Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

IU Indy def. NIU 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: IU Indy 78.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

IU Indy beat visiting NIU 3-1 (25-19, 25-15, 18-25, 25-21) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. IU Indy's Bailey Sinish led with 16 kills, and Laura Roeder added 16 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
NIU191525211
IUINDY252518253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

IU Indy held NIU to .081 hitting.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.5 points. NIU peaked at 25% in Set 4. These are the numbers behind it. Pre-match, RallyIQ had IU Indy at 79%.

NIUIU Indy
  • Break %+8.9 pts
    34.643.5

    40 of 92 on serve vs 28 of 81, so NIU's sideout was 56.5%.

  • Hitting+.200
    .081.281

    50 kills, 14 errors vs 39 kills, 29 errors.

IU Indy above 50NIU belowMax swing 4.5%

NIUIU Indy

Aces
NIU 5·IU Indy 6
Serve err
NIU 6·IU Indy 22
Blocks
NIU 7·IU Indy 82 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 12 BA
Digs
NIU 55·IU Indy 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

IU Indy above 50 · NIU below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.5% IUINDYrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.5% to IU Indy — set 4, NIU 18-19 IUINDY. Bad set by Ava Grevengoed. IUINDY win probability 85% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIU 18.6%81.4% IUINDY

NIU wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
9.5%

IU Indy wins

3-0
32.9%
3-1
30.6%
3-2
17.9%
NIU break %
38.0% vs this opp
IUINDY break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava GrevengoedBad set+4.5%

    Bad set by Ava Grevengoed

    Set 4 · NIU 18-19 IUINDY · IUINDY 85% → 89%

  2. 02
    Chloe MaciasKill+4.4%

    Kill by Chloe Macias (set by Grace Purichia)

    Set 4 · NIU 19-21 IUINDY · IUINDY 89% → 94%

  3. 03
    Ninah MirandaKill+4.1%

    Kill by Ninah Miranda (set by Grace Purichia)

    Set 4 · NIU 17-17 IUINDY · IUINDY 81% → 85%

  4. 04
    NIUAce+3.9%

    NIU ace on Ninah Miranda

    Set 4 · NIU 15-13 IUINDY · NIU 17% → 21%

  5. 05
    Bailey SinishKill+3.4%

    Kill by Bailey Sinish (set by Grace Purichia)

    Set 4 · NIU 19-20 IUINDY · IUINDY 86% → 89%

  6. 06
    Bailey SinishKill+3.3%

    Kill by Bailey Sinish (set by Grace Purichia)

    Set 4 · NIU 19-22 IUINDY · IUINDY 94% → 97%

  7. 07
    Katie PahlKill+3.3%

    Kill by Katie Pahl (set by Viktoria Djukic)

    Set 4 · NIU 18-17 IUINDY · NIU 15% → 18%

  8. 08
    Autumn FlynnKill+3.2%

    Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Viktoria Djukic)

    Set 4 · NIU 19-19 IUINDY · NIU 11% → 14%

Box score

Official NCAA box

NIUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49929.00012091010.511.5
49937.00021183010.510.5
48220.30001120031.510.5
48417.235000000219
4102.5002900700212
4000–103500000
4000–2112210001
2306.50000010010.53.5
2139-.222000101012
2023-.667000001011
1000–000010000
Team totals3929123.0813556556210780
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416644.22711550010.517.5
48112.5830010022311
48116.4380013004210
47224.208100920007
4207.28640321000216
4000–001400000
49425.20000210031.510.5
4000–6251610002
4000–002000000
4000–002000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
1000–001000000
Team totals5014128.28148622485212893

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NIU · IUINDY 4

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 NIUIUINDY 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 NIUIUINDY 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 3 NIUIUINDY 2

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 5 NIUIUINDY 4

Bars above the line = IU Indy leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NIU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
44%7/16
2
71%10/14
33%5/15
3
53%9/17
29%4/14
4
60%9/15
10%1/10
5
41%7/17
0%0/8
6
64%7/11
61%11/18
All
57%52/92
35%28/81

