FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayWCC

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

San Francisco def. Grand Canyon 3–0

(25-20, 25-22, 25-18)

Set	1*	2	3*	Sets
S FRAN	25	25	25	3
GCANYN	20	22	18	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GCANYN above 50 · S FRAN below

Biggest swing: 10.8% to San Francisco — set 2, S FRAN 24-22 GCANYN. Attack error by Gentry Oblad. GCANYN win probability 59% → 48%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S FRAN 10.3%89.7% GCANYN

San Francisco wins

3-0

1.4%

3-1

3.1%

3-2

5.8%

Grand Canyon wins

3-0

43.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.2%

S FRAN break %: 36.9% vs this opp
GCANYN break %: 46.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gentry ObladAttack error+10.8%
Attack error by Gentry Oblad
Set 2 · S FRAN 24-22 GCANYN · S FRAN 41% → 52%
02
Gentry ObladAttack error+7.1%
Attack error by Gentry Oblad
Set 2 · S FRAN 25-22 GCANYN · S FRAN 52% → 59%
03
Katariina KorhonenKill+7.1%
Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by Laura Amaro)
Set 2 · S FRAN 23-22 GCANYN · S FRAN 34% → 41%
04
S FRAN serverAce+6.3%
San Francisco ace on Gentry Oblad
Set 2 · S FRAN 20-19 GCANYN · S FRAN 31% → 37%
05
Emma NeukirchenKill+5.9%
Kill by Emma Neukirchen
Set 2 · S FRAN 22-21 GCANYN · S FRAN 33% → 39%
06
Katariina KorhonenAttack error+5.3%
Katariina Korhonen stuffed by Aubrey Goodere & Bella Nunez
Set 2 · S FRAN 22-22 GCANYN · GCANYN 61% → 66%
07
GCANYN serverService error+5.2%
Grand Canyon service error
Set 2 · S FRAN 21-20 GCANYN · S FRAN 33% → 38%
08
Kaela JenkinsKill+5.0%
Kill by Kaela Jenkins (set by Taylor Kubacak)
Set 2 · S FRAN 18-18 GCANYN · GCANYN 63% → 68%

Official NCAA box

Box score

San Franciscoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Petra FritzOH	3	10	3	31	.226	1	3	4	7	1	0	0	0	13
12Katariina KorhonenOH	3	9	4	25	.200	2	0	2	11	0	0	2	1	10
14Emma NeukirchenMB	3	6	0	10	.600	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	7
1Talula LenoirOH	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
16Maeve BaileyMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
13Jordan SmartS	3	2	0	2	1.000	13	1	2	11	0	0	0	0	3
8Anica BobicOH	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
4Adelynn LegatesS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
5Laura AmaroL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
19Hokulani PerezMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Piper JustissS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Simona IvanovaMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11True TakemotoDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	9	100	.310	36	5	13	45	3	1	10	6	75

Grand Canyonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
21Bella NunezS	3	7	3	19	.211	12	0	1	5	0	1	0.5	7.5
19Aubrey GoodereMB	3	6	0	9	.667	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	7
12Starr WilliamsOPP	3	6	4	23	.087	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	6
2Katie SchulzOH	3	3	1	21	.095	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	3
10Aubrey BellusMB	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
4Taylor KubacakS	3	0	0	0	–	20	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
9Macey HughesOPP	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
15Kaela Jenkins—	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Gentry ObladOH	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	2	0	3	2	0	0	3
18Milica ZigicOH	3	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
20Ana JaramazovicOPP	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Alayna Austin—	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	0
5Ali WiestOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Audrey CookS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Bella AndersonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	0
22Logan StrongDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Mia Vukic—	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Natalie GuerreroDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Nika ZupanicL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	16	105	.171	32	3	9	45	5	6	3	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 S FRAN · GCANYN 4

Set 1*

25-20

Longest run 3 S FRANGCANYN 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 S FRANGCANYN 4

Set 3*

25-18

Longest run 6 S FRANGCANYN 3

Bars above the line = Grand Canyon leads, below = San Francisco leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

