Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Sacramento St. def. UC San Diego 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UC San Diego 63.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Sacramento St. won at UC San Diego 3-1 (25-23, 25-23, 15-25, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Sacramento St.'s Victoria Marthaler led with 20 kills.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
SAC ST252515253
UCSD232325161

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Skyler Gartin, and Sacramento St. needed each of them.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Sacramento St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, UC San Diego was RallyIQ's 63% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Sacramento St. 22–22 UC San Diego

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Sacramento St., enough to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Sacramento St.

    Sacramento St. 37% → 57%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Sacramento St. 12–13 UC San Diego

    Down 12–13, Sacramento St. scored 5 straight to lead 17–13.

    Sacramento St. 55% → 74%

UC San Diego above 50Sacramento St. belowMax swing 9.2%

Sacramento St.UC San Diego

Sideout %
Sacramento St. 59.1·UC San Diego 57.3
Break %
Sacramento St. 42.7·UC San Diego 40.9
Hitting
Sacramento St. .223·UC San Diego .272
Longest run
Sacramento St. 5·UC San Diego 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UC San Diego above 50 · Sacramento St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.2% SAC STrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.2% to Sacramento St. — set 2, SAC ST 25-23 UCSD. Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert). UCSD win probability 28% → 19%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SAC ST 39.7%60.3% UCSD

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
8.6%
3-1
14.5%
3-2
16.6%

UC San Diego wins

3-0
17.4%
3-1
23.0%
3-2
19.9%
SAC ST break %
41.6% vs this opp
UCSD break %
43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 2 · SAC ST 25-23 UCSD · SAC ST 72% → 81%

  2. 02

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 1 · SAC ST 25-23 UCSD · SAC ST 49% → 57%

  3. 03
    Molly McCluskeyAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Molly McCluskey

    Set 1 · SAC ST 23-22 UCSD · SAC ST 37% → 45%

  4. 04
    Madison JohnsonAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Madison Johnson

    Set 1 · SAC ST 24-22 UCSD · SAC ST 45% → 52%

  5. 05

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 2 · SAC ST 23-21 UCSD · SAC ST 66% → 73%

  6. 06
    UC San DiegoService error+6.8%

    UC San Diego service error

    Set 2 · SAC ST 24-22 UCSD · SAC ST 69% → 76%

  7. 07

    Mia Molnar stuffed by Molly McCluskey & Madison Johnson

    Set 2 · SAC ST 21-21 UCSD · UCSD 34% → 40%

  8. 08

    Ireland McNees stuffed by Mia Molnar & Nikola Gamlin

    Set 1 · SAC ST 22-22 UCSD · SAC ST 31% → 37%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420759.2200226210123
47114.42914150153.514.5
410021.47600040031.511.5
45411.09100000031.56.5
45533.00000131010.55.5
4215.20038121100425
42021.00010101100003
4000–1111000001
1112.000001100001
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5219148.22350985142161090
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411631.16100212206314
412638.158112123010.513.5
48115.46700000031.59.5
43010.30000000153.56.5
4000–2101020001
4000–2101400000
418434.4121004010119
4318.250190010010.53.5
4000–111500001
4000–6141610001
1000–100010000
Team totals5518136.272524106492161087

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Sacramento St. vs UC San Diego

Season series · Sacramento St. leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 SAC ST · UCSD 7

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 5 SAC STUCSD 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 SAC STUCSD 3

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 SAC STUCSD 7

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 3 SAC STUCSD 2

Bars above the line = UC San Diego leads, below = Sacramento St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
40%6/15
2
77%10/13
29%4/14
3
67%10/15
52%11/21
4
50%7/14
50%8/16
5
44%7/16
42%5/12
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
59%52/88
43%38/89

