FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMOUNTAIN-WEST

0:3

HomePAC-12

Colorado St. def. UC Davis 3–0

(25-21, 25-16, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UC DAV	21	16	16	0
CO ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CO ST above 50 · UC DAV below

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Colorado St. — set 1, UC DAV 20-21 CO ST. Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec). CO ST win probability 81% → 85%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UC DAV 15.8%84.2% CO ST

UC Davis wins

3-0

2.4%

3-1

5.1%

3-2

8.3%

Colorado St. wins

3-0

36.1%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

16.9%

UC DAV break %: 37.5% vs this opp
CO ST break %: 45.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Eve WilsonKill+3.8%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · UC DAV 20-21 CO ST · CO ST 81% → 85%
02
Brooke HibinoAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Brooke Hibino
Set 1 · UC DAV 20-22 CO ST · CO ST 85% → 88%
03
Breeze CzapinskiKill+3.1%
Kill by Breeze Czapinski (set by Mia Starr)
Set 1 · UC DAV 17-16 CO ST · UC DAV 17% → 20%
04
CO ST serverService error+2.8%
Colorado St. service error
Set 1 · UC DAV 20-19 CO ST · UC DAV 19% → 21%
05
Kekua RichardsAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Kekua Richards
Set 1 · UC DAV 16-16 CO ST · UC DAV 15% → 17%
06
Halle JamesonAttack error+2.6%
Halle Jameson stuffed by Breeze Czapinski & Allie Caldwell
Set 1 · UC DAV 19-18 CO ST · UC DAV 18% → 21%
07
Eve WilsonKill+2.5%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · UC DAV 21-23 CO ST · CO ST 86% → 89%
08
UC DAV serverService error+2.5%
UC Davis service error
Set 1 · UC DAV 20-20 CO ST · CO ST 79% → 81%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UC Davisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Ally ChandlerMB	3	8	1	14	.500	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
7Gianna BoganOH	3	7	2	16	.313	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	8
1Breeze CzapinskiOH	3	6	7	25	-.040	1	0	4	2	1	1	0.5	6.5
16Brooke HibinoOH	3	3	8	18	-.278	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3
2Mia StarrS	3	1	2	4	-.250	26	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
10Allie CaldwellMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
5Rachel DunaganOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	5	1	0	0	1
14Ximena Cordero BarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	15	1	0	0	0
17Isabella UmpierreOPP	2	2	5	10	-.300	0	1	3	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Demi ColeMB	2	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
18Khloe WongDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Laela BurgessS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	25	92	.054	30	3	13	32	5	4	2	53

Colorado St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Halle JamesonOH	3	9	2	28	.250	1	0	1	2	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
27Eve WilsonMB	3	5	1	10	.400	0	1	3	0	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
33Kekua RichardsMB	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	4	9
23Erin DebiecS	3	2	0	4	.500	19	2	2	7	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
17Sophie StephensonOPP	3	1	0	6	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	2
26Maria BrunOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
21Ella StowellOH	3	8	3	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
24Hayden GrimesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Karsyn FetzerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	4	9	2	0	0	0	0
9Silvie GraetzerMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
3Brooke HolmanOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Jaedyn RileyS	1	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	8	75	.320	27	5	12	26	3	2	22	13	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UC DAV · CO ST 7

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 UC DAVCO ST 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 UC DAVCO ST 5

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 UC DAVCO ST 7

Bars above the line = Colorado St. leads, below = UC Davis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UC Davis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%7/21	17%1/6
2	70%7/10	53%8/15
3	58%7/12	22%2/9
4	50%5/10	30%3/10
5	31%4/13	17%1/6
6	50%4/8	50%4/8
All	46%34/74	35%19/54

