FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

IU Indy def. Ohio 3–0

(26-24, 25-21, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OHIO	24	21	22	0
IUINDY	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IUINDY above 50 · OHIO below

Biggest swing: 10.5% to IU Indy — set 1, OHIO 24-26 IUINDY. IU Indy ace on Torre Kildow. IUINDY win probability 51% → 61%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OHIO 59.4%40.6% IUINDY

Ohio wins

3-0

16.9%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

19.9%

IU Indy wins

3-0

8.9%

3-1

14.8%

3-2

16.8%

OHIO break %: 43.1% vs this opp
IUINDY break %: 41.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
IUINDY serverAce+10.5%
IU Indy ace on Torre Kildow
Set 1 · OHIO 24-26 IUINDY · IUINDY 51% → 61%
02
Bailey SinishKill+7.4%
Kill by Bailey Sinish (set by Grace Purichia)
Set 1 · OHIO 23-24 IUINDY · IUINDY 43% → 51%
03
IUINDY serverService error+7.4%
IU Indy service error
Set 1 · OHIO 24-24 IUINDY · OHIO 49% → 57%
04
Jillian TippmannKill+7.4%
Kill by Jillian Tippmann (set by Grace Purichia)
Set 1 · OHIO 24-25 IUINDY · IUINDY 43% → 51%
05
OHIO serverAce+6.5%
Ohio ace on Ninah Miranda
Set 1 · OHIO 22-22 IUINDY · OHIO 50% → 57%
06
Bailey SinishKill+5.8%
Kill by Bailey Sinish (set by Grace Purichia)
Set 1 · OHIO 22-23 IUINDY · IUINDY 43% → 49%
07
Emily WaddellKill+5.5%
Kill by Emily Waddell (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 23-23 IUINDY · OHIO 51% → 57%
08
IUINDY serverAce+5.1%
IU Indy ace on Rose Mahin
Set 2 · OHIO 19-22 IUINDY · IUINDY 73% → 78%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	13	4	25	.360	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	14
4Torre KildowOH	3	9	2	17	.412	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	0	10
7Rose MahinOH	3	6	2	14	.286	1	1	1	3	5	1	0	1	8
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
10Rowan KellyS	3	1	0	4	.250	20	0	3	3	0	1	0	1	2
11Emily WaddellMB	2	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Gentry BrownOH	2	1	0	4	.250	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
22Lacy MarxL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
13Bryn JankeS	1	0	0	1	.000	10	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Cienna LapsleyMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
18Lillie MeinhartS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	13	86	.302	37	4	12	23	9	2	4	4	67

IU Indyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Jillian TippmannOPP	3	13	5	22	.364	0	2	2	4	0	1	0.5	15.5
14Bailey SinishOH	3	11	3	20	.400	3	0	3	5	1	0	0	11
15Amanda StephensMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	1	1	3	0	2	1	7
18Ninah MirandaOH	3	5	1	12	.333	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	5
2Grace PurichiaS	3	3	1	9	.222	30	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Lila BrittMB	3	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
12Laura RoederL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	4	1	9	1	0	0	5
5Kate WhiteOPP	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Lexi GrissettS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11Elle PattersonOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
1Lauren WhiteS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Maia LongOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	14	85	.329	38	9	10	28	4	4	2	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 OHIO · IUINDY 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 OHIOIUINDY 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 OHIOIUINDY 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 OHIOIUINDY 5

Bars above the line = IU Indy leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	20%2/10
2	64%7/11	42%5/12
3	41%7/17	30%3/10
4	70%7/10	36%4/11
5	58%7/12	61%11/18
6	64%7/11	0%0/7
All	56%42/75	37%25/68

IU Indy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	46%6/13
2	54%7/13	22%2/9
3	64%7/11	56%9/16
4	44%7/16	42%5/12
5	70%7/10	42%5/12
6	78%7/9	46%6/13
All	63%43/68	44%33/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