IU Indy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
33%4/12
2
71%10/14
44%8/18
3
83%10/12
47%9/19
4
100%8/8
25%3/12
5
62%8/13
58%11/19
6
44%7/16
42%5/12
All
65%53/81
43%40/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#NIU-IUINDYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0IUINDYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.4
21-1NIUIUINDYKillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.3
32-1IUINDYNIUKillViktoria Djukicset Katie Pahl+1.4
42-2NIUIUINDY×3Serve errNIU+1.3
52-3IUINDYIUINDY×3Attack errRylea Alvin+1.8
62-4IUINDYIUINDY×3Attack errAva Grevengoed+1.7
73-4IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
83-5NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+1.2
94-5IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+1.2
104-6NIUIUINDY×4KillNinah Mirandaset Grace Purichia+1.2
114-7IUINDYIUINDY×4Attack errKiana Shields+1.6
124-8IUINDYIUINDY×4AceIU Indyaced Charlotte Gramzow+1.4
134-9IUINDYIUINDY×4Attack errRylea Alvin+1.1
145-9IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.7
155-10NIUIUINDYBlockedKatie Pahlblk Jillian Tippmann, Amanda Stephens+0.8
166-10IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
176-11NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Laura Roeder+0.8
187-11IUINDYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
198-11NIUNIUBlockedBailey Sinishblk Viktoria Djukic, Autumn Flynn+1.3
208-12NIUIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+1.0
219-12IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.9
2210-12NIUNIUAceNIU+1.7
2310-13NIUIUINDY×4KillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+1.3
2410-14IUINDYIUINDY×4AceIU Indyaced Ava Grevengoed+1.6
2510-15IUINDYIUINDY×4KillChloe Macias+1.2
2610-16IUINDYIUINDY×4KillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+0.8
2711-16IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.4
2812-16NIUNIUAttack errJillian Tippmann+0.9
2912-17NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+0.8
3013-17IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.6
3113-18NIUIUINDY×4Serve errNIU+0.8
3213-19IUINDYIUINDY×4KillNinah Mirandaset Laura Roeder+0.8
3313-20IUINDYIUINDY×4BlockedKatie Pahlblk Jillian Tippmann, Amanda Stephens+0.4
3413-21IUINDYIUINDY×4BlockedKatie Pahlblk Jillian Tippmann, Amanda Stephens+0.2
3514-21IUINDYNIU×3Serve errIU Indy+0.1
3615-21NIUNIU×3BlockedJillian Tippmannblk Charizma Lofton+0.2
3716-21NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Laura Roeder+0.3
3816-22NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+0.4
3916-23IUINDYIUINDYAttack errCharizma Lofton+0.2
4017-23IUINDYNIU×3BlockedNinah Mirandablk Kiana Shields·
4118-23NIUNIU×3Attack errBailey Sinish+0.2
4219-23NIUNIU×3Attack errNinah Miranda+0.3
4319-24NIUIUINDYAttack errCharizma Lofton+0.5
4419-25IUINDYIUINDYAttack errAutumn Flynn+0.1
Set 2
11-0NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.5
22-0NIUNIU×3KillAutumn Flynn+1.6
33-0NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Ninah Miranda+1.7
43-1NIUIUINDYKillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.0
54-1IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
64-2NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+1.1
75-2IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.3
85-3NIUIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+1.1
95-4IUINDYIUINDYAceIU Indyaced Katie Pahl+1.6
106-4IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+1.3
116-5NIUIUINDY×4KillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+1.1
126-6IUINDYIUINDY×4KillNinah Mirandaset Grace Purichia+1.6
136-7IUINDYIUINDY×4Attack errKiana Shields+1.6
146-8IUINDYIUINDY×4KillJillian Tippmannset Laura Roeder+1.5
157-8IUINDYNIUKillCharizma Loftonset Ava Grevengoed+1.0
167-9NIUIUINDY×3KillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.0
177-10IUINDYIUINDY×3KillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.3
187-11IUINDYIUINDY×3Attack errCharizma Lofton+1.1
198-11IUINDYNIU×3Serve errIU Indy+0.7
209-11NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+1.3
2110-11NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.6
2210-12NIUIUINDY×3Serve errNIU+1.2
2310-13IUINDYIUINDY×3KillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.5
2410-14IUINDYIUINDY×3Attack errKatie Pahl+1.2
2511-14IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.7
2611-15NIUIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.8
2712-15IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
2812-16NIUIUINDY×3KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+0.9
2912-17IUINDYIUINDY×3KillNinah Mirandaset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
3012-18IUINDYIUINDY×3AceIU Indyaced Ava Grevengoed+0.6
3113-18IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.3
3213-19NIUIUINDYKillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+0.4
3313-20IUINDYIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.3
3414-20IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.1
3514-21NIUIUINDY×3Attack errKatie Pahl+0.2
3614-22IUINDYIUINDY×3KillNinah Mirandaset Laura Roeder+0.1
3714-23IUINDYIUINDY×3AceIU Indyaced Lilly Abney·
3815-23IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy·
3915-24NIUIUINDYKillNinah Mirandaset Grace Purichia·
4015-25IUINDYIUINDYKillGrace Purichiaset Bailey Sinish·
Set 3
11-0IUINDYNIUAttack errBailey Sinish+0.5
22-0NIUNIUAttack errAmanda Stephens+0.8
32-1NIUIUINDYKillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+0.5
