Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Sacramento St. def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Sacramento St. 94.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 8:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Sacramento St. beat visiting Cal St. Fullerton 3-1 (25-15, 25-16, 21-25, 25-19) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Sacramento St.'s Victoria Marthaler led with 18 kills, and Reese Ampi added 21 digs.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set1234Sets
CSFULL151625191
SAC ST252521253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sacramento St. in control, mostly on serve.

Win probability never moved more than 1.5 points on one rally; Cal St. Fullerton topped out at 7% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Sacramento St. at 94%.

Cal St. FullertonSacramento St.
  • Break %+14.0 pts
    35.549.5

    47 of 95 on serve vs 27 of 76, so Cal St. Fullerton's sideout was 50.5%.

  • Hitting+.125
    .142.267

    Kills and errors: 56–21 vs 34–18.

  • Longest run+1
    56

    Sacramento St. scored 6 straight in the second set to stretch a 15–10 lead to 21–10. That set ended 25–16.

Sacramento St. above 50Cal St. Fullerton belowMax swing 1.5%

Cal St. FullertonSacramento St.

Aces
Cal St. Fullerton 2·Sacramento St. 15
Serve err
Cal St. Fullerton 6·Sacramento St. 17
Blocks
Cal St. Fullerton 13·Sacramento St. 105 BS · 16 BA vs 2 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Cal St. Fullerton 42·Sacramento St. 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Sacramento St. above 50 · Cal St. Fullerton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.5% CSFULLrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 4, CSFULL 6-5 SAC ST. Kill by Zariah Crosby. SAC ST win probability 95% → 93%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSFULL 7.2%92.8% SAC ST

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.1%
3-2
4.2%

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
49.8%
3-1
31.0%
3-2
12.0%
CSFULL break %
37.0% vs this opp
SAC ST break %
48.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Zariah CrosbyKill+1.5%

    Kill by Zariah Crosby

    Set 4 · CSFULL 6-5 SAC ST · CSFULL 5% → 7%

  2. 02
    Sibley OsterBad set+1.3%

    Bad set by Sibley Oster

    Set 4 · CSFULL 6-7 SAC ST · SAC ST 94% → 96%

  3. 03
    Kaia HerwegKill+1.2%

    Kill by Kaia Herweg (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 4 · CSFULL 5-5 SAC ST · CSFULL 4% → 5%

  4. 04
    Hannah HassAce+1.1%

    Ace by Hannah Hass on Reese Ampi

    Set 4 · CSFULL 13-15 SAC ST · CSFULL 2% → 3%

  5. 05
    Amy ItoAce+1.1%

    Ace by Amy Ito on Kaia Herweg

    Set 4 · CSFULL 6-8 SAC ST · SAC ST 96% → 97%

  6. 06

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 4 · CSFULL 6-6 SAC ST · SAC ST 93% → 94%

  7. 07

    Mia Molnar stuffed by Zariah Crosby & Sofia Shine

    Set 4 · CSFULL 4-5 SAC ST · CSFULL 3% → 4%

  8. 08

    Ace by Makenna Wiepert on Parys Taylor

    Set 4 · CSFULL 0-1 SAC ST · SAC ST 95% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
46317.1760002046713
49531.12910252111.510.5
48114.5000110002110
46324.12500035031.57.5
43417-.059000000003
4002.0001602600000
4011-1.0001100300422
4000–1001220000
3102.500001540001
3000–010610001
2115.000000000001
Team totals3418113.142292642155161375
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418949.18401451010.519.5
410114.64304350132.516.5
49224.292121100111.512.5
45214.21400000052.57.5
4305.6004932600217
4000–1331100003
49723.0870010004211
41011.0004222110003
11011.000001000001
Team totals5621131.2675515175822161096

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CSFULL · SAC ST 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 CSFULLSAC ST 5

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 CSFULLSAC ST 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 CSFULLSAC ST 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLSAC ST 5

Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal St. Fullerton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%9/20
10%1/10
2
44%8/18
50%8/16
3
44%8/18
47%7/15
4
67%8/12
53%9/17
5
53%8/15
20%2/10
6
58%7/12
0%0/8
All
51%48/95
36%27/76