143 rallies

Rally log

#	OHIO-IUINDY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.7
2	1-1	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.8
3	2-1	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
4	2-2	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Ninah Miranda	set Grace Purichia	+1.8
5	2-3	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+2.6
6	3-3	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.9
7	3-4	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+1.9
8	4-4	IUINDY	OHIO×3	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.9
9	5-4	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+2.6
10	6-4	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+2.6
11	6-5	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.8
12	7-5	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+1.9
13	7-6	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Lila Britt	set Grace Purichia	+1.9
14	8-6	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
15	8-7	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.9
16	8-8	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+2.9
17	8-9	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Jillian Tippmann, Amanda Stephens	+3.0
18	9-9	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
19	9-10	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Ninah Miranda		+2.3
20	10-10	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
21	10-11	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+2.4
22	11-11	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+2.3
23	11-12	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Laura Roeder	+2.5
24	12-12	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Bailey Blair	+2.4
25	12-13	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.6
26	12-14	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+3.6
27	13-14	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+2.4
28	13-15	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.7
29	13-16	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Ninah Miranda	set Grace Purichia	+3.5
30	13-17	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+3.1
31	14-17	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.7
32	14-18	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.3
33	14-19	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+2.4
34	15-19	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.2
35	16-19	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Amanda Stephens		+2.3
36	16-20	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.4
37	17-20	IUINDY	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.6
38	18-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+3.2
39	19-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rose Mahin	+4.2
40	19-21	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Ninah Miranda	set Laura Roeder	+3.9
41	20-21	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+3.2
42	20-22	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+4.3
43	21-22	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Grace Purichia	+3.4
44	22-22	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Ninah Miranda	+6.5
45	22-23	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+5.8
46	23-23	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+5.5
47	23-24	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+7.4
48	24-24	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+7.4
49	24-25	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+7.4
50	24-26	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Torre Kildow	+10.5
Set 2
1	0-1	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
2	1-1	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
3	2-1	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+2.7
4	2-2	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
5	2-3	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+2.9
6	2-4	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Rose Mahin	+2.9
7	3-4	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+2.0
8	3-5	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.2
9	4-5	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+2.1
10	5-5	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+3.0
11	5-6	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+2.3
12	5-7	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Ninah Miranda	+3.1
13	5-8	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Rose Mahin	+3.1
14	6-8	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
15	7-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lacy Marx	+3.1
16	7-9	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.4
17	7-10	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Lila Britt	set Grace Purichia	+3.2
18	8-10	IUINDY	OHIO	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Rowan Kelly	+2.1
19	8-11	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.4
20	9-11	IUINDY	OHIO	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann	blk Rose Mahin	+2.2
21	9-12	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.5
22	10-12	IUINDY	OHIO×4	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
23	11-12	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Bailey Sinish	+3.4
24	12-12	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+3.7
25	13-12	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow		+3.8
26	13-13	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.8
27	13-14	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Torre Kildow	+4.0
28	14-14	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+2.9
29	15-14	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lacy Marx	+4.1
30	15-15	OHIO	IUINDY×5	Attack err	Torre Kildow	blk Grace Purichia, Amanda Stephens	+3.0
31	15-16	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+4.5
32	15-17	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+4.5
33	15-18	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+4.2
34	15-19	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Bailey Sinish		+3.5
35	16-19	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.9
36	16-20	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.6
37	17-20	IUINDY	OHIO×3	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
38	18-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+3.5
39	19-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Grace Purichia		+4.7
40	19-21	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+4.3
41	19-22	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Rose Mahin	+5.1
42	20-22	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.4
43	20-23	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Bailey Sinish	+3.9
44	21-23	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.1
45	21-24	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Laura Roeder		+4.0
46	21-25	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+2.2
Set 3
1	1-0	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+1.4
2	1-1	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Lila Britt	set Grace Purichia	+1.4
3	2-1	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+1.4
4	2-2	OHIO	IUINDY×5	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.4
5	2-3	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.1
6	2-4	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Rose Mahin	+2.1
7	2-5	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Amanda Stephens		+2.1
8	2-6	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Rose Mahin	+2.0
9	3-6	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+1.3
10	3-7	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Bailey Sinish	+1.5
11	3-8	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Bailey Sinish	+1.8
12	4-8	IUINDY	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Bryn Janke	+1.1
13	5-8	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Ninah Miranda		+1.8
14	6-8	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+2.0
15	7-8	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Amanda Stephens	blk Olivia Gardner, Gentry Brown	+2.2
16	7-9	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Ninah Miranda	set Grace Purichia	+1.8
17	8-9	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Bryn Janke	+1.6
18	8-10	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+1.8
19	9-10	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+1.7
20	10-10	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Lila Britt		+2.5
21	10-11	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.9
22	10-12	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.6
23	11-12	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Gentry Brown	+1.8
24	11-13	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
25	11-14	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley		+2.6
26	12-14	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.7
27	12-15	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
28	12-16	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Torre Kildow	+2.4
29	13-16	IUINDY	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Torre Kildow	+1.4
30	14-16	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Bryn Janke	+2.4
31	15-16	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+2.8
32	16-16	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Elle Patterson	+3.2
33	16-17	OHIO	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.5
34	17-17	IUINDY	OHIO×3	Attack err	Elle Patterson	blk Olivia Gardner, Bryn Janke	+2.4
35	18-17	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+3.5
36	19-17	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Laura Roeder	+3.4
37	19-18	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.2
38	19-19	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+3.8
39	19-20	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Laura Roeder	+4.3
40	20-20	IUINDY	OHIO	Serve err	IUINDY server		+3.0
41	20-21	OHIO	IUINDY×3	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+3.5
42	20-22	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Gentry Brown	+4.7
43	20-23	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Kate White	set Elle Patterson	+3.8
44	21-23	IUINDY	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+1.5
45	22-23	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+3.8
46	22-24	OHIO	IUINDY	Serve err	OHIO server		+4.6
47	22-25	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley		+3.6

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.