43-1IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
53-2NIUIUINDYKillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+0.5
63-3IUINDYIUINDYAceIU Indyaced Ava Grevengoed+0.8
74-3IUINDYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
84-4NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+0.5
94-5IUINDYIUINDYBlockedRylea Alvinblk Chloe Macias+0.8
105-5IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.6
115-6NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+0.5
126-6IUINDYNIU×3KillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
137-6NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahl+0.9
148-6NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
158-7NIUIUINDYAttack errKatie Pahl+0.6
169-7IUINDYNIUKillNaomi Dowdset Ava Grevengoed+0.7
179-8NIUIUINDYAttack errKatie Pahl+0.6
1810-8IUINDYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+0.7
1911-8NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+1.0
2011-9NIUIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.6
2111-10IUINDYIUINDYKillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+1.0
2212-10IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.8
2313-10NIUNIUBlockedBailey Sinishblk Rylea Alvin, Viktoria Djukic+1.1
2413-11NIUIUINDYKillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+0.7
2514-11IUINDYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+0.8
2614-12NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+0.7
2715-12IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
2815-13NIUIUINDYAttack errKatie Pahl+0.7
2916-13IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
3017-13NIUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+1.1
3117-14NIUIUINDYServe errNIU+0.6
3218-14IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.8
3319-14NIUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
3419-15NIUIUINDYBlockedKatie Pahlblk Grace Purichia, Amanda Stephens+0.4
3520-15IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.7
3621-15NIUNIUAttack errBailey Sinish+0.6
3721-16NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Laura Roeder+0.2
3822-16IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+0.4
3923-16NIUNIUAttack errChloe Macias+0.3
4023-17NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+0.1
4124-17IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+0.1
4224-18NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia·
4325-18IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy·
Set 4
11-0NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+2.4
21-1NIUIUINDY×3KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+1.6
31-2IUINDYIUINDY×3BlockedRylea Alvinblk Bailey Sinish, Chloe Macias+2.2
41-3IUINDYIUINDY×3Attack errAva Grevengoed+2.0
52-3IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+1.4
63-3NIUNIUBlockedBailey Sinishblk Naomi Dowd, Rylea Alvin+2.3
73-4NIUIUINDYAttack errAva Grevengoed+1.6
84-4IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+1.7
94-5NIUIUINDYKillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+1.6
105-5IUINDYNIUKillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+1.7
115-6NIUIUINDYKillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+1.7
126-6IUINDYNIUBlockedJillian Tippmannblk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn+1.8
136-7NIUIUINDYServe errNIU+1.7
147-7IUINDYNIU×5Serve errIU Indy+1.9
158-7NIUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+2.9
169-7NIUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+3.1
1710-7NIUNIU×5BlockedJillian Tippmannblk Autumn Flynn, Ava Grevengoed+3.2
1811-7NIUNIU×5AceNIU+3.1
1911-8NIUIUINDYKillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+1.8
2012-8IUINDYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+2.3
2112-9NIUIUINDY×4KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+1.8
2212-10IUINDYIUINDY×4BlockedAva Grevengoedblk Grace Purichia, Chloe Macias+2.9
2312-11IUINDYIUINDY×4KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+3.1
2412-12IUINDYIUINDY×4KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+3.2
2513-12IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+2.5
2613-13NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+2.3
2714-13IUINDYNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+2.6
2815-13NIUNIUAceNIUaced Ninah Miranda+3.9
2915-14NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Grace Purichia+2.4
3016-14IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+2.9
3116-15NIUIUINDYBlockedAutumn Flynnblk Chloe Macias+2.5
3217-15IUINDYNIUServe errIU Indy+3.1
3317-16NIUIUINDYServe errKylie Schulze+2.6
3417-17IUINDYIUINDYKillNinah Mirandaset Grace Purichia+4.1
3518-17IUINDYNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+3.3
3618-18NIUIUINDYKillAmanda Stephensset Grace Purichia+3.0
3718-19IUINDYIUINDYBad setAva Grevengoed+4.5
3819-19IUINDYNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+3.2
3919-20NIUIUINDY×3KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+3.4
4019-21IUINDYIUINDY×3KillChloe Maciasset Grace Purichia+4.4
4119-22IUINDYIUINDY×3KillBailey Sinishset Grace Purichia+3.3
4220-22IUINDYNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.6
4320-23NIUIUINDYKillGrace Purichiaset Ninah Miranda+2.4
4420-24IUINDYIUINDYBad setViktoria Djukic+1.7
4521-24IUINDYNIUServe errGrace Purichia+0.4
4621-25NIUIUINDYKillJillian Tippmannset Laura Roeder+0.8

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).