Colorado St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	63%10/16
2	78%7/9	50%7/14
3	58%7/12	30%3/10
4	100%5/5	55%6/11
5	50%5/10	64%9/14
6	100%4/4	56%5/9
All	65%35/54	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	UC DAV-CO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Karsyn Fetzer	+1.4
2	1-1	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Mia Starr	+1.1
3	1-2	UC DAV	CO ST	Attack err	Gianna Bogan		+1.0
4	2-2	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.1
5	2-3	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.0
6	3-3	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.1
7	4-3	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Eve Wilson		+1.8
8	4-4	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.2
9	5-4	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.3
10	5-5	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+1.2
11	5-6	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Rachel Dunagan	+1.7
12	5-7	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
13	6-7	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.1
14	6-8	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+1.1
15	6-9	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+1.3
16	7-9	CO ST	UC DAV	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.9
17	7-10	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski	blk Kekua Richards, Ella Stowell	+0.9
18	7-11	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski	blk Kekua Richards, Halle Jameson	+1.1
19	7-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+0.9
20	8-12	CO ST	UC DAV×4	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.5
21	9-12	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.0
22	10-12	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.4
23	11-12	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.7
24	11-13	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.3
25	12-13	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+1.3
26	12-14	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.3
27	13-14	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.4
28	13-15	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.4
29	14-15	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Mia Starr	+1.4
30	14-16	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.5
31	15-16	CO ST	UC DAV×3	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.5
32	16-16	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Kekua Richards		+2.6
33	17-16	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Mia Starr	+3.1
34	17-17	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+2.0
35	18-17	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Mia Starr	+2.4
36	18-18	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+2.1
37	19-18	CO ST	UC DAV	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Breeze Czapinski, Allie Caldwell	+2.6
38	19-19	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+2.3
39	20-19	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+2.8
40	20-20	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Serve err	UC DAV server		+2.5
41	20-21	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+3.8
42	20-22	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+3.3
43	21-22	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+1.9
44	21-23	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+2.5
45	21-24	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski		+2.3
46	21-25	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Ally Chandler		+0.8
Set 2
1	0-1	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Sophie Stephenson, Eve Wilson	+0.9
3	1-2	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.7
4	2-2	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Mia Starr	+1.1
5	2-3	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.8
6	3-3	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.8
7	4-3	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Karsyn Fetzer	+1.3
8	4-4	UC DAV	CO ST×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+0.9
9	4-5	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski	blk Ella Stowell, Eve Wilson	+1.2
10	4-6	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Erin Debiec, Eve Wilson	+1.1
11	4-7	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski	blk Eve Wilson, Ella Stowell	+0.9
12	5-7	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.6
13	5-8	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
14	5-9	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+0.8
15	6-9	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.5
16	6-10	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
17	6-11	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski		+0.6
18	6-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.5
19	7-12	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.3
20	7-13	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.3
21	7-14	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Breeze Czapinski	blk Kekua Richards, Halle Jameson	+0.3
22	8-14	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Demi Cole	set Mia Starr	+0.2
23	9-14	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.4
24	9-15	UC DAV	CO ST×5	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
25	9-16	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Sophie Stephenson	+0.3
26	9-17	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
27	9-18	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+0.1
28	9-19	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Eve Wilson		+0.0
29	10-19	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.0
30	11-19	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Erin Debiec	+0.0
31	11-20	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.0
32	11-21	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
33	12-21	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.0
34	13-21	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+0.0
35	13-22	UC DAV	CO ST	Attack err	Mia Starr	blk Eve Wilson	+0.0
36	14-22	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+0.0
37	14-23	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
38	14-24	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+0.0
39	15-24	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Demi Cole	set Mia Starr	+0.0
40	16-24	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.0
41	16-25	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	CO ST	UC DAV×3	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+0.4
2	2-0	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Ally Chandler, Isabella Umpierre	+0.6
3	3-0	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.7
4	3-1	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.4
5	3-2	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Eve Wilson, Halle Jameson	+0.6
6	4-2	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.5
7	4-3	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.4
8	5-3	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.5
9	6-3	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Karsyn Fetzer	+0.7
10	6-4	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
11	6-5	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Mia Starr	+0.7
12	7-5	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Mia Starr	set Breeze Czapinski	+0.5
13	7-6	UC DAV	CO ST×6	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.5
14	7-7	CO ST	CO ST×6	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gianna Bogan	+0.7
15	7-8	CO ST	CO ST×6	Ace	CO ST server	aced Breeze Czapinski	+0.6
16	7-9	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Hayden Grimes	+0.6
17	7-10	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Hayden Grimes	+0.5
18	7-11	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Mia Starr	blk Kekua Richards	+0.4
19	8-11	CO ST	UC DAV×3	Kill	Demi Cole	set Mia Starr	+0.3
20	9-11	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.5
21	10-11	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Kekua Richards		+0.6
22	10-12	UC DAV	CO ST×3	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.4
23	10-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gianna Bogan	+0.5
24	10-14	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Ximena Cordero Barr	+0.4
25	11-14	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.3
26	11-15	UC DAV	CO ST×7	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
27	11-16	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Halle Jameson, Kekua Richards	+0.3
28	11-17	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Halle Jameson		+0.2
29	11-18	CO ST	CO ST×7	Kill	Sophie Stephenson	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
30	11-19	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+0.1
31	11-20	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Kekua Richards, Halle Jameson	+0.0
32	11-21	CO ST	CO ST×7	Attack err	Gianna Bogan	blk Kekua Richards, Sophie Stephenson	+0.0
33	12-21	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Laela Burgess	+0.0
34	13-21	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Laela Burgess	+0.0
35	13-22	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Jaedyn Riley	+0.0
36	13-23	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Brooke Holman	set Halle Jameson	+0.0
37	14-23	CO ST	UC DAV	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.0
38	14-24	UC DAV	CO ST	Serve err	UC DAV server		+0.0
39	15-24	CO ST	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+0.0
40	16-24	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Breeze Czapinski	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+0.0
41	16-25	UC DAV	CO ST	Kill	Jaedyn Riley	set Jaedyn Riley	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UC Davis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.