UC San Diego

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
36%5/14
2
50%10/20
39%7/18
3
56%9/16
33%5/15
4
50%7/14
47%7/15
5
58%7/12
56%9/16
6
70%7/10
30%3/10
All
57%51/89
41%36/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#SAC ST-UCSDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+2.3
21-1UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+1.7
31-2SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+1.7
42-2UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+1.8
52-3SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.8
63-3UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+1.8
74-3SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
84-4SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+1.9
95-4UCSDSAC STKillReese Ampiset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
106-4SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.7
116-5SAC STUCSD×3Serve errSacramento St.+1.9
126-6UCSDUCSD×3BlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+2.6
136-7UCSDUCSD×3KillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+2.6
147-7UCSDSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
157-8SAC STUCSD×3KillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+2.0
167-9UCSDUCSD×3BlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+2.6
177-10UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Keonahi'ilani Solaita+2.4
188-10UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
198-11SAC STUCSDServe errSacramento St.+1.9
209-11UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+1.7
2110-11SAC STSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+2.7
2210-12SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+2.1
2311-12UCSDSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
2412-12SAC STSAC STKillMia Molnarset Skyler Gartin+3.1
2512-13SAC STUCSD×3Attack errMakenna Wiepert+2.4
2612-14UCSDUCSD×3KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+3.1
2712-15UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Victoria Marthaler+2.8
2813-15UCSDSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
2914-15SAC STSAC STAttack errBrynne McGhie+3.0
3014-16SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+2.5
3114-17UCSDUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Hayden Shanafelt+3.0
3215-17UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
3315-18SAC STUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Gia Rivera+2.3
3416-18UCSDSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi+2.0
3517-18SAC STSAC STBlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Skyler Gartin, Makenna Wiepert+3.4
3617-19SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+3.0
3718-19UCSDSAC STKillReese Ampiset Lucia Barroso+2.7
3818-20SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+3.2
3919-20UCSDSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
4019-21SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+3.5
4119-22UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Paulina Baillie+3.8
4220-22UCSDSAC ST×5KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
4321-22SAC STSAC ST×5AceSacramento St.aced Ireland McNees+4.1
4422-22SAC STSAC ST×5BlockedIreland McNeesblk Mia Molnar, Nikola Gamlin+6.1
4523-22SAC STSAC ST×5Attack errMolly McCluskey+7.7
4624-22SAC STSAC ST×5Attack errMadison Johnson+7.7
4724-23SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+3.3
4825-23UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+7.9
Set 2
11-0SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi+2.8
21-1SAC STUCSD×3Serve errSacramento St.+2.0
31-2UCSDUCSD×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+2.7
41-3UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Victoria Marthaler+2.6
52-3UCSDSAC STKillMia Molnarset Reese Ampi+2.0
63-3SAC STSAC STBlockedIreland McNeesblk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin+2.8
73-4SAC STUCSDBlockedMia Molnarblk Madison Johnson, Ireland McNees+2.1
84-4UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.2
95-4SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Paulina Baillie+3.0
105-5SAC STUCSDServe errSacramento St.+2.2
116-5UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
126-6SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+2.3
137-6UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
147-7SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Paulina Baillie+2.4
158-7UCSDSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
168-8SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+2.4
179-8UCSDSAC STBlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Skyler Gartin, Keonahi'ilani Solaita+2.6
189-9SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Paulina Baillie+2.5
199-10UCSDUCSDBlockedMia Molnarblk Molly McCluskey, Madison Johnson+3.4
2010-10UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+2.6
2110-11SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Paulina Baillie+2.6
2211-11UCSDSAC STBlockedIreland McNeesblk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar+2.7
2312-11SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Dillyn Griffin+3.8
2412-12SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+2.8
2512-13UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+3.8
2613-13UCSDSAC ST×5Serve errUC San Diego+2.9
2714-13SAC STSAC ST×5Attack errGia Rivera+4.1
2815-13SAC STSAC ST×5KillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+4.2
2916-13SAC STSAC ST×5BlockedGia Riverablk Nikola Gamlin, Makenna Wiepert+4.0
3017-13SAC STSAC ST×5AceSacramento St.aced Molly McCluskey+3.6
3117-14SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+2.1
3217-15UCSDUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+3.5
3318-15UCSDSAC STKillMakenna Wiepertset Reese Ampi+3.3
3419-15SAC STSAC STAttack errMolly McCluskey+3.8
3519-16SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+2.0
3620-16UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+2.9
3720-17SAC STUCSD×3KillGia Riveraset Paulina Baillie+2.0
3820-18UCSDUCSD×3KillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+3.7
3920-19UCSDUCSD×3KillLucia Barroso+4.8
4021-19UCSDSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi+4.6
4121-20SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Dillyn Griffin+3.8
4221-21UCSDUCSDBlockedMia Molnarblk Molly McCluskey, Madison Johnson+6.5
4322-21UCSDSAC STAttack errIreland McNees+5.8
4423-21SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+7.6
4523-22SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+4.1
4624-22UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+6.8
4724-23SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+3.8
4825-23UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+9.2
Set 3
10-1UCSDUCSDBad setMakenna Wiepert+2.1
21-1UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.6
31-2SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+1.6
41-3UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Dillyn Griffin+2.0
52-3UCSDSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.5
62-4SAC STUCSDAttack errVictoria Marthaler+1.6
72-5UCSDUCSDBlockedMia Molnarblk Gia Rivera+2.0
83-5UCSDSAC STAttack errGia Rivera+1.4
94-5SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+2.1
104-6SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+1.6
114-7UCSDUCSDBlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Brynne McGhie, Lucia Barroso+2.0
125-7UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+1.5
136-7SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Ireland McNees+2.2
146-8SAC STUCSD×7Serve errSacramento St.+1.7
156-9UCSDUCSD×7Attack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+2.1
166-10UCSDUCSD×7KillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+1.9
176-11UCSDUCSD×7KillGia Rivera+1.6
186-12UCSDUCSD×7BlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+1.3
196-13UCSDUCSD×7KillGia Rivera+1.0
206-14UCSDUCSD×7Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.7
217-14UCSDSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
228-14SAC STSAC STBlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Skyler Gartin+0.7
238-15SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Ireland McNees+0.7
249-15UCSDSAC STKillCharlee Leppset Reese Ampi+0.5
2510-15SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Dillyn Griffin+1.0
2610-16SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.9
2710-17UCSDUCSDAttack errSkyler Gartin+0.9
2811-17UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+0.4
2911-18SAC STUCSDServe errSacramento St.+0.6
3012-18UCSDSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
3113-18SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedBrynne McGhieblk Victoria Marthaler+0.8
3214-18SAC STSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlin+1.2
3314-19SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+1.2
3414-20UCSDUCSDAttack errVictoria Marthaler+1.1
3515-20UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+0.5
3615-21SAC STUCSD×5KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+0.7
3715-22UCSDUCSD×5KillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+0.5
3815-23UCSDUCSD×5AceUC San Diego+0.2
3915-24UCSDUCSD×5Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.1
4015-25UCSDUCSD×5BlockedCharlee Leppblk Lucia Barroso·
Set 4
11-0SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.7
22-0SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errIreland McNees+3.8
33-0SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
43-1SAC STUCSDBlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Lucia Barroso, Molly McCluskey+2.6
54-1UCSDSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+3.0
65-1SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
75-2SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Paulina Baillie+2.5
85-3UCSDUCSDAttack errVictoria Marthaler+3.7
96-3UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+3.1
107-3SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+3.9
117-4SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+2.6
128-4UCSDSAC STServe errUC San Diego+3.0
138-5SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+2.6
149-5UCSDSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+3.1
159-6SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Brynne McGhie+2.6
169-7UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+3.9
1710-7UCSDSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+3.4
1810-8SAC STUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+3.0
1911-8UCSDSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+3.5
2011-9SAC STUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+3.1
2111-10UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+4.5
2212-10UCSDSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
2312-11SAC STUCSDServe errSacramento St.+3.5
2413-11UCSDSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+3.9
2514-11SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Molly McCluskey+5.0
2614-12SAC STUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+3.3
2715-12UCSDSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+4.0
2816-12SAC STSAC STAttack errIreland McNees+4.7
2916-13SAC STUCSDServe errSacramento St.+2.8
3017-13UCSDSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.7
3118-13SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.aced Ireland McNees+3.9
3219-13SAC STSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
3319-14SAC STUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Jaedyn Houston+1.3
3420-14UCSDSAC ST×3KillMakenna Wiepertset Amy Ito+2.1
3521-14SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.aced Jaedyn Houston+1.6
3622-14SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedGia Riverablk Skyler Gartin, Makenna Wiepert+0.8
3722-15SAC STUCSDKillGia Riveraset Marleena Catalan+0.2
3823-15UCSDSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
3924-15SAC STSAC STAttack errMolly McCluskey+0.2
4024-16SAC STUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan·
4125-16UCSDSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert·

Score shown after each rally, Sacramento St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).