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%10/16
38%5/13
2
67%8/12
57%12/21
3
42%8/19
56%10/18
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
89%8/9
38%5/13
6
100%7/7
56%9/16
All
64%49/76
49%47/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#CSFULL-SAC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CSFULLSAC STKillMakenna Wiepertset Amy Ito+0.5
21-1SAC STCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Mia Feldhaus+0.5
31-2CSFULLSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.5
41-3SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+0.6
52-3SAC STCSFULL×3Serve errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+0.5
63-3CSFULLCSFULL×3AceJaiden Mojicaaced Victoria Marthaler+0.8
74-3CSFULLCSFULL×3BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Sibley Oster, Zariah Crosby+0.9
84-4CSFULLSAC STBlockedZariah Crosbyblk Skyler Gartin+0.6
94-5SAC STSAC STAceSkyler Gartinaced Sofia Shine+0.8
105-5SAC STCSFULLServe errSkyler Gartin+0.6
115-6CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.6
126-6SAC STCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.7
136-7CSFULLSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.6
146-8SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedSibley Osterblk Keonahi'ilani Solaita+0.7
156-9SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errSofia Shine+0.6
167-9SAC STCSFULLServe errVictoria Marthaler+0.5
177-10CSFULLSAC STServe errItalia Bernal+0.4
188-10SAC STCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.5
198-11CSFULLSAC ST×5KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.5
208-12SAC STSAC ST×5AceMakenna Wiepertaced Sofia Shine+0.5
218-13SAC STSAC ST×5KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
228-14SAC STSAC ST×5KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
238-15SAC STSAC ST×5KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
249-15SAC STCSFULLServe errMakenna Wiepert+0.1
259-16CSFULLSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
269-17SAC STSAC STBlockedBella Rislingblk Skyler Gartin, Victoria Marthaler+0.1
2710-17SAC STCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+0.1
2810-18CSFULLSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
2910-19SAC STSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert·
3010-20SAC STSAC ST×3AceSkyler Gartinaced Jaiden Mojica·
3111-20SAC STCSFULLServe errSkyler Gartin·
3212-20CSFULLCSFULLBlockedMia Molnarblk Zariah Crosby, Sofia Shine·
3312-21CSFULLSAC STServe errKaia Herweg·
3413-21SAC STCSFULLServe errAmy Ito·
3513-22CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert·
3614-22SAC STCSFULLServe errVictoria Marthaler·
3714-23CSFULLSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert·
3815-23SAC STCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal·
3915-24CSFULLSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert·
4015-25SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi·
Set 2
11-0SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.4
22-0CSFULLCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.6
32-1CSFULLSAC ST×4KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
42-2SAC STSAC ST×4BlockedKaia Herwegblk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar+0.5
52-3SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errBella Risling+0.5
62-4SAC STSAC ST×4AceKeonahi'ilani Solaitaaced Sofia Shine+0.4
73-4SAC STCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Kaia Herweg+0.3
83-5CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
93-6SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
104-6SAC STCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.3
114-7CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
125-7SAC STCSFULLServe errAmy Ito+0.3
135-8CSFULLSAC ST×3KillMakenna Wiepertset Keonahi'ilani Solaita+0.3
145-9SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedNeeva Gaineblk Nikola Gamlin, Keonahi'ilani Solaita+0.3
155-10SAC STSAC ST×3AceVictoria Marthaleraced Sofia Shine+0.2
166-10SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.2
176-11CSFULLSAC STAttack errBella Risling+0.2
186-12SAC STSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
197-12SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.1
207-13CSFULLSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
217-14SAC STSAC STAttack errHannah Hass+0.1
228-14SAC STCSFULLServe errMakenna Wiepert+0.1
239-14CSFULLCSFULLBlockedSkyler Gartinblk Zariah Crosby+0.1
249-15CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
2510-15SAC STCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+0.1
2610-16CSFULLSAC ST×6KillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+0.1
2710-17SAC STSAC ST×6BlockedZariah Crosbyblk Nikola Gamlin, Mia Molnar+0.1
2810-18SAC STSAC ST×6KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
2910-19SAC STSAC ST×6AceSkyler Gartinaced Parys Taylor·
3010-20SAC STSAC ST×6KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert·
3110-21SAC STSAC ST×6BlockedKaia Herwegblk Mia Molnar, Nikola Gamlin·
3211-21SAC STCSFULL×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler·
3312-21CSFULLCSFULL×3BlockedMia Molnarblk Zariah Crosby·
3413-21CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errMia Molnar·
3513-22CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert·
3614-22SAC STCSFULLServe errMia Molnar·
3715-22CSFULLCSFULLAttack errNikola Gamlin·
3815-23CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert·
3915-24SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert·
4016-24SAC STCSFULLServe errVictoria Marthaler·
4116-25CSFULLSAC STServe errItalia Bernal·
Set 3
10-1CSFULLSAC STAttack errKaia Herweg+0.1
21-1SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.2
32-1CSFULLCSFULLBlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Zariah Crosby, Kaia Herweg+0.3
