-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+1.5
13	7-6	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+1.2
14	8-6	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+1.2
15	8-7	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Cristin Webb	set Daylin Saiki	+1.3
16	9-7	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.2
17	9-8	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+1.3
18	10-8	ALCORN	NICHST×4	Bad set	Daylin Saiki		+1.3
19	11-8	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jaylynn McNeill		+1.4
20	12-8	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Courtney Carter		+1.2
21	13-8	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jaylynn McNeill		+0.9
22	13-9	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	De’Nyla Harlan	set Daylin Saiki	+0.6
23	13-10	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Jaylynn McNeill, Bailey Upshaw	+1.1
24	14-10	ALCORN	NICHST	Bad set	De’Nyla Harlan		+1.0
25	14-11	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.9
26	15-11	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.0
27	16-11	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Mckenzie Mitchell	+1.0
28	17-11	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Kasey Watkins	+0.7
29	17-12	NICHST	ALCORN	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.4
30	17-13	ALCORN	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+0.8
31	18-13	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.8
32	18-14	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Daylin Saiki		+0.6
33	19-14	ALCORN	NICHST	Serve err	ALCORN server		+0.8
34	19-15	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.6
35	19-16	ALCORN	ALCORN	Kill	Courtney Carter	set Daylin Saiki	+1.1
36	20-16	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.1
37	20-17	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.9
38	21-17	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+1.2
39	21-18	NICHST	ALCORN	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.8
40	22-18	ALCORN	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.2
41	22-19	NICHST	ALCORN	Kill	Jaylynn McNeill	set Daylin Saiki	+0.8
42	22-20	ALCORN	ALCORN	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+1.7
43	23-20	ALCORN	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.9
44	24-20	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	+1.3
45	25-20	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Courtney Carter	blk Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie, Maya Schirmer	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Nicholls first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.