San Francisco

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%3/3	40%2/5
2	75%3/4	25%1/4
3	100%3/3	25%1/4
4	50%2/4	67%4/6
5	67%2/3	33%1/3
6	40%2/5	33%1/3
All	68%15/22	40%10/25

Grand Canyon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%3/5	60%3/5
2	75%3/4	0%0/3
3	75%3/4	25%1/4
4	33%2/6	0%0/3
5	67%2/3	50%2/4
6	67%2/3	33%1/3
All	60%15/25	32%7/22

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	S FRAN-GCANYN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.0
2	0-2	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Ace	GCANYN server	aced TEAM	+0.9
3	0-3	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Petra Fritz		+0.8
4	1-3	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Talula Lenoir	set Jordan Smart	+0.6
5	2-3	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Jordan Smart	+1.0
6	2-4	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+0.7
7	2-5	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.8
8	3-5	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+0.6
9	3-6	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+0.6
10	4-6	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Talula Lenoir	set Katariina Korhonen	+0.6
11	5-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.0
12	6-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.3
13	6-7	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+0.9
14	7-7	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Adelynn Legates	+1.0
15	7-8	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+0.9
16	8-8	GCANYN	S FRAN	Attack err	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.0
17	8-9	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+0.9
18	9-9	GCANYN	S FRAN	Attack err	Ana Jaramazovic	set Gentry Oblad	+1.0
19	10-9	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Aubrey Bellus		+1.7
20	10-10	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.1
21	11-10	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.3
22	12-10	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ball handling	Starr Williams		+2.0
23	12-11	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.2
24	13-11	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.5
25	13-12	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.3
26	14-12	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Laura Amaro	+1.6
27	14-13	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.3
28	14-14	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+1.9
29	15-14	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Maeve Bailey	set Adelynn Legates	+1.6
30	15-15	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.4
31	16-15	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+1.7
32	17-15	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+2.5
33	18-15	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Petra Fritz		+2.6
34	18-16	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.4
35	19-16	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+2.0
36	19-17	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.5
37	20-17	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Jordan Smart	+2.2
38	20-18	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.5
39	21-18	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+2.3
40	22-18	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set True Takemoto	+2.6
41	23-18	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+1.6
42	23-19	S FRAN	GCANYN	Bad set	Jordan Smart		+0.4
43	24-19	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.0
44	24-20	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.2
45	25-20	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+0.6
Set 2
1	1-0	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz		+2.4
2	1-1	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.6
3	2-1	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Jordan Smart	set Laura Amaro	+1.9
4	2-2	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.7
5	2-3	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.2
6	3-3	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+1.7
7	4-3	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Taylor Kubacak	blk Katariina Korhonen, Emma Neukirchen, Bella Nunez	+2.7
8	4-4	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.8
9	5-4	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Talula Lenoir	set Jordan Smart	+2.1
10	6-4	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Alayna Austin	+3.1
11	7-4	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Katie Schulz	blk Katariina Korhonen, Maeve Bailey	+3.4
12	7-5	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Bella Nunez	+2.1
13	7-6	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced TEAM	+3.0
14	8-6	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Adelynn Legates	+2.5
15	9-6	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Katariina Korhonen	+3.6
16	9-7	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+2.2
17	10-7	GCANYN	S FRAN	Attack err	Starr Williams	blk Anica Bobic, Maeve Bailey	+2.8
18	11-7	S FRAN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen		+3.9
19	11-8	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.2
20	12-8	GCANYN	S FRAN	Attack err	Taylor Kubacak	blk Emma Neukirchen, Anica Bobic, Starr Williams	+2.9
21	12-9	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.3
22	13-9	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Talula Lenoir	set Petra Fritz	+3.0
23	14-9	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Alayna Austin	+3.9
24	14-10	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+2.0
25	15-10	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen		+2.9
