FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeCAA

William & Mary def. ETSU 3–0

(25-20, 25-19, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ETSU	20	19	21	0
WM&MRY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WM&MRY above 50 · ETSU below

Biggest swing: 4.0% to William & Mary — set 2, ETSU 10-13 WM&MRY. Kill by Katherine Arnason. WM&MRY win probability 56% → 60%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ETSU 73.0%27.0% WM&MRY

ETSU wins

3-0

25.4%

3-1

28.0%

3-2

19.6%

William & Mary wins

3-0

4.9%

3-1

9.3%

3-2

12.7%

ETSU break %: 44.9% vs this opp
WM&MRY break %: 40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katherine ArnasonKill+4.0%
Kill by Katherine Arnason
Set 2 · ETSU 10-13 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 56% → 60%
02
Makayla BaysAttack error+4.0%
Makayla Bays stuffed by Sophia Van Name & Olivia Westfort
Set 3 · ETSU 14-17 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 85% → 89%
03
Katherine ArnasonKill+4.0%
Kill by Katherine Arnason (set by Avery Horejsi)
Set 1 · ETSU 17-20 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 37% → 41%
04
Makayla BaysAttack error+3.9%
Attack error by Makayla Bays
Set 2 · ETSU 9-11 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 52% → 56%
05
Phoenix FogelAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Phoenix Fogel
Set 2 · ETSU 10-14 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 60% → 64%
06
Karis ChatfieldAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Karis Chatfield
Set 1 · ETSU 15-17 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 32% → 36%
07
Teagan PociusKill+3.7%
Kill by Teagan Pocius (set by Cate Hatfield)
Set 2 · ETSU 9-10 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 48% → 52%
08
Audrey BrckaKill+3.7%
Kill by Audrey Brcka (set by Cate Hatfield)
Set 3 · ETSU 15-19 WM&MRY · WM&MRY 90% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

ETSUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Makayla BaysOH	3	9	8	25	.040	0	3	0	6	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
15Karis ChatfieldOH	3	10	4	26	.231	0	1	3	7	1	0	0	0	11
20Elizabeth AylwardOH	3	5	4	18	.056	0	1	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Phoenix FogelMB	3	4	4	15	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
2Sophia DavisOH	3	2	2	15	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Kennedy BoatmanS	2	0	0	0	–	12	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
1Gianna BlairMB	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
12Alex KreutzmannS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
11Melanie MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	3	0	0	0	0
4Ryan JomoL/DS	2	1	0	1	1.000	1	1	0	6	3	0	0	0	2
17Bailey GohlkeS	2	0	0	0	–	8	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
8Raegan WallerMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Malia BrinkmanOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	23	110	.091	31	7	6	45	9	1	6	4	60

William & Maryhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Audrey BrckaOH	3	8	2	20	.300	0	4	3	6	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
12Teagan PociusMB	3	10	0	14	.714	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
16Emily McKeeOH	3	6	3	18	.167	1	2	2	6	2	1	3	2.5	10.5
23Katherine ArnasonOH	3	7	2	24	.208	2	2	0	6	4	0	0	0	9
22Olivia WestfortMB	3	3	0	11	.273	0	0	1	0	0	3	5	5.5	8.5
4Cate HatfieldS	3	2	0	4	.500	26	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	2
9Ava CrabtreeOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
11Avery HorejsiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	0
6Sophia Van NameOH	2	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	1
2Regan HillOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
3Ally BoldenMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Tulasi NalluriL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	8	96	.292	31	9	11	44	7	4	12	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ETSU · WM&MRY 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 ETSUWM&MRY 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 ETSUWM&MRY 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 ETSUWM&MRY 5

Bars above the line = William & Mary leads, below = ETSU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

ETSU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	38%3/8
2	54%7/13	13%1/8
3	46%6/13	50%7/14
4	50%6/12	54%7/13
5	46%6/13	0%0/6
6	36%4/11	50%6/12
All	49%36/74	39%24/61

William & Mary

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	54%7/13
2	54%7/13	36%4/11
3	67%6/9	57%8/14
4	55%6/11	60%9/15
5	55%6/11	54%7/13
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	61%37/61	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	ETSU-WM&MRY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Phoenix Fogel	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.4
2	2-0	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Audrey Brcka		+1.9
3	2-1	ETSU	WM&MRY	Serve err	ETSU server		+1.4
4	3-1	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.4
5	3-2	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+1.4
6	3-3	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+2.1
7	4-3	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.6
8	5-3	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.0
9	5-4	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+1.5
10	6-4	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+1.5
11	6-5	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+1.5
12	7-5	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+1.5
13	7-6	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+1.6
14	7-7	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Karis Chatfield		+2.4
15	8-7	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.7
16	9-7	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.3
17	9-8	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+1.7
18	10-8	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.7
19	10-9	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Emily McKee	+1.7
20	10-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Phoenix Fogel		+2.6
21	11-10	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.9
22	12-10	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+2.5
23	12-11	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+1.8
24	12-12	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+2.8
25	13-12	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.1
26	14-12	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Cate Hatfield	+2.7
27	14-13	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Serve err	ETSU server		+1.9
28	14-14	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+3.0
29	14-15	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Makayla Bays	blk Olivia Westfort, Emily McKee	+3.4
30	15-15	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.4
31	15-16	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+2.7
32	15-17	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Karis Chatfield		+3.8
33	16-17	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.5
34	16-18	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Cate Hatfield	set Katherine Arnason	+3.0
35	17-18	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.6
36	17-19	ETSU	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+3.2
37	17-20	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Avery Horejsi	+4.0
38	17-21	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Audrey Brcka		+3.3
39	17-22	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+2.3
40	18-22	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Kennedy Boatman	+0.8
41	18-23	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+1.5
42	19-23	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Phoenix Fogel	set Kennedy Boatman	+0.6
43	20-23	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.5
44	20-24	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+2.1
45	20-25	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward	blk Olivia Westfort	+0.9
Set 2
1	1-0	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU server	aced Avery Horejsi	+2.6
2	1-1	ETSU	WM&MRY	Serve err	ETSU server		+2.0
3	2-1	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
4	2-2	ETSU	WM&MRY	Serve err	ETSU server		+2.1
5	2-3	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Ryan Jomo	+3.0
6	3-3	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.1
7	4-3	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.8
8	4-4	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Cate Hatfield	+2.2
9	4-5	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Bad set	Alex Kreutzmann		+3.2
10	4-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Ryan Jomo	+3.3
11	5-6	WM&MRY	ETSU×3	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.3
12	6-6	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU server	aced Katherine Arnason	+3.2
13	7-6	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU server	aced Katherine Arnason	+3.1
14	7-7	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+2.4
15	8-7	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.3
16	8-8	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+2.4
17	9-8	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Melanie Morris	+2.4
18	9-9	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+2.5
19	9-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.7
20	9-11	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+3.9
21	10-11	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.6
22	10-12	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.0
23	10-13	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Katherine Arnason		+4.0
24	10-14	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Phoenix Fogel		+3.8
25	11-14	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Ryan Jomo	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.3
26	11-15	ETSU	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+2.9
27	11-16	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.4
28	11-17	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Katherine Arnason	set Avery Horejsi	+2.7
29	11-18	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Cate Hatfield	set Avery Horejsi	+2.0
30	12-18	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.9
31	12-19	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+1.4
32	12-20	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Gianna Blair	blk Olivia Westfort	+1.1
33	13-20	WM&MRY	ETSU×4	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.4
34	14-20	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.9
35	15-20	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Ryan Jomo	+1.4
36	16-20	ETSU	ETSU×4	Ace	ETSU server	aced Emily McKee	+2.1
37	16-21	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Karis Chatfield	blk Olivia Westfort, Audrey Brcka	+2.4
38	17-21	WM&MRY	ETSU	Attack err	Katherine Arnason		+1.3
39	17-22	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+2.3
40	18-22	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.1
41	19-22	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU server	aced Katherine Arnason	+2.5
42	19-23	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Serve err	ETSU server		+3.2
43	19-24	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+2.1
44	19-25	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Teagan Pocius		+0.6
Set 3
1	1-0	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.7
2	1-1	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+1.8
3	1-2	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Team	+2.5
4	2-2	WM&MRY	ETSU×5	Attack err	Emily McKee	blk Gianna Blair	+1.8
5	3-2	ETSU	ETSU×5	Ace	ETSU server	aced Emily McKee	+2.4
6	4-2	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Sophia Van Name	blk Gianna Blair, Makayla Bays	+2.3
7	5-2	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Audrey Brcka	blk Gianna Blair, Sophia Davis	+2.1
8	6-2	ETSU	ETSU×5	Bad set	Emily McKee		+1.8
9	6-3	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
10	7-3	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+1.3
11	7-4	ETSU	WM&MRY×4	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+1.3
12	7-5	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Melanie Morris	+2.0
13	7-6	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Melanie Morris	+2.4
14	7-7	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×4	Attack err	Phoenix Fogel	blk Olivia Westfort	+2.7
15	8-7	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.0
16	8-8	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Katherine Arnason	+2.1
17	8-9	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Sophia Davis	blk Emily McKee, Olivia Westfort	+3.1
18	8-10	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Ryan Jomo	+3.2
19	9-10	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.2
20	10-10	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+3.1
21	10-11	ETSU	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+2.5
22	10-12	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Kill	Emily McKee	set Cate Hatfield	+3.5
23	10-13	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×3	Attack err	Karis Chatfield	blk Teagan Pocius, Emily McKee	+3.5
24	11-13	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.2
25	12-13	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Emily McKee	blk Gianna Blair, Elizabeth Aylward	+3.3
26	12-14	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+2.8
27	13-14	WM&MRY	ETSU	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+2.5
28	13-15	ETSU	WM&MRY	Serve err	ETSU server		+2.9
29	14-15	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.6
30	14-16	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Teagan Pocius	set Cate Hatfield	+3.1
31	14-17	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays	blk Sophia Van Name, Olivia Westfort	+4.0
32	15-17	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.4
33	15-18	ETSU	WM&MRY	Attack err	Makayla Bays	blk Olivia Westfort, Sophia Van Name	+3.2
34	15-19	WM&MRY	WM&MRY	Kill	Audrey Brcka	set Cate Hatfield	+3.7
35	16-19	WM&MRY	ETSU	Kill	Phoenix Fogel	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.9
36	16-20	ETSU	WM&MRY×5	Attack err	Sophia Davis		+2.8
37	16-21	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Attack err	Phoenix Fogel	blk Emily McKee	+2.8
38	16-22	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Melanie Morris	+1.7
39	16-23	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Karis Chatfield	+0.8
40	16-24	WM&MRY	WM&MRY×5	Ace	WM&MRY server	aced Makayla Bays	+0.3
41	17-24	WM&MRY	ETSU×5	Serve err	WM&MRY server		+0.0
42	18-24	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Emily McKee		+0.1
43	19-24	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Phoenix Fogel	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.2
44	20-24	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.4
45	21-24	ETSU	ETSU×5	Ace	ETSU server	aced Katherine Arnason	+1.0
46	21-25	ETSU	WM&MRY	Kill	Olivia Westfort	set Cate Hatfield	+1.8

Score shown after each rally, ETSU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.