42-2CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
53-2SAC STCSFULL×5KillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.2
64-2CSFULLCSFULL×5Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.3
75-2CSFULLCSFULL×5KillParys Taylorset Sibley Oster+0.3
86-2CSFULLCSFULL×5Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.4
97-2CSFULLCSFULL×5BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Sibley Oster, Zariah Crosby+0.4
107-3CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
117-4SAC STSAC STAceSkyler Gartinaced Parys Taylor+0.3
128-4SAC STCSFULLBad setSkyler Gartin+0.3
138-5CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
149-5SAC STCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.3
159-6CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.2
1610-6SAC STCSFULLServe errVictoria Marthaler+0.3
1710-7CSFULLSAC STAttack errKaia Herweg+0.3
1811-7SAC STCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Italia Bernal+0.3
1911-8CSFULLSAC STServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.3
2011-9SAC STSAC STAttack errBella Risling+0.4
2112-9SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.3
2213-9CSFULLCSFULLAttack errMia Molnar+0.5
2313-10CSFULLSAC ST×3Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.3
2413-11SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errZariah Crosby+0.4
2513-12SAC STSAC ST×3AceKeonahi'ilani Solaitaaced Parys Taylor+0.4
2614-12SAC STCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.4
2714-13CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
2815-13SAC STCSFULL×4BlockedMia Molnarblk Kaia Herweg+0.4
2916-13CSFULLCSFULL×4KillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.5
3017-13CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedNikola Gamlinblk Zariah Crosby+0.5
3118-13CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.5
3218-14CSFULLSAC ST×3Serve errKaia Herweg+0.2
3318-15SAC STSAC ST×3AceAmy Itoaced Sofia Shine+0.4
3418-16SAC STSAC ST×3AceAmy Itoaced Mia Feldhaus+0.5
3519-16SAC STCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.5
3620-16CSFULLCSFULLBlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Sibley Oster, Hannah Hass+0.6
3720-17CSFULLSAC ST×3KillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
3820-18SAC STSAC ST×3KillMakenna Wiepertset Reese Ampi+0.5
3920-19SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedSofia Shineblk Nikola Gamlin, Makenna Wiepert+0.6
4021-19SAC STCSFULLServe errCharlee Lepp+0.6
4121-20CSFULLSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.5
4222-20SAC STCSFULLServe errReese Ampi+0.7
4323-20CSFULLCSFULLKillHannah Hass+0.8
4423-21CSFULLSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
4524-21SAC STCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.7
4625-21CSFULLCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.4
Set 4
10-1SAC STSAC ST×3AceMakenna Wiepertaced Parys Taylor+1.0
20-2SAC STSAC ST×3KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.9
30-3SAC STSAC ST×3KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.7
41-3SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal+0.6
51-4CSFULLSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.5
62-4SAC STCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+0.6
72-5CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.6
83-5SAC STCSFULL×4Serve errSkyler Gartin+0.6
94-5CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedMia Molnarblk Zariah Crosby, Sofia Shine+1.0
105-5CSFULLCSFULL×4KillKaia Herwegset Makenna Wiepert+1.2
116-5CSFULLCSFULL×4KillZariah Crosby+1.5
126-6CSFULLSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.0
136-7SAC STSAC ST×3Bad setSibley Oster+1.3
146-8SAC STSAC ST×3AceAmy Itoaced Kaia Herweg+1.1
157-8SAC STCSFULLBlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Sibley Oster, Zariah Crosby+0.9
167-9CSFULLSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+0.8
178-9SAC STCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.9
188-10CSFULLSAC ST×5BlockedSofia Shineblk Makenna Wiepert, Nikola Gamlin+0.9
198-11SAC STSAC ST×5AceReese Ampiaced Kaia Herweg+1.0
208-12SAC STSAC ST×5AceReese Ampi+0.8
218-13SAC STSAC ST×5KillReese Ampi+0.6
228-14SAC STSAC ST×5KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
239-14SAC STCSFULLServe errReese Ampi+0.3
249-15CSFULLSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
2510-15SAC STCSFULL×4KillKaia Herwegset Italia Bernal+0.3
2611-15CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Zariah Crosby+0.5
2712-15CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errMia Molnar+0.8
2813-15CSFULLCSFULL×4AceHannah Hassaced Reese Ampi+1.1
2913-16CSFULLSAC ST×4KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.9
3013-17SAC STSAC ST×4KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.9
3113-18SAC STSAC ST×4BlockedKaia Herwegblk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin+0.6
3213-19SAC STSAC ST×4KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
3314-19SAC STCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Italia Bernal+0.2
3415-19CSFULLCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.4
3515-20CSFULLSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
3616-20SAC STCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.3
3716-21CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
3817-21SAC STCSFULLServe errAmy Ito+0.3
3917-22CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
4018-22SAC STCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.2
4118-23CSFULLSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+0.4
4219-23SAC STCSFULLBlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Sofia Shine, Hannah Hass+0.2
4319-24CSFULLSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
4419-25SAC STSAC STAceMakenna Wiepertaced Mia Feldhaus+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).