26	15-11	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere		+2.0
27	16-11	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Laura Amaro		+3.0
28	16-12	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Macey Hughes	set Bella Nunez	+2.0
29	16-13	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Maeve Bailey		+3.5
30	17-13	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Adelynn Legates	+3.4
31	17-14	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+2.4
32	17-15	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Petra Fritz		+4.1
33	18-15	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+3.9
34	18-16	S FRAN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Anica Bobic	set Starr Williams	+2.9
35	18-17	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Kaela Jenkins	set Taylor Kubacak	+4.7
36	18-18	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Kaela Jenkins	set Taylor Kubacak	+5.0
37	18-19	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Adelynn Legates	+4.8
38	19-19	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Adelynn Legates	+3.6
39	20-19	S FRAN	S FRAN	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Gentry Oblad	+6.3
40	20-20	S FRAN	GCANYN	Attack err	Petra Fritz	set Laura Amaro	+4.1
41	21-20	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+5.2
42	21-21	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+4.6
43	22-21	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Emma Neukirchen		+5.9
44	22-22	S FRAN	GCANYN	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen	blk Aubrey Goodere, Bella Nunez	+5.3
45	23-22	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Laura Amaro	+7.1
46	24-22	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+10.8
47	25-22	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Gentry Oblad		+7.1
Set 3
1	0-1	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Petra Fritz	+2.7
2	1-1	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Jordan Smart	set Laura Amaro	+2.1
3	1-2	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.9
4	1-3	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen	blk Kaela Jenkins, Macey Hughes	+2.4
5	2-3	GCANYN	S FRAN	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.8
6	2-4	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Macey Hughes	set Bella Nunez	+1.7
7	2-5	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen		+2.2
8	3-5	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Talula Lenoir	set Jordan Smart	+1.6
9	4-5	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Bella Nunez	blk Maeve Bailey	+2.6
10	4-6	S FRAN	GCANYN	Serve err	S FRAN server		+1.8
11	5-6	GCANYN	S FRAN×6	Serve err	GCANYN server		+2.0
12	6-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×6	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Adelynn Legates	+3.3
13	7-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×6	Attack err	Bella Nunez		+3.8
14	8-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×6	Attack err	Kaela Jenkins		+4.3
15	9-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+4.7
16	10-6	S FRAN	S FRAN×6	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+4.8
17	10-7	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.8
18	11-7	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+3.7
19	11-8	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.8
20	12-8	GCANYN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Anica Bobic	set Adelynn Legates	+3.8
21	13-8	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Jordan Smart	+4.9
22	14-8	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+4.5
23	15-8	S FRAN	S FRAN×4	Ball handling	Aubrey Goodere		+3.8
24	15-9	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Macey Hughes	set Bella Nunez	+1.7
25	15-10	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+3.1
26	16-10	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Emma Neukirchen	set Jordan Smart	+3.3
27	17-10	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Ace	S FRAN server	aced Gentry Oblad	+3.6
28	18-10	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Ace	S FRAN server	aced TEAM	+2.6
29	18-11	S FRAN	GCANYN	Attack err	Katariina Korhonen	blk Macey Hughes, Aubrey Goodere	+1.0
30	19-11	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+1.7
31	19-12	S FRAN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Macey Hughes	set Bella Nunez	+0.8
32	19-13	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Kaela Jenkins	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.7
33	19-14	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Kaela Jenkins	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.5
34	20-14	GCANYN	S FRAN×3	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Jordan Smart	+2.9
35	21-14	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Kaela Jenkins		+2.6
36	22-14	S FRAN	S FRAN×3	Attack err	Starr Williams	blk Anica Bobic, Maeve Bailey	+1.3
37	22-15	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.3
38	22-16	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Milica Zigic	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.8
39	23-16	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Katariina Korhonen	set Adelynn Legates	+1.2
40	23-17	S FRAN	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.3
41	23-18	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Milica Zigic		+0.9
42	24-18	GCANYN	S FRAN	Kill	Petra Fritz	set Adelynn Legates	+1.4
43	25-18	S FRAN	S FRAN	Attack err	Milica Zigic		+0.4

Score shown after each rally, San